Tag Archives: NCAA Week 13 Preview

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) Pick: I got this game at 7, and I must say that’s a lot sexier than 7.5. but even at the number you’re getting today. 7.5, the Jackets look like a solid bet to me. I see that Georgia makes their home in the famous SEC, the home of Champions and bullies and the greatest college football teams to ever play the game, not to mention the single most complete college football leader in the storied history of the sport, one Tim Tebow – but I still like the Techies’ chances. So, SEC, you’ve got nothing on me!

This Georgia Team got beat by Kentucky last week, at home no less. They got whipped by all the top ranked teams they’ve played, even Tennessee handed them a 45-19 loss. The Yellow Jackets have only had trouble with teams that can really throw the ball or are just flat out good. They lost to Miami when Jacory Harris was lighting the world on fire, they won by just 5 over Florida State as Casey Ponder chewed up their secondary, and Wake Forrest gave them trouble as Riley Skinner found his game. But Georgia doesn’t have that. Sure, they have some high yardage numbers, and Joe Cox has thrown 21 touchdowns, but the Bulldogs are hardly an elite passing team.

Georgia also gets smoked when they get out-rushed. Florida out-rushed them. Tennessee out-rused them, and so did LSU – all teams beat and covered against the Bulldogs. In fact, the only game they won while getting out-rushed was against South Carolina, by 7 yards, and even then the Gamecocks covered the spread.

Yeah, I like one of the best rushing attacks in college football – the Yellow Jackets by a touchdown.

Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Free Football Pick

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Florida State Seminoles (+23) @ Florida Gators Free Football Pick: Listen, I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t hear about Christian Ponder’s absense until much to late, and now it all makes sense. I go through a lot of college football (and pro football) games, among other sports, and every once in a while I’ll miss a big huge thing like Christian Ponder is out for the season, and was out last game as well, a game where back-up QB E.J. Manuel threw 3 interceptions to the Maryland Terrapins. Yeah, tough deal. But that being said, I still think the Seminoles have a chance. I wouldn’t put much on this line, without their leader at Q, times could go south quick for the Seminoles – but the Gators haven’t been the blow-out type this season, and 23 points is a lot.

Florida State has given up a ton of points, no doubt, but without their offense slanging the ball all over the field, I think this thing slows down a little bit (plus Florida likes to control the ball) and a few less points get scored because of it. I also know that the Gators have three wins by 24 points or more this season, Kentucky, Troy, and Florida International – big whoop.

FSU hasn’t had a great year, and even with great numbers for their QB, they’ve just barely gotten over .500 – but they have the athletes to compete with anyone, and even without Ponder, I think they are a decent bet at the +24.5 they are at most books right now.

Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction

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Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction: I don’t know what Vegas sees in this game, and like always, that kind of worries me. I’ve been right before, and I’ve been wrong, but for some reason the times I’ve been wrong always sit with me a little longer. Maybe it’s because when I’m right, I knew I was right, and when I’m wrong, shoot, I knew I was right and somewhere along the line I went and got tricked. I don’t think that’s happening this time, but shoot, I never do. Here’s why I like the Wildcats to do damage to the Sun Devils.

Arizona State has beaten the Wildcats 3 of the last 4 meetings, but listen, the Wildcats just became a solid team last season – they’re still pretty good, and ASU still isn’t. I’m not letting recent history sway me away from the right pick here, and since Arizona’s good team beat the Sun Devils last year, I’m feeling pretty good about it.

What else, Arizona State is ridden with “out for season”, “out indefinitely”, “questionables” and “probables” while the Wildcats only have two recent injuries, and both guys are questionable to play this Saturday – against their rival, I think they will. The Sun Devils have also lost each of their last 5 and their only Pac-10 wins come against the Washington schools – and lets be honest – they hardly count.

Arizona has had a good year, they’ve only lost 4 games and all were close. They can run the ball and play good defense. I don’t think the Sun Devils put up much of a fight.

Clemson Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks NCAA Pick

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Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) NCAA Pick: Clemson has owned the Gamecocks over the last 7 years, winning 6 of their last 7 meetings, and covering 6 of the last 8 times these two have played. Whether it’s been on the road or at home, the Tigers have flexed their in-state muscle.

But I think this game will be different. It’s not what the Gamecocks have done, but who they’ve played – they are ready for a game against the Tigers. Over the last five weeks of games the Gamecocks have played Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Now Vandy might not have much to offer, and Tennessee hasn’t won but a handful of games, but those other three are legit, and two of those are probably the best two teams in the Nation. Clemson has one hell of a defensive line, and that has given opposing offenses trouble all year long, but I know South Carolina has seen that kind of defensive front a couple times this year, and that makes me think they’ll be ready for the Tigers.

Getting three points at home is another plus for me here. Getting two weeks to prepare for Clemson is just another bonus. One might say that Clemson finally getting their act together and winning 6 straight coming in is a sign of trouble for South Carolina – but I’d have it no other way. Winning streaks end – and I’m willing to take a South Carolina team that went toe-to-toe with Florida two weeks ago, even though they’ve lost 4 of their 5. They are 5-1 at home, and obviously play their best football there.

Washington State Cougars vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

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Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-24) Free Pick: Listen, I have a hard time giving the Huskies 24 points, against almost anyone, but not so much the worst team in college football. Maybe I’m being a little hard on the Cougars from Washington State, I mean, I know a couple kids on the team, and they are good guys, they just can’t compete with the rest of the Pac-10. I think they might have 3 wins if they played in the Western South Pacific Poison Ivy League – but they haven’t proven they can play with anyone in the Pac-10. And I can’t think that this huge rivalry game, the famous Apple Cup, will bring them all the way from doormat to competitive team.

But they give up 39.3 points per game, not because they wouldn’t give up more, but because the game is only so long, and when teams rarely score in the 4th quarter because they are just trying to finish the game, it’s hard to score much more than 40. The Cougars have given up at least 40 points in their last 5 games. I’ve hear of high school teams getting done in like that, but a Pac-10 team? Here’s the thing, the Cougars might be petitioning to get into that WSPPIL that I was talking about earlier, are they really Pac-10-ish? Every other team in the league is competitive – the closest Pac-10 game the Cougars have played was against Arizona State – they lost by just 13 with a late 4th quarter score – amazing game for them.

I know the Cougars have won 4 of their last 5, and are currently on their longest winning streak over the Huskies(2 games), and I know the Huskies have lost each of thier last 4 games, getting blown out in two, but at least they’ve competed all year long. They’ve blown games on the field, they’ve blown games on the sidelines, but they’ve played and hung in against some good teams, and I think they blow out the Cougars – somewhere in the 42-13 range – and that’s enough for a cover. The Dawgs win and they win BIG!

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview

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Nevada Wolf Pack (+12) @ Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview: As I imagined, this line has moved in my favor. You can get the Wolf Pack at +14, and those extra two points could be very big.

Am I saying that the Wolf Pack are going to come in and down the Broncos perfect season? Are they going to clear up the BCS small school picture with a single HUGE upset over Boise State in Boise? In Boise? Boy, that’s tougher to call, but in a game that is often close (or at least has been over the last 2 seasons) I think the Wolf Pack have one hell of a chance to put a wrinkle in time.

First of all, let me give some credit to the Broncos. They are one hell of a team, and they can really move with any team in the Nation on both sides of the ball. They showed early in the season what they can do to an elite rushing attack like Oregon, and they’ve proved all season long that they know how to win, even when things don’t go there way. Boise can run the ball – they’ve out-rushed all but two opponents all season long, and they have one of the most accurate and efficient passers in all of college football, the stud lefty Kellen Moore. Moore has 33 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, and will almost certainly eclipse the 3000 yard mark in this game. Boise is grand.

But Nevada is coming in on one heck of a run. They’ve won 8 straight, covered six of those games, and out-rushed their opponents in every game, by 200 or more yards in 6 games. They can really run the ball. They have a great quarterback to their own right, a rushing and throwing elite athlete in Colin Kaepernick. Nevada has been getting closer and closer, and I think they give the Broncos a game in Boise.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Louisville Cardinals Free Pick

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Louisville Cardinals Free Pick: Tom Savage, the Rutgers Knights’ starting quarterback, easily had his worst performance of his career – but I’m not willing to think that’s going to be his new norm. The kid has all the intangibles to lead his team to victory on any given day, as he’s shown by winning all but two of the games he has started in his young career. He had 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions while completing around 60% of his passes prior to last game’s stinker against Syracuse. I first and foremost like him to bounce back.

Louisville isn’t good, not even mediocre. They have beaten just 4 teams this year, all of those teams unimpressive. They’ve played a couple close games, but without the talent and confidence, the Cardinals have really taken a hit this season. One thing they have going for themselves is a basically blank injury list. But if nobody’s injured on a team that has been pretty nonexistent all year long, is that a good thing? Maybe if the back-ups got a little taste they would show something?

The short of it is this, usually, when solid teams play their worst game of the season, they come back the next time out and play well. This is the boat that Rutgers is in, coming off a stinker against Syracuse, the Knights should be ready to win. That’s sports. That’s just the way it usually is.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick

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Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) @ Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick: Just as I imagined, this spread moved in my favor – but I’m thinking I don’t need those extra points – though 20 would be nice (and the spread is currently at 20.5 in 90% of the sports books) I just see this game being closer. The Illini have some elite players, and they were certainly expected to perform better than they did this season, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they have the athletes to make this a game.

Illinois has covered in three of their last four games, winning two of their last 3. They’ve played their best football of the season over the last 4 games, and Juice Williams and company are finally getting on track. A little late for a post season performance, sure, but this game is Illinois’ season, and it would put a nice finishing touch on a tough season if they could hand the Bearcats their first loss of the season.

Cincinnati has played quite a few close games lately. Against West Virginia, Connecticut, and Fresno State, they finished on top by a single score or less. They still have a quarterback dilemma (thought two stud quarterbacks seems like a good problem to have) and the questions surrounding who is going to play and when might still be sitting around for this solid team.

The Bearcats have a lot to look forward too, and sometimes, often times, teams in that situation get caught looking forward. If Illinois can hold the ball, keep it in their hands with some big conversions, I think they keep this game very close.

Texas Longhorns vs Texas A&M Aggies Week 13 Free Pick

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Texas Longhorns (-22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies Week 13 Free Pick: Like I said in my newsletter, Texas has won their last 5 games by at least 25 points. Why not make it 6?” Listen, there are lots of reason, historical reasons, rivalry reasons, to like the Aggies here, and so far the spread has resembled that sediment. The spread has shot down a very important 1.5 points since I made my selection, all the way down to 21, a nice 3-touchdown number. That scares me a little, the books obviously wanted some more money coming in on the road favorites – but I can’t be worried too much about what the books want.

Lets look at some reasons why my pick is scary. One – this spread has rarely been this big, only twice in the last ten seasons. Two – it’s a rivalry game. It may be a rivalry recently dominated by the Longhorns, but 7 of the last 10 doesn’t look as good when you see that the Aggies have upset Texas twice in the last three seasons. Also, the Aggies covered three straight going into last years’ game.

But that’s history, maybe not ancient history, but history nonetheless. The Longhorns probably haven’t played many games up to their par this season, but don’t look past their lat 5 wins by at least 27 points. Sure, they started off the season slow in terms of dominant wins, but five in a row in the high twenties or more? I have to like their chances to continue the run. Plus, the Aggies have been destroyed by “good” teams, OK State, Arkansas, and Oklahoma (none as good as Texas) all won their games by 27+ points over the Aggies. The Longhorns shall be #4.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick, Preview

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Pittsburgh Panthers (-1) @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick, Preview: This is another game that scares me a little bit. The speed of the Mountaineers’ offense could give the Panthers defense a few fits, and this is a bit of a trap game for the Panthers, they just beat up on the Irish a couple weeks ago, and West Virginia is coming off a close loss to #5 Cincinnati – but not much about what the Mounties have done excites me.

West Virginia has beaten Connecticut – yep, that’s their best win. Their schedule wasn’t flashy, they didn’t have many tough match-ups on there, but Cincinnati, Auburn, and Connecticut are the 3 I would rank above the others – and they lost two of those games. And honestly, I’m giving their win over Connecticut up for what it was, a very tough-luck stretch for the Huskies.

The Mountaineers’ scoring is down, their defense has lost some of the athletes that helped them dominate the Big East. I think Pittsburgh has too much power for the Mountaineers. Up front, West Virginia can be moved around. The Panthers have a strong overall attack that opposing defenses can’t cheat against. I think that puts a mediocre Mountaineers team in tough spot this weekend.

Pittsburgh is undefeated against the Big East, and they are 4-2 ATS in those games. They find a way to win, and while the betting value isn’t on them in this one, I’m going against value and for the team that knows how to win.