Monthly Archives: November 2009

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick: I’ve been a big supporter of the Bills, saying often that they aren’t as bad as people think, and sure, sometimes that has kicked me right in the butt (see the Titans/Bills game a couple week ago when the Bills were right with Tennessee until they gave up 300 points in the 4th quarter, again) and sometimes it’s worked out for me (see last week’s game against the Jaguars), but I think this match-up ends up being just a little too tough for the Bills.

Usually, if Buffalo’s defense needs to focus on just one aspect of an opposing offense (just the run or just the pass) they do a pretty good job of making that tough for their opponent. But this is Miami, and they will pretty much run on anyone, and they won’t abandon that idea. Even without Ronnie Brown, they still have one of the more talented run blocking offensive lines in the league, and a great running back filling in as the full time guy – you might remember him from the Saints – or pre-marijuana Dolphins, Ricky Williams. Yeah, Ricky is back, folks, and he’s better than ever – or at least better than you think.

The Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4, covering in 3 of those games as well. Over their last 7 games they are 5-2 straight up and against the spread as well, and they have given fits to some very good teams this season, New Orleans, New England, Indianapolis, etc. – they are a good team. Not always the luckiest, but good nonetheless.

The 3 points shouldn’t be too much, I like the Bills, think this one will be close, but 27-17 is what I’m thinking.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons Football Pick: I knew you’d be able to get this game at a better number later in the week, because despite what Atlanta’s recent history suggests, everybody thinks this offense is too explosive to play a close game against a tomato can like the Buccos. But wait, just like that, I was wrong – the line actually went down from the 13.5 I got it at on Monday Night – and now sits from 11.5 to 13 – both of which I think are decent bets, but obviously not as good as the touchdown and two field goal loss by the Bucs that would still pay me for a win. Regardless, check out my thoughts and see which way you want to go.

The public liked Atlanta so much, 60%, that the line went down in their favor – hmmm… Vegas doesn’t know everything, but I’m just saying. Tampa had played well in 3 of 4 games before getting beat up by the Saints last week, 38-7. They played Miami tough (probably should have won), beat up on Green Bay (the 10 point win probably doesn’t tell the whole story) and were right there with the Panthers two weeks prior to that (they also got smoked 35-7 by the Patriots somewhere in-between there, but that was in England, what happen in England, well, sucks – just ask Avi from “Snatch”).  They’ve played solid football under rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and they can run the ball. That gets me excited.

The Falcons aren’t a double digit favorite team, as you can see by their 5-5 record, and their two wins by 13 or more points all season long. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers and Washington Redskins. Tampa has played 6 of their 10 games within 13 points of their opponent. Yeah, they have one win, sure, but a running game and a young passer with a couple solid receiving options – against the Falcons defense? – yeah, I like some points going up for the Bucs. I also like Tampa’s chances of slowing the Falcons offense with Turner out. Go Bucs!

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview

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Nevada Wolf Pack (+12) @ Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview: As I imagined, this line has moved in my favor. You can get the Wolf Pack at +14, and those extra two points could be very big.

Am I saying that the Wolf Pack are going to come in and down the Broncos perfect season? Are they going to clear up the BCS small school picture with a single HUGE upset over Boise State in Boise? In Boise? Boy, that’s tougher to call, but in a game that is often close (or at least has been over the last 2 seasons) I think the Wolf Pack have one hell of a chance to put a wrinkle in time.

First of all, let me give some credit to the Broncos. They are one hell of a team, and they can really move with any team in the Nation on both sides of the ball. They showed early in the season what they can do to an elite rushing attack like Oregon, and they’ve proved all season long that they know how to win, even when things don’t go there way. Boise can run the ball – they’ve out-rushed all but two opponents all season long, and they have one of the most accurate and efficient passers in all of college football, the stud lefty Kellen Moore. Moore has 33 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, and will almost certainly eclipse the 3000 yard mark in this game. Boise is grand.

But Nevada is coming in on one heck of a run. They’ve won 8 straight, covered six of those games, and out-rushed their opponents in every game, by 200 or more yards in 6 games. They can really run the ball. They have a great quarterback to their own right, a rushing and throwing elite athlete in Colin Kaepernick. Nevada has been getting closer and closer, and I think they give the Broncos a game in Boise.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Louisville Cardinals Free Pick

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Louisville Cardinals Free Pick: Tom Savage, the Rutgers Knights’ starting quarterback, easily had his worst performance of his career – but I’m not willing to think that’s going to be his new norm. The kid has all the intangibles to lead his team to victory on any given day, as he’s shown by winning all but two of the games he has started in his young career. He had 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions while completing around 60% of his passes prior to last game’s stinker against Syracuse. I first and foremost like him to bounce back.

Louisville isn’t good, not even mediocre. They have beaten just 4 teams this year, all of those teams unimpressive. They’ve played a couple close games, but without the talent and confidence, the Cardinals have really taken a hit this season. One thing they have going for themselves is a basically blank injury list. But if nobody’s injured on a team that has been pretty nonexistent all year long, is that a good thing? Maybe if the back-ups got a little taste they would show something?

The short of it is this, usually, when solid teams play their worst game of the season, they come back the next time out and play well. This is the boat that Rutgers is in, coming off a stinker against Syracuse, the Knights should be ready to win. That’s sports. That’s just the way it usually is.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick

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Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) @ Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick: Just as I imagined, this spread moved in my favor – but I’m thinking I don’t need those extra points – though 20 would be nice (and the spread is currently at 20.5 in 90% of the sports books) I just see this game being closer. The Illini have some elite players, and they were certainly expected to perform better than they did this season, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they have the athletes to make this a game.

Illinois has covered in three of their last four games, winning two of their last 3. They’ve played their best football of the season over the last 4 games, and Juice Williams and company are finally getting on track. A little late for a post season performance, sure, but this game is Illinois’ season, and it would put a nice finishing touch on a tough season if they could hand the Bearcats their first loss of the season.

Cincinnati has played quite a few close games lately. Against West Virginia, Connecticut, and Fresno State, they finished on top by a single score or less. They still have a quarterback dilemma (thought two stud quarterbacks seems like a good problem to have) and the questions surrounding who is going to play and when might still be sitting around for this solid team.

The Bearcats have a lot to look forward too, and sometimes, often times, teams in that situation get caught looking forward. If Illinois can hold the ball, keep it in their hands with some big conversions, I think they keep this game very close.

Fantasy Focus: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings

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Sorry for the quick intro (or you’re welcome, depending on what you think of introductions and/or my humor) but it’s Thanks Giving, I’m at the future in-laws, and well, I better slam this out asap or it’s trouble for me….

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Adrian Peterson– The match-up isn’t great (like Lions, Chiefs, or Bills) but AP does good work randomly.
2. Ricky Williams – I watched him run, and he’s very, very good. He meets the Bills this week. There you have it.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – The Titans can’t handle Larry. Not even with Matt Leinart, if Kurt sits this one out.
4. Randy Moss – I know the Saints D has been okay, but I have a feeling the Patriots will be scoring often.
5. Aaron Rodgers– The Packers love to pass, you can do that against the Lions as much as you want.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Wes Welker – We go PPR here, and there’s not more of a sure thing than Wes (maybe Reggie).
2. Joe Flacco – Most will sit him, against a Polamalu-less Steelers secondary, I like his chances.
3. Kellen Winslow – Against the Falcons, with no safeties that can guard him, I’ll put a TE in this list for the 1st time.
4. Donald Driver –He was picked much lower than Greg Jennings, but he’s outperformed him almost each week.
5. Sidney Rice –He’s back, and against Chicago, he makes a lot of sense.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – He’s not starting, Jim Mora is an idiot, but how can he not get 10-15 touches?
2. Michael Crabtree – Crab needs to have a big game for the 49ers, I think he’ll do well against the Jags.
3. Donnie Avery – Avery is a good play against a Hawks defense that loves to give up the big play.
4. LeSean McCoy– The Redskins aren’t as good against the run as they were earlier, if the Eagles want to win they’ll run.
5. Chris Chambers– Okay, Chris, obviously you are showing the Chargers what they’re missing, now play them!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte– Poor guy, he’s a good back, something is crushing him down like rocks. This time it’s the Vikings.
2. Steve Smith– Steve Smith minus Jake Delhomme > Derrelle Revis, but, Steve Smith + Jake Delhomme < Revis….
3. Rashard Mendenhall – I love Mendenhall, but I don’t love him against the Ravens, especially with Ben hurting.
4. Roy Williams – Well, I’m guessing Nnamdi will be guarding Austin, but I still don’t like Williams.
5. Chad Henne– Good match-up, but I think the Dolphins run to much to make Chad worth while.

***You may take the plunge, but I still think starting Michael Turner or Big Ben (especially against that hard hitting defense) is a tough chance to take. Watch out for those injuries!***

Week 12 Fantasy Rankings

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New York Giants vs Denver Broncos Pick & Preview

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New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7) Pick & Preview: The Giants have lost my trust, and while the Broncos have played like piss, and lost four straight headed into this game with New York – I actually think they are back to being the “prove we’re better than you think we are” team they started out the season as. After starting the season with some big wins and 6-0, face it, the Broncos started getting a lot of love. Orton was celebrated, Marshall was happy, and Josh McDaniels was the next best football mind stemming from the Bill Belichick tree. Funny what four weeks can do to an NFL franchise.

But like I said, this is where the Broncos are most comfortable. They are underdogs by a touchdown at home this week – and the public loves the visitor. I know the Broncos will use that as motivation this week, and I think that makes them a nice cover value here.

Plus, the Giants, it’s not like they’ve played solid ball of late either. After getting blasted by New Orleans and Philadelphia (also losing to Arizona and San Diego), the Giants just barely squeaked out a cover the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. It looked like they were scared to death, and playing too reserved down the stretch. That allowed the Falcons to get right back in it, in turn I lost some trust in a very talented Giants team.

Seven is too many.

Oakland Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Pick

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Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Pick: The Oakland Raiders aren’t a good football team, but they have a solid defense and they are a more efficient offense when JaMarcus Russell and his terrible tunnel vision is sitting on the bench or just lazily watching the game form the sideline. Is Bruce Gradkowski a good quarterback? I’m not going that far – but he’s always been accurate, and while he might not open up the field with a great deep arm or a strong 20-yard out, the guy can find open players and he makes quick decisions.

Those quick decisions will be very important against a Cowboys team that can bring pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders offensive line is healthier than it’s been in a while, and I think that will open up some running room for the trio of backs in Oakland silver and black.

I also don’t think and offense struggling as much as the Cowboys can give any opponent 14 points. Giving 14 points to the Raiders on National Television doesn’t seem like a good idea either, as they always seem to play close games in those circumstances.

I think Dallas getting just 48% of the bet in this one is proof how ridiculous this line is. These are the Cowboys, they often are on the other side of that public betting line, but not even the normal favorite fans are excited about the Cowboys giving up two touchdowns. And they shouldn’t be. Dallas may be 7-3, but they barely beat KC, and have played in a lot more close games than the final scores suggest. They also are coming off arguably their two worst offensive performances of the season in back-to-back weeks.

All things considered, I’ll take the two touchdowns. Even if they are dressed in silver and black.

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 11 Fantasy Football Grading

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What an unlikely week – I mean the Browns and Lions (not in that order) owned the top two fantasy spots in Week 11, that alone is straight nuts. The chances of that happening? Zero percent. Yes folks, magic, miracles, whatever you want to call it, the stuff happens. But one thing returned to normalcy – I stepped it up and won the writer rankings easily this last week. Ah…. This is how the rest of the fantasy week went down.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew– MJD was the object of the Bills defense, and Buffalo led most of the game so he just had a mediocre week, good for 12th RB this week, 17 fantasy points. B
2. Chris Johnson – “held in check” by the Texans, CJ had 151 rush yards, but that’s it. B-
3. Adrian Peterson – AP was limited by the Seahawks defense, no TDs for only the 2nd time this year. 13 fantasy points and a disappointing day for owners everywhere. C-
4. Peyton Manning – 19th amongst QBs, not a good pick by me, thought he’d do more. F
5. Ray Rice– The 8th RB in Week 11, Ray had 20 fantasy points – a solid day for Baltimore. B+

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Steve Smith (NYG) – 36th WR this week, not nearly the day I thought he’d have. C
2. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall had a nice day for the losing team. 6th overall. A
3. DeSean Jackson – 6th WR this week, got behind the defense for a long one. Again. A+
4. Ricky Williams –I said I’d start him if I had him. He was the top RB in Week 11. A+
5. Sidney Rice –5th WR this week. Stud. I’m glad Brett helped the coaches realize it. A+

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – 8 carries for just 9 yards, but scored. And caught 8 balls for 80. 5th RB. A+
2. Beanie Wells – Was 16th RB, finished ahead of Addai, Chris Johnson, and DeAngelo. A
3. Jeremy Maclin –33rd WR with 13 fantasy points. Decent day for J-Mac. B-
4. LeSean McCoy– 22nd RB this week for McCoy, not a bad #2 RB and a good flex. B+
5. Fred Jackson–Lynch got hurt, which helped Jackson, but still just the 30th RB. Not bad. B-

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– 19th RB, not a great number for Addai, but solid enough. C-
2. Derrick Mason– Derrick Mason had a day, making me look foolish. #9 WR… F
3. Jay Cutler – 19th quarterback overall, Jay had a nice interception to end it. Yep. B+
4. Roy Williams – Roy boy had 4 targets in Week 11, he converted 0 of those. Ha. A++
5. Matthew Stafford– And Matthew Stafford had the best day ever for a rookie. Yep. F—

***Look out for the injuries that went down this week, hope you didn’t start Michael “The Burner” Turner or the old guys with head problems – bless their hearts!!!

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Week 11 Fantasy Rankings
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Who did we miss in Week 11, from QB to DST, here’s a short list and their respective rankings.

QB – Matthew Stafford (1), Brady Quinn (2), and Brett Favre (3) were all missed by every top 5 list in the show. One doesn’t look like the other, that’s for sure. If you can predict the next time Stafford and Quinn will finish 1, 2 – you have my blessing to take over my job.

RB – 1-6 were ignored by everyone, they went like this… Ricky Williams, Jamal Charles, Kevin Smith, Jason Snelling, Justin Forsett, and Ryan Grant. I knew Ricky was going to have a nice week, and Kevin Smith had upside going against the Browns run-D, but Snelling against the Giants? Justin Forsett against the Vikings? Ryan Grant had a pretty damn good week against a run D that has been tough all year.

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WR – Wes Welker (1), Terrell Owens (2), Hines Ward (4), Anquan Boldin, (7) Greg Jennings (8), Derrick Mason (9), and Mike Sims-Walker (10) – I think Walker might be right at the top of wide receiver consistency lists – when he plays, and starts, he’s been down right solid. Mason was on my bench list this week, so it didn’t work out well for me. Greg Jennings had his best performance of the year. Anquan Boldin grabbed the vision of Kurt Warner while Kurt was on the field, Hines got back on track against the Chiefs secondary – and Wes Welker and TO had HUGE days at the top. We caught something like 35 balls while TO went for nearly 200 yards in a tough loss for the Bills.

TE – Kevin Boss (1), Heath Miller (2), Visanthe Shiancoe (5), and Brandon Petitgrew (6) – were the top 4 options that we left off the list. TE’s are tough, man, what can you say? Just like receivers, predicting their hot games are tough.

Def/ST – We pretty much sucked defensively this week, all picking high teen and some twenty numbers – of course we ranked our defenses very close with each other. The Patriots (1) Chargers (3) and Redskins (4) all missed our Top 5 lists. Damn us!

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick: The Packers might not play very consistently against good teams (well they do play consistent, as they consistently don’t live up to their projected talent expectations – but you know what I mean) but they do beat up on the tomato cans. Okay, they lost to Tampa Bay – but somebody was bound to lose to the Buccos, and Tampa has played decent football the last few weeks. Prior to that, the Packers were 3-0 against the league’s cellar dwellers, outscoring the Browns, Lions, and Rams 73-20 in those three games.

It might have to do with defensive pressure and the fact that all the tomato cans struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If you can’t disrupt what Aaron Rodgers does through the air, you don’t have a chance against the Pack. The Lions have been out-passed in 8 of their 10 games, and have given up an inordinate amount of passing touchdowns through 10 weeks of football. They even gave up 304 yards and 4 touchdowns to Brady Quinn and the Cleveland Browns – yeah, those Browns, the same Browns that probably didn’t have 4 passing touchdowns all season.

I actually like the Lions a little better with Culpepper in there, but that was before Matthew Stafford went all tough-guy on the Browns and came in to throw a game winning touchdown with no time on the clock despite the seperated shoulder that will likely keep him out of this week’s tilt with the Packers. It’s a Nation TV game, and the Packers are going to show up. Getting a short week should help the better team, the team with less injuries. That’s the Pack.