Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs: Fiesta Bowl Pick

As I wrote in my stream of conscious article right after the BCS games were announced, this is the best worst game of the bowl season. These are two of the best teams in college football, despite their conferences, and their “small college” “mid-major” status. TCU has one of the better defenses a college team has put together since Miami was paying kids to play back in the day, and Boise State just comes out and beats just about every damn team they play – aside from TCU, last season, when the Broncos lost 17-16.

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This season, the two “big-time-small-schools” get to play each other, again, with absolutely no way to prove anything at all except that one of these teams is better than the other on Monday, the 4th of January, after a month between games. And it has no chance of proving to anyone that the Horned Frogs or Broncos should be in the hunt for a national championship, because they can’t pull a big upset over a top ranked BCS school. Oh no they can’t.

But these are two great teams, and while it will certainly be a solid match-up, I think the Horned Frogs will get the best of the Broncos once again. Boise State has a very solid offense and an underrated defense, but TCU’s better in both aspects. They might not throw it better, but they are more efficient and they will control the clock in this one. Eventually, they’ll pull away, and win this one by double digits.

Boise State Broncos VS Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7)

BCS National Championship Preview: Wronging a Right

Before I get started on my frustrated rant that ends up with me crushing my own soul by suggesting these idiots actually got it right, here’s a list of the 10 schools that will be enjoying BCS Bowl money this coming New Year, and the match-ups in their selected Bowls. I’ll be doing free picks, write-ups for each game later in the month:

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BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Fiesta Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Boise State Broncos

Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

First and foremost, lets get the obvious out of the way: there is now way in hell anything without a playoff could ever really be called a “Championship”. If the Yankees never had to play the Red Sox, or if they didn’t have to play the National League, it would be pretty damn hard to call them the National Champions or even better yet, the “World Champions”, now wouldn’t it? Pitting the two “top rated” teams against each other,  based on an absurd ranking system that relies almost completely on coaches that don’t even vote, and that are supposed to vote a certain way based on their conference loyalties, in a system that brings into account “PRE-SEASON Rankings”, seems like an interesting way to crown a champ to me.

But like I said, that is obvious, and since this fine country is almost completely money driven, it makes sense that colleges would keep selling the souls of their athletes for as much cash as possible, and keep this “clever” bowl system going for as long as possible. Here’s to you Mr. Obama – it may not be high on your list, but I’ll be impatiently hoping for your mark on the college game. So we’ll just agree to agree here, it is impossible to do teams’ justice in this format, especially when their are multiple undefeated teams. IMPOSSIBLE.

Now lets get into these match-ups and how they are absolutely right in the worst way. I personally would have matched up TCU and Florida, Cincinnati and Boise State – and lets be honest, I could careless about the other match-ups right now, because matching TCU, Cincinnati, or Boise State up with Georgia Tech or Iowa wouldn’t show anybody anything. And the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl and it’s looking like it always will be despite how despicable the Big 10 becomes. I’m willing to accept that, and think Ohio State and Oregon will be a fun match-up. But I have good reason for changing the match-ups around a little.

My problem with the TCU vs. Boise State match-up is that it won’t prove anything except who is the best “small college” school in the country. But for arguments sake, instead of calling it “Small College”, lets go with “Can’t Possibly Win a National Championship College” – because that better describes the them and their situation. If you put Boise State or TCU up against Florida, and the other up against Cincinnati – then you would have two great “CPWaNCC’s” against two bigger and more distinguished schools (though the Big East has almost as little respect as the “small conferences”). That would give the small colleges a chance to prove themselves against top competition, and it would, maybe in the future, give them more respect with voters. The problem with a match-up like this is that it would have a chance of doing exactly what I suggested, making the “other” colleges gain some respect, and thus giving them a chance at the National Championship. Oh, you don’t think that’s a problem? Too bad for us, because “the Man” does.

Unfortunately for me, they probably got the match-ups right on the dot, based solely on the quality of teams. BYU and TCU have proven to me that they are 2 of the top 4 teams in the Nation, and if they can’t play for the National Championship, that means that, in my book, they are the next two best teams and thus should play each other. Cincinnati is very good, but I believe they are 2nd to both of the colleges that can’t possibly win a national championship. Florida might be the best team in the Nation, but laid an egg last week, getting absolutely handled by Alabama, thus losing their chances for a Top spot. I don’t think Texas is as good people give them credit for, but being a “Big Conference” school, and undefeated, will put them in the Big game, and it’s hard to argue with that.

The biggest problem with this is the match-ups are right. Football-wise, talent-wise, they are probably all right. It’s terrible that BYU and TCU are proving their worth against each other, an impossible task considering the only thing they could possibly do to prove their ability would be to oust a top ranked “Big College” team. But it’s probably right. I would rank them 2 and 3, (ahead of Texas), based on what I’ve seen from all three teams this year – so they are the next best teams, and that’s what a Bowl should be looking for. But give them a chance to fight for the small schools, come on. It may be the right match-up (Kudos to “them” for getting something right), but it’s wrong on every other level, and gives two of the best teams in the country almost nothing to gain with a win in January.

New Mexico Lobos vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview

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New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview: This game opened at 41, and I thought that was a little high – at three popular sports books you can get this game at +45, and that’s a big point and a half – it moves the margin up and over the largest margin of victory that the Horned Frogs have had all season. What else? The Lobos haven’t lost by 40 points all season long.

The Lobos may be 1-10, obviously they aren’t a good football team, but that record doesn’t mean they can’t cover a spread of magnanimous proportions such as this. The Lobos lost by just 5 to BYU and beat Colorado State last week. In each of the last 9 meetings, the final score hasn’t approached 45 points. New Mexico has played their best football latel – that also helps. What else? There’s nothing for the Lobos to lose –  they have had a terrible season, and if they can make a game of it against the highly ranked Horned Frogs, it would be the highlight of their season. That’s something, I’m telling you – it’s probably not worth an upset, but it’s certainly worth 40+ points.

This line is inflated by 10 points. TCU has never been favored by more than 20 points in this match-up, and not only that, but the spread hasn’t been in double digits in any of the last 8 years. None. The Lobos record is bad, but a lot of things can go into that. New Mexico isn’t this bad.

Week 14 College Football Picks Review: 2006

It started off rocky, but in the end, an even record found it’s way into the record books, heading into an exciting December in college football…

Army @ Navy (-19.5): LOSS!
The Rivalry game got me here, what can you do? I thought Navy had the beans to annihilate Army, but as it turned out, the game was close throughout.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+3) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: WIN!
How about the Deacons? On their way to a BCS Bowl game, and all that money for their program. It’s wonderful to see, you know, relatively unknown programs taking it to the ACC. Fantastic, especially when it benefits me.

Connecticut Huskies (+27.5) @ Louisville Cardinals: LOSS!
The Huskies couldn’t hang with a very powerful Cardinal team. Louisville should win their next game as well, bringing a little more appreciation to the Big East.

Air Force Falcons (+17.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs: LOSS!
My Falcons played poorly in a big loss to the Horned Frogs. I thought this was going to be a big win for me, but in the end, the Horned Frogs slammed the door shut on a winning week in college for good ol’ Lucky.

Stanford Cardinal @ California Bears (-28.5): LOSS!
Stanford almost pulled a quick one on the Bears. In the “other” California game that was going down on Saturday, the Bears almost got caught watching USC get downed by UCLA, but they pulled out a close one late, making me a loser again.

Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Jose State Spartans (-3.5): WIN!
San Jose showed why they were a winning team this year, and making it to a nice little bowl game. Fresno lost again. I won a big one.

USC Trojans (-12.5) @ UCLA Bruins: LOSS!
My last loss of the day came when the Bruins ousted the Trojans, in turn making me smile from ear to ear. I thought the Trojans would win easily, but hoped above all else that they’d fail. A win win, I guess. Yeehaw! Dang it! Something in that order.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+10) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: WIN!
Rutgers couldn’t’ quite pull out the big upset, as they fell to the Mountaineers by two points in the 3rd overtime of a game that made me late to dinner with the woman. She understood… Right. Anyway, the Knights kept hopes of a .500 Saturday alive by covering.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5): WIN!
The Sooners won, and just made me think what would have been had they not gotten hosed by Pac 10 officials in a lost that should have been a win against the Ducks. Would the computers have picked OK over Florida if each team had one loss? Who cares, both teams would lose to the Buckeyes.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Florida Gators (-3): WIN!
Florida won to give me my .500 record I was searching for after losing 5 out of my first 7 Week 14 games. The Gators took advantage of the Razorbacks’ shotty quarterback play, and won their way all the way to the National Title game in Arizona.

Regardless of a “rematch” or a “non conference champ playing for a National Title” I’m interested to see which team the public, or the sports-writers, or the coaches, would vote as the 2nd best team in the country. A 3 point loss to Ohio State in Ohio. I don’t think Florida will make that good of a game out of it. I think Boise State should have gotten a chance. Ideally, Florida wins, barely, and Boise State dominates the Sooners. Then maybe, just maybe, Boise would be the champs. And what a champ they would be!

Free NCAA Football Picks Week 14 – 2006

The Regular season is nearly over, and I’ve got to get some big wins to pad the stats for next year. How abouts will I do that? Check it out in my NCAA Week 14 Free Picks….

TOP 5 Bets

  1. USC
  2. Wake Forest
  3. Navy
  4. Nebraska
  5. Florida

Army @ Navy (-19.5):
Navy has won the last 4 contests, never by less than 19 points. Army has lost games by 19 or more points 3 times this season, and haven’t covered the spread in any of their last 7 games. Navy has been solid all year, something I’m sure they won’t let get to their heads in this huge rivalry game. Rivalries are tough to play, but Navy has the team to dominate.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+3) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:
GT’s inability to score points will kill them against the Demon Deacons. Everyone was betting on Wake to fold all year long, but now they have a chance to take the ACC Title and swim into a BCS Bowl Game. Watch it unfold before your eyes.

Connecticut Huskies (+27.5) @ Louisville Cardinals:
UCONN has actually played pretty well of late, never losing by more than 6 in their last 3 games, and they haven’t lost a game by 28 points or more all season long. Sure, they have 3 wins, but their record doesn’t show how well they’ve played against some tough teams.

Air Force Falcons (+17.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs:
Despite their 4-7 record, Air Force has played decent football all year long. Their schedule was tough. I like TCU to continue on their winning path, but Air Force should be able to hang around long enough to cover this big spread.

Stanford Cardinal @ California Bears (-28.5):
Against similar competition this year, the Cardinal haven’t faired too well. But with a 1-10 record, and a 2-9 ATS, how can you? Oregon State beat Stanford by 23, USC shut them out 42-0, Arizona State won by 35, UCLA shut them out 31-0, and Navy even smoked Stanford by 28 points. So, as much as the Bears struggled against USC, I’ve got to take them here, in what should be a 42-0 drumming.

Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Jose State Spartans (-3.5):
The 7-4 Spartans host the Bulldogs in a season where these two programs have switched positions. Fresno State has found three straight wins, after starting the season 0-7, but still fails to cover. 1-10 ATS for the Bulldogs. This is the Spartans first real chance to beat the Bulldogs in some time, I’ll take them on Saturday.

USC Trojans (-12.5) @ UCLA Bruins:
This game disappoints too often for me to take the Bruins. Even when UCLA is good, USC always manages to embarrass the Bruins. USC has too much riding on this game, and UCLA has too many pretty boys to touch up the Trojans in the final game of the season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+10) @ West Virginia Mountaineers:
I just have to take the underdog in the crazy Big East. West Virginia has more offensive talent than anyone in the conference, and probably anyone in the country with Pat White and Steve Slaton, but Rutgers has it. And underdogs seem to rally and upset in this conference. The Knights have just won. All season long. Sure one loss, but look at their solid wins. Louisville, UCONN, Pitt, Navy, South Florida, even Illinois is decent. Sure, they play in a lousy conference, but they are a good team, and they have a chance at a BCS Bowl Bid.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5):
Nebraska has been good since losing to USC, oh and that little mix up couple of weeks against Texas and OK State. Wait, who have they beaten this year? Yes, tell me a god team they’ve handled. Missouri? Colorado? Texas A&M? They’re in for something, because if it weren’t for the referee “hey-ooo, whoops, Oregon Ball!” fiasco, the Sooners would be bidding for a spot against the Buckeyes. Oklahoma’s good. A double digit win at home against Nebraska. That’s my prediction.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Florida Gators (-3):
After last weeks quarterbacking play from Mr. Dick and the Razorbacks (their best QB-ing was when their start RB, McFadden, stepped up and took shot gun snaps) I can’t take them to upset the Gators in The Swamp. Florida has two signal callers that could push their team to victory in this one, and both will probably make big plays to do so. Chris Leak hasn’t been as good as I thought he’d be, but he’s still a leader, and the Gators will oust the Razorbacks.