Tag Archives: Fantasy Football

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

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Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

The Value of Opportunity

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Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is all about opportunity.  At the highest level the separation between stars and scrubs is often not a measure of talent but rather the chance players are given to put that talent on display.  For every Peyton Manning that was drafted into stardom there is a Tom Brady that toiled in obscurity until they got their shot (thank you, Drew Bledsoe).  As an avid fantasy footballer, part of what I try to do in building winning teams is to assess players not only on what they have done (given their opportunity), but what they could do if given the chance.  Historically sleepers are identified from one season to the next by determining which players’ values will take a spike due to either an increased role, a change of scenery, or an improved surrounding cast.  This logic seems sound in a lot of ways but it also leaves a lot to chance.  If I’m taking a shot on a guy in the mid-to-late rounds of my draft, I want to know that given the opportunity he will put points on the board.  Perhaps the best predictor of what a player is capable of with the ball in their hands is FPT or Fantasy Points per Touch.  Depending on the scoring of your league, you should have an idea which guys do the most with what they are given and then look for individuals in that group who may take advantage of an improved situation in the upcoming season.  The following lists of FPT all-stars compared to their top-tier peers are based on a standard PPR league for the 2009 season.  Call them sleepers if you want, but these are the guys you can trust to make the most of their opportunities when given the chance.

Quarterbacks

Top-Tier Peers:

Philip Rivers – .66 FPT
Drew Brees – .55 FPT
Peyton Manning – .52 FPT
Kurt Warner – .51 FPT
Jay Cutler – .46 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Shaun Hill – .50 FPT – I know he’s not sexy, but Shaun Hill wins football games and I have to think that when the chips are down Mike Singletary would rather have him behind center than an aging vet or an unproven rookie if the Niners go that route in April.  Young wideout Josh Morgan keeps getting better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco go WR early when the draft rolls around or make a play on Torry Holt or Anquan Boldin if and when they come available.  If he wins the gig (and I think he will) and plays a full season, you’ll look like a genius for nabbing Hill with one of the last picks in the draft while others reached for a big name QB early.

Trent Edwards – .40 FPT – The career path of quarterbacks that have played with TO can’t be ignored.  Yes, he’s a pain in the ass … yes, he does topless crunches in his driveway while fielding questions from reporters … yes, he has the emotional maturity of a jock strap … but … Jeff Garcia went to three Pro Bowls throwing him the rock, Donovan McNabb had the best season of his career when TO was flying like an Eagle, and Tony Romo bacame a household name (and landed some hotties) during Owens’ time in big D.  Edwards is already a very accurate passer and has displayed good intangibles with only a couple seasons under his belt.  I anticipate a BIG step forward for the Stanford alum in the upcoming season.

Tarvaris Jackson – .56 FPT – The only thing standing between T-Jack and fantasy production is one Bradford Childress.  There aren’t many men I detest more than the software engineer currently running the show in Minnesota.  When given the opportunity Jackson has made strides toward becoming a viable NFL starting quarterback (see his 95.4 QB rating and 9-2 TD-INT ratio in limited action last season).  For reasons beyond my comprehension the Viking’s brass wants to hand the reigns to the walking turnover that is Sage Rosenfels.  When that fails miserably and the Vikes stumble out of the gates, make sure Jackson isn’t floating out on your league’s free agent list and he will reward you with above average production.

Running Backs

Top-Tier Peers:

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1.02 FPT
Brian Westbrook – .92 FPT
LaDainian Tomlinson – .77 FPT
Michael Turner – .71 FPT
Adrian Peterson – .66 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Pierre Thomas – 1.12 FPT – When Thomas took over the reigns for the injured (again) Reggie Bush and aging Deuce McAllister, the Saints offense didn’t miss a beat.  In fact, the guy that played in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois took full advantage of his opportunity down the stretch last season and carried many fantasy owners to their respective championships.  Thomas proved to be a dynamic all-around threat as he displayed a nose for the goaline as well as above-average receiving skills out of the backfield.  Rumors have been swirling as they always do this time of year, but barring a reunion between Drew Brees and LT in the Big Easy, Thomas looks to be the guy to own in the Saint’s backfield heading forward.

Felix Jones – 1.41 FPT – How did Arkansas not win a national championship with Jones and Darren McFadden in their backfield?  I’m pretty sure I could have coached that team to 11 wins using a Tecmo Bowl playbook.  This silky smooth sophomore was putting up HUGE numbers with his limited chances early in the season before suffering a hamstring injury that translated into what was essentially a lost season.  Never fear, reports out of Dallas are that Jerry Jones wants to hand a bigger portion of the workload to Jones to help keep sledgehammer Marion Barber fresh.  The loss of the Tuman Oeadache also means the Cowboys will rely more on the ground game this season.  Don’t expect Jones to keep averaging nearly a point and a half per touch, but 950 yards and 8 touchdowns with contributions in the passing game and special teams is well within his reach.

Ahmad Bradshaw – .67 FPT – This one may be a stretch for some of you, but when I look around the league at muddy backfield situations in Denver, New England and Baltimore, you could do a lot worse than nabbing this diminutive fireball in the mid-to-late rounds of your league’s draft.  Bradshaw will be 23 at the start of the season, and he has averaged 6.1 YPC for his career in a limited role with the G-Men.  Derrick Ward’s breakout season stunted his growth last year, but word out of Giants camp is that the coaching staff is excited to see what Bradshaw can do with an increased role this year.  Translation: this guy could reward savvy owners with 800-900 yards and handful of touchdowns.  Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser but he doesn’t catch passes and he doesn’t stay healthy for full seasons … look for Bradshaw to open some eyes this year.

Wide Receivers

Top-Tier Peers:

Calvin Johnson – 3.38 FPT
Greg Jennings – 3.23 FPT
Larry Fitzgerald – 3.19 FPT
Roddy White – 2.89 FPT
Andre Johnson – 2.71 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Vincent Jackson – 3.30 FPT – Jackson’s size and speed combo served as a frustration to his owners in his first three seasons in the NFL.  Surely a guy with his physical gifts would dominate the league … it was just a matter of time.  Well, fantasy owners are not known for their patience but dynasty leaguers that held on to Jackson during his steady upward trends early in his career reaped the rewards of a very quietly productive season in 2008.  A physical freak at 6’5″ 230 lbs with a lightning quick explosion off the line and tremendous leaping ability, Jackson is a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses.  Another year in the saddle for Philip Rivers and the emergence of Jackson as a legitimate red zone threat could result in a top-5 WR next season for those that call his number on draft day.

Steve Breaston – 2.40 FPT – This is me saying I don’t think Boldin is coming back to the Cards.  Nobody (including the Cardinal’s front office as evidenced by the selection of Early Doucet last April) saw this second year man from Michigan ascending to the ranks of fantasy relevance before last season.  When Boldin exits stage east (hello Philly?), Breaston will step into his vacated spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  With the attention the braided one will command on the other side, Kurt Warner and Breaston will be free to carve up opposing defenses between the 20s.  Double-digit touchdowns may be a bit optimistic with the variety of weapons at Warner’s disposal, but 90 catches and 1,200 yards is well within reach for this dynamic speedster.  Invest.

Lee Evans – 2.80 FPT – Uncertainty at the quarterback position and a lack of talent around him have hurt Evans’ production throughout his NFL career.  Despite these limiting factors, the supremely talented former Badger has never missed a game and has never averaged less than 15 yards per catch in any of his five seasons.  Enter TO … with the flamboyant prima donna drawing the attention of defenses and media outlets alike, Evans will be freed up to work over the top without facing the double and triple teams that have held his stats in check thus far.  Another point to consider … Lee’s numbers have never been about quantity but QUALITY of his catches (averaging less than 60 catches per season) … TO commanding 80-90 balls will not cut into his value as some have speculated.  I anticipate a HUGE season for Evans in the 75-80 catch neighborhood with 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

first published on March 10, 2009

Ask Papa Weimer: Pre-Season #2

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I’m back. More questions, seemingly better answers than before. This week we tackle auction drafts, the 1st Round wide receiver situation, and the “lack” of running backs – and even Brett Favre. It’s late and my knees are acting up, I’ll try my best not to take it out on the question askers. But that doesn’t mean all that BS about no question being a stupid question is true – there are tons of stupid questions – try me next week.

Graham “Big Worm” from Lower Columbia, WA asks, “What is your take on Brett Favre. The guy gets more coverage than an Anna Kournikova sex tape, which quite honestly chaps my ass, but if he can play he should play, right?” From a fantasy perspective should I dump Trent Edwards, my current back-up, and snatch up the old man?

You got it right on the button Big Worm. The way I see it is pretty simple. Brett Favre threw around retirement like he throws underhand backwards pitches to running backs. He wasn’t quite sure, but didn’t want the Packers relying on him being around so he called it quits, thinking that if he wanted to come back they would obviously welcome him with open arms. The trick was on him. The Packers decided to go with Aaron Rodgers (good move, because the youngster is legit) and did all they could to convince Favre to stay retired, even going as far as offering him money to do nothing. I’m not positive, but I bet that pissed Ol’ Brett off something fierce and it probably made him want to play even more. But the Packers didn’t want to face Brett, and trading him within their own division to help an opponent out made absolutely no sense to them. But Brett’s a competitor, so surely, right off the bat, he wanted to play against his former team and jam it right up their backside. Since he couldn’t, he toughed out a year in Jet-land, gave it all he had, ups and downs, just missed the playoffs, and thus retired again. Giving him exactly what he wanted, the Jets released his rights. That gave Favre the freedom to play wherever he wanted. Brett’s not the first guy to run right back to his old division and sign up with a rival. When let go, lots of guys take it personally, and some have even been known to give up some money for a couple chances a year at their old team. I think that’s freaking awesome. So now he’s in Minnesota and he’s going to give it his all to try and make the Vikings a championship level team. Will he? I’m not sure either way, but I’ll be watching, that’s for damn sure. Now a bunch of people are pissed that he retired and came back and retired and came back, but those people are stupid. Some people think it’s terrible that he went to the Packers’ rival. But it’s that same competitive spirit that made him as great a player as he is. So those people aren’t thinking past go either. Basically, I like it. If he wants to play, can play, and can get someone to pay him to do so, by all means, play until your shriveled up my man!!! As for all the coverage. Blah. I’m sick of it, and my TV is out. I can only imagine how you feel. Fantasy-wise, of course he’s going to have some value. That team is pretty stacked. Peterson is obviously a beast. Berrian has elite speed and Brett can get him the ball. Percy Harvin is dynamite. Even Shiancoe is a solid TE. That line will keep Brett standing. So all things look good except all those rushing attempts should keep him from big yardage. But he’ll still a decent back-up. However, I’d stick with Edwards. I know you don’t have much time, but Edwards is in that new hurry up, with lots of passing, two very good receivers, and some running backs that are solid catching out of the back-field. He’s very accurate, and you never know, this could be a big breakout year for him. But it’s close to a wash, so if you’re feeling one way, go with your gut. I have to listen to my gut, the thing is enormous.

Paul the Perv writes, “I’m in an auction draft and I was wondering if there’s any plan of attack that you try in these kind of drafts? I’m brand new to them and I’m not sure if nominating a guy gives me a better or worse chance in getting him on my team. Any ideas?”

Why are all Paul’s pervs? Hopefully your last name is Pervis or something like that, or maybe you’re just cleverly named as a common man. Regardless, I have answers to your dilemma. I’ve found all auction drafts to be a little different, and have become a big fan of them over the last few years. What I’ve found works best is nominating high-hype guys early in the draft. Guys that you think are a little overrated and currently getting loved on by the public. Now usually what this will do is get your league-mates to overpay for these overvalued players, leaving you with good money to get good value. That’s always my goal. Now sometimes I do this and as it turns out, everyone believes me that a guy is overrated and I end up bidding on the guy because his new value is much better. I almost never cross a guy off my list, everyone has value, but my goal is to make people overpay so I can underpay. Guys like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald are all guys I’d love to have, but they are all getting overvalued. (Even my nephew ranks Forte #2, which I think is too high) So if it was up to me, I’d call their names early if I got the chance, and see if I can’t get people overpaying for services. Hope that helps Perv!

Too Tall Tom from Onalaska asks, “I know you’re a big running back guy in the first couple rounds, but every year is different, is it okay for me to go WR in the first couple rounds this year?”

Sure man, in fact, I think going WR as early as 6th overall isn’t too ridiculous this season. Once you get out of that top tier of running backs, there’s a lot of equality there. And while I don’t buy this whole “the receiver cupboard is bare” BS that seems to be milling around draft rooms, I do think that there is a quick drop-off from elite to good to worth a shot. There are seemingly hundreds of receivers worth a shot. There’s a lot of guys I’d consider good options. But there’s very few ELITE #1s out there. Not enough for everyone to have a couple, that’s for sure. With RBs, there’s a lot of guys that I would be fine starting, and I’m talking about guys you can get in rounds 3-8. So, I’ve had some drafts in which I went WR early, the earliest being the 6th. I had Steve Slaton as my next best RB available, but he wasn’t too far ahead of a lot of the solid backs left, so I went with Larry Fitz and his elite consistency and overall numbers. On the way back (it was a 10 team league, which are the ideal type of leagues to go WR early) I still got Steve Slaton. With my 3rd pick I grabbed Steve Smith, and with my 4th pick I went with Kevin Smith, another guy we like here within the fantasy staff. So I got two number 1 receivers, and two young running backs that had solid years and possess lots of upside. If I went RB with my first two picks, I wouldn’t be much better in my backfield, but I would be worse at WR. That’s the kind of thing you have to think about during the draft, where’s the value? Sure, I went WR a lot earlier than usual. But I got the guy I think is the best player at that position – at a position with fewer elite players. So yes, in short, sometimes it’s good to be different.

Noah, from “just outside the ark” thinks out loud, “All the things I read are saying that WR is shallow this year and RBs are deep, do you actually believe this?”

No, and yes. I don’t believe that either position is actually shallow, but in a way, both are kind of shallow in the “elite” category. In years’ past there are lots of guys getting 80% of their team’s carries, at least. This year, there are fewer of those type running backs. Fewer proven carry-horses. So that makes getting one of those main guys a bonus, if you can. At WR you have the same type of thing, lots of guys with lots of upside, but not so many guys that can get drafted without at lest a little question mark by their production. Now nothing is guaranteed. Vince Young could get pouty in Week 1, feel bad that people are booing him, and never start another game the rest of the year. But those crazy things being written off as just crazy, I think you can find great options all over the draft at any of these positions. Would I rather have Roddy White, Larry Fitz, and Andre Johnson than Dominik Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Nate Burelson? You bet. But should all 6 guys be owned? Definitely. Could all 6 be starter worthy during the year? You bet. I actually think, that with all the “sharing is caring” going around the NFL, having specialty players do certain things, carry in certain situations, and having 3 and 4 WRs, this is actually one of the “deepest” seasons in fantasy football that I’ve ever researched and took part in. There are so many players at all the positions, even TE has a grip of valuable guys. I got Tim Hightower and Julius Jones as 4th and 5th running backs, in rounds 11 and 12, for a league I’m in. That’s two starters. Hightower is young and scores touchdowns, and even though Beanie Wells is there, he’s still starting. And Julius Jones is in a scheme that should use his running ability well, and he’s done well when getting 20 carries a game. So while they are not starters in terms of top fantasy backs, they are still two actual NFL starters that could produce for me this season. Don’t believe the hype, shallow and deep are very arbitrary, especially this year.

2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers

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This season I’m giving you 10 sleepers. And by sleeper I mean: a player previously unrecognized as a fantasy contributor in 10 team leagues with 16 roster spots. What does that mean? It means I won’t be giving you sleepers like Ryan Grant, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, DeSean Jackson, Devin Hester, Zach Miller, and Matt Cassel – all of which are certainly being undervalued, yes, but all are getting drafted in every single league, some as starters, and many of which either broke out last season, are still very new to the NFL, or have seen success in the past. These are not sleepers, these are undervalued players – the difference is grand. Sleepers, like I mentioned before, are previously unknown performers that could very well break onto the scene like Maurice Jones Drew a few years ago, DeSean Jackson early last year, Marques Colston before that, Pierre Thomas last season, Brandon Jacobs a few years back, and even Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen last year. Undrafted players, players out of the 160 list. What is the 160 list? That is the players drafted (on average) in the Top 160 players. Yahoo Fantasy Football keeps track, which is nice, because now I can be sure not to put one of the Top 160 drafted players in my sleeper list.

I’m also dumping the idea of write-ups on all the popular sleepers this season like Earl Bennett (Jay Cutler’s college #1), Mike Walker (the uber-talented and oft-injured 3rd year WR), Pierre Garcon (Peyton’s personal favorite for the #3 role), Shonn Greene (a rookie beast in Jet-land) and Hakeem Nicks (Plaxico’s rookie replacement?).

These are guys I haven’t seen listed as sleepers. I’m picking them out to surprise.

These 10 sleepers will go undrafted in most leagues, but at least half of these 10 will finish the season as a valuable force in fantasy football – so if your league is deep, or you want to take a chance on upside, reach for one of these freebies. Let the games begin!

(And by the way, all these players were selected prior to pre-season action)

Chaz Schilens

Chaz is going to be the top receiver in Oakland. That will, at the very least, make him ownable in most fantasy leagues. He isn’t going to set the world on fire like Lance Moore did early last year, but the Raider WR will catch a fair share of bombs from JaMarcus Russell as every defense in the league puts 8 in the box trying to halt that rushing attack. And why would they give much attention to a guy like Chaz? His name is Chaz. That being said, he’s got tons of speed, solid hands, and has proven the most polished receiver this off season. Zach Miller may be Russell’s favorite target, and he’ll probably be the top fantasy pass catcher in Oakland, but Chaz will be the top receiver in Oak town, and that will make him an asset this season. (60 receptions, 820 yards, 4 TDs)

Nate Burleson

After an injury filled 2008 (for just about everyone playing in Seattle) the Hawks are ready to turn their fortunes around, gather behind new head coach Jim Mora, and put up points in 2009. Nate Burleson is going to play a huge role in that master plan. Burleson is the most dynamic of all the Seahawk receivers, and that includes big money free agent T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Burleson has always done a lot with his touches, and already he’s being listed ahead of Seattle’s former number one, Deion Branch. That puts Nate and his lime green gloves opposite Housh in what should be a very solid receiving corps in Sea Town. Burleson will benefit from attention paid to Housh, Jim Mora’s love for the play action pass, and defenses focusing in on the run game. Nate is rarely getting drafted in leagues owned by a tiny little percentile of the public, but he’s a starter on a team with a good offense and accurate quarterback. I don’t get it. Seems like a no-brainer to me. (68 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TDs)

James Jones

To be fair, I’ve always loved the way James Jones plays the game. He’s a beast. He’s a poor-man’s Anquan Boldin – he goes over the middle and takes on tacklers as if he’s hitting them. There have been stories praising his off-season work, his impressive play in camp, and his head coach’s promises to get him more involved. Not a bad turn-around for a guy who basically lost the #3 job to Jordy Nelson last season. On a team full of solid receiving options I thin Jones will have his best season yet. He’s still just a #3, but here’s a guy that could blow up if an injury derails either Donald Driver or Greg Jennings’ this season. There aren’t a lot of #3’s that could come in off the bench and produce like top options, but I believe Jones can do that. Not only that, but he’s a big time red-zone threat and will likely produce enough to be owned in fantasy leagues even without an injury to one of the top guys in GB. Solid now, huge upside. (55 receptions, 640 yards, 6 TDs)

Laurent Robinson

I also liked Laurent when he was a Falcon, but for some reason they dumped the guy and stuck with Michael Jenkins opposite Roddy White. That’s okay, because now Laurent will have a chance to be the receiving red-zone option in St. Louis. Sure, I know what you’re saying, 12 trips to the red-zone all season doesn’t allow for any receiver to be called a red-zone threat. But I think the Rams will be better offensively this season. Not hard to improve on last year, a year in which I thought they were the worst team in football. (Maybe not record-wise, thanks to Detroit – the worst team ever, the Rams slipped by without much mocking from the gallery – but they were BAD) Donnie Avery may be the #1 guy, but Robinson had a clear lead on the #2 job, and Avery going down for a possible 6 week absence only gives Robinson more of a chance to cuddle up to Marc Bulger. And as much as Marc’s been hit, he could use a go-to guy. Robinson is in a great situation for targets, and his talent should prove enough to make him an own-able asset this season. (60 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TDs)

Bernard Scott

I don’t know why, but I have yet to find a reason to be in love with Cedric Benson as a starting running back, even if it is in Cincinnati. Even so, Benson will never be a burner, never be a game breaking presence that can score anytime he touches the ball. I’m rooting for the guy, yes, but he’ll be a bruiser at the very best, struggling through the bumps and bruises to get 4 yards a carry on a good day. That’s where Bernard Scott comes in. Scott is a burner – both in life and on the football field. The guy has had his fair share of troubles, no doubt about that, which is why the immensely talented runner found himself in Division II, which is why he found himself drafted at the end of the 2nd day, which is why nobody gives him much of a shot to succeed. But look into his game, listen to what his teammates say about him, watch him run, and you’ll start to believe. Some will say that he’s sure to become just another Cincinnati Jail-Bird, but I don’t see it. I see a kid that is going to run into success. His speed and vision had him throwing out college touchdown totals that LenDale White would be proud of. On a team that could use a talented game breaker in the back field, Scott looks to be in line for some nice touches this year. (500 yards rushing, 45 receptions, 400 yards receiving, 6 total touchdowns)

James Davis

Jamal Lewis is one of three things: either he’s lying on his birth certificate, his legs are twice his actual age, or he’s been in the league for half his adult life. All point to trouble staying healthy this season. Lewis has been a beast. He’s surprised, disappointed, and surprised again – and there’s really no telling what he does this year in an offense that looks anything but impressive, stuck right in the middle of a very tough division with two of the greatest defensive teams the NFL has. But he’s 29 going on 40 and unless he sipped from the golden goblet of youth this off-season, a full load is something he’s terribly unlikely to carry. That leaves room for a talented youngster in Cleveland. And while I’ve always like James Harrison, the former WSU Cougar hasn’t been all that impressive over his career. That leaves room for a bulldozer from Clemson to get some looks in Cleveland’s backfield. The Browns have a solid offensive line, which could be just the thing James Davis needs to succeed. Two years ago, at Clemson, Davis was a beast. People looked at him as a first day pick because of his size, athleticism, and speed. Last year, he struggled behind a mediocre offensive line and lost some of his luster. But word is he’s been great in camp, and I’ve always liked his style. Given a chance, he could be a steal for fantasy owners. (600 yards, 6 TDs – but he could be a second half stud, so pay attention)

Daunte Culpepper

Daunte has been big time before, but face it, he’s of the sleeper quality here. He hasn’t had a successful year in quite some time, and he’s just not getting drafted at all. Everyone has given up on Culpepper, everyone besides me. So yeah, I’ll be the guy to tell you “Draft this guy as your back-up instead of Chad Pennington, one of the rookies, or Jake Delhomme.” I may have not ranked him high, but he’s moving up my list. He’s got a great young running back in Kevin Smith. He has one of the most talented receivers I’ve ever seen. The Lions drafted a top-flight TE with great hands in Brandon Petitgrew. Sure, the Lions also drafted Matthew Stafford 1st overall, but I’m willing to bet Culpepper gets the starting job in Detroit, and I’m thinking he pulls a Drew Brees and keeps the job. Pep was an absolute stud for a couple years in Minnesota. Then it rained, and when it rains some guys get drenched, and Pep was one of those guys. But you can’t tell me he lost all his talent. Well you can, but I won’t believe you. Not until I get a chance to see him fail. I picked him last night in one of my drafts, he’s my back-up, and worst case scenario – he’ll be relegated to back-up duties and I’ll drop him, but I only wasted a 14th round pick on the guy anyway. I’ll pick up some other QB and hope he can keep my bye week warm when my starter goes down. On the upside, Pep gets to run a talented group of young players in Detroit, and breaks the 20 TD mark for the first time in a long time. I’ll take my chances. (3400 yards, 22 TDs, 240 rushing yards, 2 TDs)

Jacoby Jones

Everyone picked this cat to beat out Kevin Walter last season, but injuries and the fact that Walter is better than your average white guy sent Jones to the showers. But he’s still very talented, and lots of hard work, effort, and commitment has him rocking summer camps. Jones has the talent to be a #2, and you never know, he might get his chance. Andre Johnson hasn’t been the beacon of health in his short career, and Jones could be his fill in. Right off the bat I see Jones getting in and making things happen as a #3, and I’m telling you, his upside is better. I’m not projecting great numbers from Jones, but if he puts it all together, and gets a chance somewhere down the line, he could put up these kinds of totals in 6 or 7 weeks. Might be worth a chance in deep leagues. (40 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TDs)

Laurence Maroney

I may be looking in the past here, where I saw a great running back with speed, size, and super vision coming out of Minnesota. I thought he’d be perfect for Mike Shanahan’s scheme in Denver, but he got drafted by the Patriots, a team looking for a guy to replace the aging Corey Dillon. It’s been a few years since then, and still, Maroney’s best season for the Patriots was in back-up duty to Dillon. But the talent is there. He’s gone through lots of injuries and had his psyche hurt a few times. He, undoubtedly, has the most upside of any Patriot back right now. Sammy Morris has been successful, Fred Taylor has had one of the more successful careers amongst all RBs, and Maroney has just been a bust so far. But I’m telling you, a very late pick for a talented back in an offense that will likely run the ball more than in years past has a good ring to it. The upside is grand. The downside is a waiver wire move. He’s worth the risk. (1000 yards, 8 TDs)

Justin Forsett

As much as I’m hoping Julius Jones is allowed to run the ball 20 times a game this season, nobody has really given him that opportunity, ever. TJ Ducket? – come one, get serious here. That leaves Justin Forsett, a guy that might just get the Warrick Dunn role in a Seahawks backfield that Jim Mora is trying to figure out. Jones will get a couple games to show he can be the man, and his 4.4 yards a carry last season makes him a nice sleeper candidate as well (but he’s ranked too high to make my sleeper list) so why not throw out Forsett’s name. Because even though he’s listed as the #3, he’ll certainly hold more value than T.J. Duckett. Keep an eye on Forsett, draft him as a last round sleeper in deep leagues, and as soon as Jones has some trouble, or even sooner than that, he might get a chance to be more than just a change of pace back, and Forsett might be an absolute steal for you. (600 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 4 TDs)

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

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History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.

Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

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Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons – that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner – in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway – haha) and let me know what you think.  Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.


  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
  2. Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
  3. Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
  4. Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
  5. Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
  6. Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented – not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
  7. Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
  8. DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
  9. Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
  10. Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
  11. Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves – if Cutler goes there, watch out)
  12. Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
  13. Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
  14. Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
  15. Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD – plus he’s young)
  16. Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games – + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
  17. Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit – he’s a stud – a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
  18. Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
  19. Steve Smith (His age – and physicality – drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan – and as fun to watch as anyone in the league – look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
  20. Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old – he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years – and we’re the exact same age, to the day – it’s fate! ha)
  21. Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
  22. Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
  23. Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” – hide and seek champ – he’d rank higher)
  24. Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 – I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
  25. Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses – the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
  26. Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
  27. Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
  28. Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him – but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
  29. Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
  30. Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
  31. Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom – but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
  32. Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
  33. Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two – Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
  34. Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense – only his second year – could be great)
  35. Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low – still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number – Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
  36. Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
  37. Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
  38. Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs – only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
  39. Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day – on the football field he’s a great RB option)
  40. Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body – should be much better than he was last season, and still very young – doesn’t have great speed though)
  41. Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated – he’s a young 29 though)
  42. Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
  43. Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues – still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
  44. LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled – and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart – LT still has it, for at least another year)
  45. Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
  46. Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams – oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
  47. TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football – he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid – but he’s 32 this season – which drops him a bit)
  48. Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there – this guy has all the tools – probably a good time to invest)
  49. Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
  50. Matt Cassel (risky? maybe – but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach – not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
  51. Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say – still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
  52. Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking – still, the risk brings him down a bit)
  53. Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
  54. Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head – for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean – still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
  55. Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
  56. DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
  57. Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
  58. Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good – should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
  59. Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that – McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
  60. Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still – one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract – I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo – he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
  61. Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid – add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year – even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
  62. Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
  63. Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit – turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
  64. Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback – hell, this is too low – but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
  65. Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant – what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something – he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
  66. Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think – probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
  67. Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
  68. Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least – still, better to risk on upside)
  69. Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number – all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
  70. Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet – do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance – but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him – not great upside here though)
  71. Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
  72. David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season – and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year – 12th overall)
  73. Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there – talentwise – with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
  74. Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years – I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
  75. Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me – but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around – the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
  76. Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
  77. Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher – if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
  78. Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season – still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
  79. Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
  80. Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what – Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
  81. Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
  82. Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
  83. Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
  84. Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
  85. Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated – even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
  86. Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
  87. Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
  88. Chris Cooley (what a character – Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
  89. Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good – that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up – lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
  90. John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
  91. Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
  92. Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that – something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good – still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
  93. Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season – Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores – I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
  94. Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds – still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
  95. Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points – his last 9 were good for 110)
  96. Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
  97. Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE – still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
  98. Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  99. Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  100. Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
  101. Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
  102. Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
  103. Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
  104. Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
  105. James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
  106. Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
  107. Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
  108. Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
  109. Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
  110. JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland – I believe JaMarcus!)
  111. Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid – no doubt about that – however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished – he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
  112. Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time – get the hell over it – I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)

One for Wednesday, Three for Thursday, Five for Friday too

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Hoorays for the Day!!!

1. Sammy Morris as a Week 14 pick-up that will help multiple fantasy owners.

2. Scarlet Johanson.

3. Dominik Hixon’s value doubling in one idiotic second.

4. A perfect example about to be set – high paid receivers don’t make teams great.

5. Dustin Keller’s prompt rise to must-start.

6. Victoria Secret fashion show being televised in prime time.

I could care less, but since I don’t, I’ll share these anyway…

1. Willis McGahee could play this weekend.

2. MTV (except for Rob and Big and Jackass reruns)

3. Joseph Addai goes up against a bad defense that doesn’t tackle well- great.

4. The Lions get the #1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

5. Skinny Jeans, on anybody – I don’t care, they aren’t flattering. Okay, maybe on Scarlet.

Booooos and Hisses!!!

1. Mayor’s that “want to throw the book” and say it publicly. If you want to throw books, don’t be a damn mayor you idiot – own a used book stoor.

2. Rich people owning guns without permits.

3. Food poisoning, wasps, and stale chips.

4. Getting shot in the leg, shooting someone else in the leg, even worse yet – shooting yourself in the leg.

5. Picking up Darren McFadden for the stretch run.

6. Expecting Ronnie Brown to get 20 carries.

7. Steven Jackson’s health versus his pay check.

8. Walking with scissors… RUN!!! RUN!!!

9. Owning Dallas Cowboys during fantasy playoffs.

10. Predicting Philadelphia Eagle outputs.

11. Helping your buddy out – and having that buddy be Plaxico Burress. Antonio, I would have done the same thing buddy – tough deck of cards you had to play there.

Ten for Tuesday

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Here’s a little review of some amazing things that happened this weekend, things that I would like to bring to everyone’s attention. 

1. The Oakland freaking Raiders absolutely lambasted the Denver Broncos. Yes folks, everyone’s favorite young quarterback, Jay Cutler, couldn’t do anything right, throwing into double coverage early and often, and paying the price. Even more amazingly, the Raiders only forced JaMarcus Russell into one incomplete pass – one. How pathetic is that? Ever more so, I think that was an intentional throw away. If Denver’s defense was any worse I would get them confused with a combination of the WSU Cougars and UW Huskies. Gross. 

2. Don’t look now but the Falcons don’t seem all that interested in getting carried away with their redemption song and losing their way out of the playoffs down the stretch. They won again at home, and took out a pretty good Panther team that has dominated in games where they have run the ball well. They ran well on Sunday, and they passed alright too, but Michael Turner did dirty work and erupted for 4 touchdowns. Is anybody still questioning this guy? And who thinks Atlanta made the right move by taking Matt Ryan over Glenn Dorsey? Yes, I must admit, I didn’t think that was a very good decision and I was DEAD Wrong about that one. That’s the 3rd time I’ve been wrong in the last 9 years. 

3. Donovan McNabb got benched. We’ll see how that works out. He’s back in action for Week 13, but a guy that has never done all that well with his teammates not believing in him should have trouble, even against the Cardinals secondary. We’ll see – I hope not, but that offense is a joke these days, and Donovan is getting throw right under the bus for Andy Reid’s shortcomings. 

4. Braylon Edwards dropped three more passes. Ahem, when is this trend going to stop?

5. After coming up just short on 3rd down Sunday Night, the Chargers inserted their collective head right in their own tail pipe and called an immediate timeout to think about their next move. Nice work fellas. Whoever was responsible for that timeout should immediately get in-game clock management decisions taken away from him. Instead of leaving the Colts a minute left with the game tied, Peyton and company get 1:30. As it turned out the Colts drive down and get a 51 yard field goal to win the game. How much do you think 30 extra seconds helped them? Well, it was 4th and 1 for the Colts with 26 seconds left, so… Well, I know you can’t assume the Colts wouldn’t have gotten further – but in those precious 30 seconds, the Colts went from the 48 to the 33 and spiked the ball with 2 seconds left. Nobody said anything – well I”M SAYING SOMETHING NOW – What a dumb call Norv, or whoever did it. 

6. The Lions were up 17-0. I was never worried about covering, and even less worried about Warrick Dunn having a big day. Oh the Lions are bad folks, B – A – D. I really think they don’t win a game this year – I know that doesn’t happen, but who are they going to beat?

7. Drew Brees just toys with opposing defenses. Watching him throw perfect bull’s eye darts to his guys running delayed crossing patterns is really a treat. And he’s having an amazing year and on pace to break Dan Marino’s yardage records. However, please recognize Kurt Old Man Wife Look Alike Warner – that guy has been just as amazing. He’s only 68 yards behind Drew, and I think he’s been more consistent. He’s also doing it in Arizona. Do work Kurt! 

8. Matt Cassel made last week look a lot less like a fluke. He threw for over 400 yards again, leading the Patriots past the Dolphins. Is this guy getting paid next year or what? And does he become a nice sleeper keeper in dynasty leagues? I think there’s a good chance of that. Crazy how a year can change a player’s value – just like that he went from everyone saying he should get cut, to everyone’s new favorite QB free agent. Philly, Seattle, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Detroit, St. Louis, Tennessee?, San Francisco, seems like there might be some suiters. 

9. Clinton Portis is a beast – and he’s been pretty damn good all season long, but this Adrian Peterson guy looks destined for the league lead in rushing yards. Portis is up right around 25 yards right now, but the Vikings main man seems to be getting stronger as the season goes forward, and that’s bad news for teams going into Minnesota for the rest of the season.  

10. Those experts that thought Mike Turner was the real deal – you guys are smart. The kid can really run with power, vision, and patience. He’s a bowling ball with lots of speed, and he’ll only get better as the team continues to build around their young talent. And by the way, he’s basically locked up a fantasy lead over the guy he backed up for the last 4 years. (Pat on my own back, basically)

10 for Tuesday

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What’s up folks – hopefully you didn’t have as bad a fantasy week as I had. If it wasn’t the refs getting me down, it was the Cleveland Browns ability to properly tackle anyone. How they won that game is beyond me. All being said, I’m still basically a lock for the playoffs in most leagues I’m in, so now (in Week 12) I’m looking for great playoff match-ups with relatively unowned players, and some guys you might be able to snipe from your opponents in the last week before the trade deadline (if yours hasn’t passed yet). Here’s a few that strike my fancy. 

Ahmad Bradshaw: Not only do I think he’s probably the best all around back in New York (though obviously the Giants don’t think so, and that’s what matters), but Bradshaw looks to get a lot more carries going down the stretch. If the NFC keeps playing like they’re playing, and the Giants keep playing like they’re playing, some rest for their main horses will be in the cards for people like Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress. Bradshaw may play tough defenses, but the Giants have shown that they can run on anyone. If Bradshaw gets 12-18 carries he’s a nice starting option down the stretch. 

Dominic Hixon: I feel the same way about Hixon that I do about Bradshaw. Super talented kid that, when he gets chances, does work. His secondary schedule is a little better than Bradshaw’s run defense schedule, and you know Plax will be the first Giant to get some time off. 

Peyton Manning: Everyone knows Peyton, but unlike previous seasons, these Colts are going to have to try to win until the end, and that’s great for Manning and his easy breazy schedule down the stretch. If you can get him, for the first time in a long time, he might be my favorite signal caller to own down the stretch. 

Larry Johnson: Interesting play here, but his Week 13, 14, and 15 schedule looks like this… Oakland (YAY!), Denver (AWESOME!), and San Diego (CHEER-E-O). Larry got lots of carries in his first game back, and there’s no reason to think that Herm goes away from him down the stretch. 

Pierre Thomas: The kid is a shot in the dark, because of Reggie Bush, Deuce and such – but he’s the best actual running back in New Orleans, and the Saints play the Falcons in Week 14 and the Lions in Week 16- and there’s a chance he could be the guy getting those looks toward the end of the season. Historically the kid is solid when he gets touches. 

Joey Galloway: Joey was held without a catch last week and hasn’t scored more than 5 fantasy points this year, not more than 3 since opening day – but you look at the Bucs schedule going forward and you have to see a shot at some light from the 37 year old receiver. Vikings, Lions, Saints, Panthers (tough match-up), Falcons, Chargers, Raiders… It seems like the tough part of the Bucs schedule is over, Galloway could be a nice pick-up if you need help at receiver. 

Warrick Dunn: Caddy Williams is getting some love and I hope the kid comes back and does good work for TB, but you have to be real, and WD40 is going to be the guy getting the load of the carries. You saw Joey’s Buc schedule above – Warrick’s is the same – a good pick up down the stretch. 

Brandon Jones: Justin Gage will be the cat added to everyone’s team this week, and that’s fine, but Jones is a nice option too, especially with the Jets coming up next week (Tennessee will probably have to throw on them) and then the Lions, Browns, and Texans immediately following. Kerry can throw the ball alright, and lately this team has been more balanced. 

Jerry Porter: If you feel like shooting at a small hoop, very far away, in the dark – Jerry might be your guy. The talent is there, he might steal a starting spot with Matt Jones looking to miss some games, and nobody else in Jacksonville has separated themselves from the rest of the receiving pack. Vikings this week, then the Texans, then the Bears and Packers – not great secondaries, he might be worth a shot. 

Gus Frerotte: Ugh, I know. But the Jags, Lions, and Cardinals all come to town in 3 of the next four weeks. Gus has his best games at home, and none of those secondaries scare me much. I’m sure the Vikings will be tied to Adrian Peterson, but some hook ups between Gus and Berrian are in the cards.

Five for Friday

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I missed a couple this week, but I can only blame Comcast – those bastards!!! Here’s some help for those in need. 

For those Dynasty Gurus – watch these guys this weekend- they are all special and should find places in your early rookie draft next season. 

LeSean McCoy – Underrated and a definite NFL runner. Great power and slide and speed. He has the vision to be good from the get go. 

Beanie Wells – This one is obvious, but I expect just about 200 yards against the Illini. He’s going to be a good one and runs with some toughness you don’t normally see. 

Darrius Heyward-Bey – Special player. He might not get all the pub that Maclin and Crabtree and Dez get down there in the Big 12, and his numbers won’t match up, but this kid is a beast and fast enough to make all the plays. Get him late on draft day and reap the benefits. 

Glen Coffee – I imagine Coffee comes out, and he should. He had a huge game last week against LSU and should continue to prove himself. He’s a fast kid and has a great frame to add some size. He is just 21 and could be a very good one with his slashing style. 

Now for some guys I expect to have huge Sundays…

Brandon Marshall – he hasn’t done all that much lately – that should just get him ready for a humongous day this Sunday against Atlanta. 

Tyler Thigpen – New Orleans will score points, but I like KC to possibly pull the upset here – that means Tyler will have to be on his best behavior. 

Ronnie Brown – It seems like Ricky has been getting more looks than Ronnie lately, but Brown is the better runner and I think he has 100+ yards against the terrible Raiders this weekend. He might even throw one, hasn’t had a TD pass in a while. 

Matt Forte – he’ll do it all for the Bears against the Pack this weekend. 

Frank Gore – should be HUGE against the Rams – he’s too good to not bust out in this game against a terrible defensive front. 

Chris Johnson – after a very tough week against Chicago, this super rookie will dominate the Jags front line – I’m willing to suggest he has one of his best days as a Titan. 

Upsets of the Week… 

Cleveland will take down Buffalo I reckon, and I’m looking at the Chiefs to grab a big one at home against the overrated Saints.