Tag Archives: Free Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction: New Orleans is awesome and it’s claimed they’ll be starting and playing their best players exclusively, not slowing their offense down over the last two weeks despite having home field locked up throughout the NFC playoffs, aka, the part of the playoffs that is actually important to have home field advantage in – because, well, home team advantage matters not in the Super Bowl, unless you think the team that wears white has a better chance to win. In which case you are a donkey.

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Despite New Orleans being awesome, and their coach claiming they would be going gung-ho for victory, I have a feeling the Saints won’t go all out in this one. If they game has proven a good enough tune-up by halftime, I think the Saints do begin to rest players. With that in their head, and the feeling they have after finally losing a game last week, I actually think the Bucs at +15 are a fine bet.

Tampa can be very streaky, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have a freshman project quarterback running their offense, a freshman youthful coach running their sideline, and an entire team full of youngins. But streaky isn’t such a bad thing against the Saints, a team that has shown an ability (or knack) for playing down to their opponents. 15 is a lot of points for a Saints team with absolutely nothing to gain from playing all out in this one. The Bucs are too young to think about all they don’t have to play for, so I like them to cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick: It’s hard to lose faith in a team, but it’s happened. It takes me more weeks than most, but Tom Brady’s second half woes, the Patriots general effortless (not in a good way) play in the second half, and the teams inability to get the ball in the end zone, has me at a loss for faith. Yes, I no longer believe in my old saying, “Tom can cover anything, anywhere,” and hey, it happens to every team sooner or later.

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New England just hasn’t been able to score, and while they are still winning, and still close to a lock for the playoffs, their inability to put the ball in the end zone, teaming with the oddsmakers continuing to handicap them as if they are the Patriots of the record breaking offense during the undefeated regular season, makes them a fade right now. At least in my book they are.

Listen, you all know what I think of the Jaguars, not much. They don’t go about their business very well, they don’t run the ball as much as they should, and most of the time they underuse their best player, but this is still a team that can put up points. And despite their defensive woes, they can step up their attack in big games. There won’t be a bigger game for Jacksonville than this. Their season is on the line, and while I think the line ends this week in New England (where the Pats are undefeated this season) I still think it’s closer than 9 points. The Pats have found a way to win ugly, and I expect mediocre play from them yet again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview

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Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview: Maybe the Panthers are better than I give them credit for. Maybe there’s something to be said for a team as poorly coached and with as crappy quarterback play as they’ve gotten that can still manage a 6-8 record with a 7-7 ATS mark through 14 games. Maybe that secondary that has shut down opposing passing attacks is in fact pretty damn good, and not just lucky. Maybe. But I still don’t think so. Maybe I’m stubborn. Maybe I’m downright overconfident in my ability to accurately judge any given NFL team. Whatever it is, I certainly don’t believe in the Panthers.

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New York has climbed right back into the playoff race with 3 wins in their last 5 games, beating Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington to get to 8-6 with two to go. And right now, they control their own playoff destiny. Like good teams have done in the past, the Giants are playing some of their best football of the season. After losing 4 straight in the middle of the year, New York has started running the ball better and playing better defensively as well. They are still dealing with a lot of injuries, especially in the secondary, but if there’s one team that will have plenty of trouble taking advantage of that dinged up pass-defense, it’s the Panthers.

Listen, it’s nice to see somebody else throwing balls in Carolina, but Matt Moore is an interception waiting to happen, or five. He’s been pretty lucky thus far, but eventually, he’s going to get it for the decisions he makes. Why not this week?

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7)

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions

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Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions: About 60% of the public bet is on Miami, and while they are a better team at home, the Texans have shed their normal “road schmo” title, going 4-3 away from Houston so far this season. And despite the Dolphins ability to run the football with success against just about any opponent, I do happen to think Houston is the better team of the two. Not only can they throw the ball as well as any team in the league, but defensively they bring a lot more heat than many believe.

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This Houston defense has given up 21 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. And while that normal late season swoon basically eliminated the Texans from post-season dreams, they are still playing for their first winning season in, well, in forever. They’ve been 8-8 each of the last two seasons, and while that’s a step in the right direction, a winning year is theirs if they can win out. With that on the line, I definitely expect this one to be a battle.

So it will come down to the little things, or the small details, and the fact that Houston has had just about the worst luck all season long has something to do with my decision. Yes, that kind of stuff evens out folks, and it should do that here. Houston lost their first game by 17 points. Since then, they’ve lost 6 other times. Since then, not a single loss has been decided by more than 8 points. Those one score games have killed them, but I think they get this one. The luck turns!

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Picks

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Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers Week 16 NFL Picks: It’s amazing the way match-ups can make themselves special. Take this one, for example, the Hawks and Packers have a common link: they are the only two teams that have lost to Tampa Bay this season. Amazing.

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Listen, anything can happen, and it very well might, but Seattle on the road, going up against a pissed off Packers team that just lost by a point on the road with a last play touchdown – please. When you add on the fact that Green Bay has been lighting people up, winners in 5 of their last 6 games, and going up against probably the most pathetic playing bunch of no-effort, poorly coached, aggression-less clowns holding a 1-6 road record close to their heart – yeah, the Packers seem like a no-brainer.

And despite my insessent searching to tell me otherwise, I can’t find a good reason to go with the road dog here. I know just under 63% of the bet is on Green Bay, and that has to be a bit of a red-flag, but that can’t sway my bet. I know the Packers have only won a few games by more than 14 points, but Seattle seems to fit the bill of the lackluster opponents responsible for Green Bay’s biggest wins (teams like Detroit-twice, and Cleveland. Maybe talent-wise, Seattle is better that those teams, but effort-wise, I’d have to say everyone ranks higher than the Sea Chickens.

The Packers are 5-2 at home, and aside from one mishap against Tampa Bay, have stomped the lesser NFL teams so far this season. I like that trend to continue with a Packer win in Green Bay. They have more to play for, play harder, are more aggressive, and finally are a terrible match-up for Seattle’s soft offense.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns: Expert NFL Picks

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Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Expert NFL Picks: What the Browns have been doing lately depends very little on quarterback play, and even if it did, Brady Quinn wasn’t showing flashes of Bernie Kosar or anything crazy like that, so Derek Anderson should be able to step in and do a terrible job. In fact, this game is guaranteed to have some amazingly poor quarterbacking play. A couple throws and decisions made will surely perform like pepper spray in the casual on-watcher’s eye, so much so that I can’t wait to catch a glimpse. That’s right, I’ll have this game recorded for my complete viewing pleasure. Anytime I get sad football is over come this off-season, I’ll play the first few minutes of this game and feel better instantly!

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All jokes aside, I think the Browns are a decent bet here. They’ve played pretty solid football (sounds gross, I know) over the last 6 weeks or so. Maybe not solid, but there’s been something good coming from their team in all 6 of their last 6 games. Against Baltimore, their defense was stout. Against Detroit, their offense came alive. They lost by just 9 to Cincinnati in another tough defensive battle. They lost by a touchdown to one of the best teams in football (San Diego). They beat Pittsburgh straight up, and made it two in a row by laying 41 points on Kansas City in a game where their rushing attack (mainly James Harrison) torched the Chiefs for 300+ yards and a 41-34 score on the road.

Oakland has a better defense, but just barely. I’m not sure what I would have conceded first, teh Raiders winning two straight or Cleveland winning 3 in a row. But it looks like the answer’s Cleveland for me this week. At home, a solid run game, I’ll take them.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

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The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

New York Giants vs Washington Redskins: Monday Night Football Preview

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I like what the Redskins have been doing lately. It seems as if it’s too late for Coach Zorn, but it shows what Jason Campbell might be able to do if you open up the offense for him and let him take chances down the field. I don’t know why it took so long, or why coaches insist on limiting struggling quarterbacks to fewer plays, less responsibility, and fewer options – because everybody should realize that if you go into the game knowing you can’t do certain things, either physically or mentally, you have likely already fallen too far behind to win at all. If you question that, check the film from earlier in the season. But just because I like the Redskins forward motion doesn’t mean I’m picking them here.

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In fact, I’m taking the road favorite New York Football Giants to cover in Washington. Like the Redskins, I think the Giants are playing better football as well. Their offense has a rushing attack that is finally playing well after expectations were met earlier in the season. Their passing attack is getting back to the success they had earlier in the year.

The Redskins might be playing well, but sports are all about winning battles, and I don’t know where the Redskins are better than the Giants. I know New York has struggled in the secondary, but will Jason Campbell have enough time to take advantage? I’m saying no. I’ll take the Football Giants.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins:

Vikings vs Panthers Sunday Night Football Week 15 Picks

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Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers Sunday Night Football Week 15 Pick: The Panthers aren’t very good, but even worse yet, they haven’t been coached very well this year. This team, no matter what the situation, how much time is left on the clock, likes to throw the ball when they are running with success. It baffles me. It pains me to see one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL go to Matt Moore when the game is on the line, when you have DeAngleo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, a good offensive line that has successfully created running room against just about every opponent they’ve played again, when you have a 2nd string quarterback that is amazingly worse than the turnover machine that started the first 10 games of the season. But the Panthers continue to do their due diligence, as they threw the ball more than they ran it last week, despite being down by a score or less for most of the entire game, and having Williams run for about 7 yards per carry, the Panthers did it again. Amazing.

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So how can I put my money on this team? I can’t. The Viking have a very good rushing attack, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the Panthers a little taste of the recipe Carolina should be using. Adrian Peterson looks like a good candidate to gain 150 yards this weekend. The Vikings are very tough up front, and could limit the only thing the Panthers do well.

So, not only is this a terrible match-up for the Panthers, but they haven’t shown any signs of figuring it out. Give me the Vikings and a mere touchdown. Thanks.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks: Week 15 Picks

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 15 Picks: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have a worse record than the Seattle Seahawks, but it’s hard to say which team has managed a more terrible and disappointing season. While Tampa has managed just a single win, a flukey offensive performance against the Green Bay Packers what seems like ages ago, the Seahawks have consistently looked terrible against any team worth half a penny. In their healthiest game of the season since about Week 1, the Hawks got full throttled by the Houston Texans last week, giving up 7,322 yards in the first five minutes of the game. It looked like Houston was running a two-minute drill against 8th graders. But, despite all that mumbo jumbo, I’m going with the Hawks at home by 7. I don’t know why I’m doing it, but I’ll try to explain the best I can.

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Seattle is 4-2 at home, and obviously they are so weak mentally that they think playing at home actually gives them an advantage. They are one of the worst teams in the league on road, second to only a couple teams, one of them being the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Buccos have yet to win a road game this season.

67% of the public bet is on Seattle, and I’ve always questioned taking a team that is 3 games under .500 yet favored by a touchdown – but I think Seattle can run early and often on the Bucs, and if Jim Mora can promptly remove his head from the suit of aces, and give the ball to his most explosive offensive player (Justin Forsett) then I think they’ll wing the game easily. Nothing like putting your chips on Jim Mora’s logic…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)