Tag Archives: Atlanta Falcons

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 8 2009

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So, 7-6 isn’t the glorious same as 10-3 but it’s a winning week nonetheless – yet another winning week, and the season continues to be good. Week 8’s preview is short and sweet, but you’ll see 7 winners and 6 that didn’t go so well. Here goes…

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Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints: (WINNER)  “It’s Monday Night Football, these are two good football teams, it’s an NFC South rivalry game, the Saints are coming off a lucky comeback win, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss, 12 points is just too much on that stage with those circumstances.  I know the big favorites have dominated the season thus far, but games like this just don’t get 12 points – that’s way too many.” I hope everyone going with the Saints learned a valuable lesson, no matter how good you are, the value can easily fall with the challenger.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) “Now it’s very hard to beat a good opponent twice in the same season, but I just don’t see these two teams as equals.” I think that’s what it came right down to. The Packers have some great pieces, but the Vikings have a better offense and a better defense, and they showed that by beating the Packers twice in as many tries.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3): (WINNER) It’s awkward, but Vince Young wins. His numbers aren’t great, but with a rushing attack like the Titans have, and now teams have to pay attention to Vince, that just opens up the run game for the Titans. Vince didn’t run for tons of yards, but him being a threat gave Chris that little extra room he needed – either that or the Jaguars are just brutal defensively – either one, got this one right on.

Oakland Raiders (+17.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “The Chargers aren’t a great football team. They aren’t in the Patriots, Giants, Colts, Saints, Vikings, type group. That pretty much makes them a bad-value-bet as a double digit favorite. When that double digit favorite moves over 3 scores (a couple touchdowns and a field goal) they move even farther away from value and into a whole new category of auto-fade. Can the Chargers beat the Raiders by 3 touchdowns? You bet. It’s just not a great bet to happen.” Like I said, the Chargers aren’t one of the best teams in football, and are basically an auto fade as a HUGE dog like there were on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10): (LOSS) “Many sharp bettors see this game as great value for the Panthers. They have a rushing attack that should be able to get some yards against an Arizona front 7 that has basically eliminated rushing attacks all season long (ranking #1 in stopping the run) and Arizona is coming off a huge win, almost surely ready for down game. And this line, in my opinion, is too close to wager too much, but I like the Cardinals despite the inflated spread.” So, everything except that last part pretty much spot on. The Panthers did run on that vaunted Cardinals defensive front, but even more surprising was the fact that their defense suckered Warner into a half a million turnovers. If John Fox (or whomever is in charge of the Panthers offense) doesn’t get in the way of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, this team can do some damage going forward.

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5): (LOSS) The Lions, in my opinion, have hit a new low. Sure, you say they’ve won a game, and that’s true, but last year they didn’t lose to the worst team in football. This year they did, well, they lost to Steven Jackson, and Jax is the greatest player on the worst team in football. I watched a lot of this game, because I’m a little bit sick, it was just as painful as it seemed.

San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER)  “I liked the 49ers at -12 to start the week, but this one has a chance of getting to 14 points. Oh, that would make me feel so good. Still, 13 is a good number to get past as well, that way a touchdown and a couple field goals up still keeps me in the money. An out right win would surprise me, but don’t put it past the 49ers, staying within 13 seems like a good bet to me.” The bottom line is, and this should be universal, you don’t give a good team nearly two touchdowns. Say what you want about the Niners, but I’m thinking that by years’ end, you’ll come around, you’ll label them a good team. They proved their worth while holding Peyton without a passing TD, but some key injuries might hurt them a little.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3): (LOSS) The Jets dominated this game offensively, but the Dolphins had Ted Ginn Jr.  – NOw lately that has been a bad thing to have, dropped passes, basically unreliable and almost a liability because defenses hardly have to get in his way because he’ll drop the passes all by themselves. But this week he was a kick returner, and on one return he was the sole reason for the touchdown. They say it’s the blocks and the lanes, but Ginn Jr. sat in one place, had 4 tackles go past, and went from 0-60 in about .5 seconds. It was dirty. Those special teams’ covers will kill a cover, just ask the Jets who played well both defensively and offensively.

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) Am I wrong about the Giants? I know Ellie is back in full force, but is this team really going to break my balls a fourth week in a row? I might just take them again. The Eagles have showed me some strength against a solid defense, they are really playing well, I’m sure that will come back to haunt me soon.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) The Broncos ran into a buzz saw Ravens defense that was tired of being labeled “losing their dominance” and they certainly got handled. It was a close game at half, but that kick off return TD reared it’s head again, and from then on the Ravens put it to the Broncos hard. I guess Josh McDaniels had to lose one sooner or later.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) It took a quarter or two, but the Texans just started handling the Bills. Buffalo is an absolute mess and Houston proved they can win running the ball as well, even if it’s with Ryan Moats. That’s right Moats blew up the Bills’ weak spot, run defense, while Matt Schaub took a back seat to get the W. Houston won easily.

Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (LOSS) The Browns have lost it, maybe even Raiders style. I didn’t know what I was getting myself into, the Bears -14 seemed like suicide, but I have to realize going forward that some numbers look bad but some opponents look worse. Even Matt Forte ran well in this one – we’ll see how it goes next time out for Jay Cutler and the boys.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much.” That was a big difference in the game, the Hawks completion numbers were pretty high, but they had too many negative plays, and the Cowboys brought too much pressure for the Hawks to burn them deep. Matt just didn’t have enough time. Until the Hawks get healthy, pass rushing teams will eat them up.

Washington Redskins vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10): Here’s the deal, and I want to be very clear on this, I wouldn’t bet much on this game, and I won’t, if I do at all. Why you might ask? Anyone can see that the Redskins are struggling mightily with more things than anyone can count.

Offensively they just can’t score points, and defensively they give up big plays and despite playing pretty stout during stretches, they are consistently put in a bad place by their bad offense. Then there’s the coaching troubles, the questions in the organization, and how just recently the owner of the team publicly discussed his disappointment with the players, saying that they have “let everybody down” and I’m sure even more will come out about team-dysfunctional before the game kicks off in Atlanta – but this is a trap game for the Falcons if I’ve ever seen one, and defensively the Redskins have the talent to shut down the run and make some big plays if the Falcons aren’t focused.

The Falcons just came off a game against the Saints on Monday Night where they played very well against one of the league’s best teams, and if they walked away from that game feeling like they can play and compete against the best, a moral victory of sorts, then they might be in for a battle against the Redskins. A week off for Washington might have been enough to get their offense on the right page with the new play-caller.

Listen, I know what I see, and I see a beat and battered Redskins team flying into Atlanta this Sunday. But this one worries me a bit, just an eerie feeling I guess, one that will keep my risking just a little if any. With my Falcons pick, I’m warning you.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints MNF Free Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints MNF Free Pick: It’s Monday Night Football, these are two good football teams, it’s an NFC South rivalry game, the Saints are coming off a lucky comeback win, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss, 12 points is just too much on that stage with those circumstances. The value is with the Falcons. I know New Orleans has been great, just short of unbelievable when you talk about the different ways they’ve found to win football games, cover spreads, and involve every single part of their football team. They are awesome to watch. Drew Brees is one of the better football players I’ve ever watched and I’ve tuned into a couple football games over the years. The Saints have a trio of running backs that are all solid in their own different ways, sometimes downright dominant. But the Falcons have their own punch, surely. Matt Ryan is a very good young QB, and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner give him an impressive threesome of talent at skill positions. The Falcons lose something defensively in this match-up, but they will find ways to make plays to keep close. It’s a huge game for both teams, I like the Falcons coming off a beat down last week – that should give them enough of a kick in the tail pipe to be ready for the Saints. I know the big favorites have dominated the season thus far, but games like this just don’t get 12 points – that’s way too many.

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys Free Pick: The Cowboys have allowed #1 receiving options to run free most of the season, that doesn’t bode well for their chances at beating up on the Falcons. With Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White getting open and picking apart the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think the Cowboys’ ability to stop the run will have much to say about the outcome of this game. Plus, I get the feeling that the Falcons can run the ball on anyone if they really set their minds to it. But Matt Ryan should find open spaces, despite big names in Dallas’s secondary, and a couple great defensive line players, the pressure hasn’t been there this season, and thus opposing quarterbacks have had lots of time to throw the ball. If Matt gets time, his receivers will get open. Thinking that will happen, I like their chances to cover against the Boys.

NFL Week 3 Free Football Picks

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I’ve had a good start with my free football picks this season, no doubt about it, but now it gets tougher in the NFL. After giving all you readers some impressive picks over the first two weeks, I have a bit of a reputation to uphold, and of course, I’ll do my very best. I had one or two go my way last week, but a couple did me dirty as well. I see some lines looming large in Week 3, I’ll try to get my hands on them and see what I can do. A lot of tight games that could go either way this week, I’ve felt that way and gone 5-11, and I remember feeling that way when I submitted my perfect week a few years back. I’m taking 11 dogs this week, and I’m not sure if that’s such a good thing. I’m not trying to fade the public, even though it looks like that in a lot of instances. I just happen to see some inflated lines because of early season play, and some disrespect for some teams that have played pretty well despite ending up on the wrong side of scoreboards. Week 3 could be huge – going for three big winners in a row… Good luck to all!

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Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens: This game will be closer than two touchdowns. I like what the Ravens have done, opening up their playbook for Flacco and company, but I think we’ll get a pretty good performance out of the Browns, as the first two weeks have shown you can find lots of open spaces in Baltimore’s secondary. That should help Brady Quinn and company. Plus, I see the Ravens reverting back to their grind it out style, clock destruction mode, here. That helps this big spread stay covered. We’ll see, but give me the Browns.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7): There’s no doubt in my mind that the Giants are good, however, they played really poorly last week and won anyway. That’s a red flag for me, as always. They also haven’t stopped the run as well as in the past, another red flag against a Bucs team that runs really well. This game could go either way, but if the Bucs start out running well enough, I don’t think the Giants will take as many big chances. Both teams should run the ball a lot, taking time off the clock, and keeping this one closer to the spread. If Tampa loses they go 0-3, so there’s a lot to play for at home for the Buccos. Tough call, but I have to take the dog in this one.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams: Marc Bulger is bad – the Packers put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Rams are missing their first round pick starting offensive tackle, and they are the worst team in football despite those things. You can run against the Packers, and I see the Rams attempting to do that early and often. But the Packers lost last week, a loss here would put them at a discouraging 1-2 to start the season. More running game, more blitzing, more cowbell – the hat trick puts me on the Packers in St. Louis.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have trouble with big receivers like Dwayne Bowe, just ask Marques Colston. They also don’t play as mistake free without McNabb. The Eagles heavy blitz system should actually be a benefit to Matt Cassel and his quick decision, precision passing style of quarterbacking. If the Chiefs just put the ball in Larry Johnson’s hands early and often, I think they can take full advantage of the Eagles’ porous front 7. These things and that big spread, have me on the Chiefs to cover in Philadelphia. I know the Eagles are the better team, but KC has played two pretty tight games to start the year. Todd Haley will keep these guys competitive.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4): I think the Patriots come back strong after everyone starts counting them down and out after last week’s loss. They definitely haven’t played well to start the season, and I’m not sure this defense will be right all year, but I like Tom to get better and better as the season goes forward, and Atlanta has shown me that they can’t stop your best pass/catch option, even if they know it’s coming. I think Tom and Randy have a big day, bigger than Steve Smith last week. New England knows how to walk with a chip, and I think they play much better at home this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are good, but they are getting too much love after kicking around 2 of the bottom five teams in the league. The 49ers should be a good test. They are very physical, play mistake free football, and can bring it on both sides of the ball with an effective attack. Shaun Hill somehow manages to limit his mistakes despite locking onto receivers and generally throwing the ball into scary places. I think this game stays pretty low in the scoring department, and a 14-10 contest wouldn’t surprise me. Add that up and you get a cover – either way – I’ll take it.

Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3.5): I’ve been a huge Jaguars fan for sometime, I like their style and always think they are about to break out. In fact, I think MJD will be huge this week, but not huge enough. Last week the Texans got pretty lucky to get a late fumble, but they were by no means out of that game, and likely would have forced a kick on a 3rd and long situation. They did get the fumble, then got the field goal, then won the game. If Jacksonville can stay in this game early, it might be tough to Houston to pull away – but Houston is always just a play away from taking it to the house, and I think Jacksonville’s defense could end up on the wrong side of a couple late scores. I know Houston doesn’t play it safe late, going for the jugular when they get the chance – I like that to happen this week in a game that should see lots of offensive action.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions: I want to take the Lions, I really do, but they are still starting Matthew Stafford, and they intend to do so all season long. Should be a long one for Detroit fans. I still like the Redskins despite them getting me a loss last week as they failed to get into the end zone. They have some dynamic players, they have to break through sooner or later. I’m betting on sooner.

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Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Jets: Can the Titans keeps losing games by a field goal? I don’t know, possibly yes, but it’s tough to go against them here. I like the Jets a lot, I’ve said that since my season preview came out, but the Titans come into Week 3 winless after playing pretty solid football in Weeks 1 and 2. Going 0-3 is really tough, and I usually see a little extra fight from 0-2 teams, something I’ll expect to see this week from the Titans. A little urgency if you will. The Jets are coming off a huge emotional win against the Patriots, after they invested everything into that game. I expect a little bit of a let down in Week 3, just enough to get the Titans their first win.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (+6): This game is very hard for me. I know, everyone says ride the Saints, but I really don’t think they are as good as they’ve been playing – they are missing Pierre Thomas (or at least he’s not healthy) and the same can be said for Mike Bell. Reggie Bush is not a runner. Now I know everyone thinks that Brees can just throw every down and be putting up 50 points, but what has been so great about the Saints offense this season is that threat to run. They need it to be dominant. So, that being said, I’m going with the Bills. I think Buffalo has the right combination of accurate passing, and a solid rushing attack, and even a defense that is pretty solid. I think the Bills stun everyone and keep this game close. But like every Saints game, this one could get very ugly very fast.

Chicago Bears (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is too beat up everywhere, again. I don’t know what’s going on with the Hawks, the Northwest is a nice place, not too much action to get you injured, not too much sun to get you sunburnt, yet these guys are going down like dominoes. The Hawks do have a couple stud offensive linemen coming back, Walter and Spencer, but I still think the Bears will be too much for them. Defensively, Chicago won’t allow the Hawks to gain too much on the ground, and I’m not ready to count Matt Hasselbeck in on Sunday. This game should be close, not the blowout people are expecting, but I still think Chicago by 3 to 7 points is likely. Anything in that area is a cover, so I’ll take the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5): The Steelers’ offensive line is still brutal. The Bengals defense is a lot better than most people give them credit for. Last week’s win over Green Bay wasn’t a fluke, this team is pretty solid. Carson looked good last week, and the Steelers secondary has given up a lot of yardage early in the year, getting thrown on a lot by the Titans and Bears, of all super passing attacks. This is a great rivalry, and I like 4.5 points at home. The Steelers haven’t shown me that they are a team ready to blow opponents out, so giving up that many points on the road seems like great value to me.

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Oakland Raiders: I have taken the Raiders two weeks in a row, and they have set me free giving me victory after victory. The problem is, I think the Raiders get a tough assignment this week, a Broncos team that hasn’t given up much on the ground and can really take advantage of some mis-thrown balls by Mr. Russell, a guy that hasn’t completed even 40% of his passes this season. Kyle Orton doesn’t make big mistakes, and while that might be frustrating fantasy owners of guys like Eddie Royal, this isn’t a fantasy column, and I only see wins and losses. Orton can win. He can definitely win against an offense that needs freebies to stay close. The Raiders have a decent rushing attack, but the Broncos have the guys to put 8 in the box and still shut down the pass. I think they go to 3-0, as crazy as that sounds.

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers: I don’t know what’s more likely to happen, the Dolphins starting 0-3 or the Chargers falling to 1-2, at home, to a team that has to fly across the US. The Chargers defense doesn’t look like a team ready to shut down the Dolphins rushing attack. Chad Pennington doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which should keep this game close. The Dolphins should have won last Monday Night in Indy, and while that really means nothing, you might see the ball bounce their way a little more in San Diego. This game should have lots of action, but I think it stays close, giving the value to the team getting nearly a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (+2): You all know, by now, how I feel about teams that should have lost last week only to pull out a win. Enter Indianapolis. The Colts not only did this last week, but they played like piss only to beat the Jaguars by 2 in Week 1. That’s two weeks in a row where they played mediocre at best, only to be undefeated walking into Week 3. Kurt Warner was back in action last week, completing just about every single ball he threw. I know the Colts don’t give up a lot through the air, but I think Kurt and company find a way to make that work at home this week, handing the Colts loss number one on the season.

Carolina Panthers (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys: It’s Monday Night, and while I think the Cowboys are a good team, I don’t know if they are 9 point favorite good, even against a Panthers team that hasn’t looked up for the test since the season started. Dallas has looked good against the run, but everyone’s been able to throw on them, and a couple big plays from Steve Smith should cover this game right up. Monday Night always seems to have close games, and Dallas really hasn’t looked brilliant in any game this season. Taking the points!

Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

2009 NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins

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These are my over/under predictions for the NFL Season. I have every team listed in alphabetical order, with their over/under line and the total predicted wins. Nobody can win them all – unless of course you’re those bunch of Dolphins that sold their soul so they could get interviewed midway through the season and claim they were the best ever. I hate that ish. All my lines come from TheGreek.com.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (Under 8.5 wins -130) (7): Every team in the AFC South is tough, and could easily take down the Cardinals. The NFC South is getting tougher as well, despite St. Louis’s presence in the division. Arizona is not as deep this season, and come in overrated in 2009. They are a couple injuries away from a very tough post-Super Bowl hangover.
  2. Atlanta Falcons (Over 8.5 wins +110) (10): The Falcons face a tough challenge, getting back to the playoffs out of the NFC South. These teams rotate like a damn merry-go-round from year to year, and it’s a pretty stacked division as well. Any one of these teams could turn in a solid year, but I don’t expect much out of Tampa. The Panthers rarely put out 2 good seasons in a row, and while the Falcons may have a tougher schedule, last year’s young team has enough to get back to the playoffs in 2009.
  3. Baltimore Ravens (Over 8.5 wins -150) (10): KC, Denver, and Oakland. There’s three. Cleveland twice.. Four, Five. At the very least, one against Cincinnati. Six. Detroit. Seven. So they need to win two more games over the course of the season to get over – sure, I’ll take that bet. The Bengals should be better, and build off a solid defensive performance late last season, but the Ravens are still a top 2 team in the AFC North.
  4. Buffalo Bills (Under 7.5 wins +110) (7): The Buffalo Bills lost a great offensive lineman, which just happened to be one of their strengths last season. They won 7 games in 2008, against powerhouses like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos. With the NFC South on their schedule in 2009, the wins shouldn’t pile up quite so easily. TO is a big talent, but I’m not sure he tightens up that defense. I’ll go under.
  5. Carolina Panthers (Under 8.5 -145) (8): The Panthers ran the ball all over everyone last season, and they still played a heap of close games. Using the reasoning that they never play lights out two seasons in a row is stupid, and I won’t do that, I’ll just write about how that is usually the case. That is usually the case. There. The AFC South “NEVER” goes to the same team two seasons in a row. They lost some defense, might have trouble stopping the run, and have some luck about to evaporate as well.
  6. Chicago Bears (Under 8.5 +135) (7): Jay Cutler gets them more wins? Maybe. But this team will really rely on stopping the pass and Tommie Harris’s health. I don’t think they will be able to stop the pass, and Harris has yet to look like the guy that couldn’t be blocked rushing the interior a couple seasons ago. Urlacher is getting old, and while Briggs is still in his prime, he can’t tackle them all. Packers and Vikings get better in 2009, Detroit too, this division just got tougher.
  7. Cincinnati Bengals (Over 7.5 wins +125) (8): I’m not buying into the Bengals getting over .500 but their schedule looks easier than most, and I’m predicting a finish right on the even mark. The Ravens and Steelers are very tough defensively, and will likely eat the Bengals alive, but Cinci gets to play Cleveland twice. That’s nice. This defense is getting better, and while this is actually a tough pick for me, the Bengals’ schedule is in their favor, and I am predicting a late push gets them to even or better.
  8. Cleveland Browns (Under 6.5 wins -130) (5): The Browns stink. They won 10 fluke games in 2007, just enough to get their head guy some more money from the Brownies, and now they have Man-jina trying to run the brown gongshow circus in Cleveland. They have no gimmy wins this season – none, they aren’t good enough and no college teams are on their schedule. Their best offensive weapon drops touchdowns, and other passes to boot. They will likely be starting a first year starter at QB, and their running back is 29 going on 40. Defensively they have 3 or 4 good players, but no depth at all. I say they get lucky and win 5. Sam Bradford, step right up!
  9. Dallas Cowboys (Under 9.5 wins -130) (8): Call me crazy, but I think the Cowboys struggle in this division. They lost a great weapon when TO was let go. They have a nice running back trio, but an aging offensive line might cause trouble when injuries hit. A couple of their “easy games” happen to be in very tough places to play (Denver and KC), and the NFC East is probably the toughest division in football. I think the Eagles (even after losing some key defenders) and Giants (even with Eli at QB) are two very tough teams and the Redskins are no slouch, either. Drawing the NFC South makes it that much tougher, so tough that a 10 win season seems less likely than .500 – with a game to play with, I’ll take the under.
  10. Denver Broncos (Under 6.5 wins -115) (5): No love for Josh McDaniels and his Broncos I guess. But remember, this team still plays against the Chiefs and Raiders, two improving squads? maybe, but still KC and Oakland… Lets just say they get 3 of those 5 contests. They still need 4 more wins to beat this under. Look at their schedule, they draw one of the toughest stretches in football going up against Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, SD again, and the Giants… Sounds like 8 losses to me. Lets say they get one of those games. They still need 3 wins against a “rest of schedule” that shows the Eagles and Colts. I wanted to say over here, really I did, but that middle of the year looks like a Korean class learning how to pronounce their toughest letter to master.
  11. Detroit Lions (Over 4.5 wins -135) (7): This one is pretty easy in my opinion. Sure, the Lions lost them all last year, but they aren’t a talentless bunch – not by any means. Their new staff brought in some solid schemes, and I expect nice things from this offense if Daunte gets to run the show. Defensively, they are still challenged, but they have made some moves that should allow them come together. There are wins to be had on that schedule, and being the “worst team ever” has to motivate a bunch of guys that get paid to be competitive. Laugh now, but the Lions improve in 2009.

Come back later in the week for my next 2009 NFL Regular Season Predictions segment. I’ll follow the alphabet one more time, going from Green Bay all the way to New York…

NFL Free Picks: Week 11

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9 in 9, 10 in 10, does that make 11 in Week 11 a lock? Hardly. However, I’m on to something here and we’ll see if I can’t make it work three weeks in a row. Here goes something big…

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: New England has lost just once to the Jets since 2004 – that’s 9 wins and 1 loss. New England has taken the last four contests, and the games haven’t been closer than 9 points. That being said, I don’t think the Patriots have been this decimated by injuries since, well, forever. The Jets come in 2-2 on the road, a beatdown at the hands of San Diego and a pathetic loss to the Raiders, but a couple solid wins over Miami and Buffalo. They are winners of 3 straight, and they seem to have their running attack going pretty good lately. I don’t think the Patriots will be able to run against Kris Jenkins and his marry men. I also know that the Patriots can’t gang up to stop just one part of the Jets offense, as the run and the pass are both options for Brett and the Jets. This is a tough one for me, that’s right folks, I’m not beaming with confidence on my side here, but I’ll take the healthy road team in this one. That extra half a point will make me a winner in case of a field goal loss, and that’s enough for me in this even battle. I also like the thought of New York splitting this series. I don’t think this game will have many fireworks, so don’t expect a repeat of the Browns/Broncos from last Thursday night. Both of these teams play defense.

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): Once again, if the Falcons can run, they’ve shown they can win. They have just three losses on the season, and those games were against Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and Carolina – three very good run defenses. The Broncos can’t bring pressure, they definitely can’t stop the run, and the can’t run the ball either. Don’t sleep on the Falcons just because they are the Falcons – this is one of the better stories in football, and a Mike Smith team will always take advantage of turnovers. The Broncos are bound to give the ball away a few times. Also – the Falcons are undefeated at home – lots working in their favor here.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): Like the Falcons and the Panthers, the Dolphins have shown that if they can run on you, they will beat you. But by 10? 11? 12? That makes it a little tougher – so while I’m surely on the Dolphins to oust the Raiders for a surefire Survivor pool pick here, I need more reasons to bet on them as a big favorite. I know that the Raiders are 1-3 as an underdog of 9 points or more. Their losses come to San Diego (lost by 10 in a 9 point spread, but it was a late LT touchdown that did it, a TD that was unneeded really), Baltimore (beat 29-10, easily), and Carolina last week in a game they had covered until a late field goal put the Panthers up 11. So, overall, they’ve actually played well as a big dog this year. The Dolphins have been a favorite in 3 games, they are 2-1 but 1-2 ATS. Last week they barely beat the Seahawks, they lost to Baltimore 4 weeks ago, and they beat Buffalo at home as a 1 point favorite 3 weeks ago. The Dolphins do play well against bad rushing defenses, though, upsetting the broncos by 9 in Denver and taking down the Chargers by a touchdown in Miami. Still, the Fins have won by 10 or more just once all season long, and while the Raiders are indeed bad, they have played better defense lately and haven’t played that bad on the road this season. I also don’t think the Dolphins should be a double digit point favorite against anyone in the league, besides maybe the Rams. I hate taking the Raiders, they have so many things going wrong that they are never a safe bet. After nearly losing last week, I think the Dolphins come out with a sense of urgency, and having the Raiders fly across the country to play them in the morning doesn’t hurt either – Oakland hasn’t been so hot crossing the midwest and they’ve lost 6 of their 9 games by 10 or more points. Take Miami. One more thing, Al Davis just took play calling away from the offensive coordinator – what a joke – who is he giving it to then? Wow.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: When Houston can run, they’ll be alright. Sure, the Colts came back late in the game against the Steelers, and beat a very good PIttsburgh team on the road – they also got a couple gimmies and managed a 3 point win at home against the Patriots two weeks ago. That’s two wins in a row – and now everyone and their ESPN analyst wants to announce that the Colts are back. Please. They still look sloppy and not as confident as they’ve been. That worries me against a Texans team coming off a really bad game, a Texans team that is pretty decent and in big trouble. What does that mean? That means they’ll fight. The Texans do alright against teams that don’t stop the run really well. They barely lost to Jacksonville, they barely lost to Indy (by 3 and 4 points respectively), and their 4 other losses come against very good defensive fronts. The Colts will need to play very well to cover a 10 point spread against the Texans, and I don’t see that happening. They’ve played 2 good games all season long, last week against PIttsburgh and 5 weeks ago against Baltimore. 2 good games. That’s it. I’ll take the Texans and 10, thank you very much.

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: The Bears have won three straight games in Green Bay, and have taken 5 of the last 6 against the Packers. Interesting. All of those games were against Brett Favre and the Packers, though. Aaron Rodgers will be happy to get out of that Dome – not only was the pass rush from Minnesota causing him to run for his life, but it looked like the lights in that Dome were playing evil tricks on his perception as well. Green Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games, including two home losses (24-27 to Atlanta; and 16-27 to the Cowboys). However, Green Bay has played well enough to win in all four of their most recent games, losing their last two contests by a total of 4 points. If they would have pulled their offensive coordinator’s head out of his own ace, they probably would have beaten the Vikings last week. However, they seemed happy with a 50+ yard field goal to win it. How happy are they now? Taking all things into account, I have to go with the Bears, despite the fact that I really liked the Packers coming into the season. Chicago may have 4 losses, but all 4 came to good teams, and 3 of those losses were by a field goal or less (Atlanta by 2, Tampa by 3, and Carolina by 3). Their only “big loss” came last week to Tennessee by 7, and it was closer than that. I see Chicago taking full advantage of the Packers weak run defense, and while I hope Green Bay gets to 5-5, I like the Bears and 5 points.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): This is an interesting one, because there are some conflicting numbers – but I’ll get to the bottom of it. Here goes what I see: The Chiefs have played good football lately. Say what you will about this 1-8 team, they’ve taking the Jets, Bucs, and Chargers to the limit over the past three weeks, and all of it has been done without the guy everyone said was their best player to start the year. They did get killed by Carolina and Tennessee just before that, but these New Orleans Saints are a lot less like the Titans and Panthers, and a lot more like the Denver Broncos. They aren’t that bad defensively, but they are a team that can’t really run the rock, depend solely on Drew Brees’ arm, and have a secondary that has the stamina and staying power of the first guy you fight on Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out. That said, whenever they’ve been dogs of 9 points or less, they’ve gotten hammered. Basically, they haven’t thrived when given a shot in hell to win the game. Then you have New Orleans, a team that has absolutely taken advantage of the leagues “not so elite” teams. They beat Oakland 34-3 and smoked San Francisco in a game they ended up winning by 14. I think KC would fit into that group of the “not so elite”. But Tyler Thigpen has been so good, the Saints have been bad, even worse on the road, and despite all the injuries and the losing, Herman Edwards has the Chiefs playing as good a football as they’ve played this year. They also have played pretty well against Pass-heavy teams this year. Ah, forget it, I’ll take the Chiefs in this one +5.5, but I bet if YOU wait long enough you can get 6.

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: I’m all for taking the Giants, I’ve done my fair share of it and reaped the benefits this season. However, I see this game being within a touchdown, so I have to take the Ravens with that nice 7.5 line I got. Despite winning against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, the Giants didn’t play very well against that stellar defense. I think that the Ravens will be the second team to shut down the Giants rushing attack, and while Baltimore will have their fair share of trouble trying to score against New York, their running game will give them enough balance and short yardage conversions to keep this game close. Baltimore has played 1 bad game so far this year, a 31-3 drubbing at the hands of the Colts. Their other two losses were to Pittsburgh by an overtime field goal, and the Titans by a regulation field goal. Those last two teams are on the same level as the Giants, this game should be close as well.

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: An interesting match-up here. The Panthers have dominated as a big favorite this season, (which is rare for them), covering spreads of 10 (Oakland), 9.5 (Kansas City), and 7 (Atlanta). However, look at these tricky Lions for a second and you’ll see that in every game that they’ve been dogged by double digits, they’ve covered easily. What else? Everyone of those “big dog” ATS wins have come on the road. At Chicago they almost pulled one off and ended up losing by 4 (they were 12.5 point dogs), at Houston they were 11 point dogs and lost by a touchdown, and in Minnesota they were 13 point dogs and they lost by 2 and only because of a phantom pass interference penalty. I’ve said all year long that if the Panthers can run they they are one of the best teams in football. Conflicting stats? You bet. But I’m going to forget stats this week and just take the team that is winless thus far against a team that historically struggles at home as a big favorite. Plus, the Lions are getting 15 freaking points here – that’s a good thing if you’re betting the dog. Go Daunte, go!!!

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): Boy, the Vikings sure are tempting fate this year. four of their five wins have come by a touchdown or less and they’ve only lost one game by more than a touchdown (against Tennessee, weird). But away from Minnesota, the Vikes are just 1-3. Playing in Tampa Bay where the Bucs are 4-0, I have to say I like the home team. Tampa Bay’s defense may not be big, but they are playing very well against the run,  and have beaten every run-heavy team they’ve faced. (They did lose to Dallas without Tony Romo, but that game was so flukey and weird, I don’t know what to call it). Both teams are coming off of wins in which they didn’t play very well, but Tampa is coming off a bye. Minnesota should have lost to Green Bay last week, and you all know how I feel about teams that should have lost but won – bet against them in a hurry. I’m taking the Bucs.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have lost 8 games this year (1 win), and in 7 of those 8 losses, they’ve been outscored by a touchdown or more. The Eagles are really good, good enough to be a 3 point favorite against the Giants last week and play pretty well down the stretch. They’ve lost 4 games this year, all to pretty good teams. Washington, Chicago, Dallas, and last week New York (Giants). The Eagles have been favored by a touchdown or more 3 times, they are 3-0 in those games. The Eagles dominate teams that don’t have good run defenses – like, fore arguments sake, the Bengals. This is a HUGE spread for a 5-4 road team to cover, but I like my chances with Philly this week. What’s a bye week going to do for the Bengals besides make them realize how pathetic they really are? No longer winless, I don’t think they have a chance to do anything worthwhile against the Eagles.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): The Rams beat the Redskins and then the Cowboys (or the shell of the Cowboys without Tony Romo). That’s it. Over the last two games they’ve been absolutely embarrassed by the Cardinals and then the Jets. The 49ers also have 2 wins, but I like the way they played on Monday Night. Despite all the penalties and the turnovers, they fought until the last second and finished 2 yards shy of a huge upset. The Rams don’t pass well, and thus they won’t be able to take advantage of the Niners shaky secondary. I actually like San Francisco’s run defense enough to take them in a game where they are as big a favorite as they’ve been all season long. Go Samari Mike!

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck is back this week, or so the fortune teller says. Regardless, my magical bald brother Matt or not, I don’t think the Hawks match up well against the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a game that should have snapped them back to reality, and they have a passing attack that should pay dividends, even against a solid Hawks secondary. Too much size for the little Hawk corners. The Cardinals have been favored in 5 games this season – they are undefeated in those contests. That’s just a stat, and honestly, it means nothing to me except it helps me argue my point. Which is this – to start the season I didn’t expect the Seahawks to win the West- I thought there was a Cardinal team that was better than them. That was when the Hawks were relatively healthy. Right now, they are still beat up, and while they have some players coming back, they still aren’t as good as the Cards. The Cardinals may be 2-3 on the road, but they’ve played well away from home. They lost to Carolina by just 4 points, and while they took 6 touchdowns from Brett Favre right on the chin, they played within a touchdown of a tough Redskin team in Washington. I know Seattle is historically solid at home in that rainy and unbelievably loud stadium, but throw history out the door and while you’re at it, look at how much better the Cards are than the Hawks. They’ll stuff the Hawks rushing attack and make plays against a stagnant Hawks offense. I’ll take the Cards – even with 70% of the public following me here.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: I would love to take the Jaguars here. The Titans can’t win them all, and despite the Titans defensive presence, they can be run on. But, that doesn’t mean the Jaguars can run on them. Jacksonville is still missing offensive linemen, and 4 wins against bad rushing defenses doesn’t a win against the Titans make… errr.. something like that. Basically, here it is. The Titans have struggled a little bit against legit passing attacks, Indy, Green Bay – they won, but they struggled. They also struggled against a couple very good run defenses in Chicago and Baltimore. THey won, but they struggled. The Jaguars happen to be nothing that the Titans struggle with. Jacksonville has a reputation of being a good run defense, but that’s just not true this season. Look for Tennessee to keep on winning this week in Jacksonville – that’s the only bet that makes sense.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): I wrote a nice write-up about why I was taking the Chargers, and then I did a little bit more research and realized that San Diego’s defense isn’t good enough to upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost last week to Indy, but they played awesome defensively. They should be too much for the Chargers offense, especially against the run. I like Pittsburgh here. I’m trying real hard not to think too far into this one.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): The Redskins haven’t played well over their last 4 games. They are 2-2, but their wins come against Cleveland by 3 and Detroit by 8. They lost to St. Louis and then to PIttsburgh two weeks ago. They looked lost against the Steelers defense. Tony Romo comes back this week, and you can bet the Cowboys are ready to make a playoff push after struggling without their signal caller. I even like the Cowboys talent level. But I can’t even think about taking the Cowboys as a favorite in Washington. The Redskins have done enough to show me that they can pick apart a bad secondary, and there has to be some rust on Tony’s Cowboy machine. Look for the Redskins to come back with a huge win that should cripple the Boys in Week 11.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

Free NFL Picks: Week 9

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Week 8 gave me one of my few losing records of the year, but there were some crazy things that went down to get me in the gotcha. This week there are some games I fancy, and some I am just barely leaning one way or the other. Like always, I’ll let you know. 

New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: This is an interesting one. The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game. 

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should no be favored by two scores against anyone in the league. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Fitzpatrick complete’s just about 60% of his passes, he has 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, he is heading up a team that doesn’t believe in him, and it’s basically crushing news every time he comes onto the field because it’s a reminder that Carson is still out with an arm ouchy. Sounds like a recipe for success. On the other hand, the Jags just lost to the freaking Browns, at home, in a game that they needed to win. They are now 3-4, tied with the Colts and Texans and 4 games back of the Titans in their own division. They need to get things straight right away. Jacksonville has beaten the Bengals in 9 out of the 10 times these two teams have played since 1998. The Jags are 7-2-1 ATS over that time period. I’m not one for history calling the shots, but there’s lots of things working against the Bengals here, not to mention the Jags just lost a big game at home, and they are 2-1 on the road this season with wins in Denver and Indianapolis. Yeah, I like the Jaguars by 10 in this one for a small wager. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): I don’t know what to think about Cleveland except I think they are just about as good as the Ravens, they are at home, they will likely be a .500 team this year, and this game would split the season series with Baltimore. I like all those things working in my favor here, and I see both teams being 4-4 after Week 9’s action. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs can’t run and they only put up a reasonable fight if teams hand them turnovers like free cans of spam at the light house mission. Jeff Garcia won’t be doing that this week in KC, especially not after getting beat by a hapless Dallas team. I expect a lot of running game action this time around, and that’s not coming from KC. Tyler Thigpen’s chances of building off last week’s big game look really bad, as the Bucs will key in on the young quarterback. Tampa is a lot better than they were last week and the Chiefs are a lot worse – in that match-up I’ll always take the Bucs side. 

Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Hmmm… Really good passing offense versus a really bad secondary. Vikings are coming off a bye week going head to head at home against the Texans team that is winners of three straight… But all home games. The Texans are Ofer on the road this season, and that’s not abnormal for the, they are historically a brutal road team. Minnesota hasn’t been playing well at all. They beat the Lions because of a TERRIBLE pass interference call. They beat the New Orleans Saints some how some way, I watched that game and I still can’t figure it out. It seemed like the Saints hammered the Vikes. They gave up 48 points (a lot via the secondary and such) to the Bears and lost that game. They’ve basically played like poo in their last four games are are 2-2 in those contests – so that’s one thing they have going for themselves. In the end, I think it’s Dunta Robinson’s recent return that pays dividends for the Texans in their first road win of the year, a big upset. With another corner that can lock down defenders, the Texans can use their safeties to help against the run, and that should be just enough for them to cover. 

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Cardinals are a bad road team. They have been for a long time, and that trend doesn’t seem to be changing much this season in terms of their win/loss record (1-3). However, you have to consider their competition and how they’ve played on the road as well, because close losses to good teams need to look better than close wins against bad teams (at least to the bettor). The Cardinals lost road games to Washington, the Jets, and the Carolina Panthers last week. Except for the offensive blow-up by Brett Favre and the Jets (6 TDs for the old man), the Cards have played tight with their solid opponents, losing by a touchdown in Washington and by just 4 in Carolina (covering the spread last week). The Rams, on the other hand, have to be considered a new team since Jim Haslet took over because they’ve played much different. They ousted the Redskins in Washington, then slapped around a injury decimated Cowboys team two weeks ago at home. Last week they lost in New England, but without Steven Jackson, and the game was tight late (they covered). Still, I think the Cardinals are that much better than the Rams, and while Arizona is used to losing and falling apart when it matters most, I have to believe that they win this week in St. Louis. At -2.5, a field goal win still gets me a W, and thus I’ll be making a small play on the favored road Cardinals here. 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I would stay away from this line. That’s my suggestion. That being said, I like the Titans by 3 in this one. Their defense is too good, but Aaron Rodgers has one heck of a cannon, and that will test the Titans secondary. Green Bay hasn’t been able to run all year, their yards per carry is gross, and the Titans won’t help that stat improve. Kerry Collins doesn’t do enough to test the Packers secondary woes, but Green Bay’s run defense is basically piss this season. The Titans run with passion and efficiency. And they are absolutely committed to the run as well. The Packers are coming off a bye, and a first hand look at how the Titans secondary can be attacked, as Manning did a nice job in the first half last last Monday Night. There’s lots of things working every which way in this one, and the fact that Tennessee is 7-0 doesn’t help their cause in my book either. Nobody goes undefeated, remember that. The Titans are coming off a little bit of a short week, they are heavily favored, and they have yet to lose. Am I saying Green Bay pulls the upset? No, but there’s a chance. This is just a tough one for me, for the obvious reasons that I listed. Despite the records (4-3 to 7-0) I think these teams are fairly close in ability. I’m taking the Packers here, but you have my advice on betting this game. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: The Denver secondary was bad with Champ Bailey locking down one side, I can’t imagine how pathetic they’ll be without him for the next 6 weeks. They can’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, can’t even get close to stopping the run, and their offense relies almost solely on the passing game – which always puts a team at risk. MIami has played decent on the road, sans one bad loss to Arizona. They were up on Houston, and if it weren’t for some last minute heroics by Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, they would have won there. They smoked New England in Week 3. Three of their losses came to great run defenses, Arizona, the Jets, and Baltimore – and believe me when I say that Denver doesn’t belong in that group. I think Denver will put up points, and it’s possible that they jump up early and leave the Dolphins trying to do too much, but I have a feeling that Miami’s run-based attack and precision passing should keep the time of possession in their favor. That might be just enough for a big upset on Sunday. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode. Dallas played better defensively last week, but honestly, their offense didn’t play well enough for them to win. Dallas got some really bad calls falling in their favor, and that got them over the hump. I don’t like the Giants all that much, and unlike a lot of big names out there I don’t think they are underrated, quite the opposite. I just think that Dallas got beat last week and won the game – I never like that. I also don’t like the Cowboys offense at all right now. New York should win this one in the 24-10 range. 

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: Looking at it from way up here I see a Falcons team that is 1-3 on the road (though their tough road losses came against Philly, Carolina, and Tampa Bay – all solid squads). I see a Raider team that plays pretty well at home, beating the Jets two weeks ago, and playing really tight with San Diego before a late score put the Chargers up 10. The Falcons are 4-3, and they’ve beat some solid teams (Green Bay in Wisconsin) and Chicago two weeks ago at home, by 3 and 2 points respectively. The Raiders don’t stop the run well and don’t create many turnovers on defense. The Falcons only seem to get in trouble when their youth gets the best of them. I also like the Falcons more than the Raiders. This is a very tough one for me, but I’ll have to lean toward Atlanta. They’ve been solid when they can run, and the Raiders will let Mike Turner run. Oakland is not physical up front, and I think Matt Ryan can be effective enough to douse the Raider secondary. I’d stay away from this game, but with all things considered, it looks like Atlanta by a field goal. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people. Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league. The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal. 

New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: Call me nuts, but both of these teams are up and down so much that I can’t quite figure them out. New England is 5-2 and the Colts are 3-4, but they are eerily similar. Indy actually played pretty well on Monday Night, flailing like lemmings in the 4th quarter, but solid for the first three frames. New England barely took out a bottom tier St. Louis Rams team that was playing without their best player, Steven Jackson. But I see an advantage for the Patriots in Indy. Weird. The Pats have done solid work against teams that don’t have strong rushing attacks. The Chiefs, Jets, 49ers (only because Mike Martz is a tool), and Denver. Those are all wins for the Pats, and all teams that can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Their losses came to San Diego (a team you must respect on the ground) and MIami (Ronnie Brown went nuts on the Pats). Indy doesn’t have Addai, and even when they have had him, their run game has been blah this season. If the Pats can focus on one aspect, the pass or run, their defense is stronger. You know what is also weird here? Matt Cassel and Peyton Manning have disturbingly similar numbers. Matt’s 66% completion percentage is better than Manning’s 61% – Cassel gets 6.84 yards per attempt while Manning has 6.62. Cassel has thrown just 7 touchdowns to Manning’s 10, but he only has 6 picks to Manning’s 9. Cassel has a 6 point QB Rating advantage as well. Anyway, I’m not saying they’re the same guy, I’m just saying you should lay off killing Matt for his shortcomings, the kid is throwing pretty well. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): This one is tough for me because Jason Taylor is out for sure, and the Redskins are just dealing with a lot of ailments. I actually really liked the Redskins in this one at full health. Against teams I would consider good, Dallas and Philly and maybe even Arizona and New Orleans (though I don’t consider the Saints good, but you might) the Redskins are 4-0. On the other hand, PIttsburgh’s lone good win came against, I don’t know, Jacksonville? Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Houston? I like the Texans but can hardly consider them to be “good”. The Steelers lost to both the Giants and Eagles, and the Redskins will look to make that three in a row from the NFC East. There’s lots of love on the Steeler’s side right now, but I am taking the other half in this one. Take the Skins at home.