Tag Archives: Free NCAA Picks

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) Pick: I got this game at 7, and I must say that’s a lot sexier than 7.5. but even at the number you’re getting today. 7.5, the Jackets look like a solid bet to me. I see that Georgia makes their home in the famous SEC, the home of Champions and bullies and the greatest college football teams to ever play the game, not to mention the single most complete college football leader in the storied history of the sport, one Tim Tebow – but I still like the Techies’ chances. So, SEC, you’ve got nothing on me!

This Georgia Team got beat by Kentucky last week, at home no less. They got whipped by all the top ranked teams they’ve played, even Tennessee handed them a 45-19 loss. The Yellow Jackets have only had trouble with teams that can really throw the ball or are just flat out good. They lost to Miami when Jacory Harris was lighting the world on fire, they won by just 5 over Florida State as Casey Ponder chewed up their secondary, and Wake Forrest gave them trouble as Riley Skinner found his game. But Georgia doesn’t have that. Sure, they have some high yardage numbers, and Joe Cox has thrown 21 touchdowns, but the Bulldogs are hardly an elite passing team.

Georgia also gets smoked when they get out-rushed. Florida out-rushed them. Tennessee out-rused them, and so did LSU – all teams beat and covered against the Bulldogs. In fact, the only game they won while getting out-rushed was against South Carolina, by 7 yards, and even then the Gamecocks covered the spread.

Yeah, I like one of the best rushing attacks in college football – the Yellow Jackets by a touchdown.

Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Free Football Pick

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Florida State Seminoles (+23) @ Florida Gators Free Football Pick: Listen, I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t hear about Christian Ponder’s absense until much to late, and now it all makes sense. I go through a lot of college football (and pro football) games, among other sports, and every once in a while I’ll miss a big huge thing like Christian Ponder is out for the season, and was out last game as well, a game where back-up QB E.J. Manuel threw 3 interceptions to the Maryland Terrapins. Yeah, tough deal. But that being said, I still think the Seminoles have a chance. I wouldn’t put much on this line, without their leader at Q, times could go south quick for the Seminoles – but the Gators haven’t been the blow-out type this season, and 23 points is a lot.

Florida State has given up a ton of points, no doubt, but without their offense slanging the ball all over the field, I think this thing slows down a little bit (plus Florida likes to control the ball) and a few less points get scored because of it. I also know that the Gators have three wins by 24 points or more this season, Kentucky, Troy, and Florida International – big whoop.

FSU hasn’t had a great year, and even with great numbers for their QB, they’ve just barely gotten over .500 – but they have the athletes to compete with anyone, and even without Ponder, I think they are a decent bet at the +24.5 they are at most books right now.

Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction

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Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction: I don’t know what Vegas sees in this game, and like always, that kind of worries me. I’ve been right before, and I’ve been wrong, but for some reason the times I’ve been wrong always sit with me a little longer. Maybe it’s because when I’m right, I knew I was right, and when I’m wrong, shoot, I knew I was right and somewhere along the line I went and got tricked. I don’t think that’s happening this time, but shoot, I never do. Here’s why I like the Wildcats to do damage to the Sun Devils.

Arizona State has beaten the Wildcats 3 of the last 4 meetings, but listen, the Wildcats just became a solid team last season – they’re still pretty good, and ASU still isn’t. I’m not letting recent history sway me away from the right pick here, and since Arizona’s good team beat the Sun Devils last year, I’m feeling pretty good about it.

What else, Arizona State is ridden with “out for season”, “out indefinitely”, “questionables” and “probables” while the Wildcats only have two recent injuries, and both guys are questionable to play this Saturday – against their rival, I think they will. The Sun Devils have also lost each of their last 5 and their only Pac-10 wins come against the Washington schools – and lets be honest – they hardly count.

Arizona has had a good year, they’ve only lost 4 games and all were close. They can run the ball and play good defense. I don’t think the Sun Devils put up much of a fight.

Washington State Cougars vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

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Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-24) Free Pick: Listen, I have a hard time giving the Huskies 24 points, against almost anyone, but not so much the worst team in college football. Maybe I’m being a little hard on the Cougars from Washington State, I mean, I know a couple kids on the team, and they are good guys, they just can’t compete with the rest of the Pac-10. I think they might have 3 wins if they played in the Western South Pacific Poison Ivy League – but they haven’t proven they can play with anyone in the Pac-10. And I can’t think that this huge rivalry game, the famous Apple Cup, will bring them all the way from doormat to competitive team.

But they give up 39.3 points per game, not because they wouldn’t give up more, but because the game is only so long, and when teams rarely score in the 4th quarter because they are just trying to finish the game, it’s hard to score much more than 40. The Cougars have given up at least 40 points in their last 5 games. I’ve hear of high school teams getting done in like that, but a Pac-10 team? Here’s the thing, the Cougars might be petitioning to get into that WSPPIL that I was talking about earlier, are they really Pac-10-ish? Every other team in the league is competitive – the closest Pac-10 game the Cougars have played was against Arizona State – they lost by just 13 with a late 4th quarter score – amazing game for them.

I know the Cougars have won 4 of their last 5, and are currently on their longest winning streak over the Huskies(2 games), and I know the Huskies have lost each of thier last 4 games, getting blown out in two, but at least they’ve competed all year long. They’ve blown games on the field, they’ve blown games on the sidelines, but they’ve played and hung in against some good teams, and I think they blow out the Cougars – somewhere in the 42-13 range – and that’s enough for a cover. The Dawgs win and they win BIG!

Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos Free Pick

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Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos (-10) Free Pick: The Ball State Cardinals are 1-10 straight up and 5-6 ATS. As a 9.5 or higher underdog they are 4-1 ATS on the season. Ball State has 10 losses, but in 6 of those games they’ve finished within a touchdown of their opponent.

This line probably is probably is a little bit inflated, I have to be honest. I don’t know if you can quite get as similar as 1-10 Ball State, but the Broncos have played a couple poor teams with bad records, and while they’ve come out on top in a few, they’ve won against the spread only twice as favorites this year. One of those wins was against Miami of Ohio, almost if not just as sub-par as Ball State.

Ball State’s strongest part of their offensive attack is their rushing game. That doesn’t seem to bother Western Michigan much. What I mean by that is that Western Michigan usually gets out-rushed, and it’s made no difference in winning or losing games – they’ve won and lost while getting pummeled on the ground. What seemingly hurts the Broncos is when a team can get them through the air. In each of their last two losses, they were out-gained through the air. They lost both ATS as well.

Western Michigan can throw the ball well, they have an extra 4 days to prepare for this game on Tuesday, and that should be enough if being the better team wasn’t enough already. It’s not a gimmie, as Ball State has owned this match-up over the last 5 years (4-1 SU and ATS) but fighting for their 6th win, I think Western Michigan wins by double digits.

North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs Virginia Tech Hokies Pick

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North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-19.5) Pick: The Wolf Pack don’t post much of a problem for the Hokies, at least not based on the type of teams that Va-Tech usually has trouble with. Obviously talent is far superior at Virginia Tech, but that’s not always a recipe for success. The fact that pass-happy, poor-running teams don’t seem to get much done against the Hokies is what means much more to me. Tech has shown, if you can’t run it with success, they’ll put you to rest.

The Wolf Pack don’t run the ball poorly, it’s just not a huge part of their offense, and they just don’t do it against good defenses. They have been out-rushed in  3 of their last 4 games, the Pack that is, and they’ve lost those 3. They’ve only lost 2 games by 20 points or more, against Clemson and Boston College, two defenses that don’t allow you to run with ease.

The Hokies have been out-rushed 4 times this season, they are 3-1 in those games with a 16-15 win over Nebraska in the other. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Alabama (their 3 losses) all had the ability to run the ball with power and efficiency. That’s the link of the Hokies’ three losses. The Hokies have beaten 4 teams by 24 or more. The Hokies are playing their best defense of the season, and offensively they are leaning more and more on the run-game. That’s good for them.They win by 3+ TD’s in this one.

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal NCAA Pick

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California Golden Bears @ Stanford Cardinal (-7) NCAA Pick: This come right down to me thinking Stanford is 2 touchdowns better than Cal on any given day. They pass the ball much better, run it better, are more physical, control the clock like it’s their job, and play a better brand of football with less room for error. Basically, Yahtzee! I feel like the Cardinal as a touchdown favorite is a glorious thing that everyone should get in on – so does 67% of the public, but so what, this one shouldn’t be too close.

Stanford hasn’t been favored in this in-state rivalry since 2001. That’s a long time ago folks, as scary as that sounds. Cal is 5-2-1 ATS over the last 8 meetings with Stanford, they’ve won 6 of the last 7 outright. Just for the sake of letting you know, the under has won in 6 of the last 7 match-ups.

Before last week’s win over Arizona, the Bears had been kicked around by each “good” team they’ve played. That means USC (30-3), Oregon (42-3), and Oregon State (31-14) in a game that wasn’t even that close. Their win over Arizona says something, definitely, they have a little fight in their pads, and that’s good for Bear fans. But this Stanford team is too good for any of that business to matter.

Unlike Arizona, the Cardinal should just bruise and batter the Bear defense just like USC, Oregon State, and Oregon did. 38-20 is my prediction.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Connecticut Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Connecticut Huskies (+6) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: The Huskies luck just has to turn at some point. When you think about the talented teams they’ve had to play over the last handful of weeks, and the way they’ve played close with in every single loss, and then the terrible times they’ve had to go through as a team, one would have to believe some sort of justice is on the way for the Huskies. When would be a better time than against an Irish team that has lost their token luck?

Not only is the timing right, but the Huskies look like the better team to me. I know it’s being played in South Bend, and I know a lot’s on the line for the Irish and their head coach’s job – but so what, the same can be said for the last two weeks, and no wins came from those games.

Who has Notre Dame beat this year? Washington State, Washington (with BS calls to aid them to overtime- the luck of the Irish, if you will), Purdue, Michigan State, and Nevada. They also beat Boston College, easily their best win of the year. The Irish have won 2 games by more than a touchdown. Washington State (quite possibly the worst team in College Football) and Nevada (to open the season).  Thanks for the scheduling, but I’m not impressed.

To be honest, I’m more impressed with UConn’s losses than Notre Dame’s wins. North Carolina by 2. Pittsburgh by 3. West Virginia by 4. Rutgers by 4. Cincinnati by 2, 45-47. The heart break hasn’t stopped for the Huskies since their teammate was murdered. But they are a good team. They fight with the best of them. I like them to continue their stellar play and turn their recent tough-luck around.