Tag Archives: Wes Welker

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

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Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)

Big Names of Shame

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Okay, maybe I won’t get all those things, but I will get great NFL players for less than their numbers insist. If you’re not picking at the top of your draft then you won’t get LT or AP. If you’re not the one guy making a first round mistake, Tom Brady won’t find his name on your roster either. But that’s okay; you can still dominate your league.

I’ve set up a little versus action below. I have a big name and a small name, both with very similar production and ability. A little comparison and contrast will help you on draft day. Pick the best player on the board, but don’t pick a name – this is a numbers game where sticks and stones don’t do jack and names will put you on your back.

Drew Brees VS David Garrard

From a distance, these two signal callers couldn’t be farther apart. Drew Brees is getting drafted in the 3rd round of most fantasy drafts for the second straight season, while David Garrard, though finally being picked in fantasy drafts, is garnering a 9th round pick on average, or is just about the 94th player taken in Yahoo drafts.

But when you break down the fantasy ability of these two players, things get a little closer. Drew Brees may have the flashier numbers, sure, 28 touchdowns compared to just 18 for Garrard, and 4428 passing yards compared to Garrard’s 2509. You’d think Brees produced a much better fantasy season than David. Not by as much as you’d think. See, Garrard played in just 12 games, counting the game he got hurt. So, his 211 fantasy points over 12 games becomes a lot closer to Brees’ 302.

In fact, Garrard’s points per game total (17.58) was just about one point behind Drew’s total of 18.8 points per game. You might think that Brees is more of a sure thing, and you are probably right, but when it comes to taking Brees or Garrard, you might want to consider the type of receiver you can get in the 3rd round compared to the 9th round. TJ Houshmandzadeh, Colston, Holt, Shad Johnson, Plaxico, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker are all 3rd round picks while Joey Galloway, Cotchery, Santana Moss, and Anthony Gonzalez are all 9th round receivers.

Garrard may still be a little behind Brees, but last year was his first campaign as a starter and he likely has yet to reach his pinnacle. And in my mind, he’s a much better value around the 9th round than Brees is in the 3rd.

Peyton Manning VS Jake Delhomme

Okay, so this comparison isn’t going to trick many people – heck, I’d even take Manning over Delhomme, but for the price, Jake has to be more worthy of a selection. Jake is coming off a major surgery but, get ready for this Colts fans, so is Peyton. In fact, Peyton’s infection in his knee has me more worried about lingering effects then Jake’s elbow. But lets leave injuries aside for just a second and get back to a numbers game.

There was only one quarterback in the NFL that had more fantasy points per game than Jake Delhomme did last season. Yes, you guessed it, Tom Brady. An I know he only played in three games, but Jake put up 24 points per game last season, better than Manning (20.6), Romo (22.2), Big Ben (20.8), or any other quarterback without an S on his chest like Tom.

When you factor in that Manning is getting selected as the 12th pick overall and Delhomme is riding 108 down the street, Jake gets even prettier. In 2004 and 2005 (his last two seasons in which he played all 16 games) Jake tossed 29 and 24 touchdowns respectively. He threw 8 in three games last season.

Listen, I’m not going to say that Manning isn’t a good bet to put up great numbers, he’s the definition of consitency, but Jake has had some nice seasons too, and the additions of Jonathan Stewart, D.J. Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are three more reasons to expect big things out of the Carolina signal caller.

Reggie Bush VS Frank Gore

Okay, I’m kind of cheating here because Reggie Bush and Frank Gore are both big names, and in reality, Reggie is a much bigger name than Frank – but not in fantasy circles apparently. In Yahoo Averages Reggie Bush is getting selected as the 62nd player overall while Frank Gore is getting taken in the 1st round of almost every single league, getting picked in the top 10 in most drafts. It doesn’t seem to matter if it’s a PPR league or a non-PPR league, Gore is still getting selected an average of 4-5 rounds ahead of Reggie.

I like Gore and think his upside this season is grand, but for the first time in his football career, I think people are undervaluing Reggie Bush. In leagues that don’t award points per reception (PPR) Bush still finished just 1 point per game played behind Gore – (10.4 to 11.5). In PPR leagues, it’s Bush that holds a 4 point per game played average over Gore. Now I know Frank played through some injuries during the season, and the 49er offense was abysmal, but Reggie had some struggles too and eventually went out for the season after his 12th game of the year.

Reggie was expected to change the face of the league, be one of the best running backs of all time, and sprint all over the field like Walter and Barry Sanders and LT. And he’s obviously not that type of football player and this season people are out to call Reggie Bush a bust. He hasn’t looked great in the pre-season, but I still expect him to have a solid season, much better than the 60th pick overall.

I would still rank Frank ahead of Reggie, but if you can wait and get Reggie in the 5th or 6th round, you’ve found yourself a steal. Reggie will always be a big part of the Saints offense and if you are in a PPR league, ride Reggie’s bad hype and grab him late, he won’t disappoint.

Earnest Graham VS Steven Jackson

It may be tough to call out Steven Jackson’s bum year in 2007, but I’m not willing to make him the 3rd overall pick in Drafts right now. He’s a question mark, holding out from camp and such, and he’s coming off a very bad season (like most Rams in ’07). I think he’s better than the Jackson we saw in ’07, but to get his services you are blowing a Top 5 overall pick. To garner Earnest Graham’s name on your roster, you can usually wait until the 8th round. To be safe, really go for it and grab him in the 7th. Graham didn’t become a full time starter until Week 7 against the Lions, and he really took off from there.

At 5’9” and 215 lbs, Earnest plays a lot bigger than he is. He can really catch the ball (49 grabs for 330 yards on the season) and he had 5 or more catches in 5 of his last 10 games. Graham rushed the ball 222 times for 898 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry behind an exciting young offensive line in Tampa Bay. Despite not starting and getting big carry totals until later in the year, but still playing in 15 total games, Graham still averaged just two points less per game than Steven Jackson did in Steven’s 12 contests. He produced more fantasy points on less touches (275 for Jackson 271for Graham) though, which should further explain what I’m trying to say.

Steven Jackson has shown what he can do, and he’ll always get selected ahead of Graham as long as he’s in the league, but Graham is a much better value and even has a chance at out-producing Steven over a 16 game season.

Some people are worried about Caddy Williams coming back and stealing touches, but I wouldn’t let that bog me down. Graham has produced better than Williams ever has, and he just signed a new contract that should keep him toting the ball in Tampa. 3rd or 80th – you make the decision.

Wes Welker VS Anquan Boldin

This is a trick because these guys are both steals and you can get them consistently after grabbing guys like Torry Holt and Plaxico BUrress. First of all, Boldin always produces at an unreal pace when he’s on the field. He’s been a little injury prone, but the bottom line is that Matt Leinart loves to throw him the ball, you know, because he fights like hell and always makes a lot out of a little, and he’s always good. He’s getting picked later because Larry Fitz has been overshadowing him for the last couple of seasons, but don’t feel bad about taking him as your #1 or #2 wideout, he’ll produce like one.

Wes Welker isn’t getting much credit for his 112 catch performance from a year ago, but I don’t see why not. Many people don’t expect those numbers again, and I must say, I don’t think he’ll mirror those numbers either – I think he’ll increase his totals across the board. 120 grabs for 1200 yards and 10 scores wouldn’t stun me at all. Listen, the Patriots don’t go sign career special teamers to big long contracts for no reason – they knew what they were doing when they snagged Welker from the Dolphins. New England had a tough time getting Moss singed again, but Welker is already locked away. What does that tell you? You might not have expected Welker to produce like he did, but the Patriots sure did. That should mean something.

Yeah, I do what I want, even change up my own articles and throw the rules right out the window. It’s good to be me.

So there it is, a few versus games that should get you going. All I’m saying is, just because your team looks great on paper doesn’t mean they’ll produce like Fantasy Champs. Believe in the little guy and you shall be set free!