Author Archives: Papa Weimer

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 10

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Week double digits is back – I’m old, I’m white, I’m wealthy – and I still voted Obama – ha! Beat ya…. Alright, alright, in the light of our recent election that had Obama stealing red states, and it being about as lopsided a victory as I’ve seen since Clinton’s second term – I thought I’d print one normal response and a couple of my one liners that I’ve been replying with, some sure thing answers for a sure thing week. gObama!

Darnell Harris from his iPhone writes, “Of these listed wideouts, what three do you recommend starting? Drew Brees is my QB, RB’s are Jacobs, M. Turner, and Chris Johnson. WR’s to choose from are Colston, Jennings, Curtis, Coles, Matt Jones, Mason, and Gage. Big game this week! Any advice is greatly appreciated…”

Thanks for writing in. It looks like you have a solid lineup this week. While Jacobs is going up against a very tough Eagles defense, they seem to have a little trouble against power rushing attacks, and Jacobs is every bit of that. Mike Turner has a nice match-up against the Saints. New Orleans has been better against the run this year, but after Matt Ryan had the best of the Saints last time out, you’d think they try to make life a little tougher for him, Turner is a solid bet. Chicago is solid against the run, no doubt, but Chris and the Titans can run on anyone, and I actually think the Titans run game does alright on Sunday. Drew – great option. Colston and Jennings are sure things to me, both have great secondary match-ups and both are amazing talents that I would start against anyone. I have to believe Colston is back to full health. Your real question here is a 3rd wideout, and I think it’s between Coles (@ St. Louis), Jones (@ Detroit), and Mason (@ Houston) – Gage is alright, but I’m not so sure I’d start him over these three. St. Louis ranks 28th in pass defense but is second worse in yards given up per attempt with 8.7 – so their secondary is BAD. Detroit is 29th, but they give up more yards per pass attempt than anyone in the league, and Houston is actually middle of the pack in the secondary, and I think they’ve been better since Dunta Robinson joined the group. Based on that, I’m eliminating Mason from the wash. Between Jones and Coles, I think Coles is the better player and while Thomas Jones is sure to get lots of action on Sunday, so are the Jaguar running backs agaisnt Detroit’s 31st ranked run defense. The Jags have really struggled late, and you’d have to think they run the ball as much as possible on Sunday. So I guess my final word is Coles. He’s consistent, he seems to be Brett’s favorite target, and on play action pass he should have a couple big plays this weekend. Good luck my man.

Insane Bolt writes, “Have you ever seen a more explosive running back than Chris Johnson?”

Yes – Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Walter Peyton, and Jim Brown – all four were more explosive in different ways – but I love me some Chris Johnson highlights, don’t get me wrong.

Chorizo Bill asks, “In a dynast league who would be your top 10 quarterbacks? I’m thinking the next 4-5 years… I’m not asking who is the best now, or the best value, or anything like that – I’m asking which guys you think will average the most fantasy points over the next 4 to 5…”

Pork Willy; fair enough. Here goes nothing… Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Jason Campbell – that’s 13 but I do what I want… This year I think this is my list for end of season… Brees, Cutler, Warner, McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, Brett Favre, and Chad Pennington…. 11, I know.

Huey LOUIS from Kuai says, “My favorite player to watch these days is Marion Barber – he may not be the fastest but that guys goes all out – who’s your favorite player of all time?

Mike Singletary, pants down and all. That guy was a perfect player.
Too Tall Tim asks, “My kid is a big tall skinny kid, and I’m trying to get him to play football as well as hoops – he just wants to play pretty hoop ball. He says there’s nobody tall that has ever been good (and we’re talking position players here) – is there anybody in the 6’6 range that isn’t a lineman and is an example I could use?
Jason Campbell, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger – all 6’5 – and Joe Flacco is 6’6 – non lineman, non quarterback tall guys? Brandon Jacobs is 6’4 270, but I hardly believe he’s human… Brandon Marshall is 6’4, Matt Jones is 6’6 and he’s not having a bad year, hard to use a guy with coke habits as an example though – Calvin Johnson is 6’5 but like Jacobs he’s a freak of nature… Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, usually pass catching TE’s like those guys are legit examples. All linemen are tall, naturally.
Torrance asks, “If you could start your NFL football team with 5 players, who would they be?”
Mario Williams, Justin Tuck, Albert Haynesworth, Joe Thomas, DeMarcus Ware… I don’t know how I’d play those 4 linemen (and OLB Ware) together, but those four absolute beasts on defense would get me where I wanted to go, and Joe Thomas is a very young and solid cornerstone and offensive tackle. I’ll get skill players later, I almost took Nnamdi Asomugha over Ware but DeMarcus is basically the only guy offenses worry about when they play Dallas and he still ruins everything.
Jameson from Kentucky writes, “Why doesn’t the spread offense work in the NFL?”
Because offense aren’t faster than defenses in the NFL.

Q&A Ask Papa Weimer: Week 9

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We’ll be through the halfway mark after this weekend’s action and there are some burning questions being asked by my valued readers… Here are a few that came up this week.

Johnsonvile from Jacksonville asks, “Okay, so we know Larry Johnson likes to slap a B*!$#, and the Chiefs are doing their best to lose enough to get what they want come draft day, but what does that mean for Larry Johnson for the next few weeks after he gets back? I kind of want to drop the clown and pick up Ryan Torain – what do you think?”

I love me some brats, sir – yummm…. Anyway, I don’t think you lose much by giving Larry the axe for a stretch run that could bonus you a productive kid in Denver’s system. The Broncos might just do alright having a rushing attack, and it’s possible that Torain starts to produce as soon as he gets a look. Now, you know, before he gets 15 carries and goes off, would be a good time to take that chance. LJ the beater is already gone for Week 10, and that leaves only a few weeks for him to make an impact for your team before the playoffs. If you are looking for a way to win a couple games, and you don’t have room to let Larry sit, I’d go ahead and go for a guy like Torain. Maybe even Kevin Faulk or Dominic Rhodes this week instead. But I like Ryan, and I think he has lots of upside. Larry is still running for a bad team – so take a chance if you get the chance. Yum, bratwursts.

Red Red Ryan asks, “I’m in a keeper league and would love to get rid of some age to get some youth – I think there are some good rookies coming up, and I was wondering what you thought about giving up some solid players now for rookie draft picks this year – how’s the class coming up? I have Torry Holt, Hines Ward, and DeAngelo Williams (I know he’s not old, but J-Stewart is behind him).”

Red, the gods still aren’t doing you well, eh? Going down in the dumps, looking for youth? Fair enough – this is what I see from the incoming class…

Studs: Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Percy Harvin: These guys all look to be fantastic pro prospects. Maclin is unbelievable fast and has solid size, Crabtree is a beast and has the physical to play right now, and I can’t say enough about Well, McCoy, and Moreno – and Bey and Harvin are elite prospects as well. 7 good ones if they all come out.

Good with Upside: Sam Bradford, Mathew Stafford, C.J. Spiller, Juaquin Inglesias, Demetrius Byrd, Chase Coffman, Tim Tebow?: I like Bradford a lot, and Stafford has a nice arm, but this group has some questions (besides Chase, he seems solid as an NFL TE) – Even with all Tebow’s skills, I wonder how he projects at the next level – some upside there, sure, but does he have enough with his arm?

Solid, not studs, worth looking at drafting: Javon Ringer, James Davis, P.J. Hill, Derrick Williams, Brian Robiskie, Mark Sanchez, Brandon Pettigrew, Arian Foster: Some good college players here, and some project solid at the next level, I’m just not completely sold on any of them quite yet. Ringer sure works hard though.

Sleepers: Jarrett Dillard, Ramses Barden, Sammy Straughter: These young receivers have all the moves and ability, now we’ll see how they can use it.

Something like that. I don’t know if I’d give Tory away just yet, he might make a return on your investment here in the next couple weeks, but if you can get a younger player with some upside and a 1st round pick, you might want to look at that. He is getting older. Hines has been solid for most of the season, and I think his style of play keeps him active and productive for a while here, but he could be a guy to look at getting a pick for, sure. I think 1st round rookie picks are big, and there looks to be about 10 guys from this class (i’m assuming at least a few of my “upside” guys become really good) that should be there for you with middle round picks. Remember though, young receivers don’t lose much value staying in and while Crab and Maclin and Heyward all have that “now” ability, they could hang out and play some college ball for a while too. As for the running backs, if they are NFL graded they will likely come out, saving some wear on those legs is a smooth move. I would keep DeAngelo around unless you get a good deal for him – he’s a young runner with solid upside. He does a lot of things well and he’s proving that this season. I know he has a stud behind him, but none of the guys you listed are assured to go to a place where they will be the guy. You have a solid youngster in Williams, might as well hang onto him.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 8

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Here you go folks, a couple bright emails sent in from readers and answered by me… Just like that.

David from the Midwest writes, “I need to pick up some receivers but I can’t seem to grasp which one or two I should grab. How would you rank the following Galloway, Bryant, Avery, Morgan, and Walker. Give reasons for how you ranked them. I like Galloway,but Gruden has said Bryant will continue to start. Avery, Walker, and Morgan intrigue me. Let me know.”

Boy, Avery, Morgan, and Walker all kind of interest me too – and for much different reasons. Morgan probably is the biggest sure thing for numbers as he’s supposed to continue his starting ways for the season and Martz seems to love him and you know Mikey is going to throw the rock – but Galloway and Bryant are both good receivers that have proven legit options over the time of their careers. Tough call really. I would rank them like this… Galloway, Morgan, Bryant, Avery, Walker – but they are all very close in this ranking. The space that seperates 1-5 isn’t all that much. Galloway is old and has been injured a lot, plus there’s a chance he doesn’t even start when he gets back (which I think is crazy) – still, he’s shown his upside, and he’s one fast receiver even as old as he is. Morgan is very young and has just one decent game in his career, but I like him. Bryant was certainly a nice PPR option a few times, he was a top pick, but also a guy that’s warn out his welcome numerous times – but he has been the most productive this season. Then you have Walker – shooit, all the talent in the world but he’s been a head case has a tough team to play receiver for, and he faces Baltimore this week. Avery is lightning and has been getting open a few times a game, and Dallas hasn’t shown anything. Maybe I’d drop Galloway down, but it’s hard because he’s so proven. Tough call man – good luck in your choice.

Red Red Ryan writes, “Okay, I’ve paid my homage to the powers that be. I found an old set of Ninja Turtles and have them all looking up to a Mike Shannahan coaching football card. Warren Moon got a fan-mail from me recently, responded with a “thank you, this and that, this and that” and as for Shannon Sharp, I stopped by a farm recently and fed some horses grass. That should do it eh? That being said, who should I start this week? Brandon Jacobs or DeAngelo Williams? Oh, wait, Addai’s out, I’ll start them both… Ouch. Okay, who would you start at QB? Big Ben or Jake Delhomey? Thanks for the advice, I’ll need the good ju-ju this week.

Red Red Ryan – you probably still need to dye your hair, but you’ve done well young student. I’m going to keep this short, because I don’t think I can compete with your actual question/statement. You are quite the fantasy enthusiast, and while Big Ben will have to throw against the Giants, so will Jake against the Cardinals. I don’t see the Panthers running around well at home this week, but Jake should have nice numbers. With his full compliment of receivers, I like him the best this week. Good luck!

theRUNDOWN: Week 8

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. Atlanta: I think the Eagles will have some trouble with the Falcons, but I like McNabb to throw for many yards and a couple scores.

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Detroit: Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. Clinton’s dominating the league and he gets to pick on the Lions this weekend. I don’t think he’ll get quite as many looks, but two touchdowns in this one is what I’m looking for.

RB: Thomas Jones vs. Kansas City: Jones isn’t the best back in the league, but I have to like him against the Chieftons. The Jets always try to establish the run and it won’t take much trying against KC.

FLEX: Steve Slaton vs. Cincinnati: I love Slaton’s game, but he needs to continue to be involved in the passing game, the kid is filthy in space.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Carolina: People say the Panthers are a tough match-up, well I like the Cardinals to be throwing a lot on Sunday. I like Fitz to catch a few of those and put up some points in Carolina.

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cincinnati: Johnson is a beast. One of the dirtiest most sure thing receivers in the game. Plus, despite the rankings, I like this match-up.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: Bad defense, great player, good quarterback – touchdowns. We’ll see, but the odds look to be in my favor.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. St. Louis: I think the Rams have gotten a little better defensively, and I think that’s good for Gostkowski. A couple more 3rd down stops means a couple more field goals.

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland: All the Raiders can do consistently is run. The Ravens dominate opposing rushing attacks. Duh on this one.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrad: DG plays at home against Cleveland. The numbers don’t look great, Cleveland is solid against the pass and Garrard has been less than mediocre so far this season – still, I like his chances this week. Call it a hunch. Ha.

Jason Campbell: Great match-up this week for Campbell. If handing it to Clinton wasn’t so easy, he’d get even more fantasy points. Still, he’s been good enough for a start here.

LenDale White: I don’t think Bob Sanders is playing in which case the Titans will be getting plenty of rushing opportunities. Chris Johnson is the better back, no doubt in my mind, but LenDale is still a nice start this week against the Colts.

Jamal Lewis: Yep, I like this horse. Jamal runs hard, and his numbers don’t show how well he’s been carrying the rock this year. I like him against the Jags.

Vincent Jackson: “Play him while he’s hot.” I had him here last week, and even though the game is in England, which means lots of traveling and probably less scoring, I don’t think Chambers is playing which makes Jackson the #1. That’s a good thing against the Aint’s secondary.

Josh Morgan: I’m not sure who’s playing QB for San Francisco, I’m not sure who’s the #1 receiver for the 49ers, but I do know that Mike Martz loves Morgan, and that should be enough for a bye week sleeper fill in this week.

Billy Miller: If you need a TE then you can take a shot with Billy. He gets looks. Drew seems to like him, and there’s a chance Shockey either doesn’t play or is limited. Sounds like a play to me, and to throw a nice hanging slider in there – the Chargers secondary leaves something to be desired.

New York Jets: You bet, Chiefs are on the road, defense is in my sleeper slot – it’s that easy.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Matt Cassel: I know he had a nice game last week, but the Rams are bringing many pressures since Little came back – I think Matt gets sacked a lot and becomes turnover prone.

Mewelde Moore: I know Moore was the hot pick up this week, and last, but I don’t see why. He won’t do much this week, I’m almost sure of that, and Parker will be back soon.

Dominic Rhodes: He did well last week, looking good filling in for Joseph Addai. This week he gets to play the Titans… Haha, “gets”, lucky guy. Don’t start him this week unless you are really desperate.

Roddy White: I think Atlanta does some good things through the air, but not via Roddy. He’ll have trouble matching up with some tough corners in Philly.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7

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A couple interesting ones questioning many things from fantasy gods to the ghost of Barry Sanders…  A Halloween special two weeks early? You could say that maybe.

Red Red Ryan from Walla Walla texts me this, “Papa Weimer, I’m in trouble. I think I might have done something to disappoint the fantasy Gods, or whomever it is that decides the balance of such things. You see, last week I lost in both of my fantasy leagues – but here’s the real trick, they were both ties and I dropped the soap with my overtime players in both situations. Two ties, two losses, same week – that is black magic if I’ve ever seen it. Is there anything you suggest that I should do? I’m really looking for some help here. Thanks in advance…”

Red Red Ryan, I think I got what you need. From the photo I’ve seen of you I noticed that you do indeed have red hair. Like America’s fortune 100 (in which not a single one is married to or dating a red head), Fantasy Gods seem to have a thing against red hair. Look at Carson Palmer for example – his hair has become more and more red over the years, and he’s still stuck in Cincinnati with a guy that changed his name to a false spanish number, on a losing team, and now he’s having shoulder and confidence issues – and he was probably the best red head ever, at anything, in the whole world. I say die your hair black or brown or even lime green – all three could be good looks for you. Die your hair guy is usually a joke to me, but i this case I’ll make an exception. Two ties with overtime losses, that does sound pretty amazing, and you also tell me that you never win playoff games in fantasy, that’s surely another fantasy god curse.  Here’s the deal with fantasy gods though, they aren’t really gods, they are a three man group including Mike “Splinter” Shannahan, Shannon “Horse Face” Sharpe, and Warren “Many” Moon(s). If there’s anyway you can please one of those unholy beasts then you can indeed get the fantasy fortune back on your side. My suggestion, don’t say things like “Why can’t you just give the ball to Tatum Bell, he has a great Yards Per Carry average!??!!” or “Shut your big dumb mouth Shannon, you played with freaking John Elway for God’s sake, you should be the all time touchdown leader you loud ass,” and definitely not, “Warren, thanks for your run and shoot input, but you are one bad female encounter away from a new version of your offense, the Shoot and Run.” None of these things will make them happy, and losing on ties will forever be your calling card. If that’s too much for you to handle, here’s the short version… Die hair, slap an old school #1 Huskies uni on, and watch the Ninja Turtles first movie – onward march young red bag….

Digs from Detroit says, “Okay, listen here – I know there’s that curse of the bambino and the Cubs curse, but I’m here in Detroit telling you that we have a curse of Barry Sanders – it’s killing me. I thought Matt Millen was the problem, but it may be more than that. I might trade Michael Turner for Barry Sanders and just see what happens, maybe the curse will be lifted? Let me know, and I’ll pull the trigger. We haven’t had a good runner since then, and our team sucks balls – give me a glimmer of hope old man.”

Ah, the curse of Bewwy – yes indeed. I wouldn’t trade anyone to get him, but for fantasy luck I like to take Sanders with my last pick in any league that allows more than 16 roster spots – he seems to sprinkle good ju-ju on my running back selections, and even thought the chances of him being fantasy relevant are just a slight bit higher than Adam “Frogger” Jones staying out of trouble, the good he does as a mentor has been priceless. I always have good running back luck. Say this year for example, after Round 5 I got Matt Forte. Then in Rounds 10 and 15 I got Chris Johnson and then Steve Slaton. Add that to my 3rd overall pick of Marion Barber and my 3rd round pick of Michael Turner and you’ll see why I’m dominating my 3 RB PPR league. But that’s just fantasy wise, and it looks like you are trying to stop something bigger, something more in the reality scheme than the fantasy realm. Hmmm… I’ve got it. Go back in time and get the Lions to not make so many draft mistakes. I’m not throwing Gosder Cherilus under Matt Millen’s bus quite yet, give him time first, but lets go back here… 2007 – Calvin Johnson is very good, no doubt, but Joe Thomas is one of the best Tackles in the league – ask any football knowledgeable guy and he’ll tell you the difference between an elite receiver and an elite tackle. 2006 – Ernie Sims is good (a little small and prone to nicks), but Jay Cutler is a stud that could have been had. That would have meant the Lions taking a guy that wasn’t a college all world player though, which is rare for them in Round 1. 2005 – Mike Williams over (well anybody) but great players that soon followed… DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown – each was taken in order directly after the Lions ignored all the good scouts directions. Stupid. 2004 – Roy Williams is a quality receiver with big time big play potential, but once again the Lions are putting a lot of their money into receiver – look at that historically, not a great move. Who could they have had? Oh, I don’t know, Ben Roethlisberger, Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Vince Wilfork, Steven Jackson, Bob Sanders – but Ben and Tommie and Shawn and Vince would be 4 great options to have drafted. I can play this game all day, but any team that blows high picks on mediocre players will become terrible. In ’03 it was Charles Rogers over Andre Johnson, Terrence Newman, Jordan Gross, Terrell Suggs, Marcus Trufant, Troy Polamalu – the list goes on and one. Some teams make mistakes, no doubt, it’s just that Detroit does it every year. They error on the side of fantasy numbers. You can’t do that in real football. Millen’s gone, there’s my glimmer – also, there’s lots of mistakes to see where to go next. If they can learn from them, your Lions will be alright. For now, keep Mike Turner my man – he’s hope for your chances.

theRUNDOWN: Week 6

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Here’s Week 6’s action…

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: Here’s the deal, teams haven’t been able to run against the Cardinals, so I see no reason that Romo won’t have a huge day. It should be a shootout, this game, or at least one that prompts a few pass attempts from the Dallas boys. I like Tony’s chances of 3-4 touchdown passes. Brett Favre against the Cardinals? Remember?

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: Matt Forte didn’t kill the Lions defense like I thought he would, but I’ll give them a second shot. Certainly this beast of a man can give Detroit the old one-two punch, uppercut, jab, jab, home run, yhatzee, 200 yards and a couple touchdown dance.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: I like Forte a lot, even in a bad week against the Lions, Forte still scored twice and put in work during a Bears route. I’m willing to bet he comes out and plays well against the Falcons.

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: I’ve always liked Ronnie, and while Houston hasn’t put up terrible rushing defense numbers, I just get the feeling that Miami is giving Ronnie 25-30 chances to make point scoring plays. The ball in his hands means good things, and against Houston he’s bound to break a couple.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: The Hawks are lost, no doubt in my mind. Greg Jennings gets the ball a lot, and he is a beast when running after the catch. The Hawks are pretty trustworthy in that they allow big plays, you can trust them to do so. Lots of reasons to like Greg here.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: See Tony Romo, above.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: See Tony Romo, above.

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: The Broncos defense allows lots of offense. They are coming off a week where they actually played alright, so that’s unlikely to carry over to this week’s game. This one is in Denver, so long kicks are even more likely. This one has to be a good one, despite my kicking hex.

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: The Giants are legit. I thought they’d struggle, I was wrong. Their defense gets the J.O.B done. I like them against and underwhelming Browns team.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: The Rams will pay all their attention to Portis, and respectably so. Unfortunately, that just means campbell will have to torture them. I think Jason is a nice play this week, he’ll finish in the Top 12.

David Garrard: Garrard hasn’t been the same accurate, problem free signal caller he was last year. But he’ll get back into the swing of things. He gets to throw it around on Denver’s secondary, so like I said, brighter days are soon to come.

Gus Frerotte: Still a nice option. 2nd week in a row.

Fred Taylor: I bet Fred scores his first touchdown and gets over 100 yards. He’s been a bad option thus far, sans one solid week, but Fred won’t be scoreless after Sunday’s tilt with Denver.

Willis McGahee: I like Willis’s chances to get his highest total of carries on the season, and while getting all those looks he’ll do his best work of the season as well. So far he’s been a terrible option, but he’ll pull it together against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Lance Moore: Against Oakland Moore might find more room to roam. Whew, tough one. No, but honestly, despite some alliteration excitement, Lance looks like a pretty solid play against the Raiders.

Steve Breaston: Boldin might be back, but Breaston has done enough to gain Warner’s confidence, and the former grocery bagger (Warner) has shown an affinity for getting the ball to 3rd wide receivers, so either way, he’ll be a decent option as a sleeper this week again.

Devin Hester: Hester has found the end-zone a couple times, and I still think he reaches the 10 or more scores I expect him to tally. Atlanta’s a good place to find one or two of those. As a waiver wire guy, you could have a nice bye week option here.

Greg Olsen: This young TE is a nice sleeper with Kyle Orton getting his wings recently – against Atlanta’s secondary he could be a nice waiver wire pick up with nice future upside.

Washington Redskins: Why? Because until the Rams prove they aren’t the worst team I’ve ever seen, it’s sleeper defense every week time.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: Martz always has his quarterbacks throwing lots of touchdowns and turning the ball over just about as often. Against Philly it will be more turnover than TD, and that’s why I wouldn’t follow O’Sullivan to the well this week.

Edgerrin James: James had a touchdown last week against Buffalo, and has solid numbers on the season, but he won’t be doing much in terms of fantasy production against the Cowboys. Sit him.

Jamal Lewis: Back off his bye, I still don’t like Lewis as a start this week. Until New York allows some offensive action, I’m staying away from middle of the road fantasy runners against them. Just like Julius Jones last week, Jamal isn’t the best option in Week 6.

Steve Smith: I would start Steve Smith almost every single week, because you never know when he’s going to break one and take it 80 yards. However, this seems like a down week for Steve, and if you have the balls, and a decent back-up, I’d leave Steve on the bench.

My Prediction Early Returns

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Okay, since my nephew blasted a few of my predictions, I just wanted to get some things straight. There’s still a long season ahead of us here, but after 4 measily weeks I think I have some good things going – I’ve rated all 50 predictions on a 1 to 10 scale, 1 being no chance of my prediction coming true, and 10 being a very good chance that it’s going to happen. Here goes nothing. I’ll do the first half of my prediction rundown this week, and the other half next week (if I’m not too old to remember).

  • Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.(1 It’s not looking good)
  • LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (4 LenDale is down 55-44 as of Week 4, and this Johnson kid looks good, but there’s still injuries and vultured touchdowns to come, I have a chance in non-ppr leagues)
  • Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value. (9 Four games and hasn’t exceeded 20 carries yet, getting just 10, 15, and 12 in week’s 1-3)
  • Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points). (8 Branch comes back this week and he’s chasing Nate Burleson’s Week 1 total of 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown – I think he’s got a great chance to make me look smart)
  • LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it). (I still like this one, but can’t really rate it yet)
  • Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens. (3 Has 100 less rushing yards than the guy who started the season #3 on the depth chart, it’s not looking good, but this could turn around in a hurry)
  • Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  • My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that. (10 Calvin is 5th right now even though he’s only played 3 games because of the teams’ Week 4 bye – I like my chances)
  • Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20. (7 I still think Ryan is the guy, but Flacco is better than I thought, he’ll be in the Top 25)
  • Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games. (4 He’s in the Top 20, yeah, but he has just 2 touchdowns thus far – the dual prediction is looking less likely than I’d hoped)
  • Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York. (8 Even after Coles crabbed 8 balls for 105 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4, Cotchery is still just 3 points back – I still think Jericho ends the season with 40 more fantasy points than Coles)
  • Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (1 – nope – Splinter doesn’t give him the rock at all – too bad, sorry about this one)
  • Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard. (1 – nope, Kurt’s still in, and despite 6 turnovers last week, still the guy giving the Cards the best chance to win)
  • DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career. (4 Jon Stewart has 45 carries for 197 yards thus far, DeAngelo has 55 carries for 201 yards – looks like a 50-50, and Williams is only on pace for 800 yards this season, it could still happen though, all is not lost)
  • Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (9 Keller is 11th thus far and he has just 12 targets thus far – he’s a shoe in)
  • So will Greg Olsen. (7 he’s 27th, but just a touchdown and 30 yards back of a Top 10)
  • Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (1 out for the year after one nice week)
  • Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions. (10 who else told you this? Slaton is 16th overall, the sure fire #1 in Houston, and he has 15 receptions in 16 targets in three games – that’s on pace for 80 receptions and he’s becoming more involved in the passing game. Yhatzee!)
  • Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land. (9 he’s #3 so far, and he only got 7 carries last week, I still think he’s #1, but I need to give some other guys a little credit – we’ll see – Turner’s had some good games too)
  • Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy. (7 who knows, I hope I’m wrong, but Westy is already down a game, and he might miss #2 this weekend, we’ll see)
  • Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (3 Fumble problems and an extremely tough run game schedule has me really worried about this pick – he needs to hold onto the ball long enough to get into the easier part of his schedule and then maybe I’ll get close)
  • Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back. (10 He’s #2 thus far, even in non-ppr leagues – got this one wrapped if he stays relatively healthy – knock, knock)
  • Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year. (10,6,1 – kind of three predictions here, it looks like its safe to expect he won’t get 15 touchdowns, I still think he’ll be a good receiving option in the Top 10, but I don’t think that, without Brady, he catches more balls this season)
  • Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009. (8 I like my chances, 0-4 thus far, Palmer on the mend, not a good game for Chad in the books yet)
  • The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year. (6 1-2, behind San Francisco and Arizona, but just one game back and getting healthier – I still like the Cardinals to take this division)
  • Neither do the freaking Niners. (6 2-2 thus far, but I like the Cardinals better)
  • Alright, there’s half of the predictions, some good – some bad – such is the way it goes. I’ll run the rest next week. Good luck in your Week 5 ventures!

    • Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5

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    I’ve got a couple dandy questions this week, I won’t mix words here – just go right to the nitty gritty – I love being old sometimes – because I can say stuff like “I love being old sometimes” and go absolutely no where with it, link it to nothing, and just go one with what ever it is that I’m doing. And you know what, you’ll be like, “What?” and then you’ll just concede that I’m old and that’s that. Also, being old allows me to say things like “I won’t mix words,” and then put a damn lexicon in a blender. Domino!

    Steven Talking from Tulane says, “This is the first time I’ve ever written in, as you will probably recognize. I was just wondering, I’m in a PPR league and can start a receiver or a running back at the flex this week – who would you start amongst the following? Bernard Berrian, Steve Smith (NYG), Steve Slaton, or Clinton Portis?

    Boy, nice team of Flexers. I think Steve Smith is a great sleeper play this week, but you have 3 other non-sleeper guys, so cross him off the list. Portis is the best player, no doubt, but he has a very tough match-up in Philly this week, and I don’t think he does great things against another great defense for the 2nd straight week. THat leaves Berrian and Slaton, and though Berrian has the makings of a good game against the Saints secondary, I think Slaton is your best bet. Indy doesn’t stop the run without Bob Sanders, and the Iowa missile is out for sure. Slaton catches a lot of balls out of the backfield and his speed should give Indy trouble. He’s in line for 20-25 rushes and targets combined, which should be two to three times as many as Berrien. Good luck this week – Slaton is your guy. And by the way, Steven Talking – that’s great stuff on the name, unless freakishly your name is actually Steven Talking, then just give your mom a high five and your dad a fake high five and then a quick flick to the testicular region. You can’t hit girls and dad’s the next best option.

    Talifan asks, “I dont see much rong with starting Regge Bush this week agginst the Vikes even thou Sota has a good run D – am I stupid?”

    Yes. But you’re right about Reggie Bush. Joking. I’ll just assume you were getting special treatment under the desk while writing in your question – to keep in clean I mean a *pedicure. Reggie has a tough match-up running the ball, sure, but I’d be surprised if he was used as anything except a change of pace anyway. Deuce will get the tough runs and Reggie will get about 10-12 receiving targets. He could do a lot with those looks against the Vikings secondary. Even as a change of pace back, Reggie could break one and end up with a chunk of rushing yards. Bush struggled last week, but he still looks ready for a solid season. Your name is also pretty clever – what they hell is this, smart nickname week on LuckyLester.com? Brilliant. Maybe i can have a cool nickname too –  Papa Ten-Inge Weimer? You know, because I have 10 cousins that are related to Brandon Inge… Yacko!

    David says, “I need a pick up for the future and I can have either Deuce or Le’Ron McClain – you have any advice on this one?”

    Tough call. I’ll tell you this, I’ve seen all backs in Baltimore run and the best pro runningback this year is Le’Ron McClain. That being said who knows what the coaches will think and right now Deuce is looking like the guy to get the rock in New Orleans – maybe check out who they play on that bye week of yours and go from there. If Baltimore has to play Tennessee or Minnesota, haha, then go for Deuce. That’s what I’m thinking. If it were me, and I was just picking up either player based on his rest of the season fantasy total, I would probably go with the sure thing of McAllister. Deuce may be older, and he might have three bad knees, but he’s still the best running back in New Orleans, and there’s a lot about the match-ups that an NFC South running back goes up against opposed to an AFC North running back. Plus, Willis McGahee still looks like “the guy” when he’s healthy. Boy McClain runs hard though, tough decision for sure, and either choice could come back to bite you in the butt – at least you are just picking up a bye week future guy though, not much to lose either way.

    theRUNDOWN: Week 4

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    Okay, after a pretty mediocre Week 3, I’ve got out the big guns and am ready to use them for a huge week. This is where I keep the good stuff… Week 4’s runDOWN son!

    QB: Aaron Rodgers vs. Bucs: I don’t think the Bucs secondary can keep up with Jennings, Jones, and Driver – maybe even Lee and Nelson get into the mix. Anyway, Brees threw all over the Bucs. So did Kyle Orton. I like my chances with Rodgers to do the same.

    RB: Frank Gore vs. New Orleans: The yards per carry against the Saints defense is ridiculous. I know their secondary isn’t good either, but controlling the ball should be a point of emphasis for the Niners vs. the Rams in Week 4 – Gore is the man for that job.

    RB: Marshawn Lynch vs. Car Ram-Rod: The Rams are brutal. Lynch and the Bills will out physical this pathetically weak Ram team. I like Lynch to rush for about 120 yards and score twice.

    WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Chiefs: Because if there’s ever a team that can’t d-up Brandon Marshall, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs. The kid is a beast, and he will dominate the Chiefs.

    WR: Steve Smith vs. Atlanta: It was premature to pick Steve as a top guy in his first week back – well, he should kill the Falcons secondary on way to a big home win this weekend.

    TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: Gonzo should find lots of room against Denver – the Broncos have a weak secondary with their biggest problem area being safety, the same safeties guarding Gonzo on Sunday.

    K: Rian Lindell vs. Ram-Rod: I’m sure I’ll look bad again here, but how can you not like the Bills kicker against this defense? (I know why, because I picked him to have a big day, that’s the best anti-pick you could have).

    D: Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: Pittsburgh should shut down the Ravens offense in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are dominant at home, and the Ravens won’t be able to run the ball. Pass? Interceptions. Thanks for playing.

    PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

    Kerry Collins: This is a big sleeper, but Collins will have to throw a lot, some dump downs to Chris Johnson, and some deep balls to keep the Vikings honest. He could very well go for 200+ yards and throw 2 touchdowns. He could be a great fill in for Week 4 if you happen to have the Manning brothers dancing around on your team as 1 and 2.

    Trent Edwards: You bet! Trent should have a brilliant day against the worst team in football.

    Carson Palmer: He’ll have another startable week against the Browns. After one decent week, I’m willing to bet the Bengals offense is back for good.

    Maurice Jones Drew: After two bad weeks, JD was a sleeper pick last week. I think you should start him again.

    DeAngelo Williams: I like D-Lo’s chances against the Falcons this week. I think he’ll get more carries to start with and make the most of them.

    Selvin Young: I think Young gets his highest number of carries so far this season. He’ll also have his highest yardage total and most fantasy points of the year.

    Bernard Berrian: A tough match-up? You bet, but Berrian will be the only offensive hope the Vikings have against the TItans. Those Titans don’t allow rushing yards – not many passing yards either, but that seems to be the only way to get them.

    Jerry Porter: Porter should be back to full health, and the Jaguars seem to need him. He could be a nice start in his first game action with the Jags, especially against the Texans secondary.

    Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson: After a down week for both guys, they have decent match-ups. The Eagles will have to throw against the Bears, and Jackson can get lost in that secondary. The Broncos should be able to do whatever they want against the Chiefs, and Royal should benefit.

    Owen Daniels: Daniels should find open spaces in Jacksonville’s secondary, and Matt Schaub will be looking to get his sure hands tight end the ball more.

    Buffalo: I like Denver in Week 4, a bad secondary, yes, but they’ll be taking some chances against the Chiefs, and those quick corners can jump some routes.

    Papa’S Week 4 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

    LenDale White: He’ll get less carries than Chris Johnson this week – and the Vikings won’t be giving away yards like they’re free.

    Ryan Grant: I really like Grant, and I’m sure he’ll be fine – but that will just have to wait until next week when they aren’t playing the Bucs.

    Clinton Portis: Portis could be in for a rough one against the Cowboys. Dallas has a fine history of shutting down opposing backs. You probably don’t have a better option, but if you do, you might consider the switch.

    Brandon Lloyd: The Eagles secondary is for real. Lloyd was a nice player last week, but don’t buy the hype, not this week anyway.

    theRUNDOWN Review: Week 3

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    There’s not much to be said about this group, not all that impressive, and not extremely disappointing either – which is too bad, because either or is at least interesting to reminisce about. As is, this is how this group did this week. LT’s 23 on Monday Night Football gave me a nice boost to get over the century mark and roll to 108 on the week – still, next week will be better!

    QB: Tony Romo vs. Packers: I got 16 points from Tony because of his long touchdown pass to Miles Austin – still despite the rolling gut feeling that he was “going off”, I would have been better off taking one of the quarterbacks from the Saints/Broncos game. Dang me!

    RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. New York Jets: Tomlinson didn’t have a great day, I have to be honest, he carried the ball a bunch of times and managed just 2.7 yards per carry or something gross like that. Still, the Chargers handled the Jets and Tomlinson punched two in from close range. You can’t argue with his 23 fantasy points I guess, but 2.7 per against the Jets? He’ll turn things around, right?

    RB: Michael Turner vs. KC: Big Mike in the Wood had a HUGE day, touchdown wise anyway. He didn’t pile up the 200+ yards like he did in Week 1, but Turner did put 3 touchdowns on the Chiefs – I had to love that. He posted 28 points for me.

    WR: Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: 3 catches for 45 yards, 7 fantasy points in a ppr league – thanks Plax. I ditched Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitz so I could put you on my squad – last time I do that!

    WR: Steve Smith vs. Minnesota: 4 grabs for 70 yards, but the Panthers needed to get Smith the ball more. Still, it was a risky selection and it back fired a little. 11 points for a WR in a PPR league isn’t much to get excited about.

    TE: Jeremy Shockey vs. Denver: Shockey had 8 receptions for 75 yards, not a bad day for the big guy. Anytime a tight end can get my 15 fantasy points I have to appreciate their efforts.

    K: Josh Brown vs. Seattle: 8 fantasy points form Mr. Brown and he got booed like he was Johnny Damon leaving for the Yankees- I love that. Still, 8 points is probably an all time high for kickers in this deal for me.

    D: Patriots vs. Miami: I don’t know how much they scored. I’m not checking. They got handled. I’ll take a zero and be happy about it.

    PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

    David Garrard: Garrard threw another interception without tossing or rushing for a touchdown. He had just 167 yards, which gives him, what, 4 fantasy points? Oops! F

    Aaron Rodgers: For how out of sync the Packers looked against Dallas, Rodgers put up some solid numbers. His late touchdown run was a nice helper, and he did throw for just under 300 yards in this one. I think Aaron’s 19 fantasy points were nice. I’ll take an A- just because he didn’t toss a touchdown.

    JT O’Sullivan: JT put up 189 yards and two touchdown passes without an interception. He didn’t tear up the yardage totals, but he put in some nice work going for 19 fantasy points of his own – I bet that gets him into the top 10. A

    Maurice Jones Drew: “Best runner in Jacksonville hits gold against a Bon Sanders-less Colts team.” Yep! MJD went for 100+ rushing, 50+ receiving, and scored a big touchdown on way to a Jaguars win. Gotta love the short guy (little is a lie, he’s freaking solid). 25 points grades out as an A+

    Julius Jones: The Hawks rushed for 245 yards against the worst defense in football, St. Louis, and Julius took 22 rushes for 140 yards and a touchdown. He also caught a pass, giving him 21 fantasy points on the day. A+

    Sammy Morris: Down 21-6 at half time the Patriots weren’t in the running mode. Yeah, I didn’t see this coming – obviously. Morris had 3 points giving me an F for this sleeper pick.

    Chad Ocho Cinco: Carson Palmer had a really nice day, but it was TJ, not Chad, that was getting it done for the Bengals. Ocho Cinco had Cinco fantasy points. F

    Anthony Gonzalez: 2 catches for 37 yards, Peyton went to Marvin more, and Dallas Clark came back this week and stole some looks from Anthony – still, Gonzo grabbed 2 balls for 37 yards in the Colts loss. D for this one.

    Derrick Mason: 4 grabs for 42 yards – apparently I was wrong about the Ravens being behind in this one and having to throw to catch up. Mason had 8 fantasy points – that’s a C- maybe.

    Todd Heap: 2 catches for 32 yards – I’m beginning to want to drop Mr. Heap. 5 fantays points, maybe a D+

    Buffalo: Not a great showing from the Bills – they did enough to get my 8 fantasy points in my game, but they didn’t do what I needed them to do this week, that’s for sure. C-

    Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

    Jamal Lewis: 12 rushes for 56 yards, not bad. 3 catches for 27 yards, not bad. No scores was a bummer, but Jamal didn’t have as bad a game as I thought he’d have. 10 fantasy points for a guy that you should trade for if you can. Boy, does Brady Quinn start next week though?

    DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart: Williams had 10 carries for 27 yards (also 2 catches for 17 yards) and Stewart had 7 carries for 15 yards – but he did have a touchdown. Still, if you started either back hoping for a decent fantasy game, you were tricked. Sitting these guys was a good call.

    Chris Perry: You know what, against a very good rush defense Chris had a fine day. 20 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. I was wrong about his outing, he was a solid start with 16 fantasy points (2 catches for 19 yards as well).

    Hines Ward: Hines had his first touchdownless week this season, and he grabbed just 4 passes for 34 yards. Nothing exciting about that.