Tag Archives: NCAA Picks

New Mexico Lobos vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview

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New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview: This game opened at 41, and I thought that was a little high – at three popular sports books you can get this game at +45, and that’s a big point and a half – it moves the margin up and over the largest margin of victory that the Horned Frogs have had all season. What else? The Lobos haven’t lost by 40 points all season long.

The Lobos may be 1-10, obviously they aren’t a good football team, but that record doesn’t mean they can’t cover a spread of magnanimous proportions such as this. The Lobos lost by just 5 to BYU and beat Colorado State last week. In each of the last 9 meetings, the final score hasn’t approached 45 points. New Mexico has played their best football latel – that also helps. What else? There’s nothing for the Lobos to lose –  they have had a terrible season, and if they can make a game of it against the highly ranked Horned Frogs, it would be the highlight of their season. That’s something, I’m telling you – it’s probably not worth an upset, but it’s certainly worth 40+ points.

This line is inflated by 10 points. TCU has never been favored by more than 20 points in this match-up, and not only that, but the spread hasn’t been in double digits in any of the last 8 years. None. The Lobos record is bad, but a lot of things can go into that. New Mexico isn’t this bad.

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Buffalo Bulls vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks NCAA Free Pick

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Buffalo Bulls (-1.5) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks NCAA Free Pick: At this point you have to realize that anything can happen in College Football. And that it gets even crazier when you start playing games in the middle of the week at night on National Television. Neither of these teams are headed to a Bowl Game. Neither is winning anything in their conference, both have had disappointing seasons. But this one shouldn’t be difficult.

The Bulls are a much better team. They have lost their last three games by 3 points or less. They have 5 total losses this season by a touchdown or less. They’ve played some tough teams close. Miami-Ohio has one win, one close loss to the Temple Owls, and a bunch of tomato can performances.

This is being played on the road, where Buffalo is 1-3 on the season, but it’s not like Miami has been awesome at home either, they are just 1-3 there. Buffalo has a more efficient passing attack, a much better rushing attack and defensively they have played much better than the Redhawks.

The difference in Buffalo’s average points scored and points against is under 3. The difference in Miami’s average points for and points against is 18. Those numbers don’t always mean a lot, but without an offensive area to gang up on (the Bulls are too diverse) I don’t see Miami stopping Buffalo at all. Buffalo’s bad luck has to turn around, and I think it does against the Redhawks on Wednesday Night.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

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Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.

East Carolina Pirates vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick

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East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5) Pick: Call me nuts, but I like the Hurricane to snap their 4 game losing streak and beat the East Carolina Pirates this Sunday Night. After starting the season 4-1, the Hurricane have had a very tough schedule down the stretch, and while they’ve played solid football (for the most part), they just haven’t been able to get over the hump and get a victory. They lost by a touchdown to Boise State, 4 points to UTEP, and single point to Houston last Saturday. They got beat by a couple scores against SMU between the UTEP and Houston game, but like I said, it’s not like they’re getting whooped.

On the bright side, both of these teams lost to SMU. Both of them have lost to basically every good team they’ve played thus far. I just think it’s time for Tulsa to break out and win a game. They have lots of options offensively, they do a lot of things well, and can really put up points. Against an East Carolina team that can really struggle and has been limited through the air of late, I think Tulsa can just out-gun them. I think if East Carolina had Tulsa’s schedule, they’d be lucky to be 4-5.

The better team is the home team, despite records, despite their recent losses, the better team should come out and win this game. I’m taking Tulsa to win, I’m guessing by 10-14 points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick: This game opened at -6.5 but was up to -7.5 on Tuesday morning when I sent out my Just Picks newsletter, obviously I’m stoked on getting that extra point. Losing by a touchdown still gets me a win, and the way Notre Dame has fought back in games this year, that extra half point might just come in handy. I still think Notre Dame is good value at +7 – they have more of an offensive air attack than anything Pittsburgh has seen this year, and that’s coming from a guy that can’t stand Notre Dame.

Pitt Panther starting QB, Bill Stull, has been absolutely great. Jimmy Clausen has been even better. I love to hate the kid and his “big name” style, but Clausen has been awesome this season. He’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, completing 68% of his passes – and you have to admire those 2770 yards through 9 games. Stull might not have as many touchdowns or yards, but he’s been key to the Panthers 8-1 season thus far. He should find plenty of room to make Notre Dame suffer this Saturday.

I think Pitt is the better team, but not by as much as everyone else seems to. Remember, even in losses, the Irish have played close. They’ve lost 0 games by more than a touchdown, and I have to believe there are a couple teams on their schedule that could give Pittsburgh a run. The Panther struggled against UConn and Rutgers a few weeks ago. They lost outright to N.C. State, of all teams, as Russell Wilson destroyed them for 4 passing touchdowns. Jimmy could do that. 7.5 is great value, 7 is solid too – I hope the Irish get embarrassed, but my money’s on a close game.

Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick

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Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) Free Pick: The Hurricanes are 7-2 on the season, 6-3 ATS, and 3-1 on the road. They are 2-2 ATS away from home. The Tar Heels are 6-3 this year, 4-4 ATS, and 4-2 at home.

The Canes really struggle against teams that can run the ball, and the Heels have been on point with their run game over the last few weeks. They’ve out-rushed their last 4 opponents, FSU, Virginia Tech, and Duke – winning 2 of their last 3 games, and setting up a good ACC match-up with the visiting Hurricanes.

The Tar Heels have won 3 of thier last 4 while the Miami has won 5 of their last 6. The Hurricanes are 3-1 on the road this season. Their two losses came against defenses that stop the run, Clemson and Virginia Tech – that match-up is good for the Heels. I think they can keep this game low scoring, giving them a nice chance to pull the upset at home.

When it comes down to it, I like Carolina’s defense to take advantage of the mistakes Miami has. The Tar Heels have one of the most underrated defenses in the land, allowing just over 15 points per game. The Heels hold a nice edge in time of possession, and I think that goes a long way this Saturday. Getting Miami thinking that they have to do more with less is a successful recipe for getting the W. These two teams are very even, getting 3 points at home is good value.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.