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Connecticut Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Connecticut Huskies (+6) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: The Huskies luck just has to turn at some point. When you think about the talented teams they’ve had to play over the last handful of weeks, and the way they’ve played close with in every single loss, and then the terrible times they’ve had to go through as a team, one would have to believe some sort of justice is on the way for the Huskies. When would be a better time than against an Irish team that has lost their token luck?

Not only is the timing right, but the Huskies look like the better team to me. I know it’s being played in South Bend, and I know a lot’s on the line for the Irish and their head coach’s job – but so what, the same can be said for the last two weeks, and no wins came from those games.

Who has Notre Dame beat this year? Washington State, Washington (with BS calls to aid them to overtime- the luck of the Irish, if you will), Purdue, Michigan State, and Nevada. They also beat Boston College, easily their best win of the year. The Irish have won 2 games by more than a touchdown. Washington State (quite possibly the worst team in College Football) and Nevada (to open the season).  Thanks for the scheduling, but I’m not impressed.

To be honest, I’m more impressed with UConn’s losses than Notre Dame’s wins. North Carolina by 2. Pittsburgh by 3. West Virginia by 4. Rutgers by 4. Cincinnati by 2, 45-47. The heart break hasn’t stopped for the Huskies since their teammate was murdered. But they are a good team. They fight with the best of them. I like them to continue their stellar play and turn their recent tough-luck around.

College Football Betting: NCAA Week 11 2009 Review

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I put together another winning Week in NCAA football, and it’s all starting to come together. This week I took games from Tuesday to Sunday, and I found a lot of winners in big conference match-ups, finishing 9-6 overall. What will a crazy Week 12 bring? Lets check out the review for Week 11 first. Here goes!

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Ohio Bobcats (+3) @ Buffalo Bulls: (WINNER) The Bobcats may have needed a late field goal to get the win, but they outplayed the Bulls – and that’s why they got the win. It’s always good to start out with a victory.

Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas: (Loss) This is what I get for picking against the Chipps. CMU put up 28 points in the 2nd quarter alone, tying the Rockets totals for the entire game. Toledo just couldn’t get it going, got some tough breaks, had a couple dropped balls, and just flat out couldn’t stop Dan LeFevour. The Chipps won by 28. That was 13 too many for me!

Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+3) (Loss) This was tied at halftime, 14-14. That didn’t last too long into the second half as Bowling Green came out throwing, and defensively shutting down the Redhawks. 21 unanswered points later, the Falcons took me down, ousting Miami-Ohio 35-14. Sorry about this one.

South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1): (WINNER) The Scarlet Knights dominated this game. Face it, with Tom Savage at quarterback, these Knights are very efficient, look how they’ve played since he became the starter. They are 7-1 with just a loss to Pittsburgh. They deserve more credit, until they get that, they have nice value.

West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats: (WINNER) West Virginia battled all night with the Bearcats. Some will say that WVU had a late and seemingly meaningless score, ha, they played the Bearcats tough all game long, and were in it from start to finish, just like I said, 10 was too much.

Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack: (WINNER) C.J. Spiller: best college football player I’ve seen this year. He almost outscored the Wolf Pack all by himself, throwing, rushing for, and catching a touchdown, Spiller was responsible for 3 TDs – the Pack scored just 23. If it was just C.J. versus the Pack, it would have been close, but Spiller got to use his teammates to help on Saturday, proving to be too much for N.C. State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils: (WINNER) The Yellow Jackets annihilated the Blue Devils, showing that while the Duke program is improving, they have a long way to go. GT just had too much power and swag, dominating this contest all the way through.

Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers: (Loss)The Wolverines weren’t looking so bad going into half, down just 21-17, but the Badgers did work in the second half, scoring 24 points to the Wolverines’ 7. One has to wonder how long Coach Rodriguez will have that job in Michigan. Maybe Notre Dame will hire him?

Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3): (Loss) After being up 13-10 going into the half, the Commodores remembered how they collected those first 8 losses on the season, and sure enough, the managed to duplicate the feat and give up 14 points in the 2nd half while scoring none. When you pick teams that lose, sometimes they manage to show you exactly why they do so.

Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears: (Loss) The Cats really ruined a chance for a big match-up further down the line, and a chance to really take their program up a notch when they just flat out didn’t make big plays against the Bears. Cal played like they wanted it more, if was definitely a tough one to stomach, despite the competitiveness of the game and the close score, I think this Arizona team should beat the Bears 8 of 10 times they play. This was one of those two…

Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11): (WINNER) I said the line wouldn’t matter here, and I was dead on, just like I wrote, the Beavers were the Huskies worst nightmare, further proving that while the Huskies can hang around against throwing teams, these running powerhouse’s just dominate the Dawgs.

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) The Bruins did everything I thought they’d do, dominate the Cougars from snap to end game, and they did it a lot of ways. In my write up I said, “just because teh Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+” and I couldn’t have called it better. I also mentioned that if the game was “any closer than 35-10 I would be absolutely stunned”. Not stunned.

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3.5): (WINNER) I really liked the Tar Heels chances with capitalizing on Miami mistakes, and just like I predicted, that became a huge part of this game. The Heels didn’t keep it as low scoring as I imagined, but that’s because they put up tons of points against the Canes. A nice upset on the road for a growing Tar Heel program.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (WINNER) The Irish were outmatched and out-manned in this one, but they fought back late to get me the cover. An Irish loss, a cover for me – it couldn’t get much better. What did I learn from this game? If Charlie Weis has a job in football next season, he has Golden Tate to thank, because without that guy’s turbo button, I think the Irish wouldn’t have made a bowl game this year.

East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5): (Loss)Tulsa not only lost, they got smacked around. Favored by 5 against an East Carolina team that couldn’t seem to muster an ounce of offense last week was too much for them. ECU’s defense scored more than Tulsa’s offense – never a good sign. Sunday NCAA loss for me.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick: This game opened at -6.5 but was up to -7.5 on Tuesday morning when I sent out my Just Picks newsletter, obviously I’m stoked on getting that extra point. Losing by a touchdown still gets me a win, and the way Notre Dame has fought back in games this year, that extra half point might just come in handy. I still think Notre Dame is good value at +7 – they have more of an offensive air attack than anything Pittsburgh has seen this year, and that’s coming from a guy that can’t stand Notre Dame.

Pitt Panther starting QB, Bill Stull, has been absolutely great. Jimmy Clausen has been even better. I love to hate the kid and his “big name” style, but Clausen has been awesome this season. He’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, completing 68% of his passes – and you have to admire those 2770 yards through 9 games. Stull might not have as many touchdowns or yards, but he’s been key to the Panthers 8-1 season thus far. He should find plenty of room to make Notre Dame suffer this Saturday.

I think Pitt is the better team, but not by as much as everyone else seems to. Remember, even in losses, the Irish have played close. They’ve lost 0 games by more than a touchdown, and I have to believe there are a couple teams on their schedule that could give Pittsburgh a run. The Panther struggled against UConn and Rutgers a few weeks ago. They lost outright to N.C. State, of all teams, as Russell Wilson destroyed them for 4 passing touchdowns. Jimmy could do that. 7.5 is great value, 7 is solid too – I hope the Irish get embarrassed, but my money’s on a close game.

Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11) Free Pick: I normally don’t think much of Notre Dame’s chances to cover double digit spreads. They play heaps of close games, are greatly overrated, and spend way too much time throwing the ball, which, if you’ve noticed, is a good way not to cover spreads against lesser teams. Now, Navy is a run-centered team, they hardly ever throw the ball and use the ground and pound style to shorten the game and get tough yards. That’s good for covering double digit spreads as well.

However, I’m taking Notre Dame. They are the better team, and have a passing attack unlike anything Navy has had to go against this season. But the main reason I’m taking the Irish here is that Navy’s starting quarterback, Ricky Dobbs, though listed as probable for Saturday’s contest against the Irish, will not be 100%. In Navy’s last game, Dobbs went down early and couldn’t finish the game, giving way to Dayne Crist (who played well) in their loss to Temple. Without Dobbs at 100%, the chances of Navy pulling the upset definitely dwindle.

Throughout their 6 wins so far this season, only against Washington State and Nevada did the Irish win by double digits. That’s amazing, I know, especially when you consider their prolific offense and elite talent, but they haven’t been able to stop many people. I think their defense steps up against Navy, and their offense pours it on.

Washington State Cougars vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Washington State Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27.5): I don’t know why this spread is shrinking, it started at 30 and has moved all the way down past 4 touchdowns. I’m telling you, the Cougars can’t score more than a couple times. I think The Irish will have 6 touchdowns by 2nd quarter. I love to fade the Cougars, and it got me by a couple points last week when they just barely covered against the Bears – but the Irish have a much more dynamic offense than the Bears, and they can really score points quick. I like them to win easily at home in this one, by 6 or 7 touchdowns. I think a lot of sharp bets see that the Irish haven’t beaten up on anyone yet, and they get worried about covering 4 touchdowns. Nobody they’ve played compares to WSU, Nevada would kill WSU, the Irish smoked them 35-0. Don’t look at the Cougars as a Pac-10 big conference team, they will get beat up by most. I love this bet.

NCAA Football Free Picks Review: Week 8 2009

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Well, 7-6 this week for my college football picks, not great but at least I finished up. I had a couple really tough games that I really feel should have covered, Cal against WSU, Army turning into a fumbling problem against Rutgers and falling just short of a cover, and Duke straight dukeing me with their 4 point win as a 4.5 point favorite. Ugh. But like I said, I had more wins than losses despite some tough games – can’t hate that too much. Here’s my review.

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Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) @ Kansas Jayhawks: (WINNER) “This is one of those fantastic situations that shows you how much Top 25 rankings really mean. The Sooners are missing at least 2 First Round NFL Draft picks, one of which won the Heisman Trophy last season, Sam Bradford, and was pretty universally listed as the Top NFL Prospect in all the land heading into the season. They are heading into 6-1, 21st ranked Kansas to play the Jayhawks, and who’s favored? The Sooners, by a touchdown, and get ready for this, they are a good bet. Rankings are a joke, it’s too bad they mean anything at all. I’ll take the unranked road favorites here. Believe it.” And the Sooners killed Kansas, weird. Rankings… JOKE!

Washington State Cougars @ California Golden Bears (-35): (LOSS) This one should have been a cover, easily, but the Bears fell asleep, and lightening struck, all in the same 5 minute portion of this game. After WSU threw a 68 yard touchdown pass, Cal did absolutely nothing as promptly as possible on the next series, giving WSU just enough time to toss another TD before the half. In the 2nd half, the Bears had no reason to hurry, they scored just enough to not get a cover, I hate both these teams. There it is.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Army Black Knights (+10): (LOSS) A great thing about Army is that they rarely turn the ball over. They don’t make dumb throws, they run the ball hard and gain yardage the tough way. And they did that on Friday Night, they just couldn’t hold onto the ball. A couple tough fumbles stopped drives deep in Rutgers territory, and Army doesn’t have a chance if that happens. Playing from behind – not their strength. Still it was just 20-10 after three quarters, and Army definitely had their chances to cover. Rutgers did enough, and I got the loss.

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Oregon Ducks (-8.5) @ Washington Huskies: (WINNER) This one was just too easy. In fact, take this advice, if the Huskies are facing a prolific rushing attack, they are a great fade! Oregon mauled the Dogs, and I was pretty impressed with everything the Ducks did offensively in the second half. In the first half this one was close, but they took to running the ball and finding wide open places in play action, never looking back after an early 3rd quarter score.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+2) @ Michigan State Spartans: (WINNER)  “The Hawkeyes have gotten by in ugly fashion, sure, and they are probably due for a loss, but their fights have shown me how resilient they are, and that alone is worth a small bet to me, especially against a Spartan team that is also due to have a tough go of it after three straight wins. Against my normal system play (unrated favorite over ranked dog is almost always a bet on the favorite) but I like Iowa’s chances on the road.” Obviously the Hawkeyes probably have no place in the Top 5 in the Nation, but they do find a way to win, and while it is almost always ugly, there’s something to be said about getting a win despite all odds against you. This was what I expected it to be, to the last minute, the one where Iowa got the W.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-4) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER)  “In two games against decent teams this season (Iowa and Michigan State) the Wolverines were out-gained in total yardage. They lost both of those games. Penn State has out-gained every single opponent they’ve played so far this season. I’m just saying.” It’s things like this, that when I find them, it makes me wish I could find that great statistic headed into every match-up. Some teams need that ball control to win games, the Wolverines need to keep their defense off the field. If you out-gain them, you have a great chance of winning. Easy victory here.

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Boston College Golden Eagles (+8) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: (WINNER) The Eagles struggle when teams have the ability to run the ball with speed and power. That’s not the Irish. Sure, they have some talent, and some big boys up front, but when it comes right down to it, they are a foo-foo offense that likes to throw the ball when going gets tough, or right off the bat for that matter. That should allow the discipline Golden Eagles to stay in this game, and cover that 8 point spread against a Irish team with a defense that just can’t get stops. ND might win, with the luck of the Irish and all, but I like the Eagles to cover.

Florida State Seminoles (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels: (WINNER) Florida State made it tough, getting stymied early in this one, struggling offensively, and not stopping the Heels when they needed to. But all evened out in the second half, and that electric Seminole offense that I expected to play well got it together in just enough time to win outright in Carolina, giving me a much needed Thursday Night victory.

South Florida Bulls (+7) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (LOSS) “The Panthers don’t blow good teams out, they aren’t that kid of squad.” One way or another, I was certainly wrong here, maybe every way possible, hell, I don’t know. Pittsburgh is either a lot better than I thought, the Bulls are not as good as I thought, the cards didn’t fall the way I expected, or all three of those things were infinitely true in this one. Either way, I lose, the Panthers jumped all over the Bulls early, and my quote haunts me…

Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5) @ Mississippi Rebels: (LOSS) Arkansas had their chances to keep this game close, and even more chances to get back in it, but they never could make that stop, and Jevan Snead was on his game on Saturday. The Razorbacks couldn’t move the ball at all in the 4th quarter, and found it increasingly difficult to get off the field on defense. This is the Ole Miss team people expected to see through the first 7 weeks… Nice of them to show up here.

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UConn Huskies (+7.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (WINNER) “The Connecticut Huskies are as good as any team West Virginia has played thus far, and the Mountaineers haven’t impressed me with their ability to step on the gas.” This was basically it. UConn is a pretty darn good team, and they played hard from start to finish. A lot of things West Virginia did went well, but they just don’t know how to step on it against a good team. Both teams played well, the Huskies came up a little bit short, but covered easily.

Maryland Terrapins @ Duke Blue Devils (-4.5): (LOSS) How about Duke covering easily in the 3rd quarter up 17-6, Maryland doing nothing offensively all day long – perfect. But wait, this is Duke, and I’m Lucky Lester, and Duke and Lucky Lester don’t go hand in hand. So then Dukes gives up a 67 yard touchdown pass on 3rd and 19. Seriously, they don’t write it better than this. So Duke’s up only, what, 4, yes a point not enough. But wait, Duke is driving in the 4th, in sure to score and cover zone at the 9, and what now? Oh, perfect, a Duke turnover, a 4 point win, no cover for me. Perfect freaking day, Duke wins, I bet on Duke, I lose. Ugh. By a point.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-7.5) @ UTEP Miners: (LOSS) Tulsa played one quarter in this game, the 3rd, and hell, maybe their single quarter of play leaked into the 4th, at which point they were up 11 and looking like they finally figured it out, and on the path to a big win and easy cover. But they forgot they had one more quarter. In that quarter, they allowed 15 points, they scored none, they not only failed to cover, but lost the game altogether. Serves them right!

Boston College Golden Eagles V Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick

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Boston College Golden Eagles (+8) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: The Eagles struggle when teams have the ability to run the ball with speed and power. That’s not the Irish. Sure, they have some talent, and some big boys up front, but when it comes right down to it, they are a foo-foo offense that likes to throw the ball when going gets tough, or right off the bat for that matter. That should allow the discipline Golden Eagles to stay in this game, and cover that 8 point spread against a Irish team with a defense that just can’t get stops. ND might win, with the luck of the Irish and all, but I like the Eagles to cover.

USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Pick

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USC Trojans (-10) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: You can’t get lucky every week, even if you are Irish. Notre Dame has had a lot of help, “officially”, and I doubt that continues against one of the more talented teams in the country. USC took a loss to Washington earlier this year, but they are still 4-1, and still showing dominance against lesser foes. Don’t get it twisted, the Irish are a lesser foe. Remember, USC hasn’t lost a game that Matt Barkley started. A lot of injuries usually kills a team, but a team with the roster talent like USC can do work. I expect Notre Dame to score more than the 3 points Cal put up last week, but Southern California will find plenty of open spaces to put up points against Notre Dame’s porous defense. 35-14, maybe 20, seems right to me. I’ll take the Trojans!

NCAA Free Picks: Week 5

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I’m 9 games over .500 on the season after tallying my third winning week in four chances. I’m staying away from the Trojans Thursday Night game against the Beavers because weird things happen in the middle of the week, but I am starting a day early with a road dog heading into Louisville. Check it out below as I’ve got 9 for Week 5…

Friday’s Game

Connecticut Huskies (+3) @ Louisville Cardinals (8:00pm EST): I know games during the week can be weird, and that’s why I like to stay away from them, but I see a lot of value in the Huskies here. Besides the fact that anything can happen in the Big East, the Cardinals just aren’t the team everyone thinks they are. They struggle against everyone and rarely does a drive look clean from start to finish. Connecticut doesn’t do things pretty either, but they are a lot tougher than Louisville, and their confidence is there. I like the Huskies to pull the minor upset, so 3 points is nice.

Saturday’s Games

Pittsburgh Panthers (-16.5) @ Syracuse Orange (12:00pm EST): I don’t like to bet on the Panthers as favorites, it’s really not my style – but against a team like Syracuse, I’ll take my chances. The Orange are brutal, and I’ve said it before, there’s no easier road game than at Syracuse. Pittsburgh should be able to take their methodical attack and accidentally turn it into a yard gathering machine. I like the Panthers to win this game in the 34-10 range.

Navy Midshipmen (+16) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3:35pm EST): This is a bit of a trap game for the Demon Deacons. They just walked into Florida State and beat the Seminoles as an underdog, and next week they are going up against a Clemson Tiger team that carried a lot of hype into the season. Navy doesn’t seem like much of a challenge, but the Midshipmen can really run the ball, and that physicality can run clock as well as even out the talent level a little bit. I like Navy as a 16 point underdog in a game that’s big for them and a little for Wake Forrest.

Northwestern Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes (-8) (12:00pm EST): The Hawkeyes lost a heart breaker to the Panthers last weekend, but they are the much better team in this game. Northwestern is 4-0, but don’t buy into the record. Games against Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, and Ohio are good ways to build your record to 4-0, but they are bad ways to get your team ready to play conference foes. Iowa won’t take it easy on Northwestern, and their choice to play tough non-conference games like that against Pitt will benefit them in this one.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes (-7) (12:00pm EST): Correct me if I’m wrong, but Miami looked like they got a little of their swagger back last week and now at home against a Carolina team that could be without their leader and best offensive player, T.J. Yates, they can pressure the Heels into lots of mistakes. Even if T.J. plays, he’s not going to be 100%, and if Miami has one thing, they have defensive athletes that can make life tough on a gimpy signal caller. This could be pre-mature, but I’ll take the risk – too many question marks in Carolina’s backfield to ignore the 7 point spread here. Gotta take the Canes.

Buffalo Bulls (+6.5) @ Central Michigan (4:00pm EST): I think the Bulls are the better team, flat out. They smoked UTEP, played well against Pittsburgh, beat a solid Temple team, and played well against a great Missouri squad. I really think they have a chance to take the Mac. Central Michigan is no pushover, and they’ve played well in some games, I just think Buffalo is the better team and so I’ll take them as a near touchdown dog.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers (-24.5) (7:30pm EST): I know I’m not usually a numbers guy, and these numbers aren’t the lone reason I’m taking the Tigers here but I figure I might as well share them with you. Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games. Mississippi State is 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games. Mississippi State is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing LSU. Here are the scores from this match-up lately, LSU first: 45-0, 48-17, 37-7, 51-0, 41-6, 31-13, 42-0. Hmm…. I know LSU’s offense isn’t a dynamic scoring machine, but I think they found a thrower in the young kid that finished the Auburn game last week. I also think they seemingly know how to up their game against the Bulldogs. I’ll take em.

Purdue Boilermakers (+2) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I really can’t believe this. This is a “free money” pick for me. It’s so “free money” that I’m considering not risking a ton on it because it just seems way too good to be true. That Irish team that couldn’t do anything until late when the game was over last week – that’s the real Irish team. Notre Dame didn’t beat Michigan, I’m telling you, they took the win that Michigan gave them. Purdue should handle the Irish even in Indiana.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Nebraska Corhuskers: Hmmm… I might not be the brightest brick in the pool, but I certainly can see some dog value when it eats the food I buy it and craps in my yard. The Cornhuskers really challenged themselves to start the season 3-0. First it was Western Michigan, and then San Jose State, and then New Mexico State. Yikes. The Hokies are getting better every week. They lost to a very tough East Carolina team, then ground out a late win against a tough G-Tech team, and a good Tar Heel team as well. They are ready to dominate the Cornhuskers – you can bet on that. The 6.5 points are just icing on the cake in this one.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 4

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Well Alright! I killed my picks last week, breaking through the proverbial wall to collect 12 wins against just 4 losses. That put me 7 games up and over .500 on the season after a tough Week 3 grabbed me by the crab apples. I can’t explain why anyone would put crab apples in their cheeks, except for the single fact that they are indeed better than other things you could put there. However, I can pick 9 college games – here’s what I see coming up this beautiful weekend.

Temple Owls (+29) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: Don’t tell the Nittany Lions, but Temple is a pretty solid football team. No doubt, the Lions are solid, per usual, but Temple isn’t the pushover those ugly uniforms have been in the past. I always worry about very good teams having to play former terrible teams, like Temple, because of the memories of their worthlessness that still resides. It will take a quarter or two, but eventually Penn State will pull away. That being said, it’s hard to pull away by more than 4 touchdowns. I’ll take the Owls.

East Carolina Pirates (-7.5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: East Carolina is dealing with a couple injury problems, yes, but they are still much better than a very down Wolfpack group. The Pirates lost one of the fastest players in all of football to the NFL, but their team speed is still much greater than this poor ACC team. Nothing’s worse these days than being a bad team in a bad conference. Look for East Carolina to continue their winning ways with a 21 point win at NC State.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: This isn’t free money, the Hawkeyes will have to do some work on defense, but I’m pretty sure this one won’t be coming down to the wire. Pittsburgh is just too inconsistent to put the Hawkeyes in a bind. Iowa might not have the hype this season that they’ve had in years’ past, but they always have a solid program. If Pittsburgh has shown me one thing it’s that they are very overrated. They may have a guy I think is the best running back in college football, but they don’t use him very well, and their loss of Jeff Otah is hurting them right now. Take the Hawkeyes to down the Panthers.

Central Michigan Chippewas @ Purdue Boilermakers (-10): Free Money! I really love this game. Purdue is going to put up about 35 against Central Michigan, and there’s nothing the Chips will be able to do about it. Purdue -10 at home against this team looks so lopsided that it worried me at first. Then I decided that the books just miss one from time to time. Hopefully this one doesn’t get me where it counts.

Central Florida Knights (+10.5) @ Boston College Eagles: I actually really believe that the Central Florida Knights are the better team here. Does that make me crazy or delusional? I don’t know, possibly, but let me tell you this, taking a team that I think is better as a 10.5 point dog feels so right, and gets me so excited, that I think I’m going to go make me a big brilliant lunch and put butter on everything! The Knights pull the upset against yet another hapless ACC unit.

Akron Zips (-10) @ Army Black Knights: I never thought I’d ever be taking the Zips as a favorite, let alone a two score fave – but here I am and I like my chances. Army doesn’t have anything going for them except they are tough. They don’t have Air Force’s talent nor do they have Navy’s rushing attack. All they have is a tough game against the freaking Zips on their hands. Take Akron on the road.

Buffalo Bulls (+34.5) @ Missouri Tigers: Sure, the Tigers have won their last two games by a total score of 121-20, but they didn’t face the Bulls! Ha. This one will be much closer. Buffalo is sneaky, and a pretty solid offense should get them points. If they can score 3 touchdowns, which I think should happen, then Missouri will have to put up more than 54 points to cover. I don’t see that happening. It’s tough to bet against the high scoring Tigers, but given the Bulls are a solid group, it makes it easy to do with a coke and a smile.

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ UCLA Bruins: That whole first game upset that put UCLA back on the map seems to be a long time back – and that map, well, they are still on it, but all four edges are burning back to the ashtray it came from. I’m betting on a solid Wildcats attack to come into UCLA and brow beat them into submission. Okay, they’ll at least run all over the Bruins. Arizona played poorly in a trap game last week, as they were certainly looking ahead to their first Pac-10 showdown. Well, now that they saw UCLA get beat 59-0 they probably aren’t as scared. I’m marking that down as a good thing. We’ll see. I thought Arizona was the much better team to start the season, and one UCLA 59-0 showing against BYU didn’t stop me from thinking that.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans (-8.5): Don’t be confused, Michigan beat Michigan last week, and the Irish just got credit for the win because they were the team lucky enough to be playing them in Week 3. Now comes Michigan State, and they’ll be ready for one of the Nations most popular and disturbingly overrated college programs. The Spartans passing attack is brutal right now, but they won’t need to throw the ball all that much. Javon Ringer is 10 points better than the Irish. Believe that.