Monthly Archives: November 2009

Seattle Seahawks vs St. Louis Rams Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3) Pick & Preview: I think both these teams have been brutal, and I’ve been recorded saying (once or twice or twenty times) that St. Louis is one of the worst teams in football. But some how, some way, I’ve found enough that I like about them to go Rams as a small underdog at home. I’d say, “don’t ask me why” but that’s kind of my thing, I tell you why I do stuff – part of the deal. So here goes…

The Hawks are 0-5 on the road this year, and they generally stink away from the noisy home stadium in Seattle, even in solid seasons. They are even worse when they have to start playing football in the early game, 10:00 AM Pacific Time. That’s what they’ll be doing here.

Now, prior to a couple weeks ago in Detroit, the Hawks have played very well against the lower-case teams in the league, the rams, and  – well, that’s really the only bad team they whooped – ad that was in Week 1. They whooped the Jaguars, who played terrible that day in Seattle – but the Jags have been decent. They beat the Lions three week ago, 32-20, but Detroit was up early, and on top for most of that game. A late INT-TD gave them an undeserved cover. But they’ve learned how to try and play not to lose. One of the worst ways to win games in any sport.

The Hawks lack aggression, are predictable, and I think the Rams will sneak in and smack them in the mouth a little bit. St. Louis is bad, I hate them, their QB is a laughing matter unto himself, but what I’m seeing has St. Louis covering.

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles NFL Free Pick: The Redskins just aren’t as bad as you think. They are pretty useless offensively, no doubt, everything looks difficult for them when they move the ball – but a couple gamebreaking plays here and there, and what do you know, points are on the board. But that’s not why they are keeping themselves in games – not at all – they are in games because their defense is stout. The can stop the run okay (their numbers aren’t great, but that’s because they are always on the field and always playing from behind) but the can defend the pass with the best of them. They have a talented secondary, and since all the Eagles do is throw, I think Washington has a very good chance of staying close in this one.

This line has gone down a bit, it started at 10 and it’s down to 9, all this despite 60% of the public liking the home favorites. As you know, that makes me like my pick a little more – not because I care what Vegas thinks, but because it’s nice to think they see what I see.

Philadelphia beat Washington 27-17 earlier this year, and while the Eagles didn’t look that good in the process, the score actually wasn’t really that close. Jason Campbell threw a late touchdown with 1:38 left in the 4th quarter to make it a 10 point game.

The Eagles offense didn’t put up good numbers, and defensively they allowed some yards – the Redskins won time of possession (slightly) but the game got away because of 4 turnovers, 3 fumbles lost and one interception – the Eagles didn’t turn the ball over once. If Washington holds onto the ball, this game stays close in Philly.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

Posted on by

I’ve answered a lot of fantasy questions this week (ask me anything football any time at papaweimer50@hotmail.com), and thanks to everyone who reads my stuff and sends in the questions – but I only have a couple to share this time around, it is one of my favorite holidays you know, a great 4 day feast at my house where I’m never hungry one single second after about 11am on Thursday Morning. Many eating a little drinking and much football gets observed, just enough time without gravy on my fingers to post a couple questions and answers. Here it is –

no banners

Stan the Man writes, “HELP!!!! SOS…. Man, I don’t know what else I can do to breakout of my slump! My team is free-falling and I play the #1 team this week who has already received production from Rogers and Jacobs. I’m down 30 already, who should I pick at WR between (Hester, Massaquoi, and Gibson) and need 2 between (Forte, Thomas Jones, Roc, or Forsett). I have the Bengals, you like their chances? Thanks!”

First of all, if you’re down already, I’d go with Hester at WR, he’s the biggest chance you have at a huge game between the three guys that are left.

As for running back, Thomas Jones is your biggest sure thing, after that it’s a bit of a crap shoot. YOu could go with Forte, but the Bears rushing attack has sucked, and they play an one of the best run-d’s in the league – but last week the Seahawks saw their starting RB get 8 catches for 80 yards – so there’s some Forte upside in the passing game, though Forsett is probably a different type of receiver than Forte….

I think Forsett would be a great start against the Rams, if Jim Mora wasn’t a tool box, and/if Julius Jones wasn’t pronounced healthy and starting – even so, I think Forsett could have a good day, I just don’t know if he’s worth the risk. I’d say no.

I think I would go with Cartwright – he’s a solid runner, he’s always been a good receiver, and he’s the only thing the Redskins have in those short passing situations. Last week, against a good Dallas run-D, Cartwright caught 7 balls (most on the team) for 70 yards (most on the team) and had 63 rushing yards (most on the team) – or something like that – not sure exact numbers, but something similar to those. I think he could be a solid pick against an Eagles team that has been decent against the run. It’s between him and Forte for me, both could catch lots of balls, I think Cartwright has a better chance to get more rushing yardage, and more catches too – but Forte probably has the better chance to score a touchdown. Tough call, I think I’d go with Roc.

Other than that, it looks good. Hopefully you can make up some ground with your RBs and with Vernon Davis, and the Bengals look like a great start this week.

no banners

Dougie Fresca asks, “Would you start Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, Randy Moss or Wes Welker, John Carlson or Greg Olsen – thanks, sorry for the tough choices, my team is pretty solid and I already started some guys that didn’t do that well (Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson).”

Yeah, Dougie, on the bright side it looks like you’re in a good place. I would start Brady over Peyton – the Texans have a solid secondary and I think they make the Colts run it to beat them, plus, I like a Texans upset bid to possibly work it’s magic, and that would mean a better day from Tom – and Tom has been amazing this year (especially lately) – amazingly, he seems to be going under the radar a bit, even though he’s Tom freaking Brady.

I would start Randy Moss over Welker for sure if it was a non PPR, and in a basic coin toss for a PPR league, I think the 51% chance of Moss having the better day wins out, he’s more of a big play touch down guy, and I think that’s enough to make him the guy. Though I would have gone Wes over Greg or Calvin, but that’s obviously an easy call to make now. We’ll see how it works out.

I would go with Greg Olsen over John Carslon. The Vikings give up plenty of points to opposing tight ends, and Lucky thinks the Bears have a chance to get right up there all close like with the Vikings this week – Olsen will play a huge role if that comes true. Good luck for the rest of the week!

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) Pick: I got this game at 7, and I must say that’s a lot sexier than 7.5. but even at the number you’re getting today. 7.5, the Jackets look like a solid bet to me. I see that Georgia makes their home in the famous SEC, the home of Champions and bullies and the greatest college football teams to ever play the game, not to mention the single most complete college football leader in the storied history of the sport, one Tim Tebow – but I still like the Techies’ chances. So, SEC, you’ve got nothing on me!

This Georgia Team got beat by Kentucky last week, at home no less. They got whipped by all the top ranked teams they’ve played, even Tennessee handed them a 45-19 loss. The Yellow Jackets have only had trouble with teams that can really throw the ball or are just flat out good. They lost to Miami when Jacory Harris was lighting the world on fire, they won by just 5 over Florida State as Casey Ponder chewed up their secondary, and Wake Forrest gave them trouble as Riley Skinner found his game. But Georgia doesn’t have that. Sure, they have some high yardage numbers, and Joe Cox has thrown 21 touchdowns, but the Bulldogs are hardly an elite passing team.

Georgia also gets smoked when they get out-rushed. Florida out-rushed them. Tennessee out-rused them, and so did LSU – all teams beat and covered against the Bulldogs. In fact, the only game they won while getting out-rushed was against South Carolina, by 7 yards, and even then the Gamecocks covered the spread.

Yeah, I like one of the best rushing attacks in college football – the Yellow Jackets by a touchdown.

Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Free Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Florida State Seminoles (+23) @ Florida Gators Free Football Pick: Listen, I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t hear about Christian Ponder’s absense until much to late, and now it all makes sense. I go through a lot of college football (and pro football) games, among other sports, and every once in a while I’ll miss a big huge thing like Christian Ponder is out for the season, and was out last game as well, a game where back-up QB E.J. Manuel threw 3 interceptions to the Maryland Terrapins. Yeah, tough deal. But that being said, I still think the Seminoles have a chance. I wouldn’t put much on this line, without their leader at Q, times could go south quick for the Seminoles – but the Gators haven’t been the blow-out type this season, and 23 points is a lot.

Florida State has given up a ton of points, no doubt, but without their offense slanging the ball all over the field, I think this thing slows down a little bit (plus Florida likes to control the ball) and a few less points get scored because of it. I also know that the Gators have three wins by 24 points or more this season, Kentucky, Troy, and Florida International – big whoop.

FSU hasn’t had a great year, and even with great numbers for their QB, they’ve just barely gotten over .500 – but they have the athletes to compete with anyone, and even without Ponder, I think they are a decent bet at the +24.5 they are at most books right now.

Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction

Posted on by

no banners

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction: I don’t know what Vegas sees in this game, and like always, that kind of worries me. I’ve been right before, and I’ve been wrong, but for some reason the times I’ve been wrong always sit with me a little longer. Maybe it’s because when I’m right, I knew I was right, and when I’m wrong, shoot, I knew I was right and somewhere along the line I went and got tricked. I don’t think that’s happening this time, but shoot, I never do. Here’s why I like the Wildcats to do damage to the Sun Devils.

Arizona State has beaten the Wildcats 3 of the last 4 meetings, but listen, the Wildcats just became a solid team last season – they’re still pretty good, and ASU still isn’t. I’m not letting recent history sway me away from the right pick here, and since Arizona’s good team beat the Sun Devils last year, I’m feeling pretty good about it.

What else, Arizona State is ridden with “out for season”, “out indefinitely”, “questionables” and “probables” while the Wildcats only have two recent injuries, and both guys are questionable to play this Saturday – against their rival, I think they will. The Sun Devils have also lost each of their last 5 and their only Pac-10 wins come against the Washington schools – and lets be honest – they hardly count.

Arizona has had a good year, they’ve only lost 4 games and all were close. They can run the ball and play good defense. I don’t think the Sun Devils put up much of a fight.

New Mexico Lobos vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick & Preview: This game opened at 41, and I thought that was a little high – at three popular sports books you can get this game at +45, and that’s a big point and a half – it moves the margin up and over the largest margin of victory that the Horned Frogs have had all season. What else? The Lobos haven’t lost by 40 points all season long.

The Lobos may be 1-10, obviously they aren’t a good football team, but that record doesn’t mean they can’t cover a spread of magnanimous proportions such as this. The Lobos lost by just 5 to BYU and beat Colorado State last week. In each of the last 9 meetings, the final score hasn’t approached 45 points. New Mexico has played their best football latel – that also helps. What else? There’s nothing for the Lobos to lose –  they have had a terrible season, and if they can make a game of it against the highly ranked Horned Frogs, it would be the highlight of their season. That’s something, I’m telling you – it’s probably not worth an upset, but it’s certainly worth 40+ points.

This line is inflated by 10 points. TCU has never been favored by more than 20 points in this match-up, and not only that, but the spread hasn’t been in double digits in any of the last 8 years. None. The Lobos record is bad, but a lot of things can go into that. New Mexico isn’t this bad.

Clemson Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks NCAA Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) NCAA Pick: Clemson has owned the Gamecocks over the last 7 years, winning 6 of their last 7 meetings, and covering 6 of the last 8 times these two have played. Whether it’s been on the road or at home, the Tigers have flexed their in-state muscle.

But I think this game will be different. It’s not what the Gamecocks have done, but who they’ve played – they are ready for a game against the Tigers. Over the last five weeks of games the Gamecocks have played Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Now Vandy might not have much to offer, and Tennessee hasn’t won but a handful of games, but those other three are legit, and two of those are probably the best two teams in the Nation. Clemson has one hell of a defensive line, and that has given opposing offenses trouble all year long, but I know South Carolina has seen that kind of defensive front a couple times this year, and that makes me think they’ll be ready for the Tigers.

Getting three points at home is another plus for me here. Getting two weeks to prepare for Clemson is just another bonus. One might say that Clemson finally getting their act together and winning 6 straight coming in is a sign of trouble for South Carolina – but I’d have it no other way. Winning streaks end – and I’m willing to take a South Carolina team that went toe-to-toe with Florida two weeks ago, even though they’ve lost 4 of their 5. They are 5-1 at home, and obviously play their best football there.

Washington State Cougars vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-24) Free Pick: Listen, I have a hard time giving the Huskies 24 points, against almost anyone, but not so much the worst team in college football. Maybe I’m being a little hard on the Cougars from Washington State, I mean, I know a couple kids on the team, and they are good guys, they just can’t compete with the rest of the Pac-10. I think they might have 3 wins if they played in the Western South Pacific Poison Ivy League – but they haven’t proven they can play with anyone in the Pac-10. And I can’t think that this huge rivalry game, the famous Apple Cup, will bring them all the way from doormat to competitive team.

But they give up 39.3 points per game, not because they wouldn’t give up more, but because the game is only so long, and when teams rarely score in the 4th quarter because they are just trying to finish the game, it’s hard to score much more than 40. The Cougars have given up at least 40 points in their last 5 games. I’ve hear of high school teams getting done in like that, but a Pac-10 team? Here’s the thing, the Cougars might be petitioning to get into that WSPPIL that I was talking about earlier, are they really Pac-10-ish? Every other team in the league is competitive – the closest Pac-10 game the Cougars have played was against Arizona State – they lost by just 13 with a late 4th quarter score – amazing game for them.

I know the Cougars have won 4 of their last 5, and are currently on their longest winning streak over the Huskies(2 games), and I know the Huskies have lost each of thier last 4 games, getting blown out in two, but at least they’ve competed all year long. They’ve blown games on the field, they’ve blown games on the sidelines, but they’ve played and hung in against some good teams, and I think they blow out the Cougars – somewhere in the 42-13 range – and that’s enough for a cover. The Dawgs win and they win BIG!

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview: Let me start by saying I think these two teams are way more similar than their records suggest. One is 10-0, the other 5-5, yet I think the Colts are just 3-7 points better than the Texans – but 3 points, and the Peyton Manning factor, that has me on the Colts side once again. I know this Colts team isn’t 10-0 worthy, they’ve needed some help along the way – but they are 10-0, and if I can’t find a better reason than “they should probably lose one of these days, why not this week” then I’m just going to go ahead and keep betting them if the spread isn’t too grand. 3 is never too much….

The Colts/Texans game has been a close affair in 5 of the last 6 meetings – but the Colts have won the last 5. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS this year, and has basically dominated against the spread while traveling – 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Texans haven’t been great at home, and with even less of a commitment to the run (and the ball in Steve Slaton’s hands less than earlier this year) I don’t think the Texans will take advantage of that leaky Colts run D.

I think this game is going to come right down to it, maybe even the Colts down 3 with a couple minutes left in the game – but even then, I think I’d buck the odds and go with Peyton – the guy has IT.