Tag Archives: Week 9 NCAA Football Picks

West Virginia Mountaineers vs South Florida Bulls Free Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (-3)@South Florida Bulls Free Pick: The South Florida Bulls have hit their common lull. Per usual, the Bulls started the season on fire, winning their first 5 games, only to drop the last two and come right back down to earth. The only difference this time is that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the two straight losses for the Bulls, are very good teams this season. SF is still 5-2, and 3-3 ATS. They look to turn things around and beat the Mountaineers, something they’ve done 2 of the last 3 seasons.

They Mountaineers are coming off yet another win, a 28-24 home win against Connecticut. West Virginia is 6-1 so far this season, but just 2-4 ATS, so they haven’t beaten up on the teams they were expected to. Their single loss came on the road to Auburn. The Mounties still use their vaunted rushing attack, handing the ball to lightning quick running backs, but the question is will South Florida’s elite defensive speed match that speed rushing attack? The Mountaineers have out-rushed every opponent so far this season.

I’m taking the Mountaineers because I think their rushing attack is good enough to keep the ball in their hands. The Bulls have been out-rushed and beaten in each of the last two games, and I think that trend continues against WVU. I think the Mountaineers play better on a short week.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Tech Hokies Pick

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North Carolina Tar Heels (+17) @ Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: The 14th ranked Hokies come into this one looking to get back on track after taking it on the chin in a loss to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets came to play defensively, making most things tough on Tyrod Taylor and company, and a normally stout defensive front was beaten early and often by the Yellow Jackets rushing attack. It’s a short week for the Hokies, not always the easiest way to cover a 17 point spread against a tough conference opponent.

The Tar Heels come off a tough loss to Florida State last Thursday Night. They were on top for most of the game, getting up 24-6 in the 3rd quarter before FSU fought back with huge passing totals, torching a defense that played very well in the first half, and had previously been ranked #1 in the ACC. The Tar Heels would score only a field goal going forward, and the Seminoles scored a go-ahead touchdown with 6 minutes left in the 4th, it would turn out to be a game winner. A win here would certainly be sweet redemption for the Heels.

Looking at this game, I like the match-up problems Carolina’s stout run-defense has against a normally talented rushing game from the Hokies. I know UNC isn’t going to throw the ball a lot, they aren’t a passing team, but they have been known to grind out yards on the ground, and any team that can run and stop the run, is a nice value bet at +17. If you look at Virginia Tech’s losses, and game where they struggled – they got out-rushed. If the Heels can commit to stopping that Hokies run game, and put up some yardage on the ground themselves, an upset could happen. Either way, a cover seems likely.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Syracuse Orange Pick & Preview

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Cincinnati Bearcats @ Syracuse Orange (-15) Pick & Preview: The Bearcats have shot up to #7 in the Country during their undefeated run to start the season. They’ve climbed on Tony Pike’s back for some early victories, as the big tall signal caller impressed in wins over Rutgers and Oregon State. With Pike out for the last two, the Bearcats have relied more on the run. However, sophomore QB Zach Collaros has shown accuracy, hitting big passing plays while making moves with his feet. Cincinnati’s best wins are Oregon State and South Florida. They are 5-2 ATS this season, and the Under has won in 4 of their last 5 games.

Syracuse has been mediocre, a huge upswing from last year’s brutal season. New quarterback transfer, Greg Paulus, the former Duke Blue Devil point guard, has been solid. He’s thrown 9 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, but after 4 seasons away from the football field, he’s been asked to do a lot for the Orange, and he’s competed admirably. One thing Syracuse has been able to do is run. The Leadership in Syracuse is improved, and you can see it with effort all over the field – that springs the run game.

I’m taking Syracuse here because I think they can run on Cincinnati a little bit. The Orange can compete, and I think they keep it close.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 9

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Eight more picks for Week 9’s action – here they are… 

Boston College Eagles @ North Carolina Tar Heels (-3): You know my love affair with unranked favorites over ranked opponents – lets do it again this week. I know the Heels are without their starting quarterback and their stud receiver, but I like them against a weak Boston College team. 

Kentucky Wildcats (+26) @ Florida Gators: The Wildcats aren’t as good as the Gators, but just as they proved against Alabama, the nearness of ability is closer than three touchdowns. I like Kentucky at +26. I know they have a bunch of injuries, but the Gators know that too, and playing a tough opponent at home when they have a bunch of injuries doesn’t get you up for the game. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-2) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: I know the history here. I know the Nittany Lions haven’t won at Ohio State in my lifetime (does that date me?) – but I’m not so sure that means jack right now. The Lions have really impressed me. They’ve started big and finished big, they’ve started slow and finished strong – they are just a talented and physical football team that should give Ohio State trouble. I never thought I’d see the Buckeyes as home dogs, but I’m betting against them in this big one. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10) @ Washington Huskies: The only thing about this game is that UW needs this win for any kind of respect for the season. And I know Ty Willingham has a lot riding on this one because he was booted early from the Irish. But I almost think Notre Dame can find a lot to play for here with the emotional belief that many people think “this is Ty’s team he recruited”. That’s a joke, but it has been said. The Huskies have won of the Top 10 worst defenses in all the land. The Irish should find lots of room in UW’s secondary. 

Oklahoma Sooners (+18.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: I know, I know, don’t bet big road favorites in conference. I would like to abide by that rule except this exception is exceptionally exciting to me. Oh, EEEE – that’s close to the mark of the literary devil, luckily I’m just writing sports picks and I do what I want anyway. Yhatzee. 

Wyoming Cowboys @ TCU Horned Frogs (-30): Gotta take the Frogs here – they are a top 15 team in the country and only a handful are worse than the Cowboys. 41-3…

South Florida Bulls (-3) @ Louisville Cardinals: I don’t know, something about Louisville’s wins that just doesn’t get me on their side. The Bulls beat Kansas and Central Florida, and they almost took down Pitt. All 3 of those teams are better than Louisville’s 4 wins put together. I’ll take an in conference road dog again, blimey! 

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks (-1): Maybe I’m crazy but I like the Jayhawks here because they are at home and promise a more balanced attack and defensive game plan than the Raiders. That being said, this is a TT game and anything can happen. This is my smallest play of the week, but a play nonetheless.