Tag Archives: Justin Gage

Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

Super Sleepers: Fantasy Football 2008

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Sleeper: A player that is either very young and or expectations are relatively low – for the most part this “unheard of” doesn’t get drafted in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts and is, more often than not, undrafted.

That’s right, all those sleeper articles led by Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Calvin Johnson, Earnest Graham and Thomas Jones are just flat out ridiculous. Sure, they may be undervalued now, but they are by no means sleeper – they were either good last year, are great rookie players, or were good prior to last season. My wifey (that’s right) even knows who McFadden and Calvin are – that should be deal breaker number one seeing if a player makes “sleeper” lists. Josh Morgan? No clue who that is – sign him up! Here they are, enjoy. The numbers in parenthesis are projections for the season.

Rookie Sleepers

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (140 carries 800 rush yards, 45 catches 450 receiving, 8TDs): In a PPR league this kid is a lock to put up startable stats week in and week out. He’s the fastest guy on the field every single time he steps on the turf. When I say a guy is a sleeper it means he has the chance to be startable for at least half of the season and he usually gets picked after Round 10. Chris has the upside of a starting running back – that’s my kind of sleeper.

2. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans (130 carries 600 rush yards, 30 catches 280 receiving, 4 TDs): For lack of a better option in Houston, Steve could end up getting about 15 touches a game. He’s already the scarriest and most dynamic rusher on the team, now he just has to get over the rookie jitters and the urge to bounce outside. Slaton was dominant two seasons ago in college, and believe me, he still has that ability. I’m not as high on him as I am on Chris, but Slaton’s small stature shouldn’t keep you from taking a chance on him. He has the makings of a good one cut runner.

3. Ryan Torain, RB, Denver Broncos (155 carries 750 yards, 7TDs): You know Selvin Young is going to fumble once or twice and Splinter is going to lose his marbles. That’s about when Ryan will be coming off of the injured list and stepping right into a nice little time share. Torain’s style reminds me of Ryan Grant and he could be a great option for a Denver attack that hasn’t had a tough runner in some time. He will likely miss the first 4-6 games but remember, Ryan Grant only started 10 games and what kind of impact did he have last season?

4. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos (55 catches 850 yards 6 TDs): First of all, I love Jay Cutler’s game. Second of all, Royal is already a starter in Splinter’s master plan, and he’ll stay with the #1 unit even after Marshall gets back. Royal has a lot of explosive potential and it looks like he’s going to get his fair share of chances. He’s basically not getting picked right now, but with Cutler and Marshall and Scheffler and a running game to worry about, Royal might just find himself with room to run and that’s a good thing for Fantasy owners.

5. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets (40 catches, 420 yards, 5 TDs): I’m basically relying on Brett to make a relationship with the young speedster out of Purdue. Honestly, Keller is much more of a receiver than a TE, but that’s great for Fantasy Football. Keller is a big match-up problem for most teams, and the fact that the Jets grabbed him early makes me think that they want him to get the ball. Coles and Cotchery will leave him all by himself with a safety to beat, and with his speed that’s very possible.

6. Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco 49ers (70 catches, 840 yards, 4 TDs or look at Shaun McDonald’s numbers last season): I know they are just pre-season stats, but 4 catches for 68 yards, then 5 catches for 114 yards and a TD, he’s a possible super Mike Martz unknown 3rd receiver – c’mon, he has to be on sleeper lists, right? Not yet, but he is now. Take this guy in the last round, watch every other owner in your league look at you like you’re a moron, and then manage to start him and beat other teams with his production. Its a fun game I call “Told you so, Bitches!”. Play it with the people you are closest to, it’s a blast. Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald – did you think they’d be fantasy relevant? Exactly.

Non-Rookie Sleepers

1. Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee Titans (67 catches 900 yards, 5 TDs) : I don’t know if I fully believe it, but apparently Vince Young is more accurate than ever. If Justin can improve on his 750 yards and two touchdowns he might just be fantasy worthy. I think Young will be a little better throwing the ball, and right now Gage is the only sure-thing receiver in the starting line-up. That’s worth a very late pick right there.

2. Devin Hester, WR, CHicago Bears (60 catches, 900 yards, 11 TDs): Call me a Hester fan, hell, make me the president of his fan club, I don’t care, the guy is electric with the ball in his hands. He sees the game at a high speed, and he can take angles and make cuts that didn’t previously exist. Right now he’s the #1 receiver in Chicago, and while that’s not too much to be excited about, it does mean that he’ll be targeted quite a bit. If Hester gets 10 targets a game I bet he scores double digit touchdowns. He’s getting picked way too late right now. People are calling him a “bust” potentially but that’s some awkward joke, right? I mean, he doesn’t get picked until after the 10th round, even if he has a bad year it’s not like you blew an early pick on him.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (3,300 yards, 22 TDs): The Packers may have been a little bit stubborn with Brett, but they didn’t get rid of the icon to give the reigns of this team to a guy without the ability to drive the sled. Rodgers has a great arm, a solid offensive line, and one of the best receiving corps in the entire league. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones – these guys are studs that do quarterback’s favors. Defenses will be focussed in on Ryan Grant and that rushing attack, and Aaron will get the best of them early.

4. D.J. Hackett, WR, Carolina Panthers (65 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs): I’ve always liked D.J. I’ve seen him play a lot and I always thought, when he was on the field, he was the best receiver in Seattle. If he stays healthy all season in Carolina he’ll bust those numbers I projected above. I think he’ll get those numbers in 12 healthy contests. He should start the year off with a bang too, he’ll be the #1 in Carolina, a receiving position that always justifies fantasy attention.

5. Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals (45 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs): So, there are many people that like Early Doucett to take Bryant Johnson’s old #3 gig, and a the others seem to like Jeremiah Urban – well I like Breaston. We’ll see how it works out, don’t draft him unless it’s a deep, deep league – but pay attention to this guy and see if he wins the gig. Boldin could be a wild card and Breaston might make it to #2???

6. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (3,500 yards, 20 TDs): This kid is a stud. He had some great performances in 2007, but had a season cut short by some injuries. I like his chances to carve up the AFC South. The Colts don’t really have much of a secondary and he’ll have to throw against the Titans and Jaguars. He still doesn’t have a stud running back to depend on, but Slaton will give him some nice yards on dump down passes, and if Chris Brown can stay relatively healthy he can be a good compliment. As a back-up, Schaub will have some nice starts for fantasy owners.