Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Texas Lonhorns @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick

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Texans Longhorns (-8.5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick: I like the Cowboys, like their confidence and numbers, I just don’t think it’s real. Not against good teams anyway. The Cowboys are 6-1 but they’ve had to fight a very easy schedule for wins, Baylor, Texas A&M, Rice, and Grambling don’t strike fear into my heart, and you should consider that when you’re looking at those 6 wins. 6 wins, sure, looks nice, but against who? The Cowboys’ best win? I’d say a marginal Missouri team. Texas, on the other hand, they haven’t looked like a Top team in the nation this year either, but they have won, and they’ve had to go through Oklahoma, Texas Tech,  at Missouri, and a pretty decent Colorado team. They are the better team here, no doubt in my mind, and with Dez Bryant suspended for the season, and more importantly this game, that game breaking presence isn’t going to help bail the Cowboys out. This game could be over quick, or it could take a little while, either way there will be a time when Oklahoma has their spirits broken, and that’s a good sign for a Texas cover. The Longhorns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Texas is 10-0 in their last 10 games against Oklahoma State, they are 7-3 ATS in those games, 4-1 ATS on the road. The last two games have been decided by 7 total points.

Free NCAA Football Picks: Week 14

A little late this week, and I hope you can get on some of these games. My Week 13 follow up to my awesome Week 12 was not what I hoped it would be. In fact, it was down right piss. On to some better leads this time around. I hope your Turkey Day got you good like it got me. 

Washington State Cougars @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-28): I know I said last week that the Warriors hadn’t beat anybody by more than 20 points, and thus they were a bad play, but I think they are the type of team that will slowly pound the Cougars into a 30 point hole. I like Hawaii to cover at home in this one. I know Hawaii is a great place to go when you call Pullman, Washington home this time of year – but I have a feeling this trip will be more about celebrating a win over the Husky’s than a well played game against Hawaii. 

Notre Dame “Fighting” Irish @ USC Trojans (-30): I don’t think the Trojans are as great as everyone else thinks they are, but they kill bad teams – lets be honest. They have 11 athletes on both sides of the ball that can take poor steps, get fooled, and still get back to make the play after a small gain. I wouldn’t be surprised if USC shuts out the Dame – in fact, I will be surprised if the Irish get anywhere close to an end zone offensively. 

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers (-3): I like the Beave in this one. It may or may not be because my cousin was a professional Beaver for quite some time, and it may or may not be because he owns a fan bus that does work at every Beaver home game – but look at what we have here. A Beaver team that has crap stomped everyone at home, and the home team has won this battle in 9 of the last 10 seasons – and it was OSU that took the Ducks on the road last year. I know the injury issues, and I know the Beavers have more riding on this game than Oregon does, but I still like the Beave here. Plus their mascot is a freaking Beaver for God’s sake – that’s worth a look if nothing else. 

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7.5): Really? More than a touchdown in this rivalry game? Both teams are very good, don’t be confused. I think people must be seeing Oklahoma’s beatdown of Texas Tech and immediately making the comparison and contrast and saying, “If Tech beat Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma destroyed Tech, then this game should be over before it starts.” That’s not how it works. Oklahoma is very good, but OK State is a lot different than the Raiders – and this game should be closer, especially on the road, and especially against a Cowboys team that has everything to win and nothing to lose. 

Auburn Tigers (+14.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: Too much going on in the helmet’s in Alabama to truly destroy the Tigers in this one. Alabama isn’t a destroyer type team – and I like this one to play closer. 

Houston Cougars @ Rice Owls (+3): I like the Owls to win outright, obviously. Both of these teams are home town hero type clubs, undefeated on their respective home fields, and both are offensive juggernauts. I like the home team to pull this one out. I’d say they are equal talent clubs with the home field advantage meaning a lot more than you’d think. 

Florida State @ Florida Gators (-16): I know it’d be cool to take the road team Seminoles here, and they have played much better lately, but I’m done betting against the Gators, even in this supposed “let down” game zone. The Gators haven’t had a game closer than 4 touchdowns since their loss to Mississippi. And they’ve beaten some big time programs. This team is FAST. 

Kansas Jayhawks (+16) @ Missouri Tigers: I like the Jayhawks to score enough against Missouri to cover this spread. Both of these offenses can put lots of points on the board, and while Missou’s offense is the better of the two, I’m not sure the Tigers are much better defensively. I like my chances of staying within a couple touchdowns. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (+1) @ Clemson Tigers: I know there hasn’t been much consistency from the Gamecocks, except this, they win most all of the games they are supposed to, and they beat the teams they are even with. Except maybe Vandy (and Vandy was pretty dang good before their whole team started to go down with injuries in mid-October) the Gamecocks have beaten everybody they are equal to or better than. That’s Clemson to a T. Clemson isn’t Florida or LSU or Georgia. Clemson is Arkansas and Tennessee and Mississippi. Clemson is the type of team South Carolina beats by two touchdowns. Even on the road, I like them here.

NCAA DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Free Picks: Week 9

It looks like I’m favoring the road teams in these ones – see if we cant’ do work with this group of covers. 

Boston College @ North Carolina (-3): Analysis in my Free Picks section. 

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies (+2.5): I think this is the game that Cincinnati’s quarterbacking injuries comes back to haunt them. The Huskies are solid, they are playing at home, and while they are hurting at quarterback as well, I think they will win the rushing battle and this game. 

Central Michigan Chippewas (-4) @ Toledo: CMU QB Dan LeFevour is my hero and I will give him the nod in this one. He played a heck of a game last week against Western Michigan and I like the Chipps to build on that momentum. Toledo beat Michigan but I’ll say it just one more time – so what?

Fresno State Bulldogs (-14) @ Utah State Aggies: I’ll warn you that somewhere over 70% of the public is on the Bulldogs here and the lines are still moving up and away. Maybe it’s not as easy as I see, but even with the Bulldogs’ troubles, Utah State is this bad. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+12.5) @ Texas Longhorns: I would and am staying away from this game – but if you must have my slight leaning opinion, I’ll take the underdogs +12.5. Oklahoma State looks like they have the make-up to at least stay close to Texas, and a touchdown and a field goal behind still wins them this one. Texas has played amazing football and I hate to bet against them again (they’ve taken it to me a couple weeks in a row now), but I’ll take the dog – Plus, I’m a man, so I have something in common with the Cowboys head coach – yhatzee!

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ California Golden Bears: In conference against non-Washington Pac 10 teams I just can’t take the Cal Bears as huge favorites. Everyone in this conference (sans WA Schools and USC) are pretty even – UCLA stays close in this one. 

South Florida (-4) @ Louisville: Analysis in my Free Picks section.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles are talented, sure, but the Hokies are too, and they’re coached better. I like the Hokies to keep the upset happy ACC conference fully intact this week. 

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies (-7.5): The Huskies have three losses, all to very solid teams. They recently beat the Miami of Ohio team that Bowling Green just lost to. I know that doesn’t mean much, but I like NIU – they are solid. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish has played mistake free football, if he keeps that up his Huskies should win by a couple scores. 

New Mexico State Aggies (-12.5) @ Idaho Vandals: Yes sir, the Vandals are even this bad. Since they are very close, I’m going to go ahead and link them into my “always bet against Washington sports” philosophy. We’ll see how that works out. 

Mississippi Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5): Both of these teams make a gaggle of mistakes just about every time they step foot on the field. They are both 3-4 and the loser of this one likely sits out the bowl season (or so that’s how I see it). One thing I like about the home team here, their 4 losses this season come at the hands of Alabama, Florida, Texas, and a 1 point loss to Kentucky. Maybe they aren’t as bad as I thought they were. I’ll take them here. 

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Monroe (+2.5): In conference home dog – I’ll take it. I like UL’s signal caller, that’s enough for me to lean on the home dogs here. 

Kentucky (+26) @ Florida: Analysis in my Free Picks section.

Nevada Wolfpacks @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+3.5): Hawaii is at home against a Nevada team that has 4 unimpressive wins over unimpressive opponents. I’ll take Hawaii. They look to be getting it together a little behind their new coach.

Free NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

Here we are! It’s August 25th, 2008 and NCAA football games are just a few short days away. Summer is on the way out, and fall is just about to turn the leaves red. That means school for you young scholarly types and just colder weather for the rest of you – but it also means football! It all starts with a little NCAA action. For Week 1 I went ahead and picked out 10 winners… Enjoy the first edition of my NCAA Free Picks for 2008…

Thursday’s Games

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (-4): (7:30pm EST, 8-28-2008)

Vanderbilt loses their best player in wide receiver Earl Bennett. He was by far their most effective and productive offensive player. Their leading returning receiver is out with a stress fracture (George Smith). If that weren’t enough, the Commodores also said goodbye to their leading rusher from last year, as well as their entire starting offensive line – that’s the kicker. Miami has a stout defense with very talented linebackers. They may be a smaller college, but they can play football. The Commodores don’t have much cohesion right now, as new starters are still being decided. The starting quarterback for this Thursday’s game wasn’t decided by the weekend, leaving much to be answered in the four days before kickoff. While Vanderbilt has all the questions, Miami of Ohio looks to be full of answers.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-12) @ Baylor Bears: (8:00pm EST, 8-28-2008)

Wake Forest is the real deal. Despite winning 8 of their last 10 games and then spanking Connecticut in the 2nd half of their bowl game, the Deacons just can’t seem to get the credit they deserve. THe Deacons return their freshman quarterback sensation, Riley Skinner, and while they lose their top receiver from ’07, Wake is full of young talent at receiver. Head coach Jim Grobe knows what he’s doing. The Deacons are off and on on the road, but they’ve been a darn good football team with Riley Skinner at quarterback. I expect them to start off the season hot, and ride their quarterback to the top of the ACC. Take them over the Bears by a couple touchdowns.

Oregon State Beavers (-3) @ Stanford Cardinal: (9:00pm EST, 8-28-2008)

The Oregon State Beavers seem like the forgotten Pac-10 team heading into the season. Everyone seems to forget that the Beavers won 7 of their last 8 games including an upset victory over Maryland in their bowl game. During the last 8 games of the season, the Beavers’ only loss came against USC in Southern California. Last year, when the Beavers played Stanford, a tough Oregon State defense held the Cardinal out of the end-zone, winning 23-6. The Beavers lost their talented tail-back, Yvenson Bernard, to graduation – but they have a nice offensive line and a couple new running backs that have impressed when given the chance. One player that should have a great bounce back season is Sammie Stroughter, the speed demon that was a 2006 3rd team All-American. With family problems and injury woes, Stroughter struggled in 2007, playing only 3 games. He was awarded a medical red-shirt, and now he has one more chance to prove himself in the Pac-10. Every time he touches the ball, touchdowns can happen. Look for the Beavers to out-talent the Cardinal all over the field, dominating this early-season conference match-up.

Friday’s Game

Temple Owls (-7) @ Army Black Knights: (7:00pm EST, 8-29-2008)

Temple, amazingly, won 4 of their last 7 games, have three Pre-Seasons All Conference players returning, and were voted “Program on the Rise” by the MAC conference. They return their leading passer and an offensive line that found cohesion late last year. Defensively, Temple is better than expected, as Army will find out. Army switched their entire offense around this summer, moving from a no-huddle spread to an option based rushing attack. When that happens originally, teams seem to struggle because of the recruiting differences for offenses like that. I never thought I’d consider taking a Temple team on the road and favored by a touchdown, but that’s exactly what I’m doing and I’m confident about it.

Saturday’s Games

Bowling Green Falcons (+13) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (12:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Bowling Green Falcons bring 17 of 22 starters back to a team that is expected to compete for a WAC crown this season. The Falcons won 5 of their last 6 regular season games in 2007 before getting absolutely crushed in their bowl game against Tulsa. I like that last part. The Falcons have waited all summer, 17 returning starters and many other frustrated kids, to get back on the football field and prove that bowl game was a fluke. In comes the Panthers with one of the best running backs in the Nation and a former pro-football head coach. I like the Falcons’ chances – take them and all those points.

Akron Zips @ Wisconsin Badgers (-26): (12:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

As if going into Wisconsin to play the 12th ranked team in the Nation wasn’t a tough enough opener, the Zips have really struggled with injuries during football camp. With a couple junior college transfers and position battles being effected by these injuries, the Zips preparation time for a tough Wisconsin team will be shortened. The Badgers return big names, it seems, when looking at their 2008 starters. P.J. Hill, the ultra talented tailback, and Travis Beckum, one of the most highly touted TEs in college football. Defensively, the Badgers are senior laden with an elite linebacking crew. It may be his first season as a starter, but senior quarterback Allen Evridge has been around for a while. Look for the Badgers to lean heavily on the run and really pound it to the Zips.

Utah Utes (+3.5) @ Michigan Wolverines: (3:30pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Utes are very good and should win their conference this season. Michigan lost too many good players and are in the midst of a complete turn-around with their new head coach, Rich Rodriguez. I don’t know what else to say besides this, Utah is the better team with a better mentality and they also have nothing to lose in this one. Sign me up for that every single week.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6) @ Washington State Cougars: (3:30pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Cougars weren’t very good a year ago, usually open the season soft, don’t have much of a home-field advantage during the first few weeks of the college football season, lost their star quarterback to graduation, and don’t have much confidence either. Hmm… I don’t like Pac-10 teams that open their seasons against tougher conferences, and that’s what I think this is. The Cowboys might not finish above .500 and they’ll probably look really bad in some games – but not this one. This is a team that, last year showed they can play tight with Kansas and Texas, beat Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Indiana – so I surely like them against the Cougars.

Michigan State Spartans (+5) @ California Golden Bears (8:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

This isn’t me loving the Spartans as much as me down on the Bears. Cal has a super talented and amazingly fast sophomore running back in Jahvid Best, but besides that I’m not too impressed. They are supposed to have one of the top rated offenses in the Pac-10, but without a quarterback to deliver the bread, I’m not sure that will be the case. Michigan State’s defense isn’t dynamic, but I think they’ll stack the box and make Cal’s quarterbacks beat them. That’s what will be the undoing of the Bears in Week 1, I just don’t think they can beat the Spartans through the air.

Idaho Vandals @ Arizona Wildcats (-27): (10:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

It seems like a lot of points, and it is, but I just have a feeling the Wildcats are going to go off for about 45 points in this one. They always run the ball hard and Idaho consistently can’t stop anybody else’s ground game. The Wildcats finished the season well, beating Washington, UCLA, and Oregon before losing to ASU by 3 points. The Wildcats really played well all season last year, losing to Stanford by 1, USC by 7, Oregon State by 2 scores. I like the Wildcats to get a little luck to sway their way this season – but that shouldn’t matter against the Vandals. Idaho was 1-11 in the WAC last season, and I expect much of the same this time around. This game wouldn’t surprise me if it was a 45-7 WIldcat blowout.