Week 14 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 3-4 for my free picks this week, as there were many a tough games for me. I did however, go 6-3 with my elite picks, which put me just two games over .500 on the week. I have some work to do in these next three weeks, but I have done well in the final half of the season in the 3 years prior to this, so get ready for some wins. Here’s where I went wrong on Sunday, and Thursday… Got Monday right on the dot, though!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

“Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post.” This was a weird game. Both quarterbacks went down early, and the Bears abandoned their offense which seemed weird, because it’s not like Rex was the catalyst or anything. The Redskins did just enough, in a gross fest, as the Bears just couldn’t get into the end zone.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5) : win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

There wasn’t much reason to go for the Lions here, everything working against them, and in the end, although they convered easily, they gave up a late touchdown and lost a game they very well should have won against the best team in the NFC. Craziness, but I’ll take the win.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7): win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

“My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is, if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack.” Two guys, Jackson and Lynch, each rushed for over 100 yards, and the Bills handed the Dolphins their 13th loss of the season. Yep, 3 more to go to be “that” team. Fantastic!

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

The Giants are the worst team heading into the playoffs, and I still can’t wait for them to tumble in Round 1 by about a million points to whomever they play… (Maybe not the Hawks) – Anyway, they still found a way to ugly themselves to a win, which just about made me hurl. Plaxico somehow caught a couple high and outside passes from Elly Manning, yes, pronounced L-E, and took one to the house. The Giants won, but I still think they suck. Believe me when I say, just wait and see.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

This game was a lot closer than many people imagined, but the Jets gave up a late touchdown that iced it, seems like the story of their season. Well, they’ve gotten killed a lot too. More importantly, how about those playoff bound Brownies? Oh, you betcha, they’ll be doing their best to get in, and if they can beat bad teams, they’ll sneak right on in without much of a sweat. Good win for Cleveland, their defense looked better on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

“I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure.” I warned you, and while I am definitely taking credit for this loss, hopefully you either faded my “don’t pick well on the Hawks’ games” selection, or just left it alone all together. I don’t know what it is, maybe it’s the fact that Shaunna kills me, or that I live close to these guys, or that I always expect too much until they let me down – either way, I missed this one again, and the Hawks came out and won the division early, and split the season series with the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons: win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

Gross game – easy win for me that brought me over .500 with my free/pay picks combined, so that’s nice. I fell just short of .500 with my 7 free selections, but they are my low-tier plays, and you can’t win them all. I hope I can pull of a blockbuster undefeated week here in Week 15, with some crazy spreads coming out already. Check in later in the week for my Free and Elite plays.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 08

The Playoffs begin, and the most important answers begin to flow like rains from the heavens… Okay, so don’t be ridiculous, just do what you did to get you to the place where you are. Don’t freak out and outthink yourself, but then again, don’t play it safe either. Try to score points – you know, that’s how you win. CHECK!

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I’m doing a dance between Kolby Smith and Travis Henry right now. I never thought I’d be even thinking about starting Smith over Henry with both backs being healthy, but such is the case with the way Denver’s defense is playing and the way the rookie ran in each of the last two weeks. Whatcha think, Papa? – Tuba Vernous in Missoula Montana

First and foremost, what a name! Tell me you are or were a ball player, and or have some picture online where I can see exactly what a guy with a name like Tuba Vernous looks like. Vernous… Haha. Awesome. Anyway, funny you should send me that question, because here I am deciding on that same dilemma in my very own fantasy football league. If you’re in a hurry, I went with Kolby Smith. If you want a longer answer, here it is: Smith has more upside. The kid runs hard like he’s got something to prove, and even though the Chiefs have injuries on the offensive line, the Broncos defense is 2nd to last in the league against the run, and just gave up one billion rushing yards to the Raiders. Smith is tough to tackle, and he gets to the second level in a hurry, something that kills the Broncos. I love Henry as a back, but with all three running backs healthy in Denver, you have to guess what Mike Shanahan is going to do, and that’s never an easy problem to solve. I think Henry is the best back of the bunch, and he should get the most carries, but he took 25 carries for 50 yards last week, and while he did score 2 TDs, only Splinter knows who he’ll use as a goal line back this week. Safety and upside, Kolby is the answer, as crazy as that seems.

Would you start Lee Evans against Miami or Justin Fargas against Green Bay? The one is killing me. I’m starting David Garrard over Phillip Rivers, and Vernon Davis over L.J. Smith – agree or no? – Marty Akins from Georgia

I would start Justin Fargas in a non point per reception league, and it would still be a tough decision in a ppr league. Evans talent cannot be questioned – he’s the one guy that defenses try to stop on the Bills team, but the problem is, this season, they have succeeded in doing so more often than not. Fargas is going up against a very good defensive front in Green Bay, but he’ll surely get enough looks to possibly break one, and I like the chance of him putting up 10 points more than I like Evans to do that. However, Evans goes up against Miami’s stellar defense, so honestly, I think this is close to a wash. You’d expect at least 50 yards from Evans, with a chance for 150 and a couple scores. You’d expect 70-80 total yards from Fargas with a chance of a score. So I guess upside is Evans, best chance at points is Fargas. I would also start Garrard over Rivers, even though the Titans’ secondary hasn’t impressed me much as of late, I don’t think Rivers will get enough throws to make him much of a fantasy player, plus, he’s so up and down it’s painful. Garrard is consistently good – he’ll put up around 250 yards and a score, maybe two, and he might even get some rushing yards in the right situation. Good move there. Davis or Smith? Push. They are tight ends, and if one guys gets a lucky touchdown catch, he’ll be in the Top 15 at his position. Boy, TE’s are tough to stomach on fantasy squads.

My league has a toilet bowl – what do you think about those damn things? I don’t even know if I want to win – I mean, I’m a competitive sucker just like the rest of the fantasy owners out there, but is it a good thing to be the winner of the guys who sucked most of the year? – Shaun (Not Shaunna) in Seattle

Just as long as you’re not Shaunna Alexander, I think I understand you. But then again, if you are Shaunna, then you probably would have taken Shaunna with your first round pick in your draft, and you would almost surely be in the Toilet Bowl. Honestly, I don’t mind either way. Toilet Bowls can be fun, and I’ve seen some in which the Toilet Bowl teams had the most points every week – because now that it’s the post season, their crappy starters are the only ones playing, and that can get the Goliath’s where it hurts. For those who are in the #1 and #2 seeded spots, watch out for the guys that made a late surge to get in, they usually have the best teams – which really sucks. I say it’s always good to win anything you can win. I mean, the winner of the losers is probably better than the loser of the losers – right? It’s still competition, and it’s always fun to give your buddies a hard time if they lose in the first round of the poop bowl. You just have to ask yourself, would you rather be the loser of the losers or the winner of the losers? You won’t get the young hottie, but the middle aged girl with some nice assets is always better than no girl at all.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 14

This Week’s Top Team: The search for 140…. If this were a PPR format – that would be easy breezy! As it turned out, even with Adrian Peterson’s fat 0, my guys ran in and put up 137… That’s legit.QB: Tony Romo vs. Detroit: “300+ and 3 TDs… Anyone?” Well, it took him until his final throw to surpass 300, and he only walked away with 2 touchdown passes. He was no Tom Brady (39 fantasy points) but he was a great option racking up 25.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. San Francisco: 14 rushes for 3 yards, well at least the 49ers made sure AP wasn’t going to beat them, while the did get destroyed all the way around. 0 pts for Peterson. Crazy.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Tennessee: He got a game winning rushing score in overtime, and also put up more than 170 yards of total offense and another score via the pass. He’s LT. He’s a 33 point champion in Week 14.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Pittsburgh: 135 yards, 2 touchdowns, one of them a 63 yarder for an extra two points…. 27 points for the big man. Yhatzee!

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Baltimore: IN a game that was Anthony Gonzalez’s breakout contest, Reggie only managed two catches for 42 yards, but one of them was a nice score over the defense, and even though it was a blowout and he didn’t play in the 2nd half, he had a nice 10 point day.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Tennessee: 57 yards and a game tying touchdown catch with just seconds to go. That’s the kind of day I was expecting out of Antonio, and he did it all with a bum wheel – 11 points from my TE.

K: Nick Folk vs. Detroit: My screw their team plan almost worked, but Romo’s magic ended my run and bombing kickers, even though Folk still just had 4 points. Like I said, never pick the kicker I do. Brutal.

D: Jaguars vs. Carolina: I picked this game right with the spread, and I pounded it out on the fantasy scoreboard as well. The Jags scored 27, and I walked away with a nice total, despite AP sabotaging my attempts to take over the world.

LUCKY’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Marc Bulger: I like Bulger against the Bengals almost as much as I like Palmer against the Rams – and Bulger is a much bigger sleeper at this point.

Earnest Graham: I’ll ride this kid’s bandwagon once again -hell, I’ll drive the damn thing. Graham has been all kinds of great, and though he may not be much of a sleeper – there’s still leagues in which he’s a free agent – that’s just plain stupid.

Ryan Grant: This one is pretty easy – he’s a beast and he’s rolling up against the Raiders – aka – have your best game of the season, a coke, and a smile.

Maurice Jones Drew: I’m feeling a day full of magic from this mighty little fellow – and I say little lightly – lets be honest, 5’8″ and 215 pounds isn’t small by any means. That’s a huge short guy.

Sydney Rice: Much will be focused on the Vikings run game against the 49ers, and while they still won’t be able to stop it, Rice will get his chance to get deep on a few play action options.

Roddy White: He shouldn’t be a sleeper, but I just picked him up last week – and that’s absurd. Against the Saints, he’s got to be a top 20 option this week.

Vernon Davis: The Niners won’t be able to run, and they’ll have to pass to keep in this game – Davis is their best option. I’m not crazy about this pick, but he’s an option.

Mercedes Lewis: The only pass catching tight end option in Jacksonville, and he has an accurate and safe passer throwing the ball. That’s a good combination for a tight end that is probably on your waiver wire. Add that to his size and hands – you have to like this play.

Buccaneers: The Texans can put up points, but the Bucs have been good at shutting squads down all year long. I like Tampa’s chances against a Sage Rosenfell and Ron Dayne led offense. (I guess Andrew Johnson is the real leader, but he’s a WR, they don’t count)

LUCKY’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Because he’s brutal.

Joseph Addai: The Ravens should stop him just like they’ve stopped every other running back. I sure like Addai though, and I know I can’t sit him – it’s just that I don’t think he’ll be good this week.

Justin Fargas: This young back has been dynamite since getting the starting gig, but I don’t see the Packers letting him run around much on Sunday.

Javon Walker: I like the Chiefs’ defense, and Walker has been slow to return from injuries. He’s still a week or two off, and the Broncos are still trying to figure their lives out.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 14

This Week’s Top Team: The search for 140…. If this were a PPR format – that would be easy breezy!

QB: Tony Romo vs. Detroit: Romo against the Lions secondary – boy, I love that lineup so much I’m scared to use it. Oh well, I had a piece of pie, and I’m not scared anymore – this seems too good to be true. 300+ and 3 TDs… Anyone?

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. San Francisco: A great line and a relatively small defensive run stopping unit that hasn’t succeeded in anything except stopping their own pathetic offense in practice during scrimmages all year long. (Exhale) Peterson is a beast – and even with 15-20 carries, you’d think he’ll put up 130+ and a TD or two.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Tennessee: I don’t care who he’s playing, I’d probably take him against the armies of hell and Mordor combined into one wretched pack of homely beasts. I think the Titans will feel a little ego bruising after LT is done with them.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Pittsburgh: I’ll ride Randy’s low point, and expect a big week from the super-talented wide receiver this week in Pittsburgh. It doesn’t hurt that I think the Pats will put it on the Steel Show.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Baltimore: The Ravens were solid in shutting down Randy Moss last week, but Reggie is all Peyton has, and I think the Ravens will bow out early against the Colts – they have to be questioning themselves, their coaches, and of course life in general after last week’s last second loss.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Tennessee: Gates had 1 catch for -1 yard last week – not really the stats you’d like to have from the solid pass catching tight end. This week, the Titans will do their damnedest to stop LT, and Gates should find a few open holes to take advantage of less defensive coverage.

K: Nick Folk vs. Detroit: I think Folk could have a big week – but I’m always wrong. So, just in case, I’m hoping my back kicker luck could wear on the Cowboys and maybe give the Lions a much needed upset – mainly so TO will start another week for my fantasy playoffs. So what? I have an ulterior motive here – big whoop.

D: Jaguars vs. Carolina: Carolina stinks – they should get hammered by the Jags – a shutout possibly? I sure hope so.

LUCKY’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Marc Bulger: I like Bulger against the Bengals almost as much as I like Palmer against the Rams – and Bulger is a much bigger sleeper at this point.

Earnest Graham: I’ll ride this kid’s bandwagon once again -hell, I’ll drive the damn thing. Graham has been all kinds of great, and though he may not be much of a sleeper – there’s still leagues in which he’s a free agent – that’s just plain stupid.

Ryan Grant: This one is pretty easy – he’s a beast and he’s rolling up against the Raiders – aka – have your best game of the season, a coke, and a smile.

Maurice Jones Drew: I’m feeling a day full of magic from this mighty little fellow – and I say little lightly – lets be honest, 5’8″ and 215 pounds isn’t small by any means. That’s a huge short guy.

Sydney Rice: Much will be focused on the Vikings run game against the 49ers, and while they still won’t be able to stop it, Rice will get his chance to get deep on a few play action options.

Roddy White: He shouldn’t be a sleeper, but I just picked him up last week – and that’s absurd. Against the Saints, he’s got to be a top 20 option this week.

Vernon Davis: The Niners won’t be able to run, and they’ll have to pass to keep in this game – Davis is their best option. I’m not crazy about this pick, but he’s an option.

Mercedes Lewis: The only pass catching tight end option in Jacksonville, and he has an accurate and safe passer throwing the ball. That’s a good combination for a tight end that is probably on your waiver wire. Add that to his size and hands – you have to like this play.

Buccaneers: The Texans can put up points, but the Bucs have been good at shutting squads down all year long. I like Tampa’s chances against a Sage Rosenfell and Ron Dayne led offense. (I guess Andrew Johnson is the real leader, but he’s a WR, they don’t count)

LUCKY’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Because he’s brutal.

Joseph Addai: The Ravens should stop him just like they’ve stopped every other running back. I sure like Addai though, and I know I can’t sit him – it’s just that I don’t think he’ll be good this week.

Justin Fargas: This young back has been dynamite since getting the starting gig, but I don’t see the Packers letting him run around much on Sunday.

Javon Walker: I like the Chiefs’ defense, and Walker has been slow to return from injuries. He’s still a week or two off, and the Broncos are still trying to figure their lives out.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 14

Last week’s dedication to Winnie Cooper and the luck she gave, only propelled me to 3-5 with my free picks, and 5-3 in my elite selections – but I did pull off enough wins to keep me even, and hopefully this week she can shed a little light on the luck of Week 14 and take me to the promise land. Here are my free picks for Week 14 – only 4 more weeks to go!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post. Clinton Portis might be limited in this game, and while the Bears defense has been a shell of their former selves, they seem to be getting back to basics and attacking the line of scrimmage. I also like the dynamic that Adrian Peterson brings to the Bears’ offense. He catches the ball very well, which opens up a lot of plays that weren’t there with Benson in the game. It forces opposing defenses to account for Peterson’s receiving ability, and that’s always a good thing.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

No running game in Detroit = big loss to the visiting Cowboys. Dallas shuts down the rush enough as it is, but without any hint of a decent rushing attack, the Lions, and more reasonably Jon Kitna, will be bait in the water for Wade Phillips’ shark attack defense. I would expect sacks and turnovers galore for Dallas’s D – and any extra chances will surely amount to points for Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ passing game, because the Lions secondary is one of the weakest in the League. Detroit’s rush defense was exposed last week as well, and Roy Williams will be out for this game, and most likely the rest of the season. How the sky has fallen for Jon Kitna-Little and his big expectations for the Lions. To salvage their season, they’ll need a huge upset over the best team in the NFC.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack. I’m not a huge fan of either side on this game, as I think the value is minimal. But in a crunch, I’d take the Bills – they are better, and Buffalo is always a tough place to play, you know, because it’s painfully cold and pretty much brutal all around.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

I like the Eagles to rebound this week against the Giants. They lost to the Hawks last week, but that was mainly due to 4 interceptions by the interception king, A.J. Feeley. Yes, the guy everyone was crowning last week after the Patriot game has 7 picks in 2 games – in a 16 game season, he’s on pace to throw just around, I don’t know, 56 interceptions (in my head quick math, not caring enough to double check). McNabb is apparently in for this week, and while we shouldn’t forget what happened to McNabb last time these two teams met, I’m guessing the Eagles will play better and actually consider blocking for their quarterback this time around. The bottom line is, I don’t think the Giants are good, at all, and while they’ve used a little luck to sneak by more than their fair share of teams this year, it will come a crashing halt sometime soon, and I think it all starts in Philly. Westbrook is magic – don’t forget that one truth.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Jets have killed me a few times this season, but the Browns seem to play to the level of their opponents, and the Jets can trick you good. See, they have a terrible record, and have played abysmal football in week’s past, but they also have a maturing offensive line, and a coach that is starting to understand the importance of a rushing attack. The Browns have a terrible defense (just about as bad as the Jets – except New York has done a little to impress me over the last few weeks) and their offense won’t be able to cover road games in which they are favored by more than a field goal. Look for the Jets to get yet another win, and bring the Browns back down to earth a little bit.
Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure. Shaunna Alexander actually ran hard in the second half of last week’s game against the Eagles, but I’m not sure if that was just a one time thing for the former touchdown machine. I’m guessing it is, and that he’ll be back to folding like a lawn chair as soon as he sees contact this week in front of the home town fans. The Cardinals may be hurting at receiver a little bit, but they are deep at the position, and I don’t think Boldin’s absence will be that much of a kick in the butt. Getting 8 points from 5Dimes on Wednesday, I had to move to the direction of the Cardinals. If Ken Whisenhunt has shown me one thing, it’s that, the more he gets to know a team, the better he prepares his team to beat that squad. Well, this is the second meeting with the Hawks, and while it’s tough to beat a good team twice in a season, I don’t think it will be hard to keep the game close. Take all those points and the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

I don’t think Mark Redman will be the answer the Falcons have been searching for since Vick went wacko and did the deeds that got him where he is today. Bobby Patrino continues to give the ball to Warrick Dunn, despite horrid numbers, even though the ever explosive Jerious Norwood wears Falcons’ garb to every Atlanta game. The only way I can make sense of it is, Atlanta knows they are an abysmal pile of oozy cow pie, and they don’t want Norwood to get hurt when he doesn’t need to. It’s either that or Patrino has been drinking heavily before games, and forgets that his best player isn’t on the field for 85% of their offensive snaps. Either way, this is an interesting mess the Falcons have gotten in, and I’m not so sure they’re going to get out of it any time soon. New Orleans isn’t good, but they aren’t too bad on the road in recent years, and Atlanta will be stoked to see stars like Bush, Brees, and Colston, so they aren’t going to be hostile, more thankful than anything else. This is a big Monday Night game for the wingless Falcons, but in the end, when all is said and done, at the end of the day, when the good has been sifted from the bad, it just won’t matter, even with a bunch of poorly used clich├ęs.

Week 13 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Winnie left me waiting in the car and took my best buddy out for a good time… I sat in my car and listened to the football games break my heart. Here is how I lost 5 different games with my free picks. My elite picks brought me back close to .500 by going 5-3, but it was still a tough week for Ole Lucky Lester.

Thursday’s Game…

Green Bay Packers (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

Close call, and I’d like to say that Brett Favre’s absence killed the Packers, but I can’t even buy that. Aaron Rodgers came in rolling, and played well enough if the Packers had a chance at all. Truth be told, Ryan Grant had a hell of a game, and TO gave a touchdown away, literally. So I lost this game, but deservedly so. Tough week, not much luck, started with a Thursday Night loss.

Sunday’s Games…

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 9:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“I think the Falcons are just about done winning games this season, and the Rams just started. Despite losing last week at home to Seattle, St. Louis played a pretty solid game, and still has one of the best offensive units in the game when healthy… I’m sure the public will be riding the Rams in this one, but I honestly think they’ll win by more than a touchdown.” (Me) This picked just seemed too easy, and in the end it definitely was. Not much to say but, I’d be surprised if the Falcons won another game this season, and I think the Rams will win at least two more in the next 4 weeks.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (-5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Terrible, ridiculous, absurd I’m so old I forgot the rules playcalling lost this game for the Redskins, but I lost my bet when Washington decided to stumble about anxiously down the stretch. I don’t get why they didn’t keep moving the ball and trying to score, this old school way of playing football just doesn’t fit the now in the NFL. Gibbs’ time has passed as an NFL coach, as much as I like the guy. I’m just flat out tired of watching the Redskins outplay their opponents for much of the game, only to droop late in each contest and fail. The Skins were up 5 late into the 4th, but tumbled by 1 as a last second field goal ended their day.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I guess I was wrong about the Lions, and their solid rushing defense. This team has hit rock bottom, and I don’t know how they can turn it around with Dallas getting the nod next week. Bring on Romo and TO? Right, not quite the team you like to see if you need a win to turn your season around.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Titans just came out and pounded the ball. Also, Vince Young was tested, and he passed with flying colors. The Texans dared him to throw by dialing up single coverage on the outside, and Young had one of his better passing days in his young NFL career. I’m not sure if the Titans will do much better than 8-8 this season, but they’ll be pretty darn good next season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

This game was closer than the final score insisted, but I needed a win, and I got one. The field was a mess, and I made a nice little profit on the under at the last minute. I noticed the rain in the Philly game and went right for the computer to place a new bet on the under. It came close, but some solid defense and some streaky quarterbacking kept the game well under the total, and I got the W there as well.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I would have pushed had Brian Westbrook cut in bounds and scored on that last minute punt return instead of running out of bounds, but ifs and buts are useless and are the type of excuses that annoy everyone. The bottom line is, the Hawks defense came to play on the road, something they rarely do. Also, even though Shaunna Alexander is just about my least favorite player this side of Drew Bledsoe, he actually rand down hill a few times in the second half, and that was enough to keep the Hawks on their winning streak. They have the talent to do damage; now if they can just keep their focus. This was a great game, but it was lost by A.J. Feeley and his love for interceptions.

Monday Night Football Game

New England Patriots (-20) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I hate to say it, but the Patriots should have lost this game. My mommy always told me, “You know, those games are all fixed. There’s more important people than those players, and they know the right people, have enough influence, and are big enough asses to decide who wins and who loses.” Aside from crying, and telling her she was wrong, I’ve still never agreed that games are won and lost because rich guys pay off poor guys, but this game could definitely cause a stir amongst those who believe the other way. Honestly, I just think great teams often get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the closest of plays, and while that will always piss someone off, it’s just the way it is. Mike Jordan got the calls, Larry Bird did as well – Joe Montana and the 49ers were the angels of the NFL back in the day, and Wayne Gretzky did what he wanted when he laced up the skates. I hate to say it, but that’s just the way it is. Right now, I’m officially off the Patriots picking train, and back to actually capping their games.

Week 14 College Football Picks Review: 2007

I needed some help in Week 14 after a couple stinkers, and I think I got just that! 4-1! On to the Bowls!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 14

Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5) @ Boston College Eagles: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Hokies were the better team for the second straight game, and this time they came out of the game with a big win. To think, if they didn’t crumble in the last 4 minutes last time they played BC, they would be playing for the National Championship. I hate the BCS, by the way.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Central Florida Knights (-7.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Boy, this was one of the easier picks of the week. Check out my free picks section to see how well I called this game. On the freaking button.

Army Black Knights @ Navy Midshipmen (-14): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

While this game was closer than I thought, it was my biggest bet of the week, and I sure am glad it won big for me. I needed the Midshipmen to come out and run all over the Knights, but Army was up to the challenge. However, a couple tough calls and some “fortunate turnovers” (fortunate for me) helped me get a huge win, and a nice 4-1 mark on my last week of the regular season.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+7.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Well, my lone loss came in a game where I underestimated the Wolfpack’s talent. This was a killing, as the Bulldogs never stood a chance. They lacked the want to win all year long, losing too many close games, but in the end, they came out and put a hurting on the Bulldogs.

Oregon State Beavers (pk) @ Oregon Ducks: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Vegas picked this well, but in the 2nd OT, the stronger team took the Cival War, and could very well end up in a better Bowl situation than their Green instate enemies.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 01

Lucky number Week 13, or that’s what my nephew calls it after he hit 16-0 a couple years ago – anyway, no need to waste any more time trouting around like donkeys, lets get right to this fantasy business.

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I need a win something fierce, who should I start between the following? Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, or Edgerrin James (any two will do) and between Deion Branch and Reggie Brown… Thanks! – Con Brinkley in New York

I would never bench Addai – he’s too big a part of the Colts offense, and he’s a very good runner with great all around numbers. That leaves Steven Jackson playing Atlanta and Edgerrin James going up against the Cleveland Browns. Can you go wrong? I don’t know. It’s tough to choose an aging Edge over a healthy and youthful Ste-Jack, so I just won’t do it. I like James’ match-up with the Browns, but honestly, I think Kurt Warner and company will easily toss touchdowns against Cleveland’s defense, leaving little room for James to score. Go with the Jackson-Addai dynamic duo… As for receiver, I think you have a touch decision on your hands. The Eagles worked a way to shut down Randy Moss, who plays an outside roll similar to that of Deion Branch, plus, Branch is shorter and not as able to jump and get the ball. Branch will be the surefire #1 with Hackett out. Reggie Brown hasn’t impressed much this season, but A.J. Feeley seems to have more trust in him than McNabb did, and it looks like Feeley is about to start. So I’d got with Brown. He is a nice physical match-up for the vertically challenged Seahawk cornerbacks, and the Eagles will have room to run play action and get nice gains through the air. I’d roll the way of the Eagle in this one.

I’m in a league where you get to keep one player at each position. I’m already keeping Steven Jackson and Andre Johnson at RB and WR, but who would you keep between Matt Schaub and Derek Anderson at QB? I know DA is getting fantasy stats with the best of them, but I have to like Schaub’s upside, right? – Cam Carlson in Michigan

Cam, you do have a tough decision, regardless of all the fantasy points Anderson is holding over Schaub’s head. What you have to think about with DA is, how long will he be in Cleveland? You’d think a team, with all the trouble they’ve had trying and finally getting a solid quarterback, would just stick with what got them to the next level, but obviously they might feel as though they have a situation with Brady Quinn, and end up with a Drew Brees/Phillip Rivers dilemma in Cleveland. Tough call. Matt Schaub is going to be the starter in Houston for a long time. He has one of the best young receivers in the game, he has a coach that has succeeded in forming some of the most efficient offenses in the game, and he’ll only get better with the more opportunities he has. However, Derek Anderson has weapons too, very good ones in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow – plus, Jamal Lewis isn’t old yet, and the offensive line in Cleveland is awesome, plus LeCharles Bentley is expected back next season, making them even better. I’m not sure you have a wrong choice here, the Texans O-Line problems make Schaub more of a health risk, and the Browns commitment to Brady Quinn makes DA an interesting keeper – but I say stick with Anderson. He’s a big gun-slinger with a cannon for an arm, a great O-Line, and two huge weapons with great hands in Edwards and Winslow.

I know it’s this season, but I’m just checking predictions here, how do you rank the following receivers and then quarterbacks heading into next season? Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson. Then Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, David Garrard, Jay Cutler, and Vince Young. Fantasy-wise of course, and in a 6 pt TD pass league, with PPR format. – Sherry Baby in Denver, Colorado

Sherry, Baby – I personally would go with Randy Moss (assuming he stays in New England – might be a big assumption), Andre Johnson, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and then Roy Williams. Obviously, in NE, Randy is the king of the wide receiver class – he has one of the smartest coaches in the game, smartest quarterbacks in the game, and a team that loves to give him a chance at the ball. Andre gets my second vote, because he’s been dynomite when given a chance, and I can only imagine he gets better with one more season, and another year together with Schaub. TO is a close 3rd, probably 2a, but is just a hair behind AJ because of his years and sometimes questionable actions in years’ past. Though I think he’s been a great teammate and citizen this season, and imagine he’ll continue on that path until he’s done. Larry is my #4 because after starting a little slowly, he’s been one of the most consistent receivers in the game – I’m not sure, but he’s been close to 100 yards in almost every single one of his last 8 games – that’s solid. Plus, I think he’ll always be a great touchdown threat. I put Calvin over Roy Williams, because the Lions seem to like Calvin more, and while I think Roy is freakishly good, Johnson might have just that much more of a special size speed combo – making him get the nod.

At QB, I’d go with Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, David Garrard and Vince Young – VY has the intangibles to get him big wins in the NFL, but I think people will soon realize that he’s not the fantasy royalty everyone was thinking he’d be. Eil Manning and David Garrard are so much closer than I thought they’d be, even with David getting the starting gig. Eli is just too inconsistent. While he gets lots of TDs, he also spends a lot of time throwing for under 200 yards – which is gross, and he makes lots of mistakes. Garrard doesn’t make mistakes. Phillip Rivers may be in the midst of a down year, but I can’t imagine that rolls into next season. He’s too competitive and accurate, and he can throw the ball with enough velocity when he sets his mind to it. Plus, look at those weapons. That brings me to Jay Cutler, a 2nd year guy that I think is being held back by his coaching staff trying to limit his mistakes. He can toss a football as far as anyone, and he’s got good vision even when pressure is around him. Plus, as much as I hate Splinter, he’s one hell of a coach, and he’ll always put Jay in good positions. The biggest thing working for Jay is his receiving corps. Brandon Marshall is going to be a great receiver, Javon Walker will be healthy and when so, he’s fantastic and then you have Tony Scheffler – great hands and a fearless attack on the ball in the air. Watch out for Jay next season.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**