Tag Archives: NCAA Picks

Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick

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Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick: The Wildcats are a tough team to figure. They can play great football against the best of the best, and they can go out and lose to the Huskies or the Cal Bears. But Arizona has been more impressive than USC in just about every single key football category you could think of. Yards gained, yards allowed, points per game, time of possession, penalties, win differential against winning teams – you name it, the Cats have been the better team all year long.

But USC has 60% of the public bets, and every “expert” list I’ve seen has the Trojans as a great bet going into the weekend. I don’t buy it. The Trojans have a lot of stud athletes, sure, but Arizona can run the ball against the Trojans, and Nick Foles has shown he can throw it. This Arizona team outplayed the Ducks a couple weeks ago when they lost in overtime – I think they are the better team, they are getting more than a touchdown against the Trojans, and there’s not much else to say about it.

The Trojans have been out-rushed in 3 of their last 4 games, and took losses in two of those games. The Wildcats have lost just one game when out-rushing their opponent. And when the Wildcats do lose, they haven’t lost by much. Their biggest loss this season? Try a 10-point loss on the road at Iowa.

Arizona Wildcats (+7.5) @ USC Trojans

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two straight to the Florida Gators, but that’s where the gambling numbers stop favoring Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS against the Gators in the last 8 games. Alabama has won 3 of their last 5 over Florida, and in all 3 of those games they were underdogs. This is the smallest spread either team have dealt with all year long. Neither has been an underdog yet this year. Alabama was actually up late in the Florida Game last year, but the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to walk away with the SEC Title.

But this is a different year and these are different teams. The Gators don’t have Percy Harvin anymore, and the Crimson Tide don’t have their senior quarterback anymore. Both teams have been great all year, and this should be a very tough-nosed game. But in the end I just think the Gators are too explosive.

I think Mark Ingram is a very good runner, but the Gators have been so dominant defensively this year, I just don’t see the Tide making much of their offensive snaps. Florida has yet to give up more than 20 points, and allow less than 10 on average. Alabama is just a point behind them, giving up only 11 per game. Both of these teams are good, I just think the Gators are better, and that’s what it comes right down to. Alabama is the slight public favorite, 52% like them.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide

California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

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California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick: Coming into the season, the Cal Bears boasted one of the best running backs in the nation, if not the best. But Jahvid Best had a scary injury, and hasn’t played in quite some times. The interesting part of that scenario is that the Bears rushing attack hasn’t really suffered. In fact, I think the offensive line is blocking better, and overall, the Bears are a more efficient offense now that they aren’t relying on their stud running back.

That spells trouble for the Huskies. I’ve been pretty much dead on with the Huskies this year, I know them well. I know who they should play well against, I know who they struggle against. I’ve said all along that if you can fully commit to running the ball against UW then you can win easily. I think the Golden Bears can and will do that.

Not only are they the better team, and pose a tough match-up for the Huskies defense, but the Bears are playing their best football of the season. After struggling mightily against good teams, the Bears have beaten Arizona and Stanford back to back. And they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the University of Washington. I know Husky stadium is loud but I don’t know how long it will be that way.

If you look at stats, you’ll see that the Bears do just about everything more effectively than the Huskies. Stats, the way I feel, the moon alignment – I have everything going for me here. I think the Bears win 38-21 in Seattle.

California Golden Bears (-6) @ Washington Huskies

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick

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Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick: I don’t see what about the Cornhuskers has them at a two touchdown underdog in this one. They’ve basically had one bad game all year long, and aside from that one piss poor outing, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech in which they turned the ball over more than Jay Cutler, they’ve lost two games by a total of three points, a 2 point loss to Iowa State and a 1 point loss to Virginia Tech. That’s not really two touchdown underdog worthy is it?

Against like opponents, the Cornhuskers have held their own. They beat Kansas by two touchdowns while the Longhorns beat the Jayhawks by three touchdowns. The Huskers beat Oklahoma 10-3, the Longhorns won their tilt with the Sooners 16-13. Both won against the spread and straight up against Missouri.

They Cornhuskers have out-rushed all but two of their opponents on the season, the same can be said for the Longhorns. The Cornhuskers have a superior defense, allowing just 11 points on average this season. The Lonhorns have the superior offense, blasting weaker teams late in the year, and finishing the year averaging 43 points per contest compared to the Cornhuskers 25.6.

But Nebraska plays their toughest football against the best teams. They beat Oklahoma, fought Virginia Tech until the very end, and beat up on Kansas. The last two games in this match-up the Longhorns have won by 2 and 3 points. Nebraska won ATS in both games. Texas has more injury concerns headed into Saturday’s Championship game, and that last little push makes the Cornhuskers a great bet in my cocky opinion.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)

Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick

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Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick: Everybody has completely bought in to the Illini’s recent change in play, and I must admit, this is more of the team I expected when the season started. Juice Williams is playing pretty good football, and the team has some offensive playmakers, definitely. The problem is, when they’re playing good or bad football, they still can’t stop anybody. Especially a team like Fresno State that is much better than people give them credit for.

I thought this line was kind pretty off when I first saw the line, and it’s only moved in my favor. I took the Bulldogs +1 and they’ve moved to a field goal underdog, and still, 60+% of the public likes the Illini. I’m starting to think (or have always thought, would be a better way to put it) that “names” of a program means a lot more to bettors than the actual ability of said team. Really, the Bulldogs are the better team, there’s no doubt in my mind.

But Illinois is a “Big Conference School” (I know, the Big 10, so powerful!) and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 against the spread (including a big win over big powerhouse, Michigan). They are hot, so to say. Sure, they only have 3 wins on the year and have been beaten by double digits in almost every single one of their 8 losses, but they’re “hot”.

Listen, Fresno State’s only losses come against Nevada, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Two of those were decided by one score. One went to overtime. I’ll take the much better team and a field goal, thank you very much.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick

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Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick: These two teams have definitely been the class of the Big East this season. Rutgers made a nice little run, and West Virginia capped off some solid play of late with a win over Pittsburgh last week, but the Bearcats and Panthers have been on top of the conference from start to finish. Cincinnati remains undefeated headed into Pittsburgh to play the Panthers. It will be tough, and they’ll need some help, but the Bearcats could be playing for a National Championship if the dominoes fall correctly. Better yet, if Humpty Dumpty goes splat.

This line has really moved 3.5 points away from Pittsburgh and what started as the Panthers being a small favorite has become the Bearcats being a small road favorite. I took the game right in between where it started and where it is now, but when it comes right down to it, the chances of those few points mattering in the game are pretty slim. If it got to a field goal, my feelings might have changed a little, but -1, -2, +1 – rarely does that change make a difference.

What I like about the Bearcats is their awesome offensive firepower. I know the Panthers can score some points, and they are certainly efficient – but I think they’ll struggle with the speed of Cincinnati’s defense and I doubt the Panthers can score enough to keep up with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: This game has really moved around on me this week. I believe it opened up at even, and the line moved fast in betting favor of the Scarlet Knights, giving the home team 2.5 points when I picked my lines for the week on Monday Night. Since then, despite the high traffic of public bets on West Virginia, the line has moved in West Virginia’s favor, and now the Mountaineers are the underdog, +1.5 almost everywhere you look. 58% of the public bet is on WVU.

Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10, losing to Pittsburgh by a touchdown and getting routed by Syracuse, of all teams.But sometimes that’s what happens to young quarterbacks. Tom Savage has been great since taking over for the Scarlet Knights, and he’s been even more impressive at home. The only home games Rutgers lost all season were against Cincinnati and Pitt.

West Virginia has wan 6 of their last 8, getting beat by a field goal @ Cincinnati, and losing by 11 @ South Florida. The Mountaineers are 1-3 on the road this season. Their only road win was a beat down performed on the same Syracuse team Rutgers lost to a couple weeks ago. They are 4-6 ATS this season.

I like the home field advantage, I like the positive feel to the season thus far for the Knights. I like Tom Savage and the way he’s led his team. West Virginia is good, they’ll come to battle, but I like the home team.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.5)

Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks Pick & Preview

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The Beavers and the Ducks, Oregon State visiting Oregon, the Cival War, one of the best rivalries in the Pac-10, the two best teams in the conference, a trip to the Rose Bowl against Ohio State at stake, a chance to be the one that took USC’s place atop a conference that has been dominated by Southern California for a long time. Yeah, there’s a lot on the line for Thursday Night’s showdown in the Beaver State – if your state is named after you, shouldn’t you be the popular pick?

Alright, so maybe Oregon was called the Beaver State long before OSU became the Beavers, but I like to kid. What I see from Oregon State is a team that has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points, and that 10-point loss came very early in the season to a very good Cincinnati team that has, consequently, gone undefeated thus far. The Beavers other two losses, a 6-point defeat at the hands of the Trojans and a 5-point loss to Arizona. What makes them so tough to shut down? Well, they pass the ball with great efficiency (more passing yardage than their opponent in 6 of their last 8 games) and are down right dominant on the ground (have been out-rushed only twice this year). They are balanced, and they do both very well.

But Oregon has one of the best offenses in the nation, has one of, if not the best spread/read/running quarterback in the land, and a very talented young running back, plus a bruiser in Mr. Blount if they every decide to use them. Neither team stops their opponent much with defensive prowess, but both can make big plays, and they have.

The road team has won each of the last 2, but the home team won 8 in a row prior to 2007 and 2008. The final score is usually more of a blowout than a close contest, but with these offenses, it might be the last one with the ball – that makes the points the bet for me!

Oregon State Beavers (+10) @ Oregon Ducks

Arkansas State Indians vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick

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Arkansas State Indians vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: These two teams are very equal. Since the Hilltoppers gave the axe to their head coach in the midst of an 0-9 season, they have played better football. They’ve lost 2 games by a total of 9 points, and they are currently rolling hard against the spread, winning their last 3.

The Hilltoppers lost to the University of Louisiana-Monroe by 3 points, then had Florida Atlantic take them down by 6 – both games were on the road. Arkansas State also lost to those two teams, but they lost to Monroe by 6 and Florida Atlantic beat them 35-18. Recently, the Indians are 1-4 over their last 5, having failed to cover the spread in any of their last 5 games.

The Hilltoppers have out-rushed two of their last 3 opponents, covering both games. The Indians have really only won two games this year (Mississippi Valley State doesn’t really count), and in both they out-rushed their opponent. Every game where an opposing ground attack as given them trouble, they’ve been ousted easily.

What’s making this game tilt even more in the Hilltoppers’ favor? How about the Indians starting quarterback, and probably their most efficient offensive player (Corey Leonard) is doubtful for Thursday’s game with Western Kentucky. Oh, and this game is a road game for the Indians, and they are winless on the road so far this year.

The game should be pretty close, but the home team getting 6 points against a road team they are even with? And that road team is missing their starting quarterback? Yeah, I like the Hilltoppers to cover, and probably get their first win of the year.

Arkansas State Indians @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+7)


Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas CFB Free Pick

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Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas CFB Free Pick: The Chipps have been a beast in week-day games this year. They’ve won me games where I’ve bet them to cover, and they’ve beaten me when I pick against them. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation with Dan LeFevour, and they play tough up front on both offense and defense – but just because they’ve beaten up a lot of teams doesn’t make them a sure thing victor over the surprising Bobcats. This is how I see Friday Night’s big game…

This game has already hit 13, even a better number for those backing the underdog. I’m sure it’s moved that fast because the public is all over LeFevour and the Chipps. All the publicity goes to the Chipps, Dan has nearly 2,800 yards passing with 25 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. He also 650 yards on the ground with 14 rushing touchdowns. One of the better small college quarterbacks every, he has thrown for at least 21 touchdowns in each of his 4 seasons at Central Michigan. He’s run for at least 6 and as many as 19 TDs over the last 4 years. So far, he’s accounted for 99 passing scores, 46 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown in his career. The publicity is definitely with him and the Chipps, and they deserve it.

But betting isn’t all about who’s the best looking or who has the best numbers, no, it’s about covering that spread, and the Bobcats have been a good enough team to appreciate and see value in as double digit dogs, even on the road and facing the Chipps. The Bobcats hvae won 7 of thier last 8, just like CMU, and they’ve had some similar outcomes against some similar opponents. This should be a close one.

Ohio Bobcats (+12) @ Central Michigan Chippewas