Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers MNF Free Pick: Despite thinking the Ravens are better than Green Bay in most facets of the game (falling short in only the passing column), I also think Baltimore is a terrible match-up for the Packers. As you have probably figured out, match-ups are a big part of my game, I don’t just take the better team or the team with the better record or the team with the better defense or, well, you get the picture. I like to see how teams match-up: how what the defense does well will effect the offense, how what the offense does well will effect the defense. Well, all that jazz has me leaning on the Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Both teams, on average, score right around a touchdown more than their opponents. The Packers are 7-4, the Ravens are 6-5. This game means more to the Ravens who would put themselves in a very tough spot if they fell to 6-6. They’d basically have to win out just to have a chance at the playoffs. Green Bay is 6-4-1 ATS, Baltimore is 6-5. 55% of the betting public likes Green Bay.

This is what I like about Baltimore. I think Baltimore’s rushing attack will do more damage than Green Bay’s run game, if only because they actually make a commitment to run the ball. When Green Bay gets out-rushed, they are 0-2 in their last 10 games. When Baltimore out-rushes their opponent, they are 4-2 on the season (losses to only Peyton and Tom). The Packers beat up on teams that give them time to throw, the Ravens don’t give anyone time to throw. When hurried, the Packers offense struggles. This should be a close one, but I like the points and I think Baltimore upsets Green Bay on the road.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers