New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview: This game opened at 41, and I thought that was a little high – at three popular sports books you can get this game at +45, and that’s a big point and a half – it moves the margin up and over the largest margin of victory that the Horned Frogs have had all season. What else? The Lobos haven’t lost by 40 points all season long.

The Lobos may be 1-10, obviously they aren’t a good football team, but that record doesn’t mean they can’t cover a spread of magnanimous proportions such as this. The Lobos lost by just 5 to BYU and beat Colorado State last week. In each of the last 9 meetings, the final score hasn’t approached 45 points. New Mexico has played their best football latel – that also helps. What else? There’s nothing for the Lobos to lose –  they have had a terrible season, and if they can make a game of it against the highly ranked Horned Frogs, it would be the highlight of their season. That’s something, I’m telling you – it’s probably not worth an upset, but it’s certainly worth 40+ points.

This line is inflated by 10 points. TCU has never been favored by more than 20 points in this match-up, and not only that, but the spread hasn’t been in double digits in any of the last 8 years. None. The Lobos record is bad, but a lot of things can go into that. New Mexico isn’t this bad.