Tag Archives: Week 9 NCAA Picks

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5) Football Pick: A larger percent of the public likes LSU in this one, so much so that the line has dropped to 7.5 from the 9.5 opening. When I made my pick, it was an 8.5 point spread. The public bet is starting to even out, but I can see why most of the bettors like LSU and the points in this one. They’ve lost just one game all year, and that was too one of the Nation’s best teams, Florida, in a very close game, 13-3.

The problem I have with LSU is their ability to score. They’ve struggled offensively against good teams, and Alabama’s swarming defense is one of the best in the nation. The Tide have a fantastic rushing game, and a young quarterback that doesn’t make big mistakes, just 3 interceptions so far this season. Alabama plays the right way, using their run game to out-physical opponents, and the play action pass to stick daggers.

Flat out, I just think LSU is not as good as Alabama. Their rushing attack isn’t as efficient, their offensive line isn’t as good, and as a team their defense isn’t as dominant as the Crimson Tide. I think Alabama has a big performance in this one, beating LSU easily, basically looking a lot better than Florida did when the Gators beat the Tigers earlier this season.

Last season’s win over LSU was Alabama’s first since 2002. The Tigers have beaten the Gators in 7 of their last 8 meetings. The Tigers have finished under the total in each of their last 4 games. The Crimson Tide have finished under the total in each of their last three. Alabama hasn’t lost at home since 2007.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Tennessee Volunteers Pick

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South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I know that I always take the unranked favorite over the ranked dog, but this one is going to be different. Favoring the Vols here is based solely off their ability to play close to top ranked teams, without ever winning of course. Well, despite what people have chosen to believe, these Gamecocks can play ball. At 6-2 they’ve lost a close one at Georgia and another tough one on the road at Alabama. Now, the Vols beat up on Georgia, but the Bulldogs were working against themselves in that one, Tennessee just had to show up to take advantage. Despite that one game, Tennessee hasn’t shown the offensive explosion to be a 6.5 point favorite against a solid team, especially not one with a powerful defense. Expect the Gamecocks to cover in Tennessee. I do.

Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Free Pick

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Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6) Free Pick: First of all, rarely do Texas Tech Red Raider games come down to 6 points, so if you think the Raiders are going to win, a 6 point spread shouldn’t worry you at all. And it doesn’t worry me. I know Kansas had a nice run to start the season, but you saw how out-matched they were last week when Oklahoma absolutely blew them out of the water. Texas Tech isn’t Oklahoma, but they do have the offensive ability to crush the Jayhawks. What makes me like the Red Raiders even more are the words from Mike Leach’s mouth about how the Raiders are playing like piss because of their fat little girl friends. Awesome. If that doesn’t get their attention, nothing will. After beating up on Nebraska, the Red Raiders fell to Texas A&M, and they fell hard. I think Leach’s antics and just being a better football team gets them back on track this week at home, then Jayhawks just happen to be the team in the way. Texas Tech has taken each of the last 3 meetings with Kansas, and 6 out of the last 7. Last year the Red Raiders smoked the Jayhawks, 63-21. They can put up some points, and since Kansas has yet to slow down any reasonable offense whatsoever, I can’t see them doing anything to slow one of the most dynamic offenses in college football.