2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 16

This Week’s Top Team: Championship Week – I feel inclined to do it up!

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. New Orleans: Just like last week, the Saints are still really brutal, and I expect Donovan to have his way with their secondary. I’m not sure what the distant future holds for McNabb, but this weekend shows promise.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: denver is a terrible run defense, one of the bottom 3 in the NFL. LT is the best running back in the league. I’m not sure what his carries will look like, but I still think he’s a great start on Sunday.

RB: Earnest Graham vs. San Francisco: HE may not be a big name, but he’s a big time player, and the Bucs have been riding his hard running all the way to the playoffs. They’ll do it again on Sunday.

WR: Braylon Edwards vs. Cincinnati: I don’t see the Bengals doing much guarding of Braylon. He’s too fast and physical for them, and he’s proven to have that secondary’s number. Look for him to have a big game.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Miami: One more time, I’m going with the big receiver in New England. Brady’s close enough to the touchdown title that he might just make a run at it. Who’s his best option to get that done with? You bet.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Carolina: The Cowboys have to climb back with a good game here, don’t they? Witten is a go to guy for Romo, he’ll find him early and often.

K: David Akers vs. New Orleans: Good kicker, bad defense, in-doors. I like Akers’ chances this weekend, even though I’m terrible at picking kickers this year.

D: Jaguars vs. Oakland: Oakland is mistake prone and Jacksonville is very good. The Jaguar offense is very good at staying on the field which gives their defense ample time to rest. Good play here.


Sage Rosenfels: The Colts look like they’ve packed it in for the Playoffs, and Sage can put up good numbers in that offense, I might even start this guy in my fantasy championship.

Ron Dayne: What I said about Sage, but Dayne isn’t the biggest threat out there. But I have to give him his credit, he’s been solid when given the ball.

Frank Gore: Against the Bengals, I think Gore will get over the 100 yard plateau. He’s a very good back, he’s tough, and the Bengals don’t tackle well. Tough start for the young 49er, but he’ll be solid in this one.

Brandon Jacobs: When will the Giants realize that they need to give this kid the ball more? Jacobs is a beast, and all he does is succeed when given a high number of carries. Less Eli, more Brandon. Comprende?

Calvin Johnson: CJ is a physical freak of nature and he’s getting the majority of balls in Detroit’s offense. You have to like his chances against a Chiefs team that hasn’t been playing good football of late.

Roddy White: I expect a big bounce back game for Roddy.

Tony Scheffler: If you’ve paid attention, I like this kid a lot. I know he goes up against Denver, but there’s room in the middle of that secondary – Tony might just find it. s

Deion Branch: If running the ball isn’t going to work against the Panthers (last week) it definitely won’t work on Sunday. However, the Ravens secondary has been sketchy for a while now, and Branch could get his passes this week.

Buccaneers: I have to take the Bucs again, they had a big week against a terrible team last week, why not again against yet another horror of an NFL football team?

LUCKY’S Week 16 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Ain’t nothing like watching Eli’s “Gummo” face watch his receivers drop passes – hilarious.

Clinton Portis: Welcome to Minnesota’s defensive line, the place where stud running backs come to die.

Lee Evans: The Giants do have a good pass rush, so don’t expect any deep routes from Evans on Sunday – that pretty much eliminates his whole game.

Donte Stallworth: I imagine the Patriots will show the Dolphins how much Wes Welker is worth on Sunday. That means less looks for Stallworth.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 16

16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there’s time, I just have to figure out who’s playing and who’s resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are some interesting dilemmas going into the week – this is how it looks from the LL highchair…

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams. This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The Steelers have to think they’re going to go into St. Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough, and especially against a secondary that is allowing passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams receiving crew can put up some points, and don’t expect the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good away team, and the pressure is building on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I’ve been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I think I might be on to something with this one.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic outing last week against the Eagles – and the Panthers have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week for things not to get back to the way they should be with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers. This game feels too easy.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Bengals are lost. I won’t put all the money in the world on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other, and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that. But in the end, I still think the Bengals don’t have enough consistency on offense, and that will be their undoing at home against the Brownies.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course, that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn’t make a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet. As a common rule, it’s usually smart to take a good team over another team that they lost to earlier in the year.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

I also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should get out of hand right away. The Raiders won’t have their best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville, especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and the Giants aren’t. The Bills want to win, the Giants have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don’t know if there’s anything else needed in this one. This seems like a great bet to me.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts didn’t seem to care much about winning last week, and I don’t think they’ll put out a full effort doing so this week, either. I don’t think the Colts will play their starters for much of the game, and that gives a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they haven’t been the most consistent team lately. One thing they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier in the season, and they usually find away to put up a pretty good fight against their conference rival. I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry Johnson might play, but I don’t see that as a start that would change this game any way or the other. Sure, LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn’t strong enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game in KC just doesn’t scare opposing defenses, which probably plays to the Lions strengths. I’m taking the Lions, even though there’s no shot they reach Jon Kitna’s prediction.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):

At my due date, this game still doesn’t have an active line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore, I just won’t bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight up, but can’t really even get close to imagining what kind of line these guys are going to come up with in this game. I’m not sure what the game means to Seattle, but I’m also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower release, this is his second game ever, and he’s going up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this game.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team that has really played like donkey poop all season long. I don’t know what happened to Shanny’s bunch this time around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can’t even run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall, and the Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie is just the physical freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner, Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like an easy pick, even with the big spread.

2006 Fantasy Football Review – Week 16

This Week’s Top Team: 87 points? Damn it all to hell, maybe I counted wrong….

QB: Drew Brees: Brees, unfortunately, had no reason to produce much through the air. His running back tandem destroyed the Giants psyche and boosted the Saints into the 2 seed in the NFC. Drew had 9 points.

RB: Ladell Betts: 129 yards and 2 touchdwons for Ladell hooked me up with 25 points, and he ranked 5th amongst runners in Week 16.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson: LT’s had a human day against Seattle, rushing for 120+ and catching a pass for 10 yards. No scores for the TD King though, as LT came out with 13 fantasy points.

WR: Terrell Owens: TO had more drops (3) than catches (2) but his 23 yards and 1 score were good enough for 8 fantasy points. Thanks.

WR: Javon Walker: Javon had 52 yards and a touchdown, a few points better than TO, but not nearly good enough for me to be happy. 11 points for J-Walk.

TE: Antonio Gates: Zero. Rivers looked real bad, as Gates didn’t have a chance to do much. He’s still the best TE in fantasy football, though, as he raked in 67 yards on two grabs. 6 points.

K: Adam Vinitieri: To go along with my teams theme this week, Vini had 6 total points. Yeah!

D: Bears: After drastically underperforming once again, the Bears walked away with 9 fantasy points. Yes!


Matt Hasselbeck: This guy has played real bad of late, hopefully for the Hawks that business stops right quick. Matt had 4 points in a Seattle loss.

Jay Cutler: Jay had 13 points as he threw for 2 TD’s for the 4th straight time since he started for Jake Plummer. Kid’s gonna be money.

Edgerrin James: Edge only had 10, but double figures for the former dreaded one isn’t a bad total this year, he had 105 rushing yards on Sunday.

Ron Dayne: “Even though Indy did a nice job slowing the run against the Bengals, I think they’ll have trouble this week with Dayne. Ron has been running well, so don’t be surprised if he has a nice week at home.” Nice? Try 3rd ranked back in Week 16, try 153 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. 27 points for the chubby runner.

Anquan Boldin: ‘Quan had 6 whole fantasy points. Not the production I needed, as I lost my Fantasy Super Bowl by 10 points. Of course, the 1 point from Chad Johnson didn’t help me much either.

Marques Colston: The young rook had 34 yards and a score, good for 9 points, not too bad at all.

Algae Crumpler: Crump had 3 points, good for, eh, pretty much nothing…
Indy Colts DST: After an encouraging performance against a surging Bengals squad, the Colts sucked bad against the Texans. Which almost seems impossible. Anyway, 2 points continues to make me look stupid this week.

LUCKY’S Week 16 Moss’S

Jon Kitna: Kitna blew me out of the water, busting out 3 touchdowns against a suddenly suspect secondary in Bear country. 21 points for the slanging Lion.

Deuce McCallister: Well the Giants were in for a long day, because they had no answer for Deuce and Reggie. I was wrong. Not the first time.

Keyshawn Johnson: 2 fantasy points…. It’s nice to be correct from time to time, I’ll tell ya.

Randy Moss: Is this guy still playing football? Haven’t heard anything from him in sometime now. He was out this weekend, and he’ll be out next weekend, and hmmm… will we ever see the great Randy again?

Free Football Picks 06-07 Week 16

Week 15 went well, making 3 straight weeks of winners for the come back kid of the season. Follow me, good ol’ Lucky Lester, on the way to my 4th straight week of big winners.Gimmie-Games

Bengals over the Broncos
Bears over the Lions
Chiefs over the Raiders
Colts over the Texans
Ravens over the Steelers


Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: What can I say? I’ve been waiting for the Vikings to pull their heads out of their respective asses and bench Brad Johnson for the young and extremely talented Tevares Jackson. They did, and so I’m going to go ahead and shoot for tooting my own horn in my review. The hapless Vikings upset the hapless Packers.


Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Oakland Raiders: Larry Johnson is running for the Chiefs who have to win or face a sure exit from playoff hopes. Justin Fargas is running for the Raiders, who, ah, are never going to win again this year.


Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: I know the Steelers are coming on strong of late, but really, do wins over Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Carolina really count? No. If they beat Baltimore this week, sure, I’ll admit, they’re a force once again, but until they beat a team that isn’t completely useless, there’s no way they beat one of the best squads in the AFC.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-6): The Panthers aren’t nearly the team I’d thought they’d be, and that’s with Jake Delhomme at quarterback. This Chris Weinke guy was made to lose NFL football games, and thus far he’s followed the pattern brilliantly. Despite losing last week, the Falcons are healthy, and playing well, so expect them to tame the Panthers in Atlanta.

Chicago Bears (-4) at Detroit Lions: Is this some kind of sick joke? I know the Bears are the beasts of the NFC, and can’t possibly be caught, but lets be honest, these are the Lions here. The Kevin Jones-less Lions, and no, they won’t be able to hang with half of the Bears, a team that historically tries to win every game down the stretch anyway, and has something yet to work on with consistency on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts (-9) @ Houston Texans: I have a feeling the Colts are going to get on a hot streak here that will lead them into the 2nd spot in the AFC, and a nice little run to the Super Bowl. They aren’t trying to do things they aren’t good at anymore, that died before the Bengal game, and now they’re ready to just take what defenses give them. Luckily for the Colts, Houston is ready to give them anything they want. Peyton’s only question will be, who to get the ball to, they’ll all be open.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5): With the Jags in need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt, they’ll play all out against the Patriots. I know Tom Brady and his Pats were back to their old selves last week against Houston, but Jacksonville plays well against tough opponents, and the Jags aren’t the Texans. Look for Jacksonville to outrun New England on way to a very important home win.

New Orleans Saints (+3) at New York Giants: I just don’t see how the Saints are underdogs here. I don’t thin the Giants have a chance to make the playoffs, so it’s not as if they’ll be playing with extra umph. And Drew Brees has been shredding suspect secondaries all season long, and the Giants certainly have one of those. Look for Drew and the Saints to perform well in a bounce back game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Cleveland Browns: With Tim Rattay getting the starting nod, I actually believe the Buccaneers are a tough team. Cleveland, on the other hand, has also played well since their back up, Derek Anderson, has come in for an injured Charlie Frye, but I like Cadillac Williams to have his best game of the season, Joey Galloway to light up the airways, and a Buccaneer defense to shut down the Browns.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-4.5): Buffalo has been a very good team of late, giving Bill fans something to get excited about next season, and if the cards fall right, this season too. Tennessee’s luck will run out this week in Buffalo, as there’s no way they’ll win with another piss poor offensive performance. Against a finally healthy Bills defense, trouble for the Titans will continue. But how about the YOUNG kid, he’s gonna be something!

Washington Redskins (+2) at St. Louis Rams: Personally, between me and you, I like the Rams as a team much better than I like the Skins. But, Ladell Betts is a terrible match up for the Rams. St. Louis struggles against downhill runners with a knack to break tackles, and Ladell has proven to be that. Steven Jackson will get his, but the young Redskins skill players will be the deciding factor in a Washington win on the road.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-4): The public likes the Niners here, and so do I. With Frank Gore, San Fran will control the ball all day long. Alex Smith is finally playing to his #1 pick potential, something that will be proven again on Sunday against the Cardinals. The 49ers defense has a little pop as well, but if they can’t find a way to stop Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, this game will be a late shootout.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Denver Broncos: I like Jay Culter, but he won’t be able to shred the Bengals defense like Peyton Manning did last Monday Night. And there is no way the Bengals come out as flat as a tire for the second straight week in a row, especially with their playoff lives on the line. This spread is like giving the game away. Thanks for free money, fellas.

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Seattle Seahawks: I’d love to take the Seahawks here, with the belief that they are ready to turn the corner, ready to step up in crunch time, ready to throw that killing punch. But then again, I’d love a perfect record, more money than Bill Gates, and more booty than Jennifer Lopez, but all I got is this computer, a couple hooves to type with, and an editor who claims to be an ex-ultimate fighter extraordinaire. Basically, me and the Hawks are rolling in the same boat. Seattle has proven that they aren’t ready to defend their NFC Title, while the Chargers are destined to get LT a few more touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Hawks, this game still has meaning for SD. What has Seattle done to make me think they could win this game? Win the NFC last year. Key word, last.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys: You’ve got to root for Jeff Garcia and the Eagles in this one, right? With TO running his mouth in Dallas, and Jeff Garcia playing like the pro-bowler he was when last tossing to TO, it would be sweet for Philly to win this game. And I’m not a believer in destiny, but an interview with TO after the game that has this question, “So, remember that QB you called Gay? He just smoked your boys in Dallas. Did you thoroughly enjoy them apples?” Yeah, I have to pick the Eagles in this one. Brian Westbrook to the rescue, but Jeff Garcia with the final dagger.


New York Jets (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins: This is a tough one, so I’ll go with the Jets, since they still have a shot at post season play. New York has been off and on more times than my power over the last few weeks, but I think their offensive line is coming into their own, and Chad Pennington is back to trusting his receivers down the field. Laveraneus Coles is one of the best the league has to offer, and Chad will get him the ball to win this game in Miami.

This week should be interesting, either the books are about to lose a lot of money, or I’m about to have a huge week.

2006 Fantasy Football Week 16 theRUNDOWN

This Week’s Top Team: This is when it starts getting tough for the Big Guy. The end of the year is coming, and who knows who’s going to sit and rest. That’s where I come in. Play these guys and you’re assured a big week.

QB: Drew Brees: Only because I think the Colts will run easily on the Texans, limiting Peyton Manning’s touchdown passes, I’ll go with Drew against a Giants team that should have quit already.

RB: Ladell Betts: Ladell Betts is a very safe pick here. The Rams have stunk against the run all year, and with the Redskins recent commitment to giving Betts the rock, he should post over 150 yards on Sunday.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson: LT’s proven that he’s the best player ever in fantasy football. Even in a week where winning isn’t so important for the Chargers, I still think LT will get enough chances to have a top flight day in Seattle.

WR: Terrell Owens: No pro-bowl bid, an Eagles secondary that gets torched by Plaxico Burress, this should be a huge day for Mr. O.

WR: Javon Walker: I full expect the Broncos to lose this game, but that doesn’t mean bad things for J Walk. JW will get plenty of balls throughout this contest, especially after Indy showed everyone how easy it is to throw on Cinci.

TE: Antonio Gates: I like Gates against a couple safeties that haven’t covered people all season long.

K: Adam Vinitieri: This game will take place in Houston, so the weather should be good. Adam will get his chance to kick meaningless field goals that only add to the Colts big lead. Plus, he’s money.

D: Bears: The Bears were bad last week. Do you think that sits well with them? Me neither. Do you think they’re inclined to take it out on Jon Kitna. Me to. It should be fun to watch on “Jacked Up”.


Matt Hasselbeck: Okay, this is Matt’s big comeback week. He’ll have to get rid of the ball quick and just trust his instincts against that fierce Charger defensive line, so he’ll be back to the old gun-slinging Matt. Expect Matt to surprise this week.

Jay Cutler: I almost picked this kid for my top spot, but that was too risky. I may pay for it, as he’ll have a giant day against the Bengals, despite a couple turnovers.

Edgerrin James: What happened to the days where Edge was a top pick and not just a sleeper? Oh yes, right before he relocated to Arizona. Well, those days might be coming back, as Edge and the Cardinals offensive line are much improved.

Ron Dayne: This is usually Maurice Drew’s spot, but he’s no longer a sleeper candidate, he’s just good. Even though Indy did a nice job slowing the run against the Bengals, I think they’ll have trouble this week with Dayne. Ron has been running well, so don’t be surprised if he has a nice week at home.

Anquan Boldin: ‘Quan hasn’t been balling lately, but he always torches the 49ers for at least one touchdown. Expect a big day from one of the league’s most underrated wideouts.

Marques Colston: Believe it or not, some leagues have seen Marques on the bench. Well, pick him up, because the Giants don’t have a secondary that can stop this fine Hofstra rookie. He’d be a great final game pick up if you have any pending injuries.

Algae Crumpler: Algae will take advantage of Mike Vick throwing the ball better, and a Panther defense that has seemingly packed it in.

Indy Colts DST: I’m digging the Colts this week. It should be a low scoring game, as Houston is a part of it, so the Colts are guaranteed some point bonuses. A safe play here.

LUCKY’S Week 16 Moss’S

Jon Kitna: Don’t play this guy unless you’re interested in a bad score from a QB whose bound to play less than a half. Can you say, “Lets see what the backups can do?” You betcha!

Deuce McCallister: The Giants will try to stop the run, because if they don’t, they’re in for a long day. Deuce wont’ have a great day.

Keyshawn Johnson: The Panthers are done. Don’t expect much from anyone on their team offensively. In fact, stay away from them all together unless you have Julius Peppers in an IDP league.

Randy Moss: Is this guy still playing football? Haven’t heard anything from him in sometime now.

Free NFL Picks 05-06 Week 16

Gotta Go With Jesus on Christmas!16 promises to be a good one. There are playoff hopefuls, playoff doubtfuls, and downright bad teams that don’t stand a whoring chance. This is where the questions arise; which teams are going to hold ’em and which teams are going to fold ’em? What’s more important now is what I’m going to do. I’ve got professional poker star, Jesus Ferguson, in my fridge and he’s got some secrets for you. How can you turn down a guy named Jesus on Christmas Week? Even if he is a compulsive gambler.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati (-13.5) – The Bengals have clinched their division, but that doesn’t mean they’re resting their starters. Cincinnati can still finish the season with the 2 spot in the AFC Playoffs. That would mean every team aside from the Colts would have to come to Cinci to take down the Bengals. They like that idea. The Bengals can easily win out. They will destroy the Bills this week in Cinci and they could be playing a Kansas City team that has no chance to make the post season in Week 17. Jesus said he’d hold the Bengals. In fact, Jesus says come playoff time, the Bengals pose the biggest threat to the Colts. Then again, he’s just a card player.
Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Pittsburgh (-7) @ Cleveland – If the Steelers win out, they’ll find themselves in the playoffs. The Browns have played well of late, but there is no way they get in the way of the Steel Show making it to the post season. They just aren’t that kind of team. They’ll sneak by the Raiders. They’ll beat the Titans. They won’t upset the Steelers. Big Ben struggled to produce last week, but with the way his defense played he didn’t need to throw touchdowns. This week, Ben will attempt to get his cannon up to speed right before the playoffs. Take the Steelers in a little game of smash mouth pig skin. Does any team play as tough as Pittsburgh? Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

San Diego (+1.5) @ Kansas City – The Chargers are trying to wheel and deal their way into the playoffs, but they’ll need a big upset by someone else to get them in. That’s right. The Chargers could finish 11-5 and out of the AFC playoff picture. If that be the case, (and Jesus thinks it will be), the Chargers will be the only team watching the playoffs who beat the Patriots and the Colts. The Chargers have played in some tough games, but that just seems downright screwy. Larry Johnson will shine in this game. The Chargers have “the best back in the league”, so Larry will be at his best to change that title. As the last couple weeks have gone for the Chiefs, Larry’s big game won’t be enough to clear up the AFC playoff picture. Drew Brees will be the difference in this game, assuring a big pay day for him this off season. Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Tennessee (+6) @ Miami – I was thinking Miami, but when I went to the fridge I came back thinking Tennessee. This is my (Jesus’) thought process; Tennessee is 4-10, and the Dolphins are 7-7. The Titans play pretty well against average teams, and the Dolphins are definitely average. Gus Frerotte might not play, which means Sage Rosenfels is the starter. When Sage is the starter, good things don’t happen in Miami. Four of the Dolphins’ seven wins have been by less than 5 points. Tennessee is getting 6 points and coming off a good game against the best team in the NFC. Steve McNair can still wing it. In a tight one, I’ve been convinced, fold the Dolphins.
Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Jacksonville (-6) @ Houston – Jesus says, “Hold the Jags.” Who’s to argue? The Texans have been playing much better of late, and the Jaguars always have a tough time putting the Texans away. These things won’t matter on Saturday. Throw out all history and all the previous games this season. The Jaguars need to win this game to assure their place in the playoffs. Sure, they played more like pussy cats than Jaguars last week against the 49ers, but that was last week. The Jags will dominate the Texans, just as the Houston should hope. Expect Fred Taylor to shine in a game he’ll be relied on to move the ball. David Garrard will find Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford for a couple scores as the Jaguars pummel the Texans. Don’t be confused by a couple out-of-character games last week. These two teams will return to their old selves.
Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Detroit (+3) @ New Orleans – I’m taking the Lions because, well, Jesus told me I had to do it. I was like, “Should I hold ’em or fold ’em Lions dog?” and he tells me “Hold ’em!” I was a little surprised, so I asked why. He gave me that look like not many people ask him why, then said, “Joey Harrington is auditioning for his next team. You’ve got to hold the Lions against the down-and-out Saints.” Then I was thinking Jesus’ got a good point. Joey gets the start this week in – wherever the Saints are playing this week. Joey will almost assuredly be allowed to look for a new team come this off season. Joey has two games to prove he could make it in this league. Next year will be Drew Brees time for Joey. Will anyone take a flyer on Joey Duck? The same goes for Charles Rogers. Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Dallas @ Carolina (-5) – The Panthers control the fate of so many, including themselves. If they take down the Cowboys, not only will they find themselves in the playoffs, but they’ll eliminate the Cowgirls as well. Carolina has a better defense than Washington, and look what the Skins did to Dallas. Julius Peppers will look like a world class sprinter chasing after Drew Bledsoe this weekend. Drew might not take 9 sacks in this contest. Shit, he might not make it that deep into the game. The way the Cowboys have been blocking combined with the way Drew moves, has the Panthers foaming at the mouth for this weekend’s game. Desahun Foster is a big, fast back. He’ll be given plenty of opportunities to end Dallas’ playoff dreams. Steve Smith will be unguardable, as he has been all year. Look for the Panthers to lambaste the Cowboys in Carolina. Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

NY Giants (+3) @ Washington – The New York football Giants match up well against the Redskins. New York allows Tiki Barber to carry much of the load. Washington has really struggled to stop the run lately. Even in last weeks dousing of Dallas, the Cowboys still had good rushing totals. Tiki Barber rushed for 220 last week. I don’t expect a repeat performance of that magnitude, but I do expect another giant week out of the little guy. Eli Manning might impress this week with the Redskins paying proper attention to Tiki. Amani Toomer could find more than his share of passes. The same goes for Jeremy Shockey. New York’s defense stops the straight ahead run pretty well, and that’s what Washington does on the ground. Don’t think for a second that Mark Brunell will toss 4 touchdowns like he did last week. Washington has played their way back into the mix, but this game belongs to the Giants. Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-3) – The Falcons looked absolutely terrible last week against the mighty Chicago Bears. Nobody looked as bad as Mike Vick. Brian Urlacher hit him hard early, and after that Vick couldn’t get anything done. I don’t question Mike’s winning percentage, but is it possible that he’s the problem in Atlanta? He’s one of the most dynamic players to ever play the position, but he doesn’t have the throwing ability that guys like Donovan, Daunte, Randall, or even Kordell Stewart. That’s right, even Kordell threw better in his heyday. Vick will have another chance to prove me wrong this week against the Buc’s, but I’ve got the NUTS, and something tells me that Atlanta will fold ’em this year. Tampa Bay controls their own playoff destiny. They’ve got the better team in this contest. Cadillac Williams should find plenty of rushing room against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Williams has the power to run outside and the toughness to get the tough yards. Atlanta always struggles against running backs with that kind of skill set. Don’t expect that to change any time soon.
Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

San Francisco (+9) @ St. Louis – Jesus says “Fold both these teams.” I’ve got to agree, neither team is much of a winning hand. But, like cards, in the sporting business you don’t have to have a winner to win. The 49ers are getting too many points to bet against them this week in St. Louis. Plus, they’re playing against St. Louis. St. Louis is responsible for half of the 49ers’ victories this year. Half of San Fran’s 12 losses have come by 8 points or less. Most of their big losses have come to much better teams than the Rams. Look for the Niners to play close throughout, while magically losing at the end. (Ala Kris Brown’s missed field goal two weeks ago) The Rams don’t have the quarterbacking to get the job done. The Niners have played tough all year, they’ll continue that trend. Game Date: 12/24/05 13:05 ET

Philadelphia (+1) @ Arizona – Here’s a couple of Championship contenders. Jesus asked me if he could hold the Eagles for next year. I told him he couldn’t. He decided to hold ’em this week anyway. I agree. The real question is, which team is a bigger disappointment? The Eagles were picked to run away with the NFC crown. And it’s not like they were on that path before McNabb went down for the year. The Cardinals were everyone’s sleeping pick to take the NFC West Division crown. Apparently, they missed the memo. Philly still has Andy Reid, and Reid still has one of the most explosive defenses in football. If any team in the NFL has the corners and safeties to match-up against Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, Philly does. With Kurt Warner done for the season, the hopes of getting those two playmakers the ball has greatly diminished. Expect the Eagles to do just enough to win their second straight game. That would be a winning streak. That would be Philadelphia’s second winning streak of the year. Who would have thought? Jesus shows me a printed piece of paper dated before the start of the season claiming the Eagles miss the playoffs and says, he would have thought. This guy’s good!
Game Date: 12/24/05 16:10 ET

Indianapolis @ Seattle (-7) – “Hold the Hawks. Seattle would win in a heads up game even if the Colts cared about the outcome of the game. Alexander’s going to be a Colt headache.” (Ferguson) I don’t know if I agree with Fergy on the idea that the Hawks would beat the Colts anyway, but I can’t argue that the outcome of this game will land in favor of Seattle. If Seattle wins this week they clinch home-field throughout the playoffs. That’s big for Seattle. If Shaun Alexander scores three more touchdowns this year he’ll take home the all time single season touchdown record. That’s big for Seattle and Shaun. In a game that means nothing for the Colts, I can’t expect more than a quarter out of Peyton Manning and even less from Edge. The same goes for Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Look for the Hawks to put a pretty good smack down on the best team in football’s second string. Game Date: 12/24/05 16:15 ET

Oakland @ Denver (-13) – The Broncos are still playing for a couple of home games in the playoffs. It’s between Cincinnati and Denver, and both teams are 11-3. This week should be an easy task for the Broncs. If Oakland hadn’t lost all hope before Week 15, they sure have now. A couple big miscues led to a game winning field goal by Phil Dawson last week in the game against Cleveland. The Raiders just can’t do anything right. Denver isn’t as good as people think, but they are a tower of greatness and success when placed next to Oakland. Kerry Collins is still a pile of crap and Randy Moss hasn’t done much to prove his worth. Lamont Jordan is having a solid year, but Denver’s defense is playing equally as good. They’ll have the upper hand on Saturday. Mike Anderson will eclipse 1000 yards in this game, making him the one billionth different back to gain a grand in Shanahan’s offense. Take the Broncos in what has the making of a shellacking.
Game Date: 12/24/05 16:20 ET

Chicago (-6.5) @ Green Bay – The Bears are a good football team. I made it on the bandwagon last week, and Jesus is on it with me this week. “Hold this hand! These Bears might even win a playoff game with Rex on board.” Ferguson is right. Rex Grossman gives the Bears a piece of the puzzle they have been playing without all year. Rex can get the ball to off season signee, Mushin Muhammad and speedster Bernard Berrien. Kyle just didn’t have the experience to do so. Chicago’s defense is much better than the Ravens. How does that sound Brett? Brett Favre might go his fourth straight game without a touchdown pass. Without Samkon Gado in the backfield, a shutout in Green Bay sounds like a very good possibility. Give it up to Lovie Smith. He handles everything with class and makes the right decisions for his football team. Good thing he doesn’t listen to Joe Theisman. Bad thing I have to hear that idiot talk. He must have said, “I would leave Kyle Orton in,” ten times during the Bears – Falcons game last Sunday night. Then Rex came in and played well. Theisman was still chattering away. Would someone fire that asshole?
Game Date: 12/25/05 17:05 ET

Minnesota (+3) @ Baltimore – When I asked Jesus what he’d do with the Vikings, he said, he’d hold ’em at least one more week. That makes perfect sense to me, hell, it makes dollars. The Vikings are better than the Ravens. Don’t be tricked by Boller’s big game and Jamal Lewis’ 100 yard performance on Monday Night. Boller threw a couple of passes, that if played right, would have been interceptions instead of touchdowns. Boller still doesn’t have the velocity to make most NFL throws. Jamal is still running tentative. Baltimore has played better the last few weeks, but Minnesota still has a chance. That alone should lead them over the Ravens. The Viking defense is one of the league’s best at getting takeaways. Baltimore will help them out in that area, Jesus and I are sure of it. Brad Johnson has had a Cinderella-type year, he’ll continue the comeback with a win in Baltimore. Game Date: 12/25/05 20:40 ET

New England @ NY Jets (+5) -This time Jesus and I disagree. I don’t think the Patriots have anything to play for, in which case they’ll sit Tom Brady in turn giving away all chances of winning, even against the lowly Jets. Ferguson thinks that Tom Brady’s presence on the sideline is enough to lead his team to victory. My good buddy, and advisor, Jesus, has made some very good arguments thus far, and he might have a point. But I write articles and he plays cards, and I’m taking the Jets. Bollinger is playing better lately, and the Patriot second stringers aren’t much to be scared of. Little Doug Flutie will be out getting reps. That’s always good TV.
Game Date: 12/26/04 21:10 ET


Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 16

I followed up my best week of the year with a buck wild 8-7-1 performance last week. As usual, some games boggled my mind, (For example; Miami upsetting a New England team that still had something to play for) but I managed to add to my winning ways pulling off an 8-7-1 record and moved my season record to 111-101-7. Who would’ve known TO would go down in Philly and Eli Manning would have a good day against the Steel Show? Not me. But to my credit, I predicted another fine performance by Billy Volek, also saying that Big Ben would do good things against New York. Both things happened while my bets went to the house. My wife didn’t send me back to the sofa bed though. Don’t know if that had more to do with it being cold at night or not but either way… Lester remains lucky, heh heh heh. Lucky’s money picks, Jacksonville over Green Bay, Larry Johnson over Denver, and New Orleans over Tampa Bay; went down as smooth as white rice. I’ve got two weeks to bolster my fine year, so let’s let it ride!Green Bay (+3) at Minnesota – Green Bay lost to Jacksonville last week, but so what? The Jag’s have been playing better than either of these two teams. The Vikings should have lost to the Lions a week ago, but pulled out a “W”. Randy Moss should be as healthy as he’s been all year, but even in a dome the Packer “O” should easily penetrate the gaping Viking defense. Ahman Green and company will get some much-deserved respect on the ground, and Brett will terrorize a secondary that finds itself at the bottom of the NFL food chain. Minnesota will always find a way to put up a fight, but I expect the Pack to win this game. Game Date: 12/24/04 15:00 ET

Oakland at Kansas City (-8) – The Chiefs are riding one of the hottest players in football, Larry Johnson. I must say I’ve loved the kid’s ability since his 2000 plus yard season back at Penn State. After gaining 104 yards rushing on just 7 carries two weeks ago against Tennessee, Vermeil decided it would be best to feed him the ball all day against Denver. He was right. Johnson carried the pig 30 big times for 151 yards. Big time. Johnson will get his share of yards against a poor run defense in Oakland. The spread is quite high, but the Chiefs have the offense to get it done.
Game Date: 12/24/04 17:00 ET

Denver at Tennessee (+4) – Denver has given fans reason to throw up. That’s right, the Broncos have done their best to fall right out of playoff contention losing 3 of their last 4. I love this stuff. I like to think Shanahan is doing his damnedest to test Bronco ownership. Jake Plummer has thrown a numbing 19 interceptions, most in crucial situations, and most leaving Shanahan’s face as red as a radish. His ability to ruin a completely productive rushing attack has me wondering why Mike doesn’t have Jake hand off more often. Did I mention their 1 win in the last 4 games came against Miami. Yikes! I’d love to see Billy Volek throw the ball around the “improved” Denver defense this weekend. Something tells me I might just get my wish. Either way, I can’t put money, or advise you to put money down on a team that has lost 3 of 4, and only beaten the Dolphins… by 3 measily points. Seems ridiculous right? Take the new version of the Run N’ Shoot, with emphasis on SHOOT!
Game Date: 12/25/04 20:30 ET

Atlanta (+4.5) at New Orleans – Atlanta doesn’t have much to play for, but should they be an underdog against the Saints? Oh no! The Falcons pulled out an overtime victory over a tough Panthers team last week. They won’t be risking the health of their players to long in this one, but long enough to pull out a victory against a New Orleans team that is done. Even though they seem to play their best when the season is over, I can’t find enough reason to take them as 5-point favorites. That’s just ludicrous.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5) – Pittsburgh won’t let up now that they have the best record in the AFC. They aren’t a let up kind of team. They did manage to play a close one with the Giants, who have been pathetic since their fast start. That’s a good reason for them to get back out on the field and remember how to dominate. They have a chance to put a big dent, if not an end to Baltimore’s playoff hopes by beating them this weekend. Ray Lewis and company always seem to find a way when their season is on the brink of extinction, but the Steel Show might be too much to handle. Big Ben played a good game last week, minus a couple of picks. On that note, he will be back to his old tricks, handing the ball off to Bettis and or Staley this Sunday. Look for Pittsburgh to win a war at home.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Chicago at Detroit (-6) – What happened to Joey Harrington last week? After throwing for a total of 300 yards in his last three games, he almost single handily beat the Vikings last week with 361 yards. Though, often injured, Roy Williams is getting utilized again, and Joey is showing he might not be as terrible as he’s shown the last few weeks. They still lost though, so buyers beware. I’m taking Detroit here, not only because of their inspiring offensive performance a week ago, but also because of the pathetic team the Bears have turned out to be. I don’t care what they did to amaze me this year, they are still pathetic. Krenzel, Hutchinson, Jeff George, I don’t care who they put back there. All three of those guys don’t belong starting on Sundays. Detroit might very well win by default.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Houston at Jacksonville (-7) – I like to bet on Houston because they are tough. They have a solid offense, especially when David Carr shows up, and a resilient defense, that gets better and every day their young guys get older. But, it’s not their year, and not their week. The Jags showed me a lot by beating the Packers last week. I see their goal, and Houston won’t stop the Jags from reaching the playoffs. Jacksonville has a born leader at QB as well as a stud running back who is playing his best football of the year. Their run D, which was mediocre last year, has returned with the health of Marcus Stroud. The feisty Texan team will find it tough to produce when their horse, Dominic Davis, can’t get free. This game is too important for the Jaguars to lose. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (-6.5) – Eli Manning played pretty well against a Steeler D that has proven to be one of the tops in the league. But, like many rookies, Eli won’t be consistent week after week. In fact, I see him struggling against an improved Bengal team. Eli doesn’t have a defense to rely on, and it will show against a Cincy squad with some weapons. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

San Diego (+7) at Indianapolis – I’m starting to realize why Eli Manning didn’t want to come to San Diego. He didn’t want to be stuck behind a Pro-Bowler. Drew Brees got voted in by fans and peers this last week, and he gets my congratulations. He’s not only a lock for most improved, but should finish in the top 5 for MVP voting. The MVP, of course, will be Peyton Manning. What a match-up this week. Both these teams would like to continue their winning streaks on into the playoffs, and if they meet in the AFC championship, this game could very well decide who plays at home and who travels across the US. Is that something to play for? Indeed. Though Peyton has burned my predictions, I can’t bet against the Chargers and 7 points. Their defense is better than an improved Colts D, and their offense is almost as good. Ladainian Tomlinson showed what he could do last week. The Chargers also showed they know how to win, throwing only 6 times last week, when running would get the job done. I like these Chargers. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Buffalo (-11.5) at San Francisco – The Bills are trying to sneak into the playoffs behind Willis McGahee. To bad he’s out this week, and probably next. Good thing they play the worst team in the NFL this week. I read an article this week that claimed Ken Dorsey and Tim Rattay should get a combat star for playing behind their pathetic offensive line. Sure, but the rest of the team should get some friendly fire protection for playing with those two guys at quarterback. Honestly, the more I look at the 49ers the more I believe USC could take them. Buffalo, even with Drew Bledsoe as their primary option, should be able to produce enough points to beat the horrendous Niners by 2 touchdowns. They might even slip it in the playoff backdoor, and if they do, ha, take that Cowboys!
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET

New England at N.Y. Jets(+2) – The Jet’s are underdogs at home… they must be playing New England. Last time the Patriots took advantage of costly Jet mistakes, but not this time. New York has found Chad Pennington, who has in turn rediscovered Santana Moss. I warned everyone earlier this year that, “If Pennington can find a way to get Santana into the offense, watch out.” Well, watch out! Consider Moss found. Moss doubled his touchdown receptions on the year, and collected 5 passes for 80 yards. Curtis Martin is still Curtis Martin, which means he’s dangerous. The Jets D remains stingy. Look for the Jets to give the Patriots their first losing streak in a long time. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET

Arizona at Seattle (-7) – Oh boy, Seattle, what can I do with you? Last weeks collision with a much better Jets squad leaves the Seahawks reeling through the playoff race. Fortunately, they could very well lose two of two and get in. But that won’t happen. The Hawks will have everyone back next week, including the return of Koren Robinson. If anything, that gives Matt more options. The Hawks might even make it to the Super Bowl. The Eagles are without the man (TO) who gave their passing game credibility, and everyone else is just average. If the Hawks can pick up a little confidence on their way in to the post season, they might just be able to pull it off. Everyone sees the talent except them. It’s time to realize what they are, and start playing like it. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay – Carolina is good. They barely lost to the Falcons, who have already clinched a first round bye. They could still find themselves in the playoffs with two wins in the final two weeks. After their turnaround, I’ve got to admit, anything is possible, especially for them, even more so in the NFC. If they don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because they aren’t one of the better teams in the NFC, it will be because of the injuries that killed them in the beginning of the season. Stick with a team with a chance here, not to mention a much better team in Carolina. Brian Griese has fallen back to earth, as expected, and so have the hopes of Gruden’s Buccaneer squad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phil Simms sometime in this one. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Washington(-2) at Dallas – The Skins are better than Dallas, although I’d love the Cowboys to win in hopes that their draft pick selection would get worse, I can’t ever really root for them. I definitely can’t bet on them. Yeah, one could argue that they put up a good fight against Philly last week, but let’s be honest; Philly was never worried about losing that game. They knew all along, all they had to do was walk down the field and dive in the end zone. That’s what they did. Washington has played better of late. The Cowboys struggle when they can’t run. If the Redskins have one thing, it’s a defense that is tough as nails. Now if they could just get a quarterback to show he’s worth something. The Skins will give the ball to a revitalized Clinton Portis this Sunday, who will in turn crush a defense that has been sorry all year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Cleveland at Miami (-7.5) – Talk about a pathetic game. If this game got canceled, I don’t think anyone would argue. The Browns have only looked more pathetic win since Butch Davis did the right thing by resigning. The Dolphins have only gotten better, but still have much to ask this year for Christmas. The Dolphins beat the Patriots on Monday Night, which, unfortunately, was their brightest moment of the year. While this game pits the two teams that have lost their coaches to frustration, the Dolphins have been better since the move, while the Browns have been horrendous. Look for Miami to dominate for the first time this year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 20:35 ET

Philadelphia (+3) at St. Louis – Even if TO is out, McNabb plays 2 quarters, Westbrook gets 7 carries, and the defense plays half their backups, the Eagles still shouldn’t be underdogs. The Rams are horrible. Hasn’t anyone realized this? Let’s look at their last five games…. Oh yes, there it is, 1-4 with their only win being against a real tough 49er team. Now do you see? The Rams aren’t worth a bet, ever. They got beat 31-7 by the Cardinals last week, for God’s sake. My prediction; Philly plays like a team that is looking for offense with their stud receiver out. They whip St. Louis early and often. Then their second string comes in and adds to the destruction. Underdogs? You’ve got to be kidding me. Game Date: 12/27/04 21:05 ET


Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester