Category Archives: NFL Picks

Free NFL picks by luckylester.com. Each week of the NFL football seasons Lucky Lester and guest writers post free picks or predictions on the outcome of the games. The site also publishes reviews of all the previously picked games.

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

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Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

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But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Expert NFL Picks: Washington Redskins vs San Diego Chargers

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These are the guys I don’t think will be playing any longer than one quarter for the Chargers this weekend…. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Marcus McNeil, Shaun Phillips, Shawne Merriman, Stephen Cooper, Luis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie, Eric Weddle, and more… That’s right, I basically just listed about every single starter the Chargers have, and the guys I missed, I only missed out of love. Or I couldn’t think of them. Sorry fellas.

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What do all those names listed together actually add up to? Well, I’m thinking they add up to Jim Zorn’s last win as a head coach of an NFL football team. I hope the guy gets another gig somewhere else, but he doesn’t strike me as the head coach type, and he already got his chance and didn’t make the most of an expensive roster. But what matters here is I’m predicting a Redskins win.

Washington will feed the ball to Quentin Ganther a lot, and I think he’ll have a big day against a Chargers defense that is getting ready for their bye week – you have to rest before a bye week, it’s important don’t you know. The Chargers are definitely the better team, but you just can’t care about that kind of stuff in the final week of the season. An entire team of #2 seeded Chargers are going to be doing more cheer leading than playing on Sunday in San Diego, and the Redskins will get the W.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders NFL Week 17 Pick

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You know what’s interesting about this entire situation? Just gander back at last year’s yarn pile and you’ll find the reason Tom Cable still has a job. And it could happen again this year. Yes, you may have forgotten, but last year the Raiders won their final two games, against Houston and then a huge upset win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that needed only to win to see the playoffs. Amazing. This year, the Raiders have yet another chance to do it again.

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After just three wins in the first 13 games, the Raiders try to finish the season 2-1 with two crushing wins over playoff hopefuls. Like last year, all their opponent has to do to see the post-season is win. Can Oakland do the dirty two seasons in a row? Tom Cable can only hope.

But then again, what is he really getting? He gets to wear strings and a big lying nose and grant Al Davis’s wishes. Sounds like my worst freaking nightmare. But the Raiders have played well lately under Cable, and give the guy a break, this team makes absolutely terrible roster decisions, drafts the wrong guy as if that’s the goal, and pays old receivers with bad kness 50 million bones to hardly even see the field.

What’s even more important, the Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Raiders. Defensively, the Ravens are good at stopping the only think Oakland does even reasonably well. Offensively, the Ravens do their best work where the Raiders can’t seem to stop anyone. Bingo was his name o.

Balitmore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders

Arses Five Favorites: Week 17 NFL Predictions

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Well, I got back on the winning track in Week 16, and while it wasn’t a fantastic four win week like I’m always hoping for, 3-2 brings me to 17-13 during my six week run of free picks. The Falcons, Packers, and Patriots won and covered easily while the Dolphins just failed outright and the Eagles needed a late field goal to win by three. This week seems pretty easy to me. But I’m staying away from those meaningless games that some other people think are gimmies – listen, I know you play hard when you have everything to lose and if the Saints sit all their starters, it should be an easier game for Carolina – but it doesn’t always work out like that, and I’ll pick some games where I’m not relying on a good team to play back-ups. Final regular season week, and here we go, go, go…

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Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The Bears are an easy pick, so easy that it makes my stomach lurch a little bit – but hey, Vegas can’t be right all the time, right? Right. The Bears need this game, really. They are the only crappy team in the NFL that actually needs wins. Their 1st round pick isn’t theirs, see, they need this one.

The 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis: The Rams are beat up bad, and they aren’t good when healthy. I doubt Steven Jackson gets thrown out there against Patrick Willis and that Niner run D, and without him the Rams are hornless.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami: The Steelers are the better team, and they don’t need magic and religion to get into the playoffs – they need help, don’t get me wrong, but unlike Miami, they don’t need every single team in the NFL to lose on the same day. I see the Steelers, definitely a team that rides ups and downs, flying to their third straight win – but missing the playoffs anyway.

Ravens (-11) @ Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are brutal, and even the Ravens aging secondary should take advantage of that turnover prone passing attack. All the Raiders can do is run, and they can’t stop the run – that’s a bad combo when Baltimore walks into town.

Titans (-5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I can’t wait to see Chris Johnson out-gain the Seahawks on Sunday. The kid is going to go for 400 yards. There will be 12-15 Seahawks playing defense at one time, and he’ll still get his. The Titans should win easily, and Jim Mora should resign due to coaching how to quit.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

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This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

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I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

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Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

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So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

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I can’t help but tell you the truth, I like the Eagles, and I want them to win. That being said, and if you read me with any sort of consistency, you’ll recognize that I go against a team I want to win just as much as I bet on them. It’s because I don’t bet with my heart, I don’t pick with my feelings, and I completely separate the two (betting and rooting) from each other. This just happens to be one of those times where my heart and brain come together as one, and I’m taking the Eagles.

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I’ve always been a strong believer in the truth to the idea that a tough team is hard to beat twice in the same season. This season that’s happened more than a couple times, but those couple times aren’t going to eliminate my feelings on the idea, and I think the Cowboys have a tough time taking down the Eagles for the second time this season. The first win came in Philadelphia, and it was earlier. Well, since then the Eagles have found themselves a bit, and come in looking like one of, if not the best team in the NFC heading into the playoffs. Of course that can all change with one beat down at the hands of the Cowboys, but like I said, I don’t see that happening.

The Cowboys are on a roll, beating the Saints (though they tried to lose that one late), and smacking the Redskins right in their lopsided heads. But they should have beaten the Redskins, and the win over the Saints was a big underdog affair. I think the Eagles put a little pressure on Romo and down go the Cowboys in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Pick

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily playing their best football of the season, running with success and playing much better defense. Not only did they smack around the Seahawks two weeks ago, using an arsenal of turnover causing defensive plays, but they went and upset a fully-healthy New Orleans Saints team in New Orleans last week as well, all behind rookie signal caller Josh Freeman. It’s really quite fantastic, I mean beating up on the Seahawks in Seattle is one thing, almost expected if you spend time watching them quit Sunday after Sunday, but the Saints in New Orleans – awesome.

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But that can’t last. You might think it can, but I’m here to tell you it can’t. The won both those games on the road, and that will make winning at home just a little bit different, just a little too different. The Bucs have a solid run-game, but I think the Falcons will feast on a couple arrant Freeman passes, and hello, Atlanta is good. I know they are hurting, definitely a team beat down by injuries this year, but they still have playmakers, and are just flat out better than Tampa Bay.

It all comes down to Tampa Bay winning three games in a row, and how I just absolutely cannot buy into it. If it was a one game thing, with Tampa coming in losing five straight, I could see the upset, but after winning two games in a row? Nope.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

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There’s not much too this game in my opinion. The Rams absolutely, in no way whatsoever, if the organization has any sense or feel for their own team and franchise, can not win this football game. They just can’t accept a win here. If they won, they would finish in a tie (likely) with the Detroit Lions, and that would go to a tie breaker for the draft, and that would give the Lions the number one pick over the Rams, and that would eliminate their chance at getting the best player in college football, Mr. Suh. So, like I said, they absolutely can not win this game.

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Luckily for them, they probably couldn’t win this game if they tried. They can’t throw the ball and they are playing against one hell of a run-stuffing unit in San Francisco – plus, the Niners are always trying to win, and their coach will make sure it happens, as a Week 17 win would assure the 49ers a .500 season, something they have to be trying hard to get to considering how much of a win that is for this once proud franchise.

The 49ers have been playing pretty good football over the last few weeks, beating Arizona and Detroit and losing to the Eagles. They’ve been running the ball a lot more, and that gives them the consistency they need to succeed against lesser teams. This one is easy folks, I like the 49ers by 17 points.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams:

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Week 17 NFL Picks

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This is a tough one indeed. The Giants have all but given up on that evil little tomato-toned rat faced coach of theirs, and it’s even worse for the defensive coordinator. I can’t say I don’t enjoy it a little bit though, in fact, I like it a lot. Nothing makes me happier than seeing those stupid looks from Eli and Coach Coughlin – every single time it has brand new humor to me. The question is, have they given up? Because it’s not like the Vikings are playing sound football either. And it’s not like the Giants are an easy match-up for the Vikings either, as New York matches up well with what the Vikings’ coaches want to do offensively.

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But I’m starting to think the Vikings are ready to actually give this team to Brett. Everyone saw what he could do last week when you open it up a little, and this Giants secondary has become an embarrassing group to watch. Offensively, the Giants can throw it around pretty good, but they don’t have any of that key balance that allows teams to get out of reach.

Having nothing to play for, being frustrated as a group, having no chance at keeping the Vikings out of the playoffs or messing things up for anyone else, I think the Giants are close to a rollover candidate this week, and with Minnesota all in trying to win and get home field advantage, if not at least get back on track and playing good football before the post-season smacks them in the face. I think they take advantage of Week 17 and get going with a big win.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)