Last Week of the season – I had a nice Pay Picks week last week, but struggled with my free plays once again. This week looks a little more simple, and I expect a winning system out of both my free and pay picks. That is why I’m just going to publish them all for you to see. Good luck, and lets go out with a bang!
Saturday’s Game…
New England (-13) @ N.Y. Giants:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)
What can I say? Maybe I’m a guy that wants to see the Patriots go undefeated so I don’t have to ever listen to interviews of the “perfect Dolphins” ever again – hell, I’ll even admit it, yeah, I am that guy, and I don’t want to hear what Don Shula has to say. But I am also a smart guy that sees a Giants team that will almost surely crumble under pressure anyway, and when they feel themselves doing exactly that, will most likely take their free get out of the game card and begin to rest their starters. The Giants aren’t good, and the Patriots are one of the best teams of all time. I don’t see New England walking into this game and struggling at all. This tank of a team will roll into the post season with a big win on Saturday Night.
Sunday’s Games…
Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
The Eagles are playing well, and the Bills have struggled down the stretch, but I’m not so sure the Eagles will come out and play with passion in the final week of a season where they aren’t competing for anything but a win. In fact, I’m willing to bet that the Bills make a strong push at winning this game, despite the way McNabb and this offense have been playing. Trent Edwards and this group of young Bills are building toward next season, and a big win to end the year is always a perfect way to do that. At 5Dimes, the line is 9, and that is way too much for an inconsistent Eagles team that doesn’t have anything to play for.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)
The Bucs really stunk it up last week against the 49ers, but the Panthers are bad, and I think even without Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway, the Bucs will do enough to down the horrible Panthers. Steve Smith is finally getting the ball a little bit for the Panthers, but the Bucs have good smart defensive players all over the field, and I think they’ll shut down the Panthers in Tampa.
Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
I just don’t think Green Bay’s starters will play much of this game, despite the overall feeling that the Packers need to end the season on a good note after struggling mightily against the Bears last week. Green Bay is already in, they already have a bye set up, and even though Brett will probably play a couple quarters in this game, I just think the Lions really want to get to .500 after failing to make the playoffs despite a great start. Jon Kitna is a solid quarterback, and a leader that rarely allows his team to give up. They’ll play hard in Green Bay, and probably pull out a win to end the year.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)
I’m sorry to say it (actually I don’t care that much at all) but the Falcons are a dead franchise right now. They have a coach that won’t be there next year. A group of quarterbacks that will almost surely be dedicated to backup duty next year. A bunch of veterans that could be cut or traded in the off-season, and a complete organization that lost out on hiring Bill Parcells and has no idea what they are going to do moving forward. I know that Hawks don’t have much to play for, but I have to be honest, Seneca Wallace and the Hawks backup players are a group I’d favor over Atlanta’s lost team. And honestly, I get the feeling that the Hawks are going to play their starters longer than many think. This game seems too easy to me. That’s what scares me. Just for careful’s sake, I’m laying just a medium bet on this game this week – I’m not the best at picking Seattle games anyway, but I just can’t stay away from this one.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
This is a weak play, if a play at all. But since I pick them all, I’m rolling with Chad Pennington in this one. He’s pretty much competing for a job somewhere else next year, and he’s accurate and competitive enough to give the Chiefs some problems on Sunday. The Jets didn’t play well at all last year, but their strong push last week in a loss to Tennessee impressed me. They didn’t put up much in terms of points, but they did play strong defensively. If the Jets can effectively stop the Titans who are doing anything they can to get to the playoffs, then yeah, I think the Chiefs should be an easy win in the final week.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
I like the home team in this one, but just barely. I’d like to think that Ken Whisenhunt will get his guys read to play, and Kurt Warner is still petitioning for a starting gig somewhere next season. The Cardinal play inspired football at home, and they are relatively healthy offensively and still can be solid from time to time on the defensive side of the ball. I like both these teams in the future, and think both will play a solid game, I just think the Cardinals will have more to play for and a coach that will get all that he can from them.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)
The 49ers have played solid football over the last couple weeks, and Frank Gore seems to be healthy and running had – but the Browns have a whole heck of a lot more to win and lose on this game, and they are just that much better than San Fran, even with the Niners playing better as of late. Derek Anderson is a free agent at season’s end, and even though he’ll almost surely be back in Cleveland, you can bet he’ll want to play extra well with his future in the crosshairs. I’m expecting Cleveland to put up a bunch of points on way to this victory, if it’s in vein or not.
Elite Picks for Week 17
*4 NFL Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
The Ravens are done, and they’re even more upset that their lame duck head coach is back in the saddle next season. They have a bunch of playoff hungry vets that have no chance at getting to the show this season, and that has crushed this teams’ will. A lot of changes look to be coming next season, and the frustrations has already begun to show. The Steelers still need to win for playoff seeding and the right to possibly skip Jacksonville in the 1st round. Even if Big Ben doesn’t play, Charlie Batch has proven he can get the job done, and the Ravens are bad enough to make me believe he has a very good chance. Just a field goal? Yeah, I like the Steel-Show a lot, here.
*3 NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
Everybody wants to say that Denver is ready to get back and win to end the season after the whole Phillip Rivers incident last week against San Deigo, but it’s just not going to happen. The Vikings are way too physical for the Broncos defensive front, their running backs are too talented, and they need a win to get into the playoffs. They need more than just a win, but a win gives them a chance, and I believe, that after last week’s slip up to the Redskins, they’ll at least want to go out swinging. I like their chances in Denver, and think they should absolutely obliterate the Broncos on Sunday.
*5 NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish. Too much on the line for San Diego to roll over, and the Raiders aren’t good enough to halt what’s coming, even if their #1 pick, JaMarcus Russell, is getting his first start in the NFL.
*3 NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
I’m not a big Saints fan, but I have to be honest, they have to beat the Bears in Chicago, right? Kyle Orton isn’t a frightening young quarterback, despite his warewolf beard. He doesn’t make as many mistakes as the other Bear quarterbacks, but I don’t think he’ll put up enough points to fight off a Saints team that actually has a small sliver of hope left. Chicago’s secondary is still a huge question mark, despite the way they played last week against Green Bay. They won’t have two great weeks in a row, they just aren’t good enough to do so.
*6 NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)
The Colts have nothing to play for and the Titans can bring pressure. Expect Indy’s starters to play very little and the Titans to win this game by a couple touchdowns. Indy’s head coach has always believed in his own way, and risking his best players to end Tennessee’s season doesn’t seem like his prerogative. Strong action here.
*3 NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)
The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.
*4 NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)
Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk. This isn’t the strongest play I have this weekend, but I like it enough to drop a few bucks on the Bengals in Miami.
Monday Night Football Game
*4 NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)
This game seems easy enough. The Cowboys are pretty much cashing in their great regular season, and leasing a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t need to win this game, and I don’t think we’ll see much of their 1st team talent on either side of the ball. No need to risk injury, even if it does mean strangling the playoff breath out of your rival. Todd Collins has played well since taking over for Jason Campbell, and the Redskins have dedicated their run toward the post season to their fallen teammate, Sean Taylor. They have a playoff spot to play for and a motivated group of guys ready to win. I think they’ll take this one by a couple touchdowns.