Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Conference Championships

While many love the Super Bowl and all they hype it brings – and others love the 4 game format of Week 2’s NFL Playoffs – the Conference Championships are my absolute favorite time of the year in the NFL. Don’t take that as to mean that I have the perfect drop on games in Week 3 of the NFL Playoffs, but take it from me, there is no better time to sit down and watch football then AFC/NFC Championship Sunday. There are 2 games instead of 1, and while the Super Bowl often disappoints or is a blowout (though not recently) – these games are often tight and full of fireworks. Plus, there’s something about the right to go to the Super Bowl – that’s what these guys are fighting for. That’s the difference between Week 2 and Week 3 – Week 3’s winners face off in the final game – so 4 teams are playing for the Super Bowl – just one win away. It’s as good as it gets. Anyway, that’s enough about that – I rocked it up last week, finishing a Giants win away from a perfect week. But 3-1 will have to do as my playoff record moves to 5-3 overall. Here are my picks for this Sunday’s NFL action.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have been awesome. They beat a very good Atlanta Falcons team that everybody (including myself) thought would oust Arizona from post-season play. Then the Cardinals walked into Carolina, where the over-hyped and overrated Panthers hadn’t lost a game all season long, and Arizona won easily in a landslide over the Panthers. Now Arizona hosts the Eagles as the two worst records in the NFC Playoffs face-off for a chance to meet the AFC’s best in the Super Bowl. Brilliant. The Eagles ousted the run-heavy Vikings in an ugly game. Then they stepped onto New York’s home-field for the second time this season and made it two of two against the defending champs, this game meaning more than the last. And now they are headed to Arizona trying for their 3rd straight road playoff win in as many chances. I have to admit, I didn’t think either of these teams would make it past Week 1. And I also have to admit, I think the road team wins again on Sunday. The Eagles haven’t had much trouble with teams that don’t run effectively, and I don’t think Arizona will do much running against the Eagles. With a very good secondary that has really come together, Philadelphia feasts on drop back passers and they make plays on balls in the air. Edge has been better and Hightower has some power and speed, but the Eagles won’t have much to worry about in the run department from the Cardinals, and that gives this game to Philly.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5): Unlike the first game on Sunday, these are the two teams I expected to be around this late. I liked Baltimore to trounce the Dolphins (and they did) and I liked them to pull out a tight one against the Titans (and they did). I also liked the Steelers to dominate the Chargers (and if they did anything, they dominated). So if you can add, “One and one and one is three” I’m feeling pretty smart if you know what I mean! Okay, enough butchering great music – back to business. If you’re one of my trusty followers, you know exactly how I feel about betting against teams that should have lost last week and won. I love to go against those clubs. The Ravens are a prime example of that. If it weren’t for some freak fumbles, a missed field goal, and a poorly thrown pick in the red-zone, the Titans would have taken this game easily. I know the Ravens are a turnover causing group – but Tennessee played a majority of the game in Baltimore’s territory. The leading passer was Kerry Collins, – he had 281 yards to Flacco’s 161. The leading rusher was Chris Johnson (and he only played for 2 quarters) with 72 yards, and LenDale White’s 45 yards was only 5 yards less than Baltimore’s entire rushing output on Sunday. The Ravens found a way to win – they obviously have the will to do so, but it will catch up with them this week. They’ve played 17 straight weeks heading into this weekend’s contest. The Steelers have had the benefit of two bye weeks during that time. The Steelers defense is at least as good as Baltimore’s group, they are more fresh, playing at home, and privy to a better offense to help them out. I like the Steelers in this one, despite the big spread.

Good luck this week my loyal readers! And Enjoy the BEST SUNDAY IN FOOTBALL!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 17

Well, I will randomly post up questions with answers as the year moves forward, but this is my last of my seasonal Ask Me questions and answers. I’m always available via e-mail, for questions and advice, so feel free to send in at your will. I got a ton of questions from David this week in an email, and all were solid, so I just printed his one question and my long answers… Hope this helps!

“I want to thank you for all the advice I used and all the advice that I failed to use and I should have used. It enabled me to win my teacher’s league and finish 2nd in my big money league by .4 of a point. It looks like I will be able to play for a few more seasons. Now I need some advice for the playoffs. 1a-I would like you to list the 2 best teams in each conference and 1b-who you think will be in the Superbowl. 2-If you had a chance to draft a team for the playoffs what top 3 QBs would you go after,which 6RBs,and 6 WRs would you target? 3-Are there any players that you think will play in 3 games? 4-What are the 3 best Def to target? I appreciate all the help that you have given me. Also, 5- I am in a keeper league where I can spend $160. I can keep 3 players. Here is my list. Which 3 would you keep and why?

Andre Johnson $25
Ryan Grant $20
Chris Johnson $13
Eddie Royal $6
Jay Cutler $12

6- Finally, are there any RBs or WRs that could have a break out year that will be flying under the radar for next season? What about QBs that could have great seasons? Are you in any playoff leagues?

I would like to say you’re welcome for the advice, and sorry for the poor advice that I gave that might have stopped you from getting #1 in both leagues, but 1 and 2 is pretty solid. I’m in a couple playoff leagues, one in which you just pick the best starting lineup every week (I’m defending Champ there), and one where you pick 25 guys, any 25 you want, and you make a starting lineup every week depending on who gets eliminated from your roster every week. Now for the answers to your questions (but remember, this might all be a little easier if I knew exactly who was going to the playoffs)…

1a. Top Two Teams in Each Conference:
NFC- NY Giants, Carolina Panthers – both rely on the run game, and have solid defenses – that usually means playoff success.
AFC- Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans – I think I’d rank the Titans higher because they run the ball better, but if Big Ben gets his stuff together, and he usually does come playoff time, the Steelers will be tough to beat.
Sorry there’s no flier crazy pick here, but I truly think these top 4 are the top 4, so I have to go that way.

1b. Super Bowl match-up: Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tough one for me. I think the Giants have a chance to get upset. They have some holes, that’s for sure, and they don’t play their best against the rest of the NFC East. If Dallas or Philadelphia somehow get in, and the Giants play one of them in New York in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Giants might get upset. If Carolina plays all their games at home, I think they have a great shot to see the Super Bowl. But really, the NFC is a tough one. AFC too, it’s either the Titans or the Steelers for me, and both have a great shot.

2. Playoff Rankings
QB- Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, Peyton Manning…. UGH (I hate the quarterbacks in this one, i have to be honest, I think Ben might be in the longest, and he has a chance to go all the way, and he’s solid so he gets the nod over Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme, neither of those guys are that good fantasywise. Tony and Peyton both have a chance to play multiple games, if Dallas gets in, they could easily play 3, and Manning will match up against one of the AFC East teams or the AFC West winner, neither of those teams are great, and he has a good match-up in Week 1, plus they can’t run so he’ll be throwing. Romo (if Dallas gets in) will likely play Arizona or whoever wins the North (Chicago or Minnesota) – all are great throwing match-ups, and Dallas is likely better than any of those teams. But this is tough, I might pick four just to make sure.

RB- Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, (AP or Forte – whoever gets in), Marion Barber (I would almost stay exclusively in the NFC, because whomever wins in the AFC wild card round will have to face Tennessee and or Pittsburgh – don’t sign me up for that RB match-up. Pittsburgh’s RB situation is cloudy to say the least, and Tennessee probably has a good match-up in Week 2 of the playoffs, with Chris Johnson being a good match-up against a wild card winner. But that might leave you hanging if the Titans don’t make the Super Bowl. Tough choices.

WR- Steve Smith, TO (if Dallas gets in), Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss (if), Hines Ward, Wes Welker (if) – if the Patriots don’t get in, or if Dallas doesn’t get in, you need three more – Roddy White, Domenick Hixon, Vincent Jackson – if Vince doesn’t get in, maybe take a shot on Arizona and grab Boldin or Fitz, I just don’t see that team winning in the playoffs, but you never know. I didn’t think much of the Giants last year either – how’d that work out for me?

3. I think Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, New England, – and the 4 top seeds all have a chance to play 3 games…

4. I would target only defenses from the AFC, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and maybe Baltimore (if they get in) – that way you’ll have the best shot at starting a D every week, and all those defenses are tough. The only D I’d grab from the NFC is the Giants, and remember, repeating as Super Bowl Champs is really hard to do. If Baltimore doesn’t get in, and you need one Week 1 playoff defense, the winner of the NFC North or the Cowboys might be a decent bet. If Baltimore gets in, I’d surely take the 3 top Ds that I listed.

But all of this depends on how you’re doing this league. If this is a draft, and you are snaking and picking up players, things might be different. The way I do playoff leagues is that you get 25 players of your choice, and every week you start a lineup of QB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D… I kind of remember you maybe doing a draft. If that’s the case, I think the Falcons have a nice shot at winning Week 1 in the playoffs, and a solid shot at Week 2 as well. Roddy, Turner – two solid options.

5. Keeper League Guys:
I would keep Chris Johnson for sure – he’ll never be $13 ever again, kid is only going to get better.
I would probably keep Andre Johnson too – I think the Texans break out next year, and this guy is probably the best young receiving talent in the league. And I also think $25 is a nice price for a top receiver – who were the expensive receivers this year? What did they cost?

Eddie Royal for $6 seems like a steal, but it seems like auction drafts always find you cheap receivers somewhere, is that true? I haven’t done one before, had a couple started, but never got the league all the way through…

If it’s not a PPR league, I think Ryan Grant is a solid buy. He doesn’t have much hype though, and it’s likely that you can get him for around this price next season – so maybe you’d want to go for Cutler…

What did the top 5 QBs go for this season? He’ll definitely be a Top 5 guy next year. Just think about value, I think Jay, Eddie, Chris, and Andre all have climbing value. Grant is about the same, maybe down a bit – you want to keep your best value. But you also want to look at RB options moving forward, if Grant is going to be one of the best RBs left on the board, he might be a keeper option. Not a PPR is it? If it is a PPR league, I think I’d shy away from Ryan.

6: Some guys that have either seen a huge drop in Value, or aren’t respected as much as they should be, that could be goodies next season…

Kevin Smith (I see a lot of talent there), Pierre Thomas (he’s the best running back in New Orleans), Rashard Mendenhall (I still love his game, and I have a feeling Parker might get the snip), Roddy White (one of the best receivers in the game, doesn’t get enough credit), Marques Colston (not sure, but he might have lost a lot of value), Braylon Edwards (so much talent, so many drops, probably drops way down because of those), Ted Ginn Jr (looks to be doing well, next year is his 3rd), Dwayne Bowe (consistent, very consistent and that KC offense seems to be blossoming a little bit), Vincent Jackson (this might finally be the time he meets those expectations he gets from his talent), Maurice Jones Drew (the #1 back in Jacksonville next season, all season- he’s had a great year, and they will undoubtedly have a healthier offensive line next season), Ronnie Brown (they didn’t give him the ball enough this year, Ricky gets older, this kid has all the talent in the world for a team that’s getting better where it counts, on the line), Ryan Torrain (I watched him in half a game, and I see what Mike Shanny sees in him, hopefully Shanny doesn’t go schitzo and change it up, but he’s a deep sleeper), Ray Rice (stay tuned, but Willis might get the snip, and Ray would be in line for at least a Chris Johnson-LenDale White type share of the Ravens backfield), Roy Williams (this is a big shot in the dark, but Dallas traded too much and gave up too much money to see Roy get 3 passes a game, he probably turns into a 1000 yard guy next year, but I think his value will go back up because of Dallas Hype going into next season).

NFL Playoffs – Conference Championship

One of the best Sunday’s in all of sports. Personally, I like this weekend more than the Super Bowl in most cases, but with the possibility of a Packers/Patriots Big Game, I can’t help but look ahead to that match-up. You can bet, that regardless of my picks, I’ll be rooting for the Patriots and Packers to meet up at the Last Dance – Perfection versus a perfect old quarterback, gotta love it. Here are my Free Picks for the NFC and AFC Championships.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots (-14):
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Unlike the Jaguars, I don’t think the Chargers are one of the Best 5 teams in the NFL. However, what I think doesn’t seem to matter in the swing of things, as the Chargers have maneuvered their way into the Final Four – quite a run for a team that didn’t finish the game with either their starting running back (LT, one of, if not the best player in the game) or their starting quarterback (Phillip Rivers, two great games in a row). They won against the Colts with their defense, but what it really came down to was momentum. After Marvin Harrison fumbled the ball with the Colts driving to score, Indy never got mo back. I don’t think momentum will find San Diego in this game. The Patritos have won 17 of their 17 games this season, already – that has never happened before. But this Patriots team plays best when opponents get them ready, and LT’s comments from last years’ playoff meeting with the Pats, as well as his blabber before this years’ matchup, has New England geared for a big win in front of their home-town fans. Believe it, a big win is on the way.

New York Giants (+7) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

People will see the score from this game earlier in the year and insist that the Packers killed the Giants early. That just wasn’t the case. The Giants were up at half time 10-7 and down 13-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter. After that, the Packers received a couple gift turnovers from the Giants and did dirty work with them, scoring three straight touchdowns to put the game way out of reach, accumulating a 35-13 score in the process. I sure think the Packers will come out of Green Bay with a victory, but I don’t think it will be as easy as 35-13. I expect Ryan Grant to have another big day, this time going heads up against the team that cut him earlier in the season. He should be thankful though, that cut job looks like it gave him the chance he needed to become a rich man in this league. Watch out for cold weather, Ellie Manning has shrinkage in the fingers when it gets cold, and he just can’t hold onto or throw the ball all that well. This game is a tough one for me to pick, I like the Pats -14 a whole heck of a lot more, but if I had to choose, I’d take the Giants +7, which means a lot, because I can’t stand those Football Giants.

2006 Conference Championships Review

1-1 going into the last game of the year, but hey, that’s the way I want it, down to the wire, and my 3rd straight chance at .500 or better all revolves around this last game. But we’ll get to that next week. For now, lets see how 1-1 looked…

New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Chicago Bears:

Chicago came out with fists a pumping, then hit a little snag at the end of the 1st half and start of the 2nd, but then Reggie Bush taunted the Bears, and Drew Brees intentionally gave the Bears 2 free points and a possession after grounding the ball in his own end zone. And after Drew did that, the Bears didn’t allow another score for the rest of the contest. This game was closer than the score, but either way, the Saints couldn’t cover for me, as they lost 39-14.

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-3):

The Colts held the line by just a point, but a point here and a point there have killed me all year, so I’ll take this win with a smile from ear to ear. The Colts looked as good as dead, but Peyton stepped up with a big 2 minute drill, and won the game for his Colts. And Tom Brady, well, when it came right down to it, he was the one who threw the interception to lose the game for his Patriots. Talk about a change of rolls. We’ll see if Peyton can complete the drill and get a Super Bowl win, so everyone can shut up about how he’s not a big game player.

2006 Wild Card Weekend

Week 1 didn’t go well, but luckily I have 7 more games to rebuild my playoff championship run… Here’s how Tony Romo’s field goal hold rolled…


Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): Starting off the week I blew up the spot with an easy victory here. Herman Edwards was too loyal to one player while being unloyal to his team. He left Trent Green on the stake to burn, as a quarterback who had played much better during the year, Damon Huard, was left to listen on his headset from the sidelines. If there was ever a time to toss in Damon, it was Saturday. The Colts D came to play, showing how Valuable Bob Sanders is to that club. It started out nice for Ol’ Lucky and then it all went awry.

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5):

The Hawks should have lost, but they didn’t. They never were going to cover, regardless of what happened. I lost this one. The Hawks receivers were never open, Matt was always under pressure, and Shaun couldn’t run on the Boys. However, the luck was with Seattle and the Hawks pulled out with a big home win over TO and his crew of angry men. However, my least favorite teams in sports just happen to be Dallas and Duke. D&D. I started out the day by watching Duke lose their ACC opener, then showed up at the Hawk game only to watch Dallas blow an easy win…. Hahahahahaahaha!


New York Jets (+9.5) at New England Patriots:

This game was way closer than the final outcome, but some late turnovers and big mistakes ended any chance I had at covering. This game was fun to watch in the beginning as both coaches had a game-plan to stick it to each other. Hilarious. But the Pats were too good, and Mangini still has work to do to get his Jets to Patriot level.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7):

The Giants had a chance, but as they did too often all year long, they failed to take advantage of numerous chances early, which killed them in the end. David Akers hit a field goal to win it, and Tiki Barber’s last game ended in a Lucky Lester loss, bringing me to 1-3 on Wild Card weekend. Tough one.

2006 Divisional Playoffs Review

I thought I was going to break out with a couple big wins in Week 2 of the playoffs, and, that’s all I got, a couple big wins. A couple big losses had me even on the week. Check out where I got hammered and how I came out on top…


Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-5): (loss) For the 3rd time in two weeks, I took the favorite to win, and just barely got beat by a couple points, but such is the way it goes. The Saints and Eagles were pretty darn even, but New Orleans got a huge game from Deuce McAllister. It was Deuce who kept the Eagles defense on the field much too long down the stretch, slanging the Eagles to get themselves one win away from the big show.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) @ Baltimore Ravens: (win) Peyton finally slayed his 3-4 demons, ousting the Ravens on the road for a shot at the Patriots, for old times’ sake. But it wasn’t really Peyton who won the game for Indy, he had 2 picks on and didn’t lead his Colts on a single touchdown drive. It was Indy’s newfound stalwart defense, holding the Ravens under 300 yards of total offense, and forcing 4 turnovers in the game. Indy will find themselves in the Super Bowl if their defense can step up and give Tom Brady and the patriots hell.


Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) @ Chicago Bears: (win) The Hawks couldn’t get the win in Chicago, but obviously Seattle came to win the game in Chicago. As it turns out, the Hawks were hurt more than they led on to. Matt Hasselbeck had broken fingers and a torn labrum, while the Hawks only had 1 starter from their original lineup in the secondary. But Seattle still had a shot late but couldn’t get her done, and Robbie Gould hit a 49 yarder to stick Chicago in the NFC Championship, hosting the Saints.

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5): New England got some unbelievable luck, and the Chargers did all they could not to win this game, and Tom Brady and the Patriots pulled out yet another game with me betting against them. It has been a tough road for me following the Pats, but once again, I won’t be taking them against the Colts next week.