2007 Wild Card Weekend Review

2-2 after one week, lets see if I can’t get this thing going and turn my .500 record into big winners all the way to the Super Bowl – this is how Week 1 churned out.

Saturday’s Games…

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

“I just don’t think the Redskins will pull the upset here. Many people forget that this is one of Seattle’s most talented teams. They pass the ball a ton, and do so very accurately and efficiently. Also, their defense is what really impresses me. With Patrick Kearney and Julian Peterson bringing pressure, Washington’s beat up offensive line will have to pull magic tricks to give Todd Collins enough time. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Hawks to win by 7-10 points in Seattle.” (Me) As it turns out, Kearney and company were just too much for the offensive line from Washington. Collins didn’t have the time he needs to make things happen, and thus he was intercepted a couple times, giving the Seahawks opportunity to put points on the board defensively. The Hawks are playing solid ball right now, the question is, can they keep it going?

Jacksonville Jaguars (Even) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

“The Steelers had a solid year, but fell off at the end, so much so that they couldn’t find a way to skip the Jaguars in Round 1. I like the Jaguars to win by 7-14 points in this one.” (Me) As it turns out, my prediction was right up until the last 12 minutes of the game. The Jaguars were looking dominant, but the Steelers stormed back to take the lead off of 19 straight 4th quarter points. They weren’t ready to give up, and they’d been there before. Still, it was their lack of running prowess and inability to hold onto the ball in the 1st half that ended the Steelers’ season. David Garrard didn’t have a great game, throwing two picks and almost single handily allowing the Steelers back in the game. Then, on 4th and 2, Garrard ran for 30 yards, setting the Jags up for their game winning field goal and their first playoff win in a long time.

Sunday’s Games…

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)

I was just dead-wrong about this one. I expected Eli to play terrible and he was solid. I expected the Bucs to come out hard with the home-field behind them, and really, they played the last 3 quarters as if they didn’t belong in the playoffs. This was my only big miss of the week, and a big part of it has to be my annoyance with the Giants during the season. However, New York is playing good football right now, and if they continue to hold onto the ball, they’ll go toe to toe with anyone in the NFC.

Tennessee Titans (+10) @ San Diego Chargers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)

“Using a tough defense and a heavy dosage of run plays, I like the Titan’s chances to finish within 10 of the Chargers in San Diego.” (Me) I ended up wrong about this one, but tell me you would bet the Chargers -10 against Tennessee again and I’ll call you crazy. San Diego was down 6-0 at half, and though I still thought they’d win, I was almost sure I was going to cover with my 10 points and the Titans. But, Tennessee was shut out, and the Chargers did just enough to cover with two touchdowns in the last 17 minutes. Games like this are tough, and I knew it was going to come down to the last few minutes, and spread-points. A tough loss for me, but I hope you can still see why I took the Titans, and why the value was with the away team. Sometimes you just lose.

Week 17 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Yet another week with a solid Elite Pick section, this time going up 12 units…. However, I didn’t do so well with my bottom half, but did enough to finish even over the final week.

Saturday’s Game…

New England (-13) @ N.Y. Giants: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

Each team played their best all game long. I never really saw that coming from the Giants. I hope it comes back to haunt them next week. I’ll tell you what though, they looked pretty damn good on Saturday Night, it’s probably the best they’ve played all season long. If they can run like that and cover like that, they will be a handful for any team in the NFC – that is my honest opinion – and I think they are the most overrated team in the whole 12 team playoff group.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

That extra point just did it for me. But this game was going to be close, and that’s why I didn’t break the bank with this bet. It was one of the 3 Free Picks I actually won, what can you do? The Eagles got a big game through the air from Donovan McNabb, and many wonder if that will be D’s last game in the city that booed him, loved him, and booed him again. Ah, good old Philadelphia. All I know is, this game was way to close to bet a bunch one, but I’ll take the small win when I can get it. I knew 5Dimes +9 spread was going to help me out.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

This game was close all the way down to the last few minutes. The Panthers were up 1 for most of the 4th quarter, and I thought I was going to walk away with a win despite Tampa resting what seemed to be their entire team for the entire freaking game. Carolina put a late touchdown over the goal line and they took the game by 8. There’s a reason I wasn’t a big fan of this game. The Panthers still proved to me that they can barely beat a team of back-ups, and the Bucs still proved that they could care less about the last couple games of the regular season. Blast!

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I flat out missed this game. I thought the Lions would play with a little more want-to in Green Bay, and they just stunk it up from the get go. The Lions were back to turning the ball over, and Brett Favre threw 2 early touchdowns and was 9 for 11 throwing the ball early. You could tell, he wanted to win, and he wanted to put on a show for the home fans. Does he know something we don’t? Favre’s 2 scores gave him 28 on the season, marking the 10th time he’s thrown for 27 or more touchdowns during his career. That’s magic. It was the first time he’s thrown more than 20 in his last 3 seasons. The Lions sucked again. Nice way to end your season, fellas.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

Shaun Alexander had his best day that I can remember, rushing 8 times for 31 yards and a touchdown… That’s almost 4 yards a carry – wow! The Hawks didn’t play much defense, as they chose to rest up at that position. Either way, this game came down to the last few plays, even having the Hawks recover an onside kick with just under a minute left. It was nullified by an off-sides penalty, and they didn’t get the next one. This marks one of the many times I’ve missed the Hawks games this season. The Falcons got a great game (4 TDs) from Chris Redman, as the whole offense played pretty well. Another close game that I just missed.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jets were up 7 for most of the game until Brodie Croyle stepped out of sucking for just long enough to toss a touchdown pass to Jeff Webb with under 3 minutes to play. At that point, I knew my covering dreams were over. Sure enough, the Jets came down and kicked a field goal in overtime, and I missed another close one. Dang it!

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Cardinals came out and obliterated the Rams early and often. Kurt Warner threw for 3 touchdowns, which gave him 27 on the season. The old man obviously still has some success in that old arm of his, 27 scores is no laughing number. Anyway, the Rams just didn’t come to play, rolling around like a team looking for a better draft pick. The loss gave them just 3 wins on the year, and a sure-fire #2 overall selection. So, instead of being tied with four other teams with a 4-12 mark, they get to have #2 all to themselves. Sounds like a brilliant reason to lose to me, if they were trying to or not. The win also got the Cardinals to 8-8, and yet another off-season of, “The Seahawks better look out, because the Cardinals are on the rise, they are everyone’s sleeper to find the playoffs next season… blah, blah, blah…” Maybe I’ll even write some of that stuff?

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers didn’t roll over, and the Browns didn’t need to win this game at all. But for some reason, 10-6 feels a lot better than 9-7, and the Browns rolled out with their starters and did enough damage to cover without much trouble (20-7). Derek Anderson did get hurt though, and while it might not be much, Brady Quinn looked good in relief. Will the Browns re-sign Anderson and pay starter money to two quarterbacks? It should be interesting during the off-season, Anderson had one heck of a season.

Elite Picks for Week 17 – Up 12 Units! – Another good week with my elite picks!

Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Baltimore came out with a lot more intensity than I expected, maybe they knew something I didn’t. Looking back on it, maybe they had heard their coach would be canned, and they were so damn excited they took it to the Steelers, who still had something to win. That being said, the Steelers are looking weak heading into the playoffs, and they don’t get a very kind opening game as Jacksonville comes to town.

NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Broncos came out and smacked the Vikes around a little bit, ending Minnesota’s playoff chances even before they were eliminated with the Redskins win over the Cowboys. Minnesota’s run game sputtered down the stretch, and everyone knows that their passing game wasn’t going to get them any wins in December.

NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish.” Apparently I was right about this one. The Chargers kept most of their starters in for the duration of the game, and even Norv Turner was quoted saying that if the game was on the line late, LT would be in until the end. They didn’t need him that late, as the Chargers took over in the 2nd half.

NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Saints are brutal, just like I thought, and Kyle Orton is a winner, just look at his numbers. The Bears need to get back to what won them games, and I get the feeling they’ll figure it out next year. They beat me here, those blasted Bears.

NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

One of my biggest bets of the year panned out, despite many worries late into the game. Even without Vince Young, the Titans had enough to take down the Colts backups by 6 points, covering the spread by a mere point and a half. A wins a win, but how do a bunch of backups put up that kind of a fight against a team that needs a win to get in?

NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.” This one seemed easy, and it ended up being exactly that. The Jaguars just weren’t trying to win, and despite a lot of points on the board from their backup offense, their 2nd string defense couldn’t stop a Texans team that looked motivated to find .500.

NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

“Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk.” The Bengals made it interesting, giving up 15 points in the 4th quarter, but they pulled through with relative ease, taking down Miami by 13 points.

NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

I get this funny feeling that the Cowboys will regret not trying harder to ouste the Redskins before the playoffs began. This Washington team has a lot of momentum coming into the playoffs, and if they can get past their first playoff test, they’ll really be a team to reckon with. This was a nice win.

Week 16 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 4-5 in my free picks for Week 16, but still finished well on the day, going 5-3 with my elite picks. I’m going to need to do this differently next year, selling my best picks and putting up my bottom half as free has been tough on my psyche – but anyway, this is where I won and loss on Sunday.

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Rams started off right, but couldn’t hold it in against the Steelers. I am officially brutal on Thursday Night games since my Thanks Giving Day wins… The Steelers are looking bad, and while I do expect them to win in Week 17, I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t win another game this season. With Willie Parker out, the pressure will be all over Big Ben.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Panthers made this a game while TO tumbled down with an ankle injury midway through the game. Dallas hasn’t impressed me much lately, and even though they won, I don’t think they’ll be taking any late season momentum with them into the playoffs. They do get a 1st round bye, however, and have plenty of talent to do damage in the 2nd Round after their bye.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t believe the Browns didn’t play tougher with the playoffs on the line. The Bengals came out and got as much revenge as they possibly could by almost completely knocking the Browns out of the playoffs as they spilt their season series with the Browns with a 19-14 win. Derek Anderson, who was great all year, threw 4 interceptions when his team needed him most. And I lost another free-pick. Blast.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

The Packers played absolutely terribly, and the Bears capitalized on every mistake that came their way. I think Chicago will regroup over the summer and come out ready to be a playoff team again in 2008-09. They have enough playmakers to make things work on defense, and offensively, they’re just a kick in the butt away from being decent.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

This was one of my best bets of the week, and it shows – it was one of my few wins in my free-picks section. The Jaguars just bulldogged the Jaguars to the tune of 49 points…. The Raiders milked 11 points from the Jaguars defense, and this was one of the most lopsided games of the season. Watch out for these Jaguars in the playoffs – not next week.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Giants played well and took down the Bills. I really can’t figure out the Giants, all I know is that they need to run the ball more and cut down on younger Manning’s throws, because he is inaccurate and inconsistent – he’s in-just about everything – to be honest. The Giants’ defense has been the one saving grace for this team all season long.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts put up 38 points over the first 3 quarters, and honestly, the Texans just came to Indiana on the wrong day. Indy was on fire in the first half, actually putting up 21 in the 2nd quarter alone. Peyton looks to be getting his touch back, something the Colts will desperately need if they are to win just one playoff game this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions didn’t look good, but they won by 5, which if you add the two and carry the decimal three times, is just enough to make me a winner. ON this tough weekend, I needed anything I could get. I got a win. I still hate Mike Martz. He’ll be somewhere else in 2008, good thing for Roy Williams fans, because Martz decided he didn’t even want to use the guy after the first 5 weeks.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?): win

The Hawks finally dominanted, and I would have taken this spread easily. The Ravens are terrible, decent, then terrible again. I don’t care what the Ravens’ brass continues to say about coach Billick – that guy will be looking for a new job no later than the first 4 games of next season, maybe even this year.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers rubbed it in a little bit against the Broncos, so expect fireworks from these two teams next season. Champ Bailey talked some mess about Phillip Rivers after the game, and it’s not like that’s hard, the kid from NC State is throwing swollen marshmallow ducklings all over the field lately. The Broncos still couldn’t do much as LT and his backups shredded a piss-poor defense from Denver.

Week 15 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I don’t want to talk about it…

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

How bad are the Broncos? On Thursday, they were horrendous.

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad?” Let me replace my original answer to this question “I don’t think so” with “yes, and actually, they are even worse than this bad, they are brutal.”

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I’m going to blame this game on the snow. 8-0, it was close until the last minute, and obviously, the Bills always had a chance, they just couldn’t stop making snow angels during key plays – damn kids.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Can I blame this one on the snow? I felt smart when I saw the score nearing halftime in this one. Then I felt dumb when I saw the final tally.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.” Bingo – it’s nice to win one or two here and there.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I don’t think the Jets are good enough to finish anywhere close to the Patriots if Tom Brady doesn’t have one of his worst football games I can remember. He was wild, his timing was off, and he didn’t throw a touchdown pass. After Kellen Clemens threw a pick-6 with his first pass, I thought this was going to be one of those. I was wrong, tricked all the way, and the Pats stayed undefeated but lost ATS again.

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away fa”vorite here, and I don’t like it all that much.” The Colts just didn’t show up. Their running game was bad, and there’s no excuse for that against the Raiders, a team that has been brutal against the run. I didn’t like this game much to start, and that was because I didn’t know if the Colts would show for this game. I’ll pick against them next week.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Thank you Brian Westbrook for being too smart for my fantasy team to win. Down on the half yard line, lost in a tie-breaker. Jerk. At least I won this game, that’s always a nice thing.

Week 14 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 3-4 for my free picks this week, as there were many a tough games for me. I did however, go 6-3 with my elite picks, which put me just two games over .500 on the week. I have some work to do in these next three weeks, but I have done well in the final half of the season in the 3 years prior to this, so get ready for some wins. Here’s where I went wrong on Sunday, and Thursday… Got Monday right on the dot, though!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

“Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post.” This was a weird game. Both quarterbacks went down early, and the Bears abandoned their offense which seemed weird, because it’s not like Rex was the catalyst or anything. The Redskins did just enough, in a gross fest, as the Bears just couldn’t get into the end zone.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5) : win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

There wasn’t much reason to go for the Lions here, everything working against them, and in the end, although they convered easily, they gave up a late touchdown and lost a game they very well should have won against the best team in the NFC. Craziness, but I’ll take the win.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7): win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

“My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is, if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack.” Two guys, Jackson and Lynch, each rushed for over 100 yards, and the Bills handed the Dolphins their 13th loss of the season. Yep, 3 more to go to be “that” team. Fantastic!

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

The Giants are the worst team heading into the playoffs, and I still can’t wait for them to tumble in Round 1 by about a million points to whomever they play… (Maybe not the Hawks) – Anyway, they still found a way to ugly themselves to a win, which just about made me hurl. Plaxico somehow caught a couple high and outside passes from Elly Manning, yes, pronounced L-E, and took one to the house. The Giants won, but I still think they suck. Believe me when I say, just wait and see.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

This game was a lot closer than many people imagined, but the Jets gave up a late touchdown that iced it, seems like the story of their season. Well, they’ve gotten killed a lot too. More importantly, how about those playoff bound Brownies? Oh, you betcha, they’ll be doing their best to get in, and if they can beat bad teams, they’ll sneak right on in without much of a sweat. Good win for Cleveland, their defense looked better on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

“I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure.” I warned you, and while I am definitely taking credit for this loss, hopefully you either faded my “don’t pick well on the Hawks’ games” selection, or just left it alone all together. I don’t know what it is, maybe it’s the fact that Shaunna kills me, or that I live close to these guys, or that I always expect too much until they let me down – either way, I missed this one again, and the Hawks came out and won the division early, and split the season series with the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons: win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

Gross game – easy win for me that brought me over .500 with my free/pay picks combined, so that’s nice. I fell just short of .500 with my 7 free selections, but they are my low-tier plays, and you can’t win them all. I hope I can pull of a blockbuster undefeated week here in Week 15, with some crazy spreads coming out already. Check in later in the week for my Free and Elite plays.

Week 13 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Winnie left me waiting in the car and took my best buddy out for a good time… I sat in my car and listened to the football games break my heart. Here is how I lost 5 different games with my free picks. My elite picks brought me back close to .500 by going 5-3, but it was still a tough week for Ole Lucky Lester.

Thursday’s Game…

Green Bay Packers (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

Close call, and I’d like to say that Brett Favre’s absence killed the Packers, but I can’t even buy that. Aaron Rodgers came in rolling, and played well enough if the Packers had a chance at all. Truth be told, Ryan Grant had a hell of a game, and TO gave a touchdown away, literally. So I lost this game, but deservedly so. Tough week, not much luck, started with a Thursday Night loss.

Sunday’s Games…

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 9:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“I think the Falcons are just about done winning games this season, and the Rams just started. Despite losing last week at home to Seattle, St. Louis played a pretty solid game, and still has one of the best offensive units in the game when healthy… I’m sure the public will be riding the Rams in this one, but I honestly think they’ll win by more than a touchdown.” (Me) This picked just seemed too easy, and in the end it definitely was. Not much to say but, I’d be surprised if the Falcons won another game this season, and I think the Rams will win at least two more in the next 4 weeks.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (-5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Terrible, ridiculous, absurd I’m so old I forgot the rules playcalling lost this game for the Redskins, but I lost my bet when Washington decided to stumble about anxiously down the stretch. I don’t get why they didn’t keep moving the ball and trying to score, this old school way of playing football just doesn’t fit the now in the NFL. Gibbs’ time has passed as an NFL coach, as much as I like the guy. I’m just flat out tired of watching the Redskins outplay their opponents for much of the game, only to droop late in each contest and fail. The Skins were up 5 late into the 4th, but tumbled by 1 as a last second field goal ended their day.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I guess I was wrong about the Lions, and their solid rushing defense. This team has hit rock bottom, and I don’t know how they can turn it around with Dallas getting the nod next week. Bring on Romo and TO? Right, not quite the team you like to see if you need a win to turn your season around.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Titans just came out and pounded the ball. Also, Vince Young was tested, and he passed with flying colors. The Texans dared him to throw by dialing up single coverage on the outside, and Young had one of his better passing days in his young NFL career. I’m not sure if the Titans will do much better than 8-8 this season, but they’ll be pretty darn good next season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

This game was closer than the final score insisted, but I needed a win, and I got one. The field was a mess, and I made a nice little profit on the under at the last minute. I noticed the rain in the Philly game and went right for the computer to place a new bet on the under. It came close, but some solid defense and some streaky quarterbacking kept the game well under the total, and I got the W there as well.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I would have pushed had Brian Westbrook cut in bounds and scored on that last minute punt return instead of running out of bounds, but ifs and buts are useless and are the type of excuses that annoy everyone. The bottom line is, the Hawks defense came to play on the road, something they rarely do. Also, even though Shaunna Alexander is just about my least favorite player this side of Drew Bledsoe, he actually rand down hill a few times in the second half, and that was enough to keep the Hawks on their winning streak. They have the talent to do damage; now if they can just keep their focus. This was a great game, but it was lost by A.J. Feeley and his love for interceptions.

Monday Night Football Game

New England Patriots (-20) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I hate to say it, but the Patriots should have lost this game. My mommy always told me, “You know, those games are all fixed. There’s more important people than those players, and they know the right people, have enough influence, and are big enough asses to decide who wins and who loses.” Aside from crying, and telling her she was wrong, I’ve still never agreed that games are won and lost because rich guys pay off poor guys, but this game could definitely cause a stir amongst those who believe the other way. Honestly, I just think great teams often get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the closest of plays, and while that will always piss someone off, it’s just the way it is. Mike Jordan got the calls, Larry Bird did as well – Joe Montana and the 49ers were the angels of the NFL back in the day, and Wayne Gretzky did what he wanted when he laced up the skates. I hate to say it, but that’s just the way it is. Right now, I’m officially off the Patriots picking train, and back to actually capping their games.

Week 14 College Football Picks Review: 2007

I needed some help in Week 14 after a couple stinkers, and I think I got just that! 4-1! On to the Bowls!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 14

Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5) @ Boston College Eagles: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Hokies were the better team for the second straight game, and this time they came out of the game with a big win. To think, if they didn’t crumble in the last 4 minutes last time they played BC, they would be playing for the National Championship. I hate the BCS, by the way.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Central Florida Knights (-7.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Boy, this was one of the easier picks of the week. Check out my free picks section to see how well I called this game. On the freaking button.

Army Black Knights @ Navy Midshipmen (-14): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

While this game was closer than I thought, it was my biggest bet of the week, and I sure am glad it won big for me. I needed the Midshipmen to come out and run all over the Knights, but Army was up to the challenge. However, a couple tough calls and some “fortunate turnovers” (fortunate for me) helped me get a huge win, and a nice 4-1 mark on my last week of the regular season.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+7.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Well, my lone loss came in a game where I underestimated the Wolfpack’s talent. This was a killing, as the Bulldogs never stood a chance. They lacked the want to win all year long, losing too many close games, but in the end, they came out and put a hurting on the Bulldogs.

Oregon State Beavers (pk) @ Oregon Ducks: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Vegas picked this well, but in the 2nd OT, the stronger team took the Cival War, and could very well end up in a better Bowl situation than their Green instate enemies.

Free College Football Picks Week 14 – 2007

After a tough go around in Week 13, I’m looking for a perfect final week of the College Football pre-bowl season. Enjoy the picks, and make that money! Some conference championships, and the chance to play for all the marbles. Huevos grande!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 14

Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5) @ Boston College Eagles:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Last time around, the Eagles escaped Virginia Tech by the hair on Matt Ryan’s chinny chin, chin. This time, they won’t be so lucky. The Hokies have to be irked that they somehow crumbled in the final few minutes to lose a game on a deep Matt Ryan touchdown pass to his running back across his body on the opposite side of the field. Virginia Tech dominated that game, and they weren’t even playing as well as they are now. Sean Glennon has been playing inspired football, and the Tech defense is right on cue. Amazingly, these two ACC teams are almost identical. Both are 10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS. 6-1 at home, 4-1 on the road, each team scores 29 a game, and both are 6-5 O/U on the season. Virginia Tech allows less points per game defensively, and that should give them the nod in this game.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Central Florida Knights (-7.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

This Conference USA Championship shouldn’t have much impact on any big Bowl games, but the Central Florida Knights and Tulsa Golden Hurricane are two teams that have put together an impressive conference run and second half of the season. One thing that is difficult about this game; it’s always hard to beat a good team twice in a season. But I think Central will walk away with this win. Both teams have 5 game winning streaks (CF is on a 6 game streak) and both have put up big points along the way. The difference is, Central Florida is winning big and Tulsa has been eeking out close games. Last time these two teams played, Central dominated the game by smashing a rushing attack right down the throats of Tulsa’s defense. The Knights rushed for 170 more yards than the Hurricane. I like that trend to continue in the C-USA finale.

Army Black Knights @ Navy Midshipmen (-14):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Two touchdowns is a lot in a rivalry game, but historically, the Midshipmen are used to embarrassing Army’s Black Knights. Last year, the final score was just 26-14, as Army covered the 19 point spread in a Navy win. But in the few years prior to that, this game has been a joke. Navy outscored Army by at least 19 points in every single game from 2002 – 2005. And most of them haven’t been that close. This season, Army couldn’t stop the run if their lives depended on it, as they’ve been outrushed by 100+ yards in 6 of the last 10 games, and they’ve been outrushed by nearly 1,200 yards over the last 6 games. On the other hand, the Midshipmen have been a rushing dynamo, outrushing every team they’ve gone up against in the last 10 contests. They’ve had 195 more rushing yards than their opponents in 5 games this season. They may not pass much, but against Army, they won’t have to. Easy game to call.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+7.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Wolfpack have made a living out of losing close games this season. They lost to San Jose State 24-27 last week. A week before that it was 26-28 against undefeated Hawaii. Earlier in the year it was a 67-69 overtime loss to a very good Boise State team. Fresno State beat them 41-49. And they lost ot Northwestern 31-36. Their only bad loss came to Nebraska, and that was before the Cornhuskers started to suck. Louisiana Tech has had a tough loss or two as well, including a one point overtime loss to Hawaii earlier in the season. But lately, they’ve been piling up wins (3 of their last 4) and they have a chance to get Bowl eligible against Nevada. If anything, that will keep this game close, and taking a fairly equal dog with just over a touchdown, I like my chances.

Oregon State Beavers (pk) @ Oregon Ducks:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Ducks were Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart. Now they are trying to rely squarely on Stewarts shoulders with Dixon and Dixon’s backup out for this rivalry game against the Beavers. Honestly, the Ducks defense is bad, and offensively they don’t have the confidence at quarterback nor the speed and athleticism to keep defenses honest. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after starting the season slowly. They were expected to compete at the top of the Pac 10 this season before too many road bumps early in the year. I really like their stud running back, Yevenson Bernard. That guy is a beast that keeps on rolling along, and I think he’ll have a huge game against a defense that really doesn’t tackle all that well. Oregon’s on the line, and the Beavers should come out on top on the road. However, something to be aware of, the home team has won each of the last 10 meetings between these programs. But that’s history, and the streak has to end some time.

Week 12 NFL Picks Review: 2007

An interesting week, overall I didn’t do too shabby (4-6 with my free picks – 5-3 with my elite picks) but I had a tough Sunday in my Free Picks category, and I know that hurt some of my trusty readers, but such is the way it goes sometimes. I hope you capitalized on my two Thanks Giving day wins – and sorry for the tough free picks this week. Here’s where it went bad…

Sunday’s Games

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: SBG Global)

I may have had the loss in this one, but I capped this game perfectly. The Broncos had given up two kick returns for touchdowns, and they were still up 14 with less than 7 minutes to go… And they end up losing by a field goal in overtime… Absurd. You take your losses when they come, but the games like this hurt a little more than those you just straight missed.

Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I missed this one. I expected a big day for the Titans after they crumbled like stale sourdough bread against Denver last week. Well, the crumbling continued, and the Bengals, of all teams, were there to feed the ducks. I lost this one bad.

Minnesota Vikings (+8) @ New York Giants: win
(Line: Thursday, 11:50pm EST: 5Dimes)

“I think the Vikings powerful rushing attack will finally give other teams the recipe to make the Giants defensive front full of defensive end speed rushers suffer. Call it hopeful thinking, but the Giants haven’t played well enough to be 8 point favorites over anybody.” Maybe this 42-17 loss will allow the rest of the football world to see who the Giants really are. They are a pass rushing defense with a mediocre passing game, and that’s about it.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are one of the best teams in football, and I have a feeling they are going to make a push at the Colts in the AFC South. They may not have the playoff recipe for success, but they’ll continue to handle teams during the rest of the regular season, and I’ll be here capitalizing on it.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Raiders win! The Raiders win! And you can’t blame this game on the Chiefs injured rushing attack, because rookie Kolby Smith put in work. The Chiefs sucked defensively against the run, and that allowed Justin Fargas to drop elbows on the end zone, getting in there twice, and putting up big yardage.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (-22): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“I had to say it out loud in front of the mirror 3 times, but I will not bet against the Patriots. I’ve never wanted to go the other way more than I do right now, 22 points is absurd – I can never remember a spread being this high in my entire NFL capping career. But then again, this game throws up some interesting questions for me. I either think the Eagles will get absolutely destroyed, making the spread look realistic, or play the Patriots down to the last snap, losing or winning a final play-type thing.” (Like I said, I have never wanted to go against the Pats more, but there were too many questions for me. The Eagles ended up making the 2nd part of my prophecy true, but unfortunately I put my pick on the first half. I definitely warned you to stay off this game, and it was a tough one, for a second there I thought the Pats would actually lose a game. Tough

Monday Night Football Game

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-16): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

It’s tough to put my lines out early, and expect the weather just not to be an issue. If I were picking this game, or laying a bet later in the week, I would have surely bet the under and taken the Dolphins, because that field was a mess. I thought the Steelers could easily shut out the Fins, and that did happen. However, I didn’t expect the lowest scoring game of all time, and that is also what happened. Tough call, and damn the weather man!

Week 13 College Football Picks Review: 2007

3-2 with my free picks – 0-5 with my free dogs – and 3-2 with my elite picks… Another tough week in college…

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks Review

Free Picks: Week 13

Virginia Tech Hokies (-3.5) @ Virginia Cavaliers: win
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

33-21, the Hokies have a spot in the ACC Championship game, and they could very well find themselves in a nice BCS Bowl game at season’s end.

Tulane Green Wave @ East Carolina Pirates (-12): win
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

35-12, and Tulane scored half their points in the final quarter, already down huge. The Pirates were just the way better team, and that’s all there is to it.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats (-3): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

It came down to the 3rd overtime, and Tennessee got it done when it counted the most .I thought I had this game when it went into the extra session, but as it turned out , my luck wasn’t with my on Saturday.

Texas El Paso Minors @ Central Florida Knights (-19): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Central Florida Knights waited too long to dominate this game, winning by just 16 after smacking UTEP around in the 4th quarter. I lose yet another game by a field goal. Blast!

Florida Atlantic Owls (-11.5) @Florida International Golden Panthers: win
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The FAU Owls had an easy time of it on Saturday. They were up 35-3 at half, and while the 4th quarter produced 40 total points and killed under bettors everywhere, it wasn’t enough to oust me, as the Owls rolled winning by 32 points in this instate rivalry game.

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Not a day for the dogs – early close game tough luck had me reeling, and then the Mounties just destroyed the Huskies on way to an o-for with my 5 dogs…

Boise State Broncos (+3.5) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: (loss)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: BetEd)

Wyoming Cowboys (+3) @ Colorado State Rams: (loss)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Utah Utes (+4.5) @ BYU Cougars: (loss)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Connecticut Huskies (+17.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (loss)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

USC Trojans @ Arizona State Sun Devils (+3): (Thanks Giving Thursday) (loss)
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Who2BetOn NCAA College Football Pay Picks – Week 13 Lucky Lester

Missouri Tigers @ Kansas Jayhawks (-1.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 11:55pm EST: Bodog)

Cincinnati Bearcats (-19.5) @ Syracuse Orange: win
(Line: Thursday, 11:55pm EST: betED)

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-5.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3): win
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Florida State Seminoles @ Florida Gators (-13.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)