Tag Archives: NCAA Bowl Predictions

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide: BCS National Championship Pick

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As I said in my newsletter, Alabama is the best college football team in the Nation. Defensively they look superior to every other team, and offensively they often manhandle opposing defenses, control the clock, and have shown the ability to beat the snot out of opponents as well as win ugly. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win this game.

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A month of no games can play tricks on a team, and that’s one of the reasons why this ridiculous bowl stuff makes everything a little more interesting. For an entire month, the Texas Longhorns have been hearing people talk about how they don’t have a chance against the best team in the SEC. They’ve heard about Heisman winner Mark Ingram and the powerful running game. They’ve heard about the defense with a handful of future NFL players. Yes, for one month, they’ve got to hear all the reasons they should lose. And it’s amazing how motivational that can be for a team that didn’t lose a single game all season long.

But despite that motivational push, it’s tough for me to go against Alabama here. Bowl games are special, and you never know, but the Tide look too tough in areas I think are most important. They are as tough as nails up front of offense and all over the field defensively. They allowed just 11 points per game, allowed 7 or less in 6 contests, and held normally powerful offenses like Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss to fewer than two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide are certainly battle tested. They easily ran throw what many people thought was the very best team in the Nation when they blistered Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship game.

Texas struggled down the stretch, barely beating Texas A&M in a game where the Longhorns allowed 39 points (nearly twice as much as the Crimson Tide ever allowed in a single game this season) and needed a long last second field goal to beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Anything can happen in Bowl games, but if both these teams play to their potential, I think the Tide win easily. So I’ll take Alabama to cover the spread.

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)

Rose Bowl Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks

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It’s tough for me because this game is often a bit of a let down. Usually, the Pac-10 school is a heavy home team favorite, as the game is always played in Pac-10 country, and these are often two conferences that aren’t nearly as strong as their “big conference” hype insists. I mean, when Boise State beats the crap out of the top team in the Pac 10 and yet still can’t get close to a title shot, that should give you an idea of the conference strength. And then you have the Big 10, and while Ohio State is definitely the class of that conference, the 4th place team in the Pac 10 beat the Buckeyes in Ohio. And while the Buckeyes made easy work of just about everyone outside of their loss (Purdue) and their overtime win against Iowa – but the Big 10 isn’t as good as the WAC this year, in fact I don’t know if it’s close. I can think of 10 small college teams that would have finished Top 3 in the Big 10. The Big 10 is three more bowl losses away from being relegated a Division 1-AA program, or sub-division, or whatever…

When it comes down to it, I don’t think the Buckeyes can score with Oregon. The Ducks are going to out-rush the Buckeyes, and that’s not good for Ohio State – they have only one win when that happens.

Oregon played awesome offensively this season, scoring more than 40 points in 6 of their last 8 games – Ohio State scored 40+ one time, against New Mexico State. Yep.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks (-3.5)

Bowling Green Falcons vs Idaho Vandals: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

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These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!

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Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.

Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.

Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)

Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers: Champs Sports Bowl

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Right off the bat the Hurricanes come in with a big home-field advantage, as this game is being played in their home state, Orlando, against a Big 10 school from the Midwest. The Hurricanes have a heap of top-flight speedy athletes, consistently prepare well with long breaks, and have played well at home all season long. Wisconsin probably doesn’t have the speed they’ll need to compete with Miami, plus they’ve covered on the road only twice all season long, at Minnesota and against at Hawaii. That doesn’t really win me over on the Badgers.

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One thing Wisconsin has done is out-rush every single one of their last 10 opponents, but that hasn’t really meant victory for them. They’ve lost 3 of their last 7 games, and haven’t beat a “good” team yet this year. Every time they had a chance to prove their worth, they’ve fallen to the Big 10’s top teams, losing to Iowa and Ohio State – they didn’t play Penn State, and they also lost to Northwestern.

Miami has also struggled against top-tier teams, losing to Clemson, North Carolina, and virginia Tech. They did beat Oklahoma and Georgia Tech earlier in the season, also smacking around a decent South Florida team to end the year.

Both teams are 9-3 SU this season, and both have been much better at home than on the road. That should be key in this one as I’ll take Miami playing in Orlando.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Wisconsin Badgers:

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction

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UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction: Right off the bat, more of the public bet is going to be on the Bruins because they are UCLA, a big college name from a big college conference. But if you start to look at the reality of bowl games, the struggles the Pac 10 have had thus far, and how small college schools come out trying to prove their worth in the face of those big schools, the 57% public bet on UCLA is probably unfounded.

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First of all, the 6-6 Bruins won three games to start their season, a win over Tennessee and Kansas State both look solid now, but what have they done in the last 9 games? They’ve beaten Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State – they lost to everyone else. Basically, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of the season. Those three wins to get them bowl eligible came against the very bottom of the Pac-10, well, the bottom not counting themselves.

Temple comes in with their most successful regular season in 30 years, going 9-3 and 8-3 ATS. This is their first bowl game in three decades. They were 4-2 SU on the road, 5-1 ATS. The Owls are committed to a run-heavy scheme, as they’ve out-rushed 9 of their last 10 opponents, and really lean on that run-game. In thier last 10 games, the UCLA Bruins have been out-rushed 6 times. In those 6 games, they’ve lost 5 – their only win was a 24-23 win over Washington in a game the Huskies gave away.

Names and mascots aside, you have to like Temple in this one.

UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls (+5)

Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans: Emerald Bowl Picks

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Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans: Emerald Bowl Picks: I just don’t think the all mighty super-team, best program over the last decade USC Trojans will be excited to play in a day-after-Christmas day game against a team like Boston College. Listen, I think BC is better than people give them credit for, heck, they might be better than USC this season, but the Trojans are used to Rose Bowls, Championship Games, and Top 10 opponents come Bowl time – unranked BC could very well be someone USC looks right past.

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And with the chances USC loses one of their most explosive players (McKnight) in an offense that, quite frankly, hasn’t produced like Trojan offenses of the past, seems like the start of something interesting. USC certainly has the talent to match-up with any team in college football, but McKnight is only one key player missing this game, and all signs point to the Trojans not taking this game too seriously.

This game is being played in San Francisco, which just happens to be the same state USC calls home, and this will probably be more of a home game type feel for the Trojans, but I have a feeling BC will come with some fight. This IS a big game for them, and a chance to prove they belong with the big boys. One thing USC has learned, every time they suit up, they get their opponent’s best – and I like the Eagles to give the Trojans exactly that.

Boston College Eagles (+9) VS USC Trojans