Tag Archives: NCAA Football

UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars Pick & Preview

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UCLA Bruins (-18) @ Washington State Cougars Pick and Preview: I don’t think there’s much to this game. The spread is small because the Bruins haven’t been able to score that much. But don’t get it twisted, they haven’t played a team like the Cougars either – this isn’t going to be a “low scoring game”. One of the two teams will walk away with a pretty low score, but if this is any closer than 35-10 I will be absolutely stunned. Heck, I’ll be downright amazed if the Cougars get passed the Bruins 30 yard line more than twice on Saturday.

The Cougars give up an average of 38.6 points per game. But it doesn’t matter how good your offense is, it’s just hard to score much more than 40 points against a bad team that doesn’t compete – you stop trying to score so much and start running out the clock, this happens to the Cougars on a weekly basis, and I’m telling you, just because the Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+ in Cougar-land.

What has to be scaring bettors is the Cougars cover against Arizona State. But that was a fluke game, and USC only putting up 27 on the Cougs in their match-up, that was a low point for the Trojans over the last decade. The Bruins defense is good, their front 4 will not allow anything for free, and I doubt the Cougars will be throwing their way to a cover. I full expect a huge difference in this game.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 5

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I’m 9 games over .500 on the season after tallying my third winning week in four chances. I’m staying away from the Trojans Thursday Night game against the Beavers because weird things happen in the middle of the week, but I am starting a day early with a road dog heading into Louisville. Check it out below as I’ve got 9 for Week 5…

Friday’s Game

Connecticut Huskies (+3) @ Louisville Cardinals (8:00pm EST): I know games during the week can be weird, and that’s why I like to stay away from them, but I see a lot of value in the Huskies here. Besides the fact that anything can happen in the Big East, the Cardinals just aren’t the team everyone thinks they are. They struggle against everyone and rarely does a drive look clean from start to finish. Connecticut doesn’t do things pretty either, but they are a lot tougher than Louisville, and their confidence is there. I like the Huskies to pull the minor upset, so 3 points is nice.

Saturday’s Games

Pittsburgh Panthers (-16.5) @ Syracuse Orange (12:00pm EST): I don’t like to bet on the Panthers as favorites, it’s really not my style – but against a team like Syracuse, I’ll take my chances. The Orange are brutal, and I’ve said it before, there’s no easier road game than at Syracuse. Pittsburgh should be able to take their methodical attack and accidentally turn it into a yard gathering machine. I like the Panthers to win this game in the 34-10 range.

Navy Midshipmen (+16) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3:35pm EST): This is a bit of a trap game for the Demon Deacons. They just walked into Florida State and beat the Seminoles as an underdog, and next week they are going up against a Clemson Tiger team that carried a lot of hype into the season. Navy doesn’t seem like much of a challenge, but the Midshipmen can really run the ball, and that physicality can run clock as well as even out the talent level a little bit. I like Navy as a 16 point underdog in a game that’s big for them and a little for Wake Forrest.

Northwestern Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes (-8) (12:00pm EST): The Hawkeyes lost a heart breaker to the Panthers last weekend, but they are the much better team in this game. Northwestern is 4-0, but don’t buy into the record. Games against Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, and Ohio are good ways to build your record to 4-0, but they are bad ways to get your team ready to play conference foes. Iowa won’t take it easy on Northwestern, and their choice to play tough non-conference games like that against Pitt will benefit them in this one.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes (-7) (12:00pm EST): Correct me if I’m wrong, but Miami looked like they got a little of their swagger back last week and now at home against a Carolina team that could be without their leader and best offensive player, T.J. Yates, they can pressure the Heels into lots of mistakes. Even if T.J. plays, he’s not going to be 100%, and if Miami has one thing, they have defensive athletes that can make life tough on a gimpy signal caller. This could be pre-mature, but I’ll take the risk – too many question marks in Carolina’s backfield to ignore the 7 point spread here. Gotta take the Canes.

Buffalo Bulls (+6.5) @ Central Michigan (4:00pm EST): I think the Bulls are the better team, flat out. They smoked UTEP, played well against Pittsburgh, beat a solid Temple team, and played well against a great Missouri squad. I really think they have a chance to take the Mac. Central Michigan is no pushover, and they’ve played well in some games, I just think Buffalo is the better team and so I’ll take them as a near touchdown dog.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers (-24.5) (7:30pm EST): I know I’m not usually a numbers guy, and these numbers aren’t the lone reason I’m taking the Tigers here but I figure I might as well share them with you. Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games. Mississippi State is 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games. Mississippi State is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing LSU. Here are the scores from this match-up lately, LSU first: 45-0, 48-17, 37-7, 51-0, 41-6, 31-13, 42-0. Hmm…. I know LSU’s offense isn’t a dynamic scoring machine, but I think they found a thrower in the young kid that finished the Auburn game last week. I also think they seemingly know how to up their game against the Bulldogs. I’ll take em.

Purdue Boilermakers (+2) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I really can’t believe this. This is a “free money” pick for me. It’s so “free money” that I’m considering not risking a ton on it because it just seems way too good to be true. That Irish team that couldn’t do anything until late when the game was over last week – that’s the real Irish team. Notre Dame didn’t beat Michigan, I’m telling you, they took the win that Michigan gave them. Purdue should handle the Irish even in Indiana.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Nebraska Corhuskers: Hmmm… I might not be the brightest brick in the pool, but I certainly can see some dog value when it eats the food I buy it and craps in my yard. The Cornhuskers really challenged themselves to start the season 3-0. First it was Western Michigan, and then San Jose State, and then New Mexico State. Yikes. The Hokies are getting better every week. They lost to a very tough East Carolina team, then ground out a late win against a tough G-Tech team, and a good Tar Heel team as well. They are ready to dominate the Cornhuskers – you can bet on that. The 6.5 points are just icing on the cake in this one.

DIRECTV – ESPN GamePlan Free NCAA Picks: Week 2

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One of my readers asked me to cap all of DirecTV’s GamePlan picks during the season. I looked into it a little bit and figured I could give my insight on these games every week during the year without too many tears being shed. This will be in addition to my normal college picks every single week, because those picks are the one’s I find the most value in. Again, these are all the games that DirecTV has in their college football package for Week 2’s games. Enjoy and good luck! A couple games didn’t have lines, but these are the ones that did – 6 DTV package games for your viewing (and betting) pleasure.

All games take place on Saturday the 6th!

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7) @ Boston College Eagles (12:00PM EST):

I’m not crazy about this game. I’m taking the points because both teams are led by their defense and pose a lot of questions on offense. Georgia Tech runs the ball very effectively, but the Eagles have a stout defense to combat that upside. The Eagles have won ATS in 4 of the 5 contests between these schools, and have won last season 24-10. I still like Tech’s ability to keep this game within reach, and turn the Eagles young offense over a couple times. I’m taking Tech.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+18) @ Auburn Tigers (12:30PM EST):

It won’t be too easy for the Tigers. Southern Miss has a few great athletes that could give the TIgers some trouble. Austin Davis (QB) will be good enough to put the ball in the air at Auburn, but it will be the Southern Miss rushing attack that does their share of damage. I understand last week’s game was against UL Lafayette, but still, the Golden Eagles had two backs rush for over 100 yards including Damion Fletcher’s 222 yard 2 touchdown performance. Any team with a running game is a good (+17) bet against a mediocre offense. Take the Golden Eagles.

Cincinnati Bearcats (+21.5) @ Oklahoma Sooners (3:30PM EST):

This game looks a little scary for the Sooners, except for the fact that they are one of the Nation’s best teams. The Bearcats have a very good defense that will kick and scratch all night long if it means they have a chance. Offensively, the Bearcats will struggle to score at Oklahoma, but I still like their chances of keeping this game within that huge 3 touchdown margin. The Sooners are good, but not good enough to beat everyone in the 57-2 range like they did last week. I’ll take the Sooners to win by 10, but the Bearcats will make it a battle.

Mississippi @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-8) (3:30PM EST):

The Demon Deacons did Baylor dirty last week on the road. The Bears looked lost as Wake marched through their defense to win 41-13. Riley Skinner is for real, and so are the Deacons. Being lost in the mess of ACC peers, Wake should continue to get favorable lines. Eight points to cover against a decent but not great Mississippi team seems easily manageable. Wake isn’t a team that’s going to win a lot of games by 20 points, but this could be one of the few times they do.

Buffalo Bulls @ Pittsburgh Panthers (-13) (6:00PM EST):

Buffalo mangled UTEP in week 1, as quarterback Drew Willy completed 10 passes for 221 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bulls also managed two 100 yard rushers, as RB James Starks took 31 carries for 179 yards. But that was UTEP, can they really do the same thing against a team like Pittsburgh? I don’t think so. But they don’t have to do the same thing against Pitt to win against the spread. But I’ll have to go with Pitt here. Sure, they lost to Bowling Green last week, but the Falcons are much better than advertised, and their offensive attack is a bad match-up for the Panthers. This week, Pittsburgh has to shut down the run to win, and I like their chances at that a lot more. LeSean McCoy will have his way with the Bulls, and I like the Panthers come back from last week’s opening day loss to win by at least two touchdowns.

Tulane Green Wave (+30.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide (7:00PM EST):

After being moved around a lot because of Hurricane Gustav, and being thoroughly outmatched by the Tide athletically, the Tulane Green Wave are in for more tough times this weekend. Alabama may have played perfect football last week against a good Clemson team, but even so, they have definitely show that they are better than advertised. But that doesn’t mean I’ll be taking the Tide in this one. A 30 point favorite is too much for me to buy. The Tide come in hot on bettor’s minds, and that’s never a good thing for the favorite. Tulane plays teams pretty tough. They lost a lot in Matt Forte, but in their season opener I expect enough excitement to keep this game closer than 4 touchdowns. Alabama is a tough match-up for Tulane, as their run defense is stellar, but that won’t stop the Green Wave from handing the ball off, and their schemes are good enough to get some first downs. John Parker Wilson will come back to earth in this one. We’ll see, but I’m not buying the Tide beating many more teams by four scores…

Free NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

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Here we are! It’s August 25th, 2008 and NCAA football games are just a few short days away. Summer is on the way out, and fall is just about to turn the leaves red. That means school for you young scholarly types and just colder weather for the rest of you – but it also means football! It all starts with a little NCAA action. For Week 1 I went ahead and picked out 10 winners… Enjoy the first edition of my NCAA Free Picks for 2008…

Thursday’s Games


Vanderbilt Commodores @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (-4): (7:30pm EST, 8-28-2008)

Vanderbilt loses their best player in wide receiver Earl Bennett. He was by far their most effective and productive offensive player. Their leading returning receiver is out with a stress fracture (George Smith). If that weren’t enough, the Commodores also said goodbye to their leading rusher from last year, as well as their entire starting offensive line – that’s the kicker. Miami has a stout defense with very talented linebackers. They may be a smaller college, but they can play football. The Commodores don’t have much cohesion right now, as new starters are still being decided. The starting quarterback for this Thursday’s game wasn’t decided by the weekend, leaving much to be answered in the four days before kickoff. While Vanderbilt has all the questions, Miami of Ohio looks to be full of answers.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-12) @ Baylor Bears: (8:00pm EST, 8-28-2008)

Wake Forest is the real deal. Despite winning 8 of their last 10 games and then spanking Connecticut in the 2nd half of their bowl game, the Deacons just can’t seem to get the credit they deserve. THe Deacons return their freshman quarterback sensation, Riley Skinner, and while they lose their top receiver from ’07, Wake is full of young talent at receiver. Head coach Jim Grobe knows what he’s doing. The Deacons are off and on on the road, but they’ve been a darn good football team with Riley Skinner at quarterback. I expect them to start off the season hot, and ride their quarterback to the top of the ACC. Take them over the Bears by a couple touchdowns.

Oregon State Beavers (-3) @ Stanford Cardinal: (9:00pm EST, 8-28-2008)

The Oregon State Beavers seem like the forgotten Pac-10 team heading into the season. Everyone seems to forget that the Beavers won 7 of their last 8 games including an upset victory over Maryland in their bowl game. During the last 8 games of the season, the Beavers’ only loss came against USC in Southern California. Last year, when the Beavers played Stanford, a tough Oregon State defense held the Cardinal out of the end-zone, winning 23-6. The Beavers lost their talented tail-back, Yvenson Bernard, to graduation – but they have a nice offensive line and a couple new running backs that have impressed when given the chance. One player that should have a great bounce back season is Sammie Stroughter, the speed demon that was a 2006 3rd team All-American. With family problems and injury woes, Stroughter struggled in 2007, playing only 3 games. He was awarded a medical red-shirt, and now he has one more chance to prove himself in the Pac-10. Every time he touches the ball, touchdowns can happen. Look for the Beavers to out-talent the Cardinal all over the field, dominating this early-season conference match-up.

Friday’s Game


Temple Owls (-7) @ Army Black Knights: (7:00pm EST, 8-29-2008)

Temple, amazingly, won 4 of their last 7 games, have three Pre-Seasons All Conference players returning, and were voted “Program on the Rise” by the MAC conference. They return their leading passer and an offensive line that found cohesion late last year. Defensively, Temple is better than expected, as Army will find out. Army switched their entire offense around this summer, moving from a no-huddle spread to an option based rushing attack. When that happens originally, teams seem to struggle because of the recruiting differences for offenses like that. I never thought I’d consider taking a Temple team on the road and favored by a touchdown, but that’s exactly what I’m doing and I’m confident about it.

Saturday’s Games


Bowling Green Falcons (+13) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (12:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Bowling Green Falcons bring 17 of 22 starters back to a team that is expected to compete for a WAC crown this season. The Falcons won 5 of their last 6 regular season games in 2007 before getting absolutely crushed in their bowl game against Tulsa. I like that last part. The Falcons have waited all summer, 17 returning starters and many other frustrated kids, to get back on the football field and prove that bowl game was a fluke. In comes the Panthers with one of the best running backs in the Nation and a former pro-football head coach. I like the Falcons’ chances – take them and all those points.

Akron Zips @ Wisconsin Badgers (-26): (12:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

As if going into Wisconsin to play the 12th ranked team in the Nation wasn’t a tough enough opener, the Zips have really struggled with injuries during football camp. With a couple junior college transfers and position battles being effected by these injuries, the Zips preparation time for a tough Wisconsin team will be shortened. The Badgers return big names, it seems, when looking at their 2008 starters. P.J. Hill, the ultra talented tailback, and Travis Beckum, one of the most highly touted TEs in college football. Defensively, the Badgers are senior laden with an elite linebacking crew. It may be his first season as a starter, but senior quarterback Allen Evridge has been around for a while. Look for the Badgers to lean heavily on the run and really pound it to the Zips.

Utah Utes (+3.5) @ Michigan Wolverines: (3:30pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Utes are very good and should win their conference this season. Michigan lost too many good players and are in the midst of a complete turn-around with their new head coach, Rich Rodriguez. I don’t know what else to say besides this, Utah is the better team with a better mentality and they also have nothing to lose in this one. Sign me up for that every single week.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6) @ Washington State Cougars: (3:30pm EST, 8-30-2008)

The Cougars weren’t very good a year ago, usually open the season soft, don’t have much of a home-field advantage during the first few weeks of the college football season, lost their star quarterback to graduation, and don’t have much confidence either. Hmm… I don’t like Pac-10 teams that open their seasons against tougher conferences, and that’s what I think this is. The Cowboys might not finish above .500 and they’ll probably look really bad in some games – but not this one. This is a team that, last year showed they can play tight with Kansas and Texas, beat Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Indiana – so I surely like them against the Cougars.

Michigan State Spartans (+5) @ California Golden Bears (8:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

This isn’t me loving the Spartans as much as me down on the Bears. Cal has a super talented and amazingly fast sophomore running back in Jahvid Best, but besides that I’m not too impressed. They are supposed to have one of the top rated offenses in the Pac-10, but without a quarterback to deliver the bread, I’m not sure that will be the case. Michigan State’s defense isn’t dynamic, but I think they’ll stack the box and make Cal’s quarterbacks beat them. That’s what will be the undoing of the Bears in Week 1, I just don’t think they can beat the Spartans through the air.

Idaho Vandals @ Arizona Wildcats (-27): (10:00pm EST, 8-30-2008)

It seems like a lot of points, and it is, but I just have a feeling the Wildcats are going to go off for about 45 points in this one. They always run the ball hard and Idaho consistently can’t stop anybody else’s ground game. The Wildcats finished the season well, beating Washington, UCLA, and Oregon before losing to ASU by 3 points. The Wildcats really played well all season last year, losing to Stanford by 1, USC by 7, Oregon State by 2 scores. I like the Wildcats to get a little luck to sway their way this season – but that shouldn’t matter against the Vandals. Idaho was 1-11 in the WAC last season, and I expect much of the same this time around. This game wouldn’t surprise me if it was a 45-7 WIldcat blowout.