Tag Archives: NCAA Week 14 Picks

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction: This game has me really nervous after the week’s numbers, and the way the lines have shifted. I got this game on Tuesday back at GT -2.5, and that’s what I have to stick with, but almost every book has this game at even, and the ones that don’t have the Jackets favored by only a point, and there’s even one book that has Clemson favored in the ACC Title game. 64% of the bets are coming in on the Jackets, but the line has moved in the Tigers favor, hmmm…. That’s always tough on a guy like me, I try to think of it all.

Now I can see what there is to like about Clemson. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, the underdog in this match-up is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are coming off a game where their run game got shut down pretty well by a mediocre Georgia defense. Who has a very good defense? The Tigers, that’s who, up front they are very talented and I can imagine the books see a possible problem for the Jackets there. All they have is a run game, if that’s stopped, they have nothing.

But, Clemson gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week as well, and I can’t see the Yellow Jackets struggling two weeks in a row on the ground. While the match-up is a good one, a great run game against a great defensive line, I think the Yellow Jackets are just flat out the better team. That gives them the nod in my book.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers:

Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick

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Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick: The Wildcats are a tough team to figure. They can play great football against the best of the best, and they can go out and lose to the Huskies or the Cal Bears. But Arizona has been more impressive than USC in just about every single key football category you could think of. Yards gained, yards allowed, points per game, time of possession, penalties, win differential against winning teams – you name it, the Cats have been the better team all year long.

But USC has 60% of the public bets, and every “expert” list I’ve seen has the Trojans as a great bet going into the weekend. I don’t buy it. The Trojans have a lot of stud athletes, sure, but Arizona can run the ball against the Trojans, and Nick Foles has shown he can throw it. This Arizona team outplayed the Ducks a couple weeks ago when they lost in overtime – I think they are the better team, they are getting more than a touchdown against the Trojans, and there’s not much else to say about it.

The Trojans have been out-rushed in 3 of their last 4 games, and took losses in two of those games. The Wildcats have lost just one game when out-rushing their opponent. And when the Wildcats do lose, they haven’t lost by much. Their biggest loss this season? Try a 10-point loss on the road at Iowa.

Arizona Wildcats (+7.5) @ USC Trojans

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two straight to the Florida Gators, but that’s where the gambling numbers stop favoring Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS against the Gators in the last 8 games. Alabama has won 3 of their last 5 over Florida, and in all 3 of those games they were underdogs. This is the smallest spread either team have dealt with all year long. Neither has been an underdog yet this year. Alabama was actually up late in the Florida Game last year, but the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to walk away with the SEC Title.

But this is a different year and these are different teams. The Gators don’t have Percy Harvin anymore, and the Crimson Tide don’t have their senior quarterback anymore. Both teams have been great all year, and this should be a very tough-nosed game. But in the end I just think the Gators are too explosive.

I think Mark Ingram is a very good runner, but the Gators have been so dominant defensively this year, I just don’t see the Tide making much of their offensive snaps. Florida has yet to give up more than 20 points, and allow less than 10 on average. Alabama is just a point behind them, giving up only 11 per game. Both of these teams are good, I just think the Gators are better, and that’s what it comes right down to. Alabama is the slight public favorite, 52% like them.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide

California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

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California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick: Coming into the season, the Cal Bears boasted one of the best running backs in the nation, if not the best. But Jahvid Best had a scary injury, and hasn’t played in quite some times. The interesting part of that scenario is that the Bears rushing attack hasn’t really suffered. In fact, I think the offensive line is blocking better, and overall, the Bears are a more efficient offense now that they aren’t relying on their stud running back.

That spells trouble for the Huskies. I’ve been pretty much dead on with the Huskies this year, I know them well. I know who they should play well against, I know who they struggle against. I’ve said all along that if you can fully commit to running the ball against UW then you can win easily. I think the Golden Bears can and will do that.

Not only are they the better team, and pose a tough match-up for the Huskies defense, but the Bears are playing their best football of the season. After struggling mightily against good teams, the Bears have beaten Arizona and Stanford back to back. And they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the University of Washington. I know Husky stadium is loud but I don’t know how long it will be that way.

If you look at stats, you’ll see that the Bears do just about everything more effectively than the Huskies. Stats, the way I feel, the moon alignment – I have everything going for me here. I think the Bears win 38-21 in Seattle.

California Golden Bears (-6) @ Washington Huskies

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick

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Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick: I don’t see what about the Cornhuskers has them at a two touchdown underdog in this one. They’ve basically had one bad game all year long, and aside from that one piss poor outing, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech in which they turned the ball over more than Jay Cutler, they’ve lost two games by a total of three points, a 2 point loss to Iowa State and a 1 point loss to Virginia Tech. That’s not really two touchdown underdog worthy is it?

Against like opponents, the Cornhuskers have held their own. They beat Kansas by two touchdowns while the Longhorns beat the Jayhawks by three touchdowns. The Huskers beat Oklahoma 10-3, the Longhorns won their tilt with the Sooners 16-13. Both won against the spread and straight up against Missouri.

They Cornhuskers have out-rushed all but two of their opponents on the season, the same can be said for the Longhorns. The Cornhuskers have a superior defense, allowing just 11 points on average this season. The Lonhorns have the superior offense, blasting weaker teams late in the year, and finishing the year averaging 43 points per contest compared to the Cornhuskers 25.6.

But Nebraska plays their toughest football against the best teams. They beat Oklahoma, fought Virginia Tech until the very end, and beat up on Kansas. The last two games in this match-up the Longhorns have won by 2 and 3 points. Nebraska won ATS in both games. Texas has more injury concerns headed into Saturday’s Championship game, and that last little push makes the Cornhuskers a great bet in my cocky opinion.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)