Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 16

16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there’s time, I just have to figure out who’s playing and who’s resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are some interesting dilemmas going into the week – this is how it looks from the LL highchair…

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams. This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The Steelers have to think they’re going to go into St. Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough, and especially against a secondary that is allowing passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams receiving crew can put up some points, and don’t expect the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good away team, and the pressure is building on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I’ve been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I think I might be on to something with this one.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic outing last week against the Eagles – and the Panthers have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week for things not to get back to the way they should be with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers. This game feels too easy.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Bengals are lost. I won’t put all the money in the world on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other, and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that. But in the end, I still think the Bengals don’t have enough consistency on offense, and that will be their undoing at home against the Brownies.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course, that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn’t make a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet. As a common rule, it’s usually smart to take a good team over another team that they lost to earlier in the year.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

I also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should get out of hand right away. The Raiders won’t have their best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville, especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and the Giants aren’t. The Bills want to win, the Giants have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don’t know if there’s anything else needed in this one. This seems like a great bet to me.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts didn’t seem to care much about winning last week, and I don’t think they’ll put out a full effort doing so this week, either. I don’t think the Colts will play their starters for much of the game, and that gives a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they haven’t been the most consistent team lately. One thing they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier in the season, and they usually find away to put up a pretty good fight against their conference rival. I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry Johnson might play, but I don’t see that as a start that would change this game any way or the other. Sure, LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn’t strong enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game in KC just doesn’t scare opposing defenses, which probably plays to the Lions strengths. I’m taking the Lions, even though there’s no shot they reach Jon Kitna’s prediction.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):

At my due date, this game still doesn’t have an active line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore, I just won’t bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight up, but can’t really even get close to imagining what kind of line these guys are going to come up with in this game. I’m not sure what the game means to Seattle, but I’m also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower release, this is his second game ever, and he’s going up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this game.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team that has really played like donkey poop all season long. I don’t know what happened to Shanny’s bunch this time around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can’t even run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall, and the Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie is just the physical freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner, Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like an easy pick, even with the big spread.

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