Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons