theRUNDOWN: Week 8

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. Atlanta: I think the Eagles will have some trouble with the Falcons, but I like McNabb to throw for many yards and a couple scores.

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Detroit: Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. Clinton’s dominating the league and he gets to pick on the Lions this weekend. I don’t think he’ll get quite as many looks, but two touchdowns in this one is what I’m looking for.

RB: Thomas Jones vs. Kansas City: Jones isn’t the best back in the league, but I have to like him against the Chieftons. The Jets always try to establish the run and it won’t take much trying against KC.

FLEX: Steve Slaton vs. Cincinnati: I love Slaton’s game, but he needs to continue to be involved in the passing game, the kid is filthy in space.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Carolina: People say the Panthers are a tough match-up, well I like the Cardinals to be throwing a lot on Sunday. I like Fitz to catch a few of those and put up some points in Carolina.

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cincinnati: Johnson is a beast. One of the dirtiest most sure thing receivers in the game. Plus, despite the rankings, I like this match-up.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: Bad defense, great player, good quarterback – touchdowns. We’ll see, but the odds look to be in my favor.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. St. Louis: I think the Rams have gotten a little better defensively, and I think that’s good for Gostkowski. A couple more 3rd down stops means a couple more field goals.

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland: All the Raiders can do consistently is run. The Ravens dominate opposing rushing attacks. Duh on this one.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrad: DG plays at home against Cleveland. The numbers don’t look great, Cleveland is solid against the pass and Garrard has been less than mediocre so far this season – still, I like his chances this week. Call it a hunch. Ha.

Jason Campbell: Great match-up this week for Campbell. If handing it to Clinton wasn’t so easy, he’d get even more fantasy points. Still, he’s been good enough for a start here.

LenDale White: I don’t think Bob Sanders is playing in which case the Titans will be getting plenty of rushing opportunities. Chris Johnson is the better back, no doubt in my mind, but LenDale is still a nice start this week against the Colts.

Jamal Lewis: Yep, I like this horse. Jamal runs hard, and his numbers don’t show how well he’s been carrying the rock this year. I like him against the Jags.

Vincent Jackson: “Play him while he’s hot.” I had him here last week, and even though the game is in England, which means lots of traveling and probably less scoring, I don’t think Chambers is playing which makes Jackson the #1. That’s a good thing against the Aint’s secondary.

Josh Morgan: I’m not sure who’s playing QB for San Francisco, I’m not sure who’s the #1 receiver for the 49ers, but I do know that Mike Martz loves Morgan, and that should be enough for a bye week sleeper fill in this week.

Billy Miller: If you need a TE then you can take a shot with Billy. He gets looks. Drew seems to like him, and there’s a chance Shockey either doesn’t play or is limited. Sounds like a play to me, and to throw a nice hanging slider in there – the Chargers secondary leaves something to be desired.

New York Jets: You bet, Chiefs are on the road, defense is in my sleeper slot – it’s that easy.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Matt Cassel: I know he had a nice game last week, but the Rams are bringing many pressures since Little came back – I think Matt gets sacked a lot and becomes turnover prone.

Mewelde Moore: I know Moore was the hot pick up this week, and last, but I don’t see why. He won’t do much this week, I’m almost sure of that, and Parker will be back soon.

Dominic Rhodes: He did well last week, looking good filling in for Joseph Addai. This week he gets to play the Titans… Haha, “gets”, lucky guy. Don’t start him this week unless you are really desperate.

Roddy White: I think Atlanta does some good things through the air, but not via Roddy. He’ll have trouble matching up with some tough corners in Philly.

Five for Friday

I know my uncle does the good starts bad starts “theRUNDOWN” action, but this week I have some solid plays that you might be steering clear of. Just remember, just because there’s a tough match-up doesn’t mean you should ignore your good players – it also means that you might be starting a lesser option (ie Thomas Jones) over a better player (ie Michael Turner) to get the best chance of big points. Here’s my Top 5 “interesting” starts of the week. 

Matt Schaub is going up against the 6th ranked pass defense, but that doesn’t mean you should start him. In fact, I’d start him over Brett Favre and a bunch of quarterbacks ranked higher than Matty. Schaub should do work against the Bengals, and I don’t expect him to slow down at all this week. Andre Johnson plays like a big brother beasting opposing corner backs, and I see that trend continuing against the youngsters manning the corner in Cincinnati. 

Jeff Garcia is playing at Dallas. Dallas is in shambles and while I wouldn’t shoot for Garcia many weeks, I think his numbers against the Cowboys should be solid. I think Dallas will play better against the run, but Garcia and the Bucs should find plenty of room in Dallas’s secondary. Garcia makes plays with his feet, and that should be on display this week in Dallas. 

Michael Turner plays a top rated run defense when the Eagles host the Falcons this week, and most people are resting Turner thinking he’ll get shut down like he has recently against very good run defenses. Not to fast on labeling the Eagles stout against the run, though. See, Philly gave up about 150 to Portis and 101 to Gore (in limited rushes) in back to back weeks. Turner runs hard, and Philly’s front line is undersized. Maybe this isn’t such a bad match-up after all. 

I see some things out there saying, “Don’t start Cotchery against the Chiefs” and I can’t seem to figure it out. Sure, the Jets will probably run twice as much as they pass, but Brett takes chances, it’s just part of his game. It doesn’t look like Coles will be playing this week, and Cotchery is the better receiver anyway. All things aside, I’d bet Cotchery gets about 7 balls for 80+ yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Those are start him numbers to me. 

Nate Washington against the Giants. Santonio Holmes might be suspended, and Nate is a good bet to get 5 or 6 looks even if he doesn’t start. Mewelde Moore and the Steeler running game won’t be great this week and that means Big Ben will have to pass. I like Washington’s size and Ben’s confidence going to him in and near the red zone. I think he’s a solid start this week, where most people aren’t even thinking about getting him close to roster spot, let alone a starting lineup. Swim against the flow!

NCAA DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Free Picks: Week 9

It looks like I’m favoring the road teams in these ones – see if we cant’ do work with this group of covers. 

Boston College @ North Carolina (-3): Analysis in my Free Picks section. 

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies (+2.5): I think this is the game that Cincinnati’s quarterbacking injuries comes back to haunt them. The Huskies are solid, they are playing at home, and while they are hurting at quarterback as well, I think they will win the rushing battle and this game. 

Central Michigan Chippewas (-4) @ Toledo: CMU QB Dan LeFevour is my hero and I will give him the nod in this one. He played a heck of a game last week against Western Michigan and I like the Chipps to build on that momentum. Toledo beat Michigan but I’ll say it just one more time – so what?

Fresno State Bulldogs (-14) @ Utah State Aggies: I’ll warn you that somewhere over 70% of the public is on the Bulldogs here and the lines are still moving up and away. Maybe it’s not as easy as I see, but even with the Bulldogs’ troubles, Utah State is this bad. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+12.5) @ Texas Longhorns: I would and am staying away from this game – but if you must have my slight leaning opinion, I’ll take the underdogs +12.5. Oklahoma State looks like they have the make-up to at least stay close to Texas, and a touchdown and a field goal behind still wins them this one. Texas has played amazing football and I hate to bet against them again (they’ve taken it to me a couple weeks in a row now), but I’ll take the dog – Plus, I’m a man, so I have something in common with the Cowboys head coach – yhatzee!

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ California Golden Bears: In conference against non-Washington Pac 10 teams I just can’t take the Cal Bears as huge favorites. Everyone in this conference (sans WA Schools and USC) are pretty even – UCLA stays close in this one. 

South Florida (-4) @ Louisville: Analysis in my Free Picks section.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles are talented, sure, but the Hokies are too, and they’re coached better. I like the Hokies to keep the upset happy ACC conference fully intact this week. 

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies (-7.5): The Huskies have three losses, all to very solid teams. They recently beat the Miami of Ohio team that Bowling Green just lost to. I know that doesn’t mean much, but I like NIU – they are solid. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish has played mistake free football, if he keeps that up his Huskies should win by a couple scores. 

New Mexico State Aggies (-12.5) @ Idaho Vandals: Yes sir, the Vandals are even this bad. Since they are very close, I’m going to go ahead and link them into my “always bet against Washington sports” philosophy. We’ll see how that works out. 

Mississippi Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5): Both of these teams make a gaggle of mistakes just about every time they step foot on the field. They are both 3-4 and the loser of this one likely sits out the bowl season (or so that’s how I see it). One thing I like about the home team here, their 4 losses this season come at the hands of Alabama, Florida, Texas, and a 1 point loss to Kentucky. Maybe they aren’t as bad as I thought they were. I’ll take them here. 

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Monroe (+2.5): In conference home dog – I’ll take it. I like UL’s signal caller, that’s enough for me to lean on the home dogs here. 

Kentucky (+26) @ Florida: Analysis in my Free Picks section.

Nevada Wolfpacks @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+3.5): Hawaii is at home against a Nevada team that has 4 unimpressive wins over unimpressive opponents. I’ll take Hawaii. They look to be getting it together a little behind their new coach.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 9

Eight more picks for Week 9’s action – here they are… 

Boston College Eagles @ North Carolina Tar Heels (-3): You know my love affair with unranked favorites over ranked opponents – lets do it again this week. I know the Heels are without their starting quarterback and their stud receiver, but I like them against a weak Boston College team. 

Kentucky Wildcats (+26) @ Florida Gators: The Wildcats aren’t as good as the Gators, but just as they proved against Alabama, the nearness of ability is closer than three touchdowns. I like Kentucky at +26. I know they have a bunch of injuries, but the Gators know that too, and playing a tough opponent at home when they have a bunch of injuries doesn’t get you up for the game. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-2) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: I know the history here. I know the Nittany Lions haven’t won at Ohio State in my lifetime (does that date me?) – but I’m not so sure that means jack right now. The Lions have really impressed me. They’ve started big and finished big, they’ve started slow and finished strong – they are just a talented and physical football team that should give Ohio State trouble. I never thought I’d see the Buckeyes as home dogs, but I’m betting against them in this big one. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10) @ Washington Huskies: The only thing about this game is that UW needs this win for any kind of respect for the season. And I know Ty Willingham has a lot riding on this one because he was booted early from the Irish. But I almost think Notre Dame can find a lot to play for here with the emotional belief that many people think “this is Ty’s team he recruited”. That’s a joke, but it has been said. The Huskies have won of the Top 10 worst defenses in all the land. The Irish should find lots of room in UW’s secondary. 

Oklahoma Sooners (+18.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: I know, I know, don’t bet big road favorites in conference. I would like to abide by that rule except this exception is exceptionally exciting to me. Oh, EEEE – that’s close to the mark of the literary devil, luckily I’m just writing sports picks and I do what I want anyway. Yhatzee. 

Wyoming Cowboys @ TCU Horned Frogs (-30): Gotta take the Frogs here – they are a top 15 team in the country and only a handful are worse than the Cowboys. 41-3…

South Florida Bulls (-3) @ Louisville Cardinals: I don’t know, something about Louisville’s wins that just doesn’t get me on their side. The Bulls beat Kansas and Central Florida, and they almost took down Pitt. All 3 of those teams are better than Louisville’s 4 wins put together. I’ll take an in conference road dog again, blimey! 

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks (-1): Maybe I’m crazy but I like the Jayhawks here because they are at home and promise a more balanced attack and defensive game plan than the Raiders. That being said, this is a TT game and anything can happen. This is my smallest play of the week, but a play nonetheless.

Three for Thursday

I thought I’d give you guys three match-ups that look bad or good, but should actually produce well (or poorly) this week. Basically, you think something but WATCH-OUT!!! It might be different than you’d expect. 

1. Michael Turner hasn’t had good days against good rushing defenses, and a while back the Eagles were rated as the top run stuffing group in the business. And they’re still highly rated, but something I’ve recognized has given me new hope for starting Mike this week in Philly. The Eagles started off hot against the run, sure, but they gave up 145 yards to Clinton Portis, and 101 yards to Frank Gore. The Falcons commit to the run and Turner might be okay pounding the ball at Philly’s relatively undersized defense. We’ll see, but I wouldn’t sit Mike just because he’s playing the Guls. 

2. You might think St. Louis is a good time to start Matt Cassel – don’t be so sure. The Rams haven’t had a great season, but they’ve won two straight games, and Leonard Little’s return makes them a lot better defensively. Now offenses will have to pay a lot of attention to him, and against an offense that has allowed plenty of sacks this year, and a quarterback that holds the ball a little too long, in a game the Pats are supposed to win – well, I kind of like Matt to have a bad game this week. Don’t get caught off guard. 

3. Brandon Jacobs, a must start? I’m not sold. The Steelers did give up 67 yards to Le’Ron McClain, and he is the closest thing to what the Steelers will be facing with Jacobs, but Le”Ron is also the leading rusher against the Steelers this season. That’s right, not a single back has eclipsed the 67 yards gained by McClain. And it’s not like PIttsburgh has played bad backs. Steve Slaton has been good this year, he didn’t hit the 50 yard mark in Week 1 – Jamal Lewis was in the 30s in Week 2, Week 3 had Correll Buckhalter and the Eagels ground game get 43 yards – Week 4 was McClain’s 67 – Week 5 saw Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew rush for 26 yards on 15 carries, and Week 6 saw Cedric Benson get 52 yards in a blowout. I know the Giants run the ball well, but I can’t see Jacobs being a stud this week – in fact, I would probably rather start Sammy Morris or even Cedric Benson. Scratch that last one, but you see what I’m getting at.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 7

Push me on a swing. Push me in the water. Push me in front of a train, just don’t push me in sports. I’ll tell you, coming out of a week even is almost as bad as losing. You don’t get to be right, but you don’t get the glory of being tricked either. Just flat out .500. This is how my .500 week held on tight. 

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.” Well 34-7 is one play away from a shut-out, and the cover was just as easy as I could have imagined. I hope you followed me on this freebee. 

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): (WINNER) The Bills roughed up the Chargers offensive line, holding San Diego’s star running back (LT) to just 41 yards rushing on 14 carries. Fred Jackson (9 for 33) and Marshawn Lynch (19 for 70) rushed for over 100 yards and Trent Edwards picked apart the Chargers secondary completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards. The Bills were just tougher and the Chargers looked like they played tired. Weird. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WINNER) “I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.” But it took a lot of Viking mistakes to finish themselves off, that’s for sure. Minnesota probably should have won this game, but they couldn’t punt, they had penalties, they fumbled, and they were just out of sorts. These teams put up 80+ points of offense on Sunday, odd thing coming from two offenses that don’t usually spark up the scoreboard. The Bears won though, and I’ll take it. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) “The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope.” I’d say the score, 38-10, kind of explains what I was saying here. The Steelers did anything they wanted, and Mewelde Moore ran like Lola on Sunday. Big win here. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): (LOSS) I liked the Dolphins to match the Ravens physicality – I apparently was wrong to like that. Ray Lewis and his helmeted avengers put a stop to that wildcat offense and took advantage of some Dolphin turnovers – it’s tough to lose the ones you like, but that was the case here. You never feel quite as bad when the chick that you don’t really like dumps you, right, but when the hot brunette that does that thing with her tongue dumps you – well, you get the picture. No? Right, that’s because I’m being obtuse. Anyway, onward march! 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (WINNER) “Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.” I’m telling you, take my advice on these Panthers for the rest of the season – if they can run the ball effectively, they are a top notch team. Just that threat opens up so many things for them, gives the defense more rest, and there probably isn’t a team they can’t beat when running the ball. Cap them like that and you’ll win some money. 

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): (WINNER) “Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.” Right? You bet – I have hit these Giants and these 49ers right on the head. The Giants won by 12, and it was just enough to cover, but it was closer than you expected. Why’d the Niners lose? Oh, I know, Mike Martz dropped O’Sully back 35 times, he only got to throw 28 times, and that was still enough for 2 picks. The other times he dropped back? Sacks galore and 4 fumbles, all lost. Keep it up Mr. Martz, opponents can’t thank you enough. Jackass. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS) Well, the Raiders won. I don’t know how this happened. The Jets needed to go to Thomas Jones even more. Oakland played better D, and maybe they’ve found something. No, I doubt it. 

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: (LOSER) Shame on me for taking this disfunctional family – well, at least I get to watch this bad reality TV show – who’s next on “The Football team is WRONG?” – unbelievable, these guys. Steven Jackson had enough of my “running like Shaunna Alexander” comments, and he went berserk on Cowboy defenders. What to think of this? Hmmmm…. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSER) I really took this one in the face. Green Bay rocked Peyton’s world with confusing tactics and pressure. Do the Colts suck or what? I can’t quite figure them out. 

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): (LOSS) Welcome to the bad-beat club. The Lions got obliterated to start this game out, and the Texans just held on tight. It almost cost them, but it did cost me. This was the first of two tough ones I should have won. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): (LOSS)  This one makes me puke a little just thinking about it. The Hawks didn’t have 100 yards of offense midway through the 4th quarter. Wallace had about 30 yards passing and Julius Jones was at about 12 yards – both were leading their teams in the respective categories. But the Bucs were fine with “just winning” and that thinking got me a loss as the Bucs won by 10. DAMN IT!!! 

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown.” This game was gross and at one point the Derek Anderson was 4 of 16 passing. Anderson had completed just as many passes as Braylon Edwards had dropped. Still, the Browns cover and I win. Weird. 

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: (LOSS) I was wrong – as it turned out, some early turnovers killed anything the Broncos tried to build up and Sammy Morris showed how really bad the Broncos front 7 is. Do you think they’ll be better or worse without Champ and Boss Bailey? Sign me up for any runner playing them from here on out. And the Pats – are they going to start being more consistent or is it coin flipping time?

All that leaves me at .500 for the week – piss. I’ll take it like a man.

One For Wednesday

If you think Thomas Jones’ recent yardage outputs are ridiculous and not an indication of the rest of his season, think again. The muscle man is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and his schedule over the rest of the season is generous. This week he plays the Kansas City Chiefs. Joke. He also plays (over the last 10 weeks) the Rams, the Patriots, the Broncos, the 49ers, and the Seahawks. Having their NFC games against the West is definitely beneficial for Thomas. What else? Well, the man has gotten at least 19 touches in all but one game this season. The Jets do their best to establish him on the ground. WIth only 3 touchdowns so far, he hasn’t become a great goal line threat, but he is still a ncie match-up against mediocre defenses. With good match-ups down the line, he’ll be a nice guy to keep around.

NFL Free Picks: Week 8

7-7 last week, and that looks like a push to me. You all know how I love pushes – ugh. Anyway, I didn’t lose any ground in the old win loss column, so things could have been worse. So far I have 13 games this week (Cowboys line not out yet) – check out the goods in my NFL Free Picks for Week 8. Good luck to all! 

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Maybe the books know something I don’t. Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they played last week, and the Bucs let a bad Seahawk team hang around and they ended up losing that game ATS – still, no Tony Romo, no defensive backs, a defense that is playing soft – I think Tampa does enough against Brad Johnson to make it another tough day for America’s Team. 

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: Detroit lost by less than a touchdown in each of their last two ball games, and should have beat the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 6 – still, I don’t think they match up well with the Redskins, as Washington should run all over Detroit. Here’s some food for bet, the Lions are 0-2 at home, giving up 48 points to the Packers and losing 34-7 against the Bears.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home. 

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy. I don’t know what to think of the Patriots “one good, one bad” game situation they’ve been rocking, but they are on cue to play a bad one. That doesn’t mean jack to me, though, and this team is still a solid group. I just think all of their injuries start to catch up to them this week against the Rams. Tough call, but I’ll take the Rams with a little more than a TD. 

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): I like 12.5 I guess. Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated. I don’t like the Chiefs without Larry Johnson (and who knows what’s happening there), Damon Huard (out), Brody Croyle (out), or even completely healthy. I think Thomas Jones will run all over the Chiefs and Tyler Thigpen must not be that great because the Chiefs seem to be exhausting all sporting options to pick up another quarterback. It’s never good to throw in a guy that hasn’t seen a playbook for your team, even if it’s a guy like Daunte Culpepper that is better than every single guy you’ve started all year long. Weird. J E T S – winners. 

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles haven’t won coming off a bye week since the ’04-’05 season. The Falcons can run the ball well and while the Eagles started off stingy against the run, they allowed 145 yards to Clinton Portis and 101 yards to Frank Gore – both having nice yards per carry. I don’t think Turner will burn the Eagles for big yardage, but he’ll do enough to keep Atlanta close, and remember, the Falcons are coming off of two weeks to prepare for Philly as well, and they’re a huge dog – they’ll need some help to win, but I think this will be close. 

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): The owners fined Winslow 250 grand for questioning the staph infections in the organization over the past few seasons. What a joke. The rest of the players have to think that’s a joke. The rest of the players also have to think that their season is on the line and that sitting one of their best offensive players is down right stupid. They’ve played one good game all season. Without all the crap going on with Cleveland, I might like them to cover here, but the Jags are coming off a bye and they’ve won 3 straight coming off a break. The Jags are without Matt Jones, but with Jerry Porter getting two weeks to get healthy, they might not be losing anything at all. Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one. 

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): The Steelers in Pittsburgh seems like a slam dunk at -2.5, yes, even against your World Champion New York Giants. Honestly, I think the Giants have played just as many mediocre to bad games as they have good games. Think about it – they couldn’t put away the Redskins in week 1, settling for field goals too often (mediocre). They played a terrible Rams team in Week 2, so you can’t tell much there. They barely beat the Bengals in OT – (mediocre to bad). They killed a terribly lost Seattle team, but played very well there. They lost to Cleveland in a laugher (bad). They let San Francisco hang around all day, even though the Niners were turnover machines (mediocre). Maybe they aren’t a shoe in for back to back titles after all, huh? I like Pittsburgh to show us that one more time this weekend. 

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): You’ve found my weak spot, Mike Singletary. That guy is my favorite player of all time – bar none. I think his intensity, honestly, and respect from his players gets the 49ers going in Week 8. They aren’t great, and they won’t be all year long, but they are going up against the Hawks in his first game as the main guy, and that’s enough for me. Seattle is brutal. Without a couple broken play runs late last week in Tampa, they would have been under 100 yards of offense – that’s a joke. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): The Titans should lose one coming up here, but I don’t think Bob Sanders is coming back this week – that pretty much ends the Colts hopes. Betting against Peyton Manning as more than a field goal favorite seems like a poor move, but I’m not betting against him. I’m betting against his offensive lines ability to slow the Titans rush and I’m definitely betting against the Colts defensive front shutting down the Titans run. I think 20 will win this one, and Tennessee can get that in their sleep against this Colts defense – just run the rock.

Ten For Tuesday

Okay, it’s late tuesday and I want to get a few guys out there for you to either think about, get right now, or let someone else dabble with – here they go, more than 10, but I’ve never heard anyone argue that I’m giving you too much for your buck…

Think about…

Javon Walker: This guy has had lots of good games in the past, has a lot of talent, and if he can stay healthy he has a good opportunity with defenses paying a lot of attention to the run game. He looks to be getting it together mentally. 

Mewelde Moore: I’m still not convinced that Moore is going to be a sure thing, and Willie might be back soon, but there is no doubt that Pittsburgh likes to run the ball and I’ve always seen Moore as a back that can do solid work. He’s no sure thing, but if you need help – go for it. 

Vishante Shiancoe: I like this guy. He plays for a team that doesn’t do a lot of work through the air, but he’s had a few good games and there’s a decent chance he’s better than the TE you have right now. He’s always been talented. 

Harry Douglas: This kid just gets open. He’s a great compliment to Roddy White. I don’t know if he’ll be consistent enough, but if he’s on your keeper league waiver wire I think you’ll be very happy you grabbed him. 

Marty Booker: Books is getting a little long in the tooth, sure, but Bears opponents go after the run hard, and if Hester is out for a while I think Booker could benefit from Kyle Orton’s air attack. Launch. Still, he’s no sure thing to be a great option. 

Brandon Lloyd: Almost a sure thing to be healthy coming off a bye, and the Bears loved him in the preseason and he played well in the beginning of the year. I’m just saying. People seem to forget about guys that didn’t do great last week. 

Kevin Faulk: He might get picked up less than Green Ellis, but I think he’s the better bet to get more fantasy points – but we’ll see – neither is a great pick up. 

Go Get Them…

Josh Morgan: I liked him early, I liked him just before the season, I like him now that he’s starting. The 49ers need to throw less to win, Mike Martz doesn’t see it that way, that’s good for Morgan owners – go get him. 

Ryan Torrain: I think this is the last week you can possibly get him for free – stash him, thank me later. 

Deuce McAllister: For two to four weeks I like the big cat. Pierre Thomas too, but I’ll take Deuce over Thomas. 

 

Leave Them Alone…

Tyler Thigpen: There’s a reason the Chiefs are trying out Boomer, Steve Young, and Warren Moon on Wednesday…

Martellus Bennett: TE playing behind Jason Witten – no thanks. 

Ben-Jarvis Green Ellis: I don’t know, I’m putting him down just because someone has to run the ball for the Pats while Matt Cassel is at the helm. Still, Lamont will likely come back soon and chances are Green Ellis won’t be a decent option, I even think Sammy is solid, so this would only be a last resort pickup. I’d pass on him if you have another option. Like Deuce.

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 8

Here goes something… 6-4 with my Free NCAA Picks for Week 8, and how about my DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Package Picks? Well, just 6-5, but that moves me 3 games up on the season – and in a tough week I’ll take that for sure. 

LSU Tigers (-3) @ South Carolina: (WINNER) “You bet – free money.” Closer than I thought, but free money comes in with a winner – you have to like that. 

Missouri Tigers (+6) @ Texas Longhorns: (LOSS) “Maybe Texas is better and this game is at home for them, but” – next time no buts, the Longhorns are playing great football, good enough to make them the best team in the Nation. I wasn’t much of a believer, and some weird penalties kind of kept Missouri out of it early, but Texas is good everywhere.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College (-2.5): (WINNER) The fact that BC was unranked and a favorite in this one fit perfectly. I liked the Eagles before I realized that, and afterward it made me even happier. Still, this one was close and it came right down to it. BC was the better team, even with some big mistakes. 

Oregon State Beavers (-13.5) @ Washington Huskies: (WINNER) “Free money again. This fits so many of my “good bet” categories I’m not even going into detail.” Does 34-13 qualify as a win? Oh it does? Cool, I was really worried about this one. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers: (LOSS-but) I started out liking the Bulldogs, but after further review, and later in the week I did the best I could to let you guys know that I would “stay away from this one” and bought back my bet by taking Tennessee – I hope you recognized that, all it did for me was give me a push and lose me my vig. 

Utah State Aggies (+21) @ Nevada Wolfpack:  (LOSS) “I just don’t think Nevada should be favored by 3 touchdowns against anyone in their conference, and despite the Aggies attempt to crush my soul be getting pounded by San Jose State last week, I think they are a good bet here.” Okay, I was dead wrong. Utah State is that bad and there is ONE school Nevada should be favored by three touchdowns against – the Aggies. Blast!!!

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Navy Midshipmen (+3.5): (LOSS) “First of all, this game won’t come down to points – either the Midshipmen win or they’ll get beat pretty good.” I thought Navy’s option two looked good and I was wrong, Pittsburgh just grabbed on to LeSean McCoy’s saddle and watched the score go up and up. Bad loss for me here, but I did slightly warn you about this possible outcome. 

USC Trojans (+42) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) “This spread is freaking huge – I’ll take it.” Hahaha – bet against Washington teams, what can I say, this motto is getting easier to believe in so watch out for it next week. Still, this game was 41-0 at half time and USC just ran out the clock instead of scoring again. USC’s backups could have covered this margin. This game was just as big a joke as I thought it would be. 

Kansas Jayhawks (+20) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (WINNER) “I just think Kansas is closer to Oklahoma’s level than this. OK will be up to play this game after having their #1 ranking plundered from them, and I think they win this game, just not by this much.” Well there, the Jayhawks were up for the battle and if a couple things go their way this is even closer – still, as is, the Jayhawks put up enough points to cover in Oklahoma. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) @ Michigan State Spartans: (WINNER) “Really? Hmm… I don’t see it that close.” Well, I can’t wait to tell you that I saw this one coming. The Spartans aren’t a Top 10 football team – one loss to USC doesn’t make the Buckeyes garbage. Penn State – Ohio State should be interesting.

Game Plan

Wake Forest Demon Decons @ Maryland Terrapins (+2.5): (WINNER) The Terps win outright, by a huge margin, and continue to be one of the weirdest teams in college football. Wake, no problem, but Delaware? Oh, there was a tough contest they barely got away with a win in. Weird. 

Western Michigan (-1.5) @ Central Michigan: (LOSS) “I like CMU QB Dan Lefevour,” and I should have stuck with that. Dan was balls on Saturday, taking it to Western Michigan and getting a huge win for his CMU squad. Damn it. 

Miami (OHIO) Redhawks (+10) @ Bowling Green Falcons: (WINNER) “The Falcons have allowed as many points per game as they’ve scored, and that’s never a good thing. These two teams have a nice history, and that usually ends up with Miami taking the game against the Falcons.” What do you know, Redhawks win. Sometimes that history is a good thing to follow (see this game) sometimes it’s not (see Michigan and Penn State – ha). 

Syracuse Orange (+24.5) @ South Florida Bulls: (LOSS) Damn Syracuse, what was I doing going away from betting against them? Ah, this one was closer than the score indicated. In fact, if it weren’t for that late 2nd quarter score, this would have been a different ball game. South Florida took mo into halftime and multiplied that into a bunch of points and a loss for me. 

Vanderbilt Vandals (+15) @ Georgia Bulldogs: (WINNER) “This game was close in ‘06 and close in ‘07 and this Vanderbilt team is better than they’ve had in a long time. Georgia is a very good football team, but they aren’t a “blow you out” group by any means. They’ve had trouble playing close with their opponents, and a complete upset here wouldn’t surprise me. They only beat Tennessee by 12, Arizona State by 17 and South Carolina by 7 – Vandy is better than all three of those schools. Close game here, that’s my bet.” There you go – the Bulldogs were in control, but I was right on the button about them, not a blow you out football team, especially against a never give up Vandals group. This was a nice win. 

Army Black Knights @ Buffalo Bulls (-10.5): (LOSS) Buffalo needed a lot of action late and an overtime to beat the Black Knights as obviously this one got the better of Ole Lucky on Saturday. 

North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) @ Virginia Cavaliers: (LOSS) Carolina had my win wrapped up with almost no time left, but wrapped is a joke in college football because Virginia tied this one up with a touchdown at 47 seconds left in regulation. Boo me. Then Carolina kicks a field goal and now I’m at the weird position of rooting for the Cavs to score but not a touchdown. They scored… a touchdown… I lose. Damn it! 

Middle Tennessee State (+14.5) @ Louisville Cardinals: (LOSS) “This one seems easy.” And it seemed even easier after MTS went into halftime up 3. Ah, but games are not just one half, those tricky games, and Louisvilles three touchdown 4th quarter just got me out of the money – thanks fold. The Cards won by 19 – And while I’ll admit my loss, I still think I was on the right side of this game. 

Toledo Rockets @ Northern Illinois Huskies (-8.5): (WINNER) “Toledo beat Michigan at the Big House last week… So what? Michigan is terrible, I’d take Northern Illinois over the Wolverines any day of the week and this game is at home. The Huskies have been good all year. I don’t see it, but most “experts” on a pretty prolific site have Toledo in this one. I’ll take the Huskies and be a renegade… Follow who you please.” If you followed me on one of my better picks of the week, ignoring the “experts” on said site (lets call it Lovers because it may or may not rhyme) then you took home an easy win that showed how bad Michigan really is right now. Yhatzee. 

Mississippi State @ Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5): (WINNER-but) I won this side of the bet, but I didn’t like it after further review – still, all this win did was get me a push because I bought back my bet earlier in the week by taking Tennessee here. 

Idaho Vandals @ Lousiana Tech (-20): (WINNER) 32 point win for LT – that’s a cover folks.