Tag Archives: NFL Playoff Predictions

Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

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How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

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The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

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Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

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In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys: Wild Card Saturday Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys, Wild Card Saturday Pick: This is a tough one for me because either one of these teams can come out and drop a little nugget right down their collective pant legs, if you know what I mean. And while Dallas has proven their worth by smacking Philly twice already this season, on the road and at home, it’s hard for me to take the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite.

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I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, I’m just saying it’s tough for me to do it. The Cowboys have turned their “late season swoon” right around, winning their last three games, including handing the Saints their first loss of the season. But prior to the Dallas game, it was Philly playing like the best team in football, climbing from mediocre to a win away from a 1st round bye. What a difference a game makes, eh? Philly came out with no pop, got dominated on both sides of the ball, and now they are playing a first round game in Dallas as a 4 point underdog. Their biggest underdog spread of the season.

But that’s part of the reason I’m taking Philly. The spread is inflated because of the substantial beatdown Dallas put on the Eagles last week. The Cowboys are hardly the best team Philly has faced. Philly won 6 straight prior to losing in Dallas, and I don’t think there’s anyway the Eagles play as poorly as they did last week.

Now I’m throwing a little caution to the masses here, the Eagles have just one win all season long against a team with a winning record. And that team, Atlanta, didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7. Interesting, huh? I still like Philly, but be careful.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

New York Jets VS Cincinnati Bengals: AFC Wildcard Playoff Game Pick

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I got this game when the Bengals were favored by just a single point, a little while after they opened at -4, and before the line moved by up to -3. Right now, you can find the line anywhere between the Bengals being favored by 2-3 points. And as the line has moved around with haste and ferocity, the public percentage has moved around as well. Right now, the Bengals are seeing about 61% of the bets, but the early money was on New York. Not that any of that stuff matters.

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I wonder what this line would have been had the Bengals sat their starters for Sunday’s entire game. Even if the Jets had won easily, in that case, I think the Bengals would have been favored by a couple more points – but maybe not. Either way, it’s hard for me to put too much weight into one single game. The Bengals have played better with Cedric Benson running the ball. His strength and aggressiveness is a huge part of Cincinnati’s offense, and he’ll be back on the field this week, that should help the Bengals get things going. And while Cincinnati definitely got pushed around by the Jets solid run-defense, it’s hard for me to foresee that happening again this Sunday.

Both these teams are good, both are tough, and both bring it on both sides of the ball. The difference in these two teams is at quarterback where the Bengals have Carson Palmer and the Jets have a rookie, Mark Sanchez. That give the Bengals the advantage in my book. When you add that to the reality that Cincinnati played their worst football of the season last week in New York, and the Jets played one of their best all around games all season long, I think you get a Bengals victory at home. Extremes like that often have a way of evening themselves out. It’s tough to beat up a good football team twice in one year, let alone twice in one week.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)