Tag Archives: Free Picks

Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks

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Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks: This line has been weird all week, basically unbetable in most books, and I’m not really sure why that is. I know the Texans have an underrated defense, they are missing a rushing attack, but they have one of the better passing attacks in the league despite missing one of their best receiving options, TE, Owen Daniels.

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I know the Rams don’t have a very good rushing attack, but they do have Steven Jackson, though dinged up he be, and he’s good enough to be a threat and get close to 100 yards on the ground. I know that no matter who is healthy and who is injured for the Rams, they are going to have a bad quarterback with smallish wide receivers that rarely get the ball thrown to them where they can make a play. So exactly what the books are waiting for here is beyond me, but at -10, I think the Texans can do the job.

Those are the things, amongst other things as well, that I know.

Houston just needs to put two halves together and this thing will be more lopsided than NASCAR’s turning signals. If they don’t string together two well played halves, I still think 10 is a solid number for them to cover. Houston has been pretty solid on the road (3-3 with wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee) and they have beat up on bad teams (hello Bills -31 to 10, Raiders -29 to 6, and Seahawks -34 to 7). That’s good enough for the girl I go with, I’ll take the Texans.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL

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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL: This could be one of those games that the Eagles just lose so they can make things five times as difficult for themselves – admit it – they have a knack for paddy-whacking themselves right into the most difficult of situations no matter how sunny the horizon looks. But they can also score three touchdowns on two possessions, and continue to be one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, on both sides of the ball.

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But I can’t look past the Niners and nine points – it just seems to perfect to fail me. Niners and nine – the only way I’d feel better, the only way I’d feel I absolutely had to bet the Niners at all cost would be if they were getting 49 points – shoot – even if they were favored by 49, the symmetry would be too good to pass up. But 9 points? The 49ers have lost one single game by more than 7 points this season. In their 7 losses, four of them have been by 4 points or less. This team also plays close games, and they are also pretty good.

The Eagles passing attack matches up well with the 49ers leaky secondary, but throwing the ball to win every game doesn’t always go as easily as planned, similar to in basketball when you live by the three and die by the three, the Eagles have shot themselves square in the bag of goods on more than a couple occasions. The 49ers will make them earn it, and despite being just 1-5 on the road, San Fran looks like a nice bet with 9 points.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks

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Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks: When it comes right down to it, I think the Falcons are a lot better than their record insists, both these teams play close games, and Atlanta should be as healthy as they’ve been in the last month. The only thing I have going against me here is the Falcons’ road woes, and woeful they are indeed. Atlanta has just one road win in six chances, going 1-5 away from Atlanta this season.

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But I think the Falcons are better than a 6-7 insinuates – look at their losses. Aside from Carolina (a team that just happens to be a match-up nightmare for the run-defense-less Falcons) Atlanta has only lost to winning teams, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints, Giants, Eagles, and Saints – and 4 if those games have been by one possession. They play close games. And they often step up their play for big games.

The Jets have won 3 straight after losing three straight in November. But it’s not like they’ve played dominate football, they’ve just played one of the softest three weeks in football, playing at home against Carolina, then on the road against powerhouses such as the Bills and Buccaneers – sign me up for that schedule. The Jets haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since they upset the Patriots in Week 2.

Offensively, the Falcons are obviously better, and even against bad defenses, the Jets have had plenty of trouble bringing the football with them to the end-zone. That’s enough for me to take the Falcons at +6.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I think that, when this line came out, the line was reflecting a general prediction that the Colts were going to start resting starters. But when Indy announced that everybody that is healthy will play, all hell broke loose and the lines shot in another direction, and all the while most books don’t even have the game as an option. It’s tough when it’s the Thursday Night game and there’s no real injuries, and still Vegas can’t pull their collective heads out far enough to go with a proper line for the dang thing. But now, Wednesday morning early, the game is a 3 point spread in favor of the Colts, and while it’s no gimmie, I have to like Indy on the road here.

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It’s not Indy as much as it’s Jacksonville, I just can’t trust them. They’re good enough to challenge the Colts – nothing they do is flashy, but they have enough solid play offensively to put up some points, and holding an Indy team that isn’t playing at full strength, for rest or minor injuries, seems possible. Even with their unexciting defense the way it is. But how can you trust the Jaguars? They’re way up, way down, unimpressive at home, terrible on the road, barely beating bad teams, getting killed by a handful, and they just don’t play smart football.

In the end, I trust the Colts more than the Jaguars, and think their football intelligence, as much on the sidelines as on the field, will get them their 14th win over Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick: It’s painful for me to do this, I mean, the 49ers have been pretty good to me this year and my favorite player ever to lace up his cleats and put a uniform on is Mike Singletary – but I have to go with the road favorites this week, and it has a lot to do with Singletary allowing his offense to become a spread it out, pass first, run never attack that doesn’t allow them to control the game whatsoever. Mike… Why are you doing it to me, my man? You have Frank Gore in the backfield, run the ball!

The Cardinals have been very good on the road, and even more importantly, very good lately. Some people are going to go-on-ahead and call this a trap game, but it’s hard for me to believe that the Cardinals won’t be ready for a NFC West seal-up game against the 2nd best team in their division. Now, 70% of the public bet likes Arizona, and I know this one isn’t as lopsided as a percentage like that would insist, but I still have to take the Cardinals with a chance for a push if they win by just a field goal.

It’s very hard to beat a good team twice in one season (though that seems to be happening more this season), and the 49ers almost seem like a different team since they snuck by the Cardinals on opening day. They have a little more explosion offensively, but they’ve traded in stability for explosiveness, and I don’t think that’s a good trade for them. The Cardinals have played pretty well in each of their last 5 games, and won each of the last 4 Kurt Warner has started in. With a chance to lock up the division, I think they come out and win a hard-nosed battle on Monday Night.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick: This Sunday Night Football game should be a great one. NBC definitely does a better job than ABC and a way better job than the NFL Network when it comes to picking great match-ups. Maybe they have a special deal? Maybe they’re just smarter – whatever it is, the chance for the Giants to pull into a tie with Philadelphia, and the chance the Eagles have to stay atop their division, makes for one hell of a Nationally televised game – especially when it’s the Eagles and the Giants, two of the more popular teams in all of sports.

This match-up has been more than great over the years, in fact, while the Eagles have won three straight, they’ve been the underdog in all three games. Even more amazing, the underdog has covered this match-up in each of the last ten games, and the underdog has won outright in 9 of the last 10. That’s unheard of. The road team has won 7 of the last 10 games. Only three times since 2005 has the game finished with more than a touchdown separating the two, and the Eagles have won 2 in a row by double digits – including a 40-17 win in Philly earlier this season.

Neither team has a ton of injuries, but both will be missing key players. Brian Westbrook, probably the most important guy in this offense over the last five years, is doubtful yet again. Aside from that, most of the recently injured Eagles are probably for Sunday Night’s game. The Giants don’t have a bunch of injuries, but the few they’ve had have been crucial. Kenny Philips and Antonio Pierce are both out for the season, and the Giants are a little dinged on the offensive line as well. This should be a heck of a game, but I like the Eagles in this huge match-up.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants:

Papas Picks: NFL Week 14 Underdog Predictions

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Alright, I’ve gone 4-1 twice in the last 3 weeks – but the week I didn’t run into 4-1 was a tough one to stomach. I guess that’s the way with underdogs, when the ball doesn’t bounce your way, you look like a dope. I looked pretty solid last week as two of my unpopular dogs won outright, the Dolphins and Raiders. I was pretty stunned the Steelers fell at home to the Raiders, but I was pretty happy looking at 15.5 points against a team that hadn’t won big all year. It’s too bad I never write this article quick enough for Thursday games, because I would have loved getting another underdog win over the Steelers… This week, I have a couple more Dogs that look like pedigree models with all there glorious points – here are this week’s picks.

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Washigton Redskins @ Oakland Raiders (+1): The Redskins find ways to lose, really, they are very good at it. The Raiders have turned it around a bit, and now that they can complete a simple pass to a wide open receiver, they aren’t nearly as bad as before. I like them to win their 3rd in 4 games – crazy.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: The Chargers are better than the Cowboys, and Dallas always hits a wall and loses important games late. If they lose here, they have are guaranteed to be 2nd place in the NFC East – that means it’s a big game – that means trouble for Big D.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Bears are 4-2 at home this year – so that’s what I have going for me here. They’ve played much worse than they are, and the Packers have been on a streak of really impressive games – I think those things are bound to turn around in one cold afternoon in Chicago.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Baltimore Ravens: Oh the Ravens and their impotent offense, I mean un-potent, well, what ever it is, it’s not producing many hits lately. With Daunte starting (for a guy with really small hands, I still think he’s pretty good, but I might be living in his fantasy dominating past) I think the Lions have a good chance to put up a few touchdowns through the air, the kid has always thrown the deep ball well. That will be enough to cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) @ Houston Texans: I know the Hawks suck on the road, but this team is finally getting healthy, and there’s nothing like a team finally getting healthy when all the other teams are finally starting to lose some players. Houston has struggled lately, definitely misses having one of their most dynamic players in the backfield, and is just 2-4 on the road this season. Oh yeah, and there’s rumbling that their coach might get the axe – that’s never good. One more thing, they’ve lost 4 straight.

San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks

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San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks: A lot of people like the Chargers this week, and while I, in the end, am with them, it’s not that easy for me. I think Dallas will have a lot of pressure for Philip Rivers, and I think the Cowboys are sick of hearing about this December swoon crap, and I think they’ll come ready to play this Sunday. When the Cowboys come ready to play, they are definitely one of the tougher teams in the NFL to beat.

But I also like what the Chargers have done, and just barely enough, just by the smallest of margins, like them to cover on the road in Dallas. I think the Chargers have spread the ball around enough to force Dallas’s secondary to pay more attention to other pass catchers, and that will probably open up some things for Vincent Jackson to make big plays like he was earlier in the year.

I also think the Chargers throw a bit of a monkey wrench in the plans of Dallas by running the ball with some success early. The Chargers haven’t been very good running the ball yet this year, but I see a little something going well for LT and the Bolts rushing attack this week in Dallas.

The Chargers secondary has also turned things around. After a tough start to the season, and questionable play most of last year, the Chargers are making plays and keeping the ball in front of them. If they can make Dallas work for their points, I think they pull the upset in Big D. It’s a very tough call for me, but my lean has to be on San Diego, “Spanish for Whale’s Vagina.” 🙂

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins vs Oakland Raiders Week 14 NFL Picks

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Washington Redskins vs Oakland Raiders Week 14 NFL Picks: The Redskins are better than the Raiders. There it is. The Raiders have more wins that Washington, but that has rarely meant anything to me when judging a team’s worth. Maybe I’m wrong for that, maybe I’m not, but the bottom line is, this is my freaking picks section, I write it every week, I have a pretty damn good record, especially when you consider the fact that I pick every single game every single week – and guess what, I happen to think I’m a pretty good judge of which teams are better than others. The Redskins, at 3-9, are better than the 4-8 Oakland Raiders, and I feel pretty confident about that statement.

Now just because one team is better than the other doesn’t mean I’m betting on them for sure, sometimes a lesser team is just a tough match-up for a better team, and sometimes the spread burden is just too much to bear, but this week, I like the better team, I’m taking the Redskins.

Washington hasn’t won on the road yet, but there’s a first time for everything, and it’s not like the Raiders make Oakland a tough place to play. Oakland is just 2-4 at home this season. 56% of the public likes Washington, and I think for good reason. While the Raiders have played well under Bruce Gradkowski (beating Cincinnati and Pittsburgh while winning 2 of their last 3), I can’t imagine they win 3 of their last 4. Washington has had tough luck this year, or no luck, however you want to put it, they’ve lost 6 games by less than a touchdown, and during their current 3 game losing streak against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Saints, they’ve lost by a total of 7 points. They’ve been ahead in both going into the 4th quarter. At some point the luck has to turn in their favor – like this week for example.

Washington Redskins (pk) @ Oakland Raiders:

St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick

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St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick: This line moved from 11 (which I thought was a little high considering how well the Rams defense has played lately, and how the Titans don’t put up a ton of points per game – 20) to 13.5 at most books. The move was early, and as of Thursday Night you could get the game at 14 at one book. I’d be surprised if that option continues to exist, as +14 seems like too good of a deal despite the 60% public bet on the home team Titans.

Listen, I know the Rams have a single win to their name, and I know I’ve been quoted calling them the worst team in football, but I’ve seen one hell of a turnaround with this team, and it all started after the Colts pistol whipped them 42-6 in St. Louis on October 25th. Since then, the biggest loss they’ve had was a 10 point defeat to the Seahawks in a game that was pretty close. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 spreads, and they even won a game (though it was against Detroit). I’m not ready to call them good, but their defense is playing good football, they have a good coach that is changing the losing mentality, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they found a way to pull a big upset over the next few weeks.

Do I think the Titans will lose? I’m not saying that, they’ve been playing even better football than the Rams over the last 5 weeks, and they have a very good rushing attack and a quarterback that rarely loses. They also have a pretty solid defense. But 13.5 points? No, I think that’s way too many, thank you. I’ll take the Rams.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans: