Tag Archives: Free NCAA Picks

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Boston College Eagles Pick

Posted on by

no banners

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Boston College Eagles (-3.5) Pick: The Eagles are an unranked favorite against the 25th ranked Tar Heels – that has been a betting point for me over the years, and I like it again this week. But this game is going to be close, let’s face it, but not close enough for me to take the Heels and that valuable extra half point. So, something has to look good to me, but what?

How about the fact that Boston College is 6-0 at home this season. Sure, they haven’t played any world-beaters at their home turf this season, but this is a good home team, a team that makes very few mistakes, a team that is 5-0 ATS at home, with wins over Central Michigan and FSU – two teams that can put up some points. Also pulling me over to the Eagles side is North Carolina’s battered offensive line. 3 offensive linemen got hurt in their last game against Miami, and if a couple of them don’t play, or aren’t 100%, the Tar Heels could struggle to run the ball and keep pressure off of T.J. Yates.

Speaking of Yates, the talented junior and Carolina QB is having a tough season at the helm. He’s thrown just as many interceptions and touchdowns (10) and has averaged just over 5.5 yards per attempt this season – that’s not a good number, in case you didn’t know.

I just think these teams are very even, and the home field is definitely a huge advantage for the Eagles. That’s enough for me.

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

Posted on by

no banners

Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Buffalo Bulls vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks NCAA Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Buffalo Bulls (-1.5) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks NCAA Free Pick: At this point you have to realize that anything can happen in College Football. And that it gets even crazier when you start playing games in the middle of the week at night on National Television. Neither of these teams are headed to a Bowl Game. Neither is winning anything in their conference, both have had disappointing seasons. But this one shouldn’t be difficult.

The Bulls are a much better team. They have lost their last three games by 3 points or less. They have 5 total losses this season by a touchdown or less. They’ve played some tough teams close. Miami-Ohio has one win, one close loss to the Temple Owls, and a bunch of tomato can performances.

This is being played on the road, where Buffalo is 1-3 on the season, but it’s not like Miami has been awesome at home either, they are just 1-3 there. Buffalo has a more efficient passing attack, a much better rushing attack and defensively they have played much better than the Redhawks.

The difference in Buffalo’s average points scored and points against is under 3. The difference in Miami’s average points for and points against is 18. Those numbers don’t always mean a lot, but without an offensive area to gang up on (the Bulls are too diverse) I don’t see Miami stopping Buffalo at all. Buffalo’s bad luck has to turn around, and I think it does against the Redhawks on Wednesday Night.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.

NBA and NCAA Basketball Picks November 17 2009

Posted on by

Here are some of my hoops picks from around the NCAA and NBA tonight. ESPN is currently doing a showing of 24 hours straight college basketball, check it out!

NCAA Hoops

no banners

Temple Owls (+9) @ Georgetown Hoyas (4:00pm ET): Everyone loves the Hoyas this year, and they are a bit older, but they basically return the same starting 5 that disappointed in the entire second half of the season last year, aside from DeJuan Summers (drafted in the 1st Round by Detroit). Big man Greg Monroe is a stud, does lots of things well, but outside of him and Chris Wright I’m not sold on the Hoyas. Temple plays a lot of close games, they’re a tough defensive team, and they have a lot of players back this time around. They lost stud guard Dionte Christmas, but without him they move the ball better, and should get a more well rounded box score. I like them to cover here.

Gonzaga Bulldogs @ Michigan State Spartans (-11) (8:00pm ET): I actually think Gonzaga is getting a little bit too much for their name here. They are solid, and might find themselves an NCAA tournament bid, but this team lost a ton with graduation a year ago. Matt Bouldin is a great college basketball player, he certainly can do it all, and the Bulldogs have some good young kids that will step in and play well as the season progresses. But this Spartans team is dominate, they basically lost a guy from last years’ super deep team that finished runner up for the NCAA Championship. They are great. They should easily win by double digits here.

NBA Hoops

no banners

Oklahoma Thunder @ Miami Heat (-5): When the Thunder start playing better defense, they might get over the hump, but the Heat’s Haslem and O’Neal should dominate in the post tonight, and while Durant is a stud, I’ll take Wade in this one.

L.A. Clippers (+2) @ New Orleans Hornets: If you can point out where the Hornets will be better than the Clippers tonight, I’ll happily change my pick. Point guard? Nope, that Chris Paul fellow is out. Shooting guard? Not if Eric Gordon plays. Up front? As ugly as his gooey face is, I’m pretty sure Chris Kaman is a more capable scorer than 62 million dollar man, Emeka Okafor. Peja Stojakovic used to be good, but right now I’d even take Al Thorton. Al should use Peja when the Clips have the ball. Okay, I’ll give you David West, might score 25 tonight, but Marcus Camby is twice as good defensively. 25 shouldn’t be enough for the Hornets.

Chicago Bulls (+1) @ Sacramento Kings: I know Sac Town has won their last 4, but that just means their due. The Bulls are pretty solid up front, especially rebounding the basketball, and that’s what Sacremento needs as an advantage to win basketball games. Look at who they’ve beaten in their four games, Utah, Golden State, Oklahoma, and Houston – none of those teams have good defensive posts/rebounders. Well, I hate to say it, but Noah can D up opposing posts and will almost always out-rebound them. Taj Gibson has been playing well, and Brad Miller off the bench should have something for his old team. I like Chicago to get the win to open their road trip.

East Carolina Pirates vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick

Posted on by

no banners

East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5) Pick: Call me nuts, but I like the Hurricane to snap their 4 game losing streak and beat the East Carolina Pirates this Sunday Night. After starting the season 4-1, the Hurricane have had a very tough schedule down the stretch, and while they’ve played solid football (for the most part), they just haven’t been able to get over the hump and get a victory. They lost by a touchdown to Boise State, 4 points to UTEP, and single point to Houston last Saturday. They got beat by a couple scores against SMU between the UTEP and Houston game, but like I said, it’s not like they’re getting whooped.

On the bright side, both of these teams lost to SMU. Both of them have lost to basically every good team they’ve played thus far. I just think it’s time for Tulsa to break out and win a game. They have lots of options offensively, they do a lot of things well, and can really put up points. Against an East Carolina team that can really struggle and has been limited through the air of late, I think Tulsa can just out-gun them. I think if East Carolina had Tulsa’s schedule, they’d be lucky to be 4-5.

The better team is the home team, despite records, despite their recent losses, the better team should come out and win this game. I’m taking Tulsa to win, I’m guessing by 10-14 points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick: This game opened at -6.5 but was up to -7.5 on Tuesday morning when I sent out my Just Picks newsletter, obviously I’m stoked on getting that extra point. Losing by a touchdown still gets me a win, and the way Notre Dame has fought back in games this year, that extra half point might just come in handy. I still think Notre Dame is good value at +7 – they have more of an offensive air attack than anything Pittsburgh has seen this year, and that’s coming from a guy that can’t stand Notre Dame.

Pitt Panther starting QB, Bill Stull, has been absolutely great. Jimmy Clausen has been even better. I love to hate the kid and his “big name” style, but Clausen has been awesome this season. He’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, completing 68% of his passes – and you have to admire those 2770 yards through 9 games. Stull might not have as many touchdowns or yards, but he’s been key to the Panthers 8-1 season thus far. He should find plenty of room to make Notre Dame suffer this Saturday.

I think Pitt is the better team, but not by as much as everyone else seems to. Remember, even in losses, the Irish have played close. They’ve lost 0 games by more than a touchdown, and I have to believe there are a couple teams on their schedule that could give Pittsburgh a run. The Panther struggled against UConn and Rutgers a few weeks ago. They lost outright to N.C. State, of all teams, as Russell Wilson destroyed them for 4 passing touchdowns. Jimmy could do that. 7.5 is great value, 7 is solid too – I hope the Irish get embarrassed, but my money’s on a close game.

Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) Free Pick: The Hurricanes are 7-2 on the season, 6-3 ATS, and 3-1 on the road. They are 2-2 ATS away from home. The Tar Heels are 6-3 this year, 4-4 ATS, and 4-2 at home.

The Canes really struggle against teams that can run the ball, and the Heels have been on point with their run game over the last few weeks. They’ve out-rushed their last 4 opponents, FSU, Virginia Tech, and Duke – winning 2 of their last 3 games, and setting up a good ACC match-up with the visiting Hurricanes.

The Tar Heels have won 3 of thier last 4 while the Miami has won 5 of their last 6. The Hurricanes are 3-1 on the road this season. Their two losses came against defenses that stop the run, Clemson and Virginia Tech – that match-up is good for the Heels. I think they can keep this game low scoring, giving them a nice chance to pull the upset at home.

When it comes down to it, I like Carolina’s defense to take advantage of the mistakes Miami has. The Tar Heels have one of the most underrated defenses in the land, allowing just over 15 points per game. The Heels hold a nice edge in time of possession, and I think that goes a long way this Saturday. Getting Miami thinking that they have to do more with less is a successful recipe for getting the W. These two teams are very even, getting 3 points at home is good value.

Free NCAA and NBA Basketball Picks: Friday Night

Posted on by

NCAA Hoops Picks:

Morehead State Eagles (+21) @ Kentucky Wildcats: I know Kentucky got their new coach and a bunch of prized recruits, but this Morehead State team is resilient. They return 4 starters form a year ago, and while they lost a key player in Senior, Leon Buchanan, they have some solid players that have played well against big time competition. Better yet, this team fights, they lost 2 games by more than 20 points last season. The first was just an off night in the 2nd game of the season against Vanderbilt, the 2nd was to Louisville. In the NCAA tournament last season, the Eagles lost by 20 to that same Louisville team. I expect it to take the Wildcats a few games to mesh, and while I fully expect them to win, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is much closer than 20.

no banners

Wright State Raiders @ Washington Huskies (-14): I just think UW’s overall size and athleticism is too much for the Raiders. It might stay close for a while, but with the way UW gambles and runs the floor, a five point lead could turn into twenty in just a few minutes. Wright State does return 4 starters from last year’s team that finished the season much better than they started. UW loses Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman, two key cogs in the Huskies success a year ago, but Dentmon’s services will be replaced by fantastic freshman Abdul Gaddy, and Brockman’s absence will only allow the Huskies to run the floor more against lesser teams. UW is long enough to rebound at all positions. I haven’t even talked about Isiah Thomas yet – the sophomore was awesome in his first season with the Huskies, and I only expect him to be better this time around.

NBA Hoops:

Atlanta Hawks (+9) @ Boston Celtics: The first game in ESPN’s double header seems like a great bet. The Hawks are one of the better teams in the East, they play good defense, and this game has definitely turned into a rivalry after a tough playoff match-up. This game is often a close one, finishing 6 points or closer in 5 of the last 8 contests. The road team has won 8 of the last 10, Atlanta has won 3 of the last 5 in Boston. Both teams are coming off a free day. Should be a good one.

no banners

L.A. Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-3): Gotta like Denver tonight, they haven’t played very well lately, but get the benefit of coming off a long road trip early in the season, and getting to play at home. Whew, what a load off. L.A. didn’t have a real tough game against Phoenix last night, but they still played, and they still are missing their second best player. The Lakers have a chance, of course, they have Mr. Bryant, but I like the Nuggets’ chances. This is the late game on ESPN Friday Night Basketball.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

Posted on by

no banners

West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.