Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 17

Last Week of the season – I had a nice Pay Picks week last week, but struggled with my free plays once again. This week looks a little more simple, and I expect a winning system out of both my free and pay picks. That is why I’m just going to publish them all for you to see. Good luck, and lets go out with a bang!

Saturday’s Game…

New England (-13)
@ N.Y. Giants:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

What can I say? Maybe I’m a guy that wants to see the Patriots go undefeated so I don’t have to ever listen to interviews of the “perfect Dolphins” ever again – hell, I’ll even admit it, yeah, I am that guy, and I don’t want to hear what Don Shula has to say. But I am also a smart guy that sees a Giants team that will almost surely crumble under pressure anyway, and when they feel themselves doing exactly that, will most likely take their free get out of the game card and begin to rest their starters. The Giants aren’t good, and the Patriots are one of the best teams of all time. I don’t see New England walking into this game and struggling at all. This tank of a team will roll into the post season with a big win on Saturday Night.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Eagles are playing well, and the Bills have struggled down the stretch, but I’m not so sure the Eagles will come out and play with passion in the final week of a season where they aren’t competing for anything but a win. In fact, I’m willing to bet that the Bills make a strong push at winning this game, despite the way McNabb and this offense have been playing. Trent Edwards and this group of young Bills are building toward next season, and a big win to end the year is always a perfect way to do that. At 5Dimes, the line is 9, and that is way too much for an inconsistent Eagles team that doesn’t have anything to play for.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Bucs really stunk it up last week against the 49ers, but the Panthers are bad, and I think even without Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway, the Bucs will do enough to down the horrible Panthers. Steve Smith is finally getting the ball a little bit for the Panthers, but the Bucs have good smart defensive players all over the field, and I think they’ll shut down the Panthers in Tampa.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I just don’t think Green Bay’s starters will play much of this game, despite the overall feeling that the Packers need to end the season on a good note after struggling mightily against the Bears last week. Green Bay is already in, they already have a bye set up, and even though Brett will probably play a couple quarters in this game, I just think the Lions really want to get to .500 after failing to make the playoffs despite a great start. Jon Kitna is a solid quarterback, and a leader that rarely allows his team to give up. They’ll play hard in Green Bay, and probably pull out a win to end the year.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

I’m sorry to say it (actually I don’t care that much at all) but the Falcons are a dead franchise right now. They have a coach that won’t be there next year. A group of quarterbacks that will almost surely be dedicated to backup duty next year. A bunch of veterans that could be cut or traded in the off-season, and a complete organization that lost out on hiring Bill Parcells and has no idea what they are going to do moving forward. I know that Hawks don’t have much to play for, but I have to be honest, Seneca Wallace and the Hawks backup players are a group I’d favor over Atlanta’s lost team. And honestly, I get the feeling that the Hawks are going to play their starters longer than many think. This game seems too easy to me. That’s what scares me. Just for careful’s sake, I’m laying just a medium bet on this game this week – I’m not the best at picking Seattle games anyway, but I just can’t stay away from this one.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

This is a weak play, if a play at all. But since I pick them all, I’m rolling with Chad Pennington in this one. He’s pretty much competing for a job somewhere else next year, and he’s accurate and competitive enough to give the Chiefs some problems on Sunday. The Jets didn’t play well at all last year, but their strong push last week in a loss to Tennessee impressed me. They didn’t put up much in terms of points, but they did play strong defensively. If the Jets can effectively stop the Titans who are doing anything they can to get to the playoffs, then yeah, I think the Chiefs should be an easy win in the final week.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I like the home team in this one, but just barely. I’d like to think that Ken Whisenhunt will get his guys read to play, and Kurt Warner is still petitioning for a starting gig somewhere next season. The Cardinal play inspired football at home, and they are relatively healthy offensively and still can be solid from time to time on the defensive side of the ball. I like both these teams in the future, and think both will play a solid game, I just think the Cardinals will have more to play for and a coach that will get all that he can from them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers have played solid football over the last couple weeks, and Frank Gore seems to be healthy and running had – but the Browns have a whole heck of a lot more to win and lose on this game, and they are just that much better than San Fran, even with the Niners playing better as of late. Derek Anderson is a free agent at season’s end, and even though he’ll almost surely be back in Cleveland, you can bet he’ll want to play extra well with his future in the crosshairs. I’m expecting Cleveland to put up a bunch of points on way to this victory, if it’s in vein or not.

Elite Picks for Week 17

*4 NFL Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Ravens are done, and they’re even more upset that their lame duck head coach is back in the saddle next season. They have a bunch of playoff hungry vets that have no chance at getting to the show this season, and that has crushed this teams’ will. A lot of changes look to be coming next season, and the frustrations has already begun to show. The Steelers still need to win for playoff seeding and the right to possibly skip Jacksonville in the 1st round. Even if Big Ben doesn’t play, Charlie Batch has proven he can get the job done, and the Ravens are bad enough to make me believe he has a very good chance. Just a field goal? Yeah, I like the Steel-Show a lot, here.

*3 NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Everybody wants to say that Denver is ready to get back and win to end the season after the whole Phillip Rivers incident last week against San Deigo, but it’s just not going to happen. The Vikings are way too physical for the Broncos defensive front, their running backs are too talented, and they need a win to get into the playoffs. They need more than just a win, but a win gives them a chance, and I believe, that after last week’s slip up to the Redskins, they’ll at least want to go out swinging. I like their chances in Denver, and think they should absolutely obliterate the Broncos on Sunday.

*5 NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish. Too much on the line for San Diego to roll over, and the Raiders aren’t good enough to halt what’s coming, even if their #1 pick, JaMarcus Russell, is getting his first start in the NFL.

*3 NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I’m not a big Saints fan, but I have to be honest, they have to beat the Bears in Chicago, right? Kyle Orton isn’t a frightening young quarterback, despite his warewolf beard. He doesn’t make as many mistakes as the other Bear quarterbacks, but I don’t think he’ll put up enough points to fight off a Saints team that actually has a small sliver of hope left. Chicago’s secondary is still a huge question mark, despite the way they played last week against Green Bay. They won’t have two great weeks in a row, they just aren’t good enough to do so.

*6 NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

The Colts have nothing to play for and the Titans can bring pressure. Expect Indy’s starters to play very little and the Titans to win this game by a couple touchdowns. Indy’s head coach has always believed in his own way, and risking his best players to end Tennessee’s season doesn’t seem like his prerogative. Strong action here.

*3 NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.

*4 NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk. This isn’t the strongest play I have this weekend, but I like it enough to drop a few bucks on the Bengals in Miami.

Monday Night Football Game

*4 NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

This game seems easy enough. The Cowboys are pretty much cashing in their great regular season, and leasing a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t need to win this game, and I don’t think we’ll see much of their 1st team talent on either side of the ball. No need to risk injury, even if it does mean strangling the playoff breath out of your rival. Todd Collins has played well since taking over for Jason Campbell, and the Redskins have dedicated their run toward the post season to their fallen teammate, Sean Taylor. They have a playoff spot to play for and a motivated group of guys ready to win. I think they’ll take this one by a couple touchdowns.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 16

16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there’s time, I just have to figure out who’s playing and who’s resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are some interesting dilemmas going into the week – this is how it looks from the LL highchair…

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams. This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The Steelers have to think they’re going to go into St. Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough, and especially against a secondary that is allowing passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams receiving crew can put up some points, and don’t expect the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good away team, and the pressure is building on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I’ve been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I think I might be on to something with this one.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic outing last week against the Eagles – and the Panthers have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week for things not to get back to the way they should be with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers. This game feels too easy.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Bengals are lost. I won’t put all the money in the world on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other, and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that. But in the end, I still think the Bengals don’t have enough consistency on offense, and that will be their undoing at home against the Brownies.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course, that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn’t make a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet. As a common rule, it’s usually smart to take a good team over another team that they lost to earlier in the year.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

I also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should get out of hand right away. The Raiders won’t have their best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville, especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and the Giants aren’t. The Bills want to win, the Giants have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don’t know if there’s anything else needed in this one. This seems like a great bet to me.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts didn’t seem to care much about winning last week, and I don’t think they’ll put out a full effort doing so this week, either. I don’t think the Colts will play their starters for much of the game, and that gives a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they haven’t been the most consistent team lately. One thing they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier in the season, and they usually find away to put up a pretty good fight against their conference rival. I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry Johnson might play, but I don’t see that as a start that would change this game any way or the other. Sure, LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn’t strong enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game in KC just doesn’t scare opposing defenses, which probably plays to the Lions strengths. I’m taking the Lions, even though there’s no shot they reach Jon Kitna’s prediction.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):

At my due date, this game still doesn’t have an active line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore, I just won’t bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight up, but can’t really even get close to imagining what kind of line these guys are going to come up with in this game. I’m not sure what the game means to Seattle, but I’m also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower release, this is his second game ever, and he’s going up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this game.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team that has really played like donkey poop all season long. I don’t know what happened to Shanny’s bunch this time around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can’t even run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall, and the Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie is just the physical freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner, Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like an easy pick, even with the big spread.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 15

Week 15, and with only 3 weeks to go (counting this one) you can very well say that the football regular season is in the midst of it’s stretch run. Don’t fret, there’s still playoffs, and more time sensitive draft to wrap your mind around this spring. But for now, lets get at this NFL Picks thing, and see if I can’t come up with some solid reasons to take the teams I do… Bingo, Bango, Bongo!

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

This game should be an interesting one. The Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives, and even without Matt Schaub, the Texans are always trying to prove they belong. I’d like to see the Texans fight and claw their way to .500 for the season, but with injuries, and no real rushing game, I just don’t see that happening. The Broncos are freaks, and can’t figure out if they want to be good or not, but Selvin Young and Travis Henry can both be solid rushing threats against the Texans, and I honestly don’t think the Texans defensive front will do well against that chopp-em blocking scheme from the Broncos. Demecco Ryans is magic, but even he won’t be able to shut down the running game in Denver. Jay Cutler is beginning to figure it out, and seems to be at the top of that quarterback class right about now. I’m taking the Broncos on Thursday Night. (A side note, though, I am 0-2 thus far since the NFL Network took over on Thursday’s)

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Bengals are better on the road than they are at home, and the 49ers are just brutal. They’ll be starting… ________ (Insert name there) at quarterback, and unless you are a football savvy soldier like me, I’m guessing you wouldn’t be able to tell me much about the youngster that will be getting fed to the Tigers from Cincinnati. The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad? I don’t think so, as this game seems pretty simple to me. Take the team that can score points against the team that can’t – and don’t try to out-think yourself about which pick is “sharp” or road and home team chances, or who and why such team has more to play for. The 49ers are bad, and they won’t win another game this season.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Browns were better defensively last week, but can you really count that? They were playing against the Jets, a team that was surely looking over the hill towards next week’s match-up with their divisional big brothers. Anyway, the Browns won’t be able to stop the accurate passing of Trent Edwards and will get especially diced up by the running backs in Buffalo. This is a huge game for both teams, but the Bills are playing better all around ball than the Browns right now. Gotta take them to get an upset win on the road in Cleveland.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I think the Rams could give the Packers some trouble, but only if Marc Bulger is fully dressed and his mooshy brain is ready to be productive. If he’s not starting, I’m taking no credit for this pick, regardless of how it turns out. I think the Rams aren’t a bad squad, and could even walk out of St. Louis with a win over the dominant Packers – but I’m not going that far just yet. I’m just saying, the Rams aren’t as bad as their record, and if Green Bay comes in with the mind-set that they are, they’ll take some lumps on Sunday. I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I actually think the Patriots have a good chance of covering this spread. When you consider Eric Mangini’s history with the Pats, and the fact that he was the one who snitched Belichick out for “spy-gate” I’d say this line is right on the button. I hate 24 point spreads in the NFL, and I say stay away from it, but I like the Patriots chances in this one much better than I liked them against eh Eagles and Ravens (the other big spreads they couldn’t beat). The Pats are back to dominating the game, and they have a huge reason to be up and ready to poop all over the Jets. They are at home, and you can bet the Jets, no matter what they do in practice this week, won’t be ready for the Patriots. Still, 24 points, seems a little ridiculous, no?

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away favorite here, and I don’t like it all that much. The Raiders are just bad, and the Colts are starting to pick it up everywhere. Their defense has been pretty damn good all season long, and now their offense, behind Prince Peyton, is rolling on all cylinders (well all the healthy ones anyway). I expect a huge running day from Addai, and probably Kenton Keith, considering he’ll get about 15 garbage carries that could very well lead to a glorious day for some fantasy football risk takers. I’m taking no risks here, as I think the Raiders will be limited by the Colts defense, and they won’t be able to stop the 2nd team.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I like the Eagles to keep this one relatively close. They were already beat up by the Giants in Philly, so I think they’ll come back to Dallas and put up a big fight. The Cowboys played pretty bad last week against the Lions, and Philly’s coaching staff can game plan with the best of them. My guess is they’ll learn a thing or two from the Lions ground success, and instill a little bit of their own with one of the best running backs in football. Westy should have a better day this time around, and while both teams will put up their points, I think the Cowboys will win a close one late. 10 points is pretty ridiculous in this rivalry.
Monday Night Football Game

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Kyle Orton… Hmmm… He was 10-5 as a starter, but you have to think this is a different Bears defense than it has been in years’ past. In fact, if you don’t think that, you’re obviously lacing your Egg-Nog up a little too strong, and you should tone it down a bit before you get too woosy and experiment the strength of your lighter on your dried out Christmas tree. But, that doesn’t mean that the Bears don’t have a chance – in fact, I think this game just stinks as far as value is concerned. I’m taking the Vikings, because the Bears can’t really stop the run, and Minnesota has two very good options on the ground, three if you count Tarvaris Jackson. Kyle Orton won’t do much with his arm, or you’d think Lovie would have tried him earlier in the season, before he went back to the Grossman option. Anyway, We shall see. I’m betting on the Vikings here, because they can stop the only thing the Bears do even close to well, the run game. And honestly, they aren’t very good at running the ball either.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 14

Last week’s dedication to Winnie Cooper and the luck she gave, only propelled me to 3-5 with my free picks, and 5-3 in my elite selections – but I did pull off enough wins to keep me even, and hopefully this week she can shed a little light on the luck of Week 14 and take me to the promise land. Here are my free picks for Week 14 – only 4 more weeks to go!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post. Clinton Portis might be limited in this game, and while the Bears defense has been a shell of their former selves, they seem to be getting back to basics and attacking the line of scrimmage. I also like the dynamic that Adrian Peterson brings to the Bears’ offense. He catches the ball very well, which opens up a lot of plays that weren’t there with Benson in the game. It forces opposing defenses to account for Peterson’s receiving ability, and that’s always a good thing.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

No running game in Detroit = big loss to the visiting Cowboys. Dallas shuts down the rush enough as it is, but without any hint of a decent rushing attack, the Lions, and more reasonably Jon Kitna, will be bait in the water for Wade Phillips’ shark attack defense. I would expect sacks and turnovers galore for Dallas’s D – and any extra chances will surely amount to points for Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ passing game, because the Lions secondary is one of the weakest in the League. Detroit’s rush defense was exposed last week as well, and Roy Williams will be out for this game, and most likely the rest of the season. How the sky has fallen for Jon Kitna-Little and his big expectations for the Lions. To salvage their season, they’ll need a huge upset over the best team in the NFC.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack. I’m not a huge fan of either side on this game, as I think the value is minimal. But in a crunch, I’d take the Bills – they are better, and Buffalo is always a tough place to play, you know, because it’s painfully cold and pretty much brutal all around.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

I like the Eagles to rebound this week against the Giants. They lost to the Hawks last week, but that was mainly due to 4 interceptions by the interception king, A.J. Feeley. Yes, the guy everyone was crowning last week after the Patriot game has 7 picks in 2 games – in a 16 game season, he’s on pace to throw just around, I don’t know, 56 interceptions (in my head quick math, not caring enough to double check). McNabb is apparently in for this week, and while we shouldn’t forget what happened to McNabb last time these two teams met, I’m guessing the Eagles will play better and actually consider blocking for their quarterback this time around. The bottom line is, I don’t think the Giants are good, at all, and while they’ve used a little luck to sneak by more than their fair share of teams this year, it will come a crashing halt sometime soon, and I think it all starts in Philly. Westbrook is magic – don’t forget that one truth.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Jets have killed me a few times this season, but the Browns seem to play to the level of their opponents, and the Jets can trick you good. See, they have a terrible record, and have played abysmal football in week’s past, but they also have a maturing offensive line, and a coach that is starting to understand the importance of a rushing attack. The Browns have a terrible defense (just about as bad as the Jets – except New York has done a little to impress me over the last few weeks) and their offense won’t be able to cover road games in which they are favored by more than a field goal. Look for the Jets to get yet another win, and bring the Browns back down to earth a little bit.
Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure. Shaunna Alexander actually ran hard in the second half of last week’s game against the Eagles, but I’m not sure if that was just a one time thing for the former touchdown machine. I’m guessing it is, and that he’ll be back to folding like a lawn chair as soon as he sees contact this week in front of the home town fans. The Cardinals may be hurting at receiver a little bit, but they are deep at the position, and I don’t think Boldin’s absence will be that much of a kick in the butt. Getting 8 points from 5Dimes on Wednesday, I had to move to the direction of the Cardinals. If Ken Whisenhunt has shown me one thing, it’s that, the more he gets to know a team, the better he prepares his team to beat that squad. Well, this is the second meeting with the Hawks, and while it’s tough to beat a good team twice in a season, I don’t think it will be hard to keep the game close. Take all those points and the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

I don’t think Mark Redman will be the answer the Falcons have been searching for since Vick went wacko and did the deeds that got him where he is today. Bobby Patrino continues to give the ball to Warrick Dunn, despite horrid numbers, even though the ever explosive Jerious Norwood wears Falcons’ garb to every Atlanta game. The only way I can make sense of it is, Atlanta knows they are an abysmal pile of oozy cow pie, and they don’t want Norwood to get hurt when he doesn’t need to. It’s either that or Patrino has been drinking heavily before games, and forgets that his best player isn’t on the field for 85% of their offensive snaps. Either way, this is an interesting mess the Falcons have gotten in, and I’m not so sure they’re going to get out of it any time soon. New Orleans isn’t good, but they aren’t too bad on the road in recent years, and Atlanta will be stoked to see stars like Bush, Brees, and Colston, so they aren’t going to be hostile, more thankful than anything else. This is a big Monday Night game for the wingless Falcons, but in the end, when all is said and done, at the end of the day, when the good has been sifted from the bad, it just won’t matter, even with a bunch of poorly used clich├ęs.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 13

Lucky number 13… Is it time to go back to the well and call up WINNIE Cooper? Ah yes, for those of you who have been following me over the years, you’ll surely recall how I called on Winnie to help win me some games in one glorious Week 13 a few Novembers ago. And if you recall that, you’ll definitely recall how I ended up dancing a dance of perfection, ravaging the NFL to the tune of a 16-0 week. Well, hopes are high, and Winnie’s poster (fat head) is getting put up on the board. Here’s my free picks for week 13.

Thursday’s Game…

Green Bay Packers (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

These are two very good teams that rival the best the league has to offer. That being said, I do think Dallas is a little better than Green Bay, but just a little. Defensively, I actually like what the Packers do more than the Cowboys. They have a solid secondary with two safeties that can really move on the ball in the air. Dallas has two huge hitters and can be taken advantage of deep down the middle, or in man to man coverage with either safety. I think these teams are very equal offensively, with the Packers having the slight upper hand. This is the best the NFC has, and that being said, I think both teams feel as though they have something to prove on Thursday. This should be one hell of a game, a close one, and getting more than a touchdown, I have to go with a Packers team that should probably be undefeated right now. Yes, believe it. They are a self destructive second half away from a perfect record. Each team has had their close games, and I see this being yet another one.

Sunday’s Games…

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 9:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Falcons are just about done winning games this season, and the Rams just started. Despite losing last week at home to Seattle, St. Louis played a pretty solid game, and still has one of the best offensive units in the game when healthy. The Falcons don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with St. Louis, unless the Rams have an injury to Bulger or just come out flat-lined. I like Steven Jackson to exude some force in this one, especially against a defensive tackle group full of backups. I’m sure the public will be riding the Rams in this one, but I honestly think they’ll win by more than a touchdown.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (-5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I hate to bet on this game at all, honestly. There are too many emotions floating around in Washington, and I’m not privy to the team enough to know how they’ll react as a unit. I know they are hurting bad after the murder of their friend and teammate, Sean Taylor. However, I like how the Redskins have been playing lately despite their losing ways. They are fighters, and I’m not so sure that the Bills, without their 1st and 2nd string running backs, will be able to compete from start to finish. I’m taking the Redskins here, but it’s not one of my strongest plays of the week. Basically, when I’m not sure, I lean on a team to step up in time of emotional crisis.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings:
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I know that the Lions are less than stellar on the road, but I don’t buy how well the Vikings played last week, and I also am not bidding on the Lions fall down the NFC. Detroit has gotten away from what made them strong, and I’m guessing they’ll get back to their open attack this week against a weak Vikings secondary. From what I’ve seen, the NFL doesn’t really work in runs. The Vikings were one of the more dominant teams in Week 12, and my guess is they’ll struggle in Week 13. I like the money line for the lions here, but getting more than a field goal, I’ll roll with Detroit to get a big road win to keep them in the playoff hunt.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Titans to rebound here. I don’t believe the hype that Albert Haynesworth’s absence has caused all the problems with Tennessee, but obviously getting him back would give the team a boost against a Texans team that is playing pretty solid football right now. Andre Johnson is back, and if the Titans can’t pressure Matt Schaub into some mistakes, it could be another long day for Tennessee’s secondary. However, I think they’ll easily shut down the Texan rushing attack, and force Schaub into 3rd and long situations – that will be the key for Tennessee to cover this one.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Bengals had a nice performance last week against the Titans, dominating in most aspects of the game, and putting up nice offensive numbers while completely shutting down Vince Young and the Titans. They got up early, and actually took some chances in the game, and that’s what the Bengals need to do to be successful. However, the Steelers, in my opinion, are still one of the NFL’s best teams. They play very well at home, and the also play big in big games. I think this is a huge game for Pittsburgh after the 3-0 ridiculously sloppy game last Monday Night. Plus, I just can’t bet on the Bengals because of one good game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think Brian Westbrook is trouble for the Seahawks, I like the Hawks team more than Philly’s but Seattle plays poor on the road, and they didn’t play well last week despite beating St. Louis. They aren’t strong enough with their run game, and Philly has the physical corners to disrupt the Hawks short stuff. And like I said, Brian Westbrook is going to be a Hawk killer on Sunday. I’m not sure if McNabb is playing or not, but A.J. Feeley can do enough to keep the Hawks secondary honest. Reggie Brown’s size will help the Eagles keep possessions going and defensively, I really like the Eagles’ confidence right now.

Monday Night Football Game

New England Patriots (-20) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

Okay, this 20 point thing is getting a little ridiculous, but unlike the Eagles, the Ravens can’t put up points against the Patriots. Also unlike the Eagles, the Ravens don’t have a secondary that is strong enough to eliminate Randy Moss, or cover well enough to make Tom hold on to the ball that extra second. This spread is huge, and I’m not a fan of huge spreads, but I have to take the Patriots. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a Monday Night shut out of the Ravens. I think the score will be 31-7 or something ridiculous like that. Baltimore is bad, and their amazing run defense won’t matter against New England.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 12

Week 12 starts early, and I’m going for 3 big winners is a row with my Free Picks. All the Thanks Giving Day games are free for your wagering pleasure, good Luck to you all! Check my current records, and reviews, I’m rocking it lately!Thanks Giving Day Games – Home field advantage? I sure hope not, or I’m going to look silly this Thursday! 3 Free games on a day where most of you go to family gatherings and plunder free eats – you have to feel good about that!

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I know Brett doesn’t play well in Domes, and the Lions should step up their game after a couple losses leave them reeling. I also know that the Lions “need” this game a whole hell of a lot more than the Packers. However, because I’m sick of reading too much into games, I’m going to go ahead and take the team I think is way better than the other team. The Packers have moved up a notch since they found their consistent rushing attack. And while Ryan Grant sprained an ankle in the Packers last game, it looks like he’s going to play. Overall, the Packers have a better offense, a stronger running game, and a much more potent defensive unit. I’ll take the Packers as a field goal favorite on Turkey Day.

New York Jets (+15) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

My first gut feeling was to take the Cowboys in this one, but the spread moved over two touchdowns, and I think the Jets have been playing good enough ball to give the Cowboys a scare in the holiday game. In the end, the Jets defense will be too porous for Dallas, but this game just has the feel of an odd game. The Jets have to have more confidence after their overtime win over the Steelers, and I believe they are a much better team than their 2-8 record indicates. Clemens opens up their offense and gives more room to their running game. Thomas Jones should have a decent day against Dallas, something that the Cowboys rarely surrender.

Indianapolis Colts (-11) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Colts are missing more than a few key players, and no, I don’t think Magic Marvin will be back to help his quarterback for this one. However, I do know that even on a bad day with a few backups in, the Colts are two touchdowns better than the Falcons. Atlanta’s win streak is over, and I’m sure Peyton Manning is waiting to shut all these idiots up that are saying, “All you have to do is pressure Manning, and he’ll have bad games.” He’s played poorly of late, but I just have a feeling, he’ll turn things around against the hapless Falcons in the late game this Thanks Giving.

The rest of the Free Picks to follow shortly. I hope you all have a great holiday with friends and family this thanksgiving and a special shout out to the troops who can’t make it home in time for this thanksgiving, I know what I will be thankful for once again this year.
Week 12 Free NFL Picks

I’d love 12 wins in Week 12, for my wallet, and for the cool 12 in 12 reference. Anyway, this is what I have, and that’s already 2 wins from Thanks Giving’s games – so 10 more to go. 7 more picks for Sunday’s action, making that 10 free picks this week. Enjoy, and lets have another big week!

Sunday’s Games

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: SBG Global)

I like the way Denver is moving, and I’m not sold on the Bears attempts to revitalize their season. Defensively, they just aren’t good enough. Offensively, they still aren’t running the ball with much effectiveness, and that combination of things probably won’t get them too many wins as the season wraps up. The Broncos are now right in the chase for a playoff spot, and this is a team that is improving. I don’t like the fact that they gave up 300+ yards to Vince Young, yikes, but I’m going to have to take them over the Bears here.

Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

Please, this game might as well be a freebee. The Titans are much tougher than the Bengals. They’ll run all over them, and Vince Young will probably have a decent day through the air. More importantly, unless the Bengals morph into a different team, I don’t see their offense putting up many points against the Titans, either. Cincinnati is consistently mediocre at home, and this game will be no different. Take the Titans to win here, most likely in a very comfortable manor.

Minnesota Vikings (+8) @ New York Giants:
(Line: Thursday, 11:50pm EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t like the Giants, and I think the Vikings powerful rushing attack will finally give other teams the recipe to make the Giants defensive front full of defensive end speed rushers suffer. Call it hopeful thinking, but the Giants haven’t played well enough to be 8 point favorites over anybody. I know, I know, their record is good – give it up, the dream is dead, and when they sneak into the playoffs, they’ll lose early. Take the Vikings here.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Bills have begun their fade into obscurity, and no, it’s not JP Losman’s fault. Marshawn Lynch looks like he’s going to miss his 2nd game this season, and that’s not helping the Bills’ cause. David Garrard is a winner, and the Bills have proven, that if opposing offenses don’t make big mistakes, they can rarely put the ball in the end zone. Well, unfortunately for them, and fortunately for me, David Garrard doesn’t make painful mistakes, and the duo of MJD and Fred Taylor might just run roughshod on the Bills front 7.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game stinks. LJ is out, Priest retired agains, and Marcus Allen has long since retired… Needless to say, this game is tough to pick. I have to take the Chiefs at home if only because of their famed home field advantage and the fact that Oakland shouldn’t be abel to win anywhere. There’s not much firepower on either of these teams right now, bu thte Chiefs have a very underrated defense, so I have to roll the dice on them.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (-22):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I had to say it out loud in front of the mirror 3 times, but I will not bet against the Patriots. I’ve never wanted to go the other way more than I do right now, 22 points is absurd – I can never remember a spread being this high in my entire NFL capping career. But then again, this game throws up some interesting questions for me. I either think the Eagles will get absolutely destroyed, making the spread look realistic, or play the Patriots down to the last snap, losing or winning a final play-type thing. Will McNabb play? Will he sit? Will the Patriots continue their offensive relentlessness? Or will they tone it down on the holiday weekend? I’m putting my money on lots of Eagle turnovers, no rushing attack, and a Tom Brady highlight film. If that’s the case, why not a 4 touchdown victory? Still, there is no value in taking the Patriots here. But I have to.

Monday Night Football Game

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-16):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Steelers have to be sick to their stomachs that they lost to the freaking Jets last week. They are a much better home team than they are on the road, and I’ll even go as far as to say they could play the Patriots tough on a good day. They’ll be playing on Monday Night, with a chance to show the Nation that last week’s stumble was a fluke, and that they really are a championship caliber team. The Dolphins, as unfortunate for them as it is, will be the whipping boy in this one, and I wouldn’t be even a little bit stunned if the Steelers pitched a shutout in this one, in the 35-0 model. 16 points is a Patriot spread, but I think the Steelers, at home, deserve that against the pathetic Dolphins.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 11

Do work, Son! Week 11 and it’s time for the number’s equivalent in wins.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are the better team here. They are the home team. And the only reason they aren’t favored by more is that they have absolutely no hype. Well, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew may not be LT, but the duo makes a damn good rushing attack. Also, David Garrard returns for the Jags, and the kid just doesn’t make mistakes. Also, the Chargers have a tough defense, but they aren’t the best against hard nosed physical offensive attacks. That’s what the Jags have. One more thing? The Chargers won last week against Indy, but they barely did. They got 6 interceptions given to them, and Sproles returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown, and they still needed Adam Vinitieri to miss a gimmie field goal to win the game. Doesn’t sound much like a killer instinct to me. I’ll take the Jags.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Colts are missing a lot when Dwight Freeney isn’t in. He allows the team to get pressure without blitzing. He makes other pass rushers better, because he requires a double team, and special attention. Without him in the game, the Chiefs won’t have to game plan around an automatic speed rush from his side. The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Packers are legit. They DE-Stroyed the Vikings last week, and shut down Adrian Peterson even before his injury. Defensively, the Packers have enough talent to keep them in any game. My only worry here is that the Panthers defense also steps up away from Carolina, seemingly feeding off the away crowd. Green Bay is a great place to play if you like that stuff. The main thing steering me away from Carolina is their quarterback play. They are either too young or too old at the position, and that leaves them hurting considering they need to get the ball to Steve Smith to win football games.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Washington Redskins are starting to show their real colors now. Dallas is a dominant force that will most likely find themselves dueling it out with the AFC’s best in the Super Bowl. This game is in Dallas, and I can’t think of one reason why the Cowboys would be slipping into this game with any sort of lull. They are just a win away from keeping pace with the Patriots team that they insist they are better than. Dallas is bigger, better, and wants to win more than the home team Redskins – that’s a recipe for a blowout.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They nearly lost last week to the Browns, but pulled it out late. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals haven’t turned it around, don’t be confused. They still stink on defense, despite allowing just one touchdown last week, they still stink. Those were the Ravens, for god’s sake, they’re brutal. This week the Cardinals strong offensive attack comes to town, and they’ll have to put up points to win. Luckily, and the reason I’m taking the Bengals to cover, Chris Henry is back in action, and his speed and length gives the entire Bengal offense more room to run. He needs to be accounted for, and if you pay too much attention to any one of the three dynamic pass catchers in Cincinnati, the other two will hurt you. Look for the Bengals to get their rushing attack going as well, for the Cardinals defense isn’t half as good on the road as they are at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Eagles are back, but don’t tell anyone. More importantly, don’t tell them. As long as they think nobody respects them, they’ll come out and smack opponents in the mouth. Donovan McNabb looks healthier and healthier as the season goes forward, and Brian Westbrook is magic. More importantly, key defenders such as Mr. Dawkins, are getting healthy, and that makes the Eagles a scary team. The kicker here, though, is John Beck starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. If starting a rookie at quarterback doesn’t spell “building for next season” I don’t know what does.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

The Titans aren’t as good as everyone believed after a very good start. Vince Young is struggling, and more than a few key players have been hurting for the Titans. The Broncos had a big week against the Chiefs last time around, and as I said last week, they seem to be building a stronger and more consistent team as the season moves forward. I like them this week, and expect a little run at the playoffs from the Broncos.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 10

We finally get into the double digits, and if you know my game, this is where I start making up for any early season blunders. The next 6 weeks are the most important for NFL teams and for my overall capping numbers alike. To get a quick start, I seem to be walking the underdog to the park this Sunday, this is how my free picks are looking in Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans:
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: Belmont)

What can I say? I like the Jaguars’ chances to even their season series with the Titans in Tennessee. Vince hasn’t played well all season long, and I know he won’t be able to take advantage of the Jags’ secondary like New Orleans did last week. LenDale White is hurting, and Chris Brown’s ankle is sub-par right now. I think David Garrard will start and bring back some confidence with this offensive unit, just enough to win or play within a field goal of the Titans.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: SBG Global)

From the sound of it, the Broncos are ready to play up to their potential. Denver has been down for most of the year, despite one game against the Steelers, and they very well could have lost that game. Anyhow, Denver has the talent to compete with the best, and I think they’ll put the Chiefs away with relative ease at Sunday’s game in Kansas City. However, even if I’m wrong about the Broncos, I think 4 points is too many, and like many Bronco games, this should at least come down to a field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

Honestly, I don’t think the Rams will need half this many points, but I’ll take all 13 and a half of them from 5Dimes. I think the Rams could pull the biggest upset of the week by finally notching their first win against a Saints’ team that comes in with way too much hype for what they’ve accomplished thus far. What have they done? After 4 straight losses, they have a good 1st half against one of the more schizophrenic teams in the NFL (Seattle) and hold on to beat them by 11. Then they sneak by Atlanta (22-16) and probably would have lost if Leftwich hadn’t been hurt (he was torching the Saints’ secondary, believe it or not) and then they beat a terrible San Francisco team in Alex Smith’s first game since his injury, and the game was very close in Jacksonville last week (despite the 41-24 score), and Quinn Gray was calling plays for the Jaguars. Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to lose their survivor pools by taking the Saints in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 7:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Now that everyone thinks the Eagles are completely lost without a chance of every returning or becoming part of any sort of playoff picture, I think they’ll play a lot better. Regardless of what Andy Reid thinks, his problems have effected the team, and questions surrounding Donovan McNabb have also been swirling. All those things are pretty meaningless now that everyone and their mother thinks the Eagles are done. Well, defensively, they are still good enough to slow the Redskins rushing attack, and Washington has been hurting at corner since Carlos Rogers went down for the season. McNabb and his average receiving corps will do fine under those circumstances, and the most talented running back in the NFC East will show his true colors again on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I personally hate gambling on either of these teams, but with the way the Ravens looked offensively and on the corners last Monday Night, I can’t imagine them beating anyone right now. The Bengals should get Chris Henry back, if this whole parking attendant thing doesn’t get him booted from the league, and he’ll be a much needed 3rd playmaker for that offense. Also, Kenny Watson should be back, and he should do alright catching the ball out of the Bengals’ backfield. Also, Chad Johnson’s hit may have been just what he needed to screw his head on straight, and start using his insane ability

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Another game the public loves, and while I hate it, I can’t see the Raiders beating the Bears, not in Oakland, or L.A., or any other place this side of Al Davis’s back yard. Oakland won’t be able to stop the Bears’ pathetic rushing attack, and thus the entire field will be opened up for Brian Griese and the hapless Bears. It sure is a popular pick, but Chicago’s not going to come into Oakland with the “We are the best in the NFC” attitude that they went in to Arizona with last season, and I don’t think they’ll be caught off guard. Tommie Harris is finally close to 100%, and I think he’ll destroy anything and everything the Raiders try to do offensively. I think this will be a blowout, but I’m not throwing too many units down on this, if only because the books totals (75% Bears) send a little fright down my direction – but you shouldn’t ever let that stop you – the book loses too, don’t forget that. Fading the public will only get you around 50% on the season.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10):
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I don’t think too much of this game, and once again, I wouldn’t bet on it if I didn’t take every single NFL game every week. That’s the rule, and thus I’ll take the home team Seahawks. What I do like about this game is the OVER (39.5) which I will definitely be taking. With Seattle using the air attack more often, and Frank Gore set to run against the team he always dominates, I think this game should reach the 50 point total mark. I know the 49ers haven’t done much scoring, but Seattle has a special way of allowing points. I’m taking the Hawks -10, because Alex Smith and the rest of the 49ers make too many mistakes. Sacks, fumbles, and interceptions should just barely get this game over 10.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 9

A huge 6-1 week left me rolling in the dough, finally, in Week 8. This week, I’m trying to re-invest and demonstrate a more even slope toward the top of the damn chart. I was 7-1 with my elite picks as well, tough to beat a 13-2 run in the NFL, I’ll tell you that much. Here’s my Free picks for Week 9’s NFL games, as an added bonus, I’m giving out 8 picks this week.

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders (-3):
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This is a very tough game for me. First and foremost, I don’t think the Raiders should ever be favored, but this might be the exception to the rule. Matt Schaub is out, Ahman Green is probably out, and Andre Johnson is probably out. Also, Josh McCown makes the Raiders better via the air, which should open up the rushing attack a little more, so without further a due, I’ll take the Raiders at home minus a field goal.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ N.Y. Jets:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Finally, another defense that will make Jason Campbell look good. After the last few weeks, being a Campbell fan has been tough sledding, but the Jets will show up to give up tons of yards, tackle poorly, and guard next to no one. I like the Redskins here to turn it around. And personally, I’d like to thank the Patriots for making the Redskins look and feel so bad that not only is the line a little lower than I think it should be, but the Redskins should come into this game as fired up as they’ve been all season long. With Clemmens in, the Jets have more of a chance, but with Coles out (head injury), the receiving corps will struggle a bit. Cotchery isn’t good enough yet to be the true #1 guy.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I guess I like the Bucs’ ability to do all the little things right. I think they’re outmatched talent-wise, but being at home, with a big opportunity to get a big win, against a Cardinal team that is prone to mistakes, make me like the Bucs here. Jeff Garcia is a winner when getting even an ounce of hope. That’s not only admirable, but worth a bet. Plus, I like this Earnest Graham cat a lot.

New England Patriots (-5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I’m going with the Patriots here, but not because this bet has good value, the value is in fact terrible. This has to be the first time in the history of lines and wagering on sporting events that an undefeated returning champion is an underdog at home, let alone by 5, 6, and even 7 points at some books. The problem is, I actually think this is a fair assessment of the talent of these two teams. The Patriots are probably the best team I’ve seen for a very long time. They are very good in every aspect of the game, and you know what they say, “Hard work beats talent unless talent works hard.” The Patriots work the hardest and have the most talent. How can you bet against them?

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I think the Falcons are too far gone to win this game. San Francisco still has a shot at the West, despite their recent struggles. Frank Gore will find running room against a very bad rushing defense that just lost their best run-stuffing defensive lineman. There are many Falcons that think, and have expressed their opinion that, the front office is giving up on this season, and preparing for next year. True or not, that’s not the kind of thing I like the team I’m betting on to be thinking. Needless to say, I’ll be taking the Niners.

San Diego Chargers (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Vikings can play well against teams with average to poor rush defenses. The Chargers have a beastly defensive front 7 with plenty of insanely fast speedsters with a knack for making the big play. That’s not good for a team that has already been dealing with 8 man fronts. The Vikings don’t have enough through the air to keep up with the Chargers, and defensively, they don’t have enough in the secondary to hang with a pass catching unit that got a whole lot more dangerous with the Chris Chambers addition.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I may be a bit stuck on my pre-season assessment of team talent here, but I think the Hawks are going to kill the Browns. I think the Hawks’ defense is one of the better units in football, and the Browns have been playing out of their minds offensively. That means there is a lull on the way. The Hawks bring enough pressure to keep Derek Anderson uncomfortable, and when that happens to the big youngster, he seems to flash into mistake mode. The Hawks have a solid offense, good enough to put up 30 on the Browns. That should easily win this game.

Baltimore Ravens (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Monday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

With everything going against the Ravens in this one, I have a feeling they could play a lot better than people are giving them credit for. They’ve been one of the better ATS teams in football over the last 5 years, and I think they can hang within 10 of the Steelers on Monday Night’s grand stage, even in Pittsburgh.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 8

I need a big winner this week – but I have to ride the way I’ve been capping the last 3 seasons, because that’s how I know best, and that’s how I win. Check out my games this week, and if you want my elite half, check out my elite picks.

Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (+3):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Browns aren’t as good as their 3-3 record insists, and the Rams, while they’ve played more than their fair share of terrible football, I think their make-shift offensive line will play pretty well against a browns defense that knows how to give up lots of points. Cleveland won’t be able to run against the Rams, a very underrated run defense, and thus they’ll have to pass the ball to put up points. I know Derek Anderson has had a hell of a year thus far, but I think he slips this week. It’s always interesting to see how an underdog team finally plays when they’re favored. I think the browns will slip up.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Lions are too offensive for the Bears. Detroit has struggled offensively the last few games, and I think that’s an aberration, and that they’ll step it up against the Bears. The Lions are oddly confident this season, and I kind of like that. I think that’s what the Bears had over the NFC North over the last year, but now, every team in that division knows they can beat the Bears, and that means trouble for a Chicago team that can’t run the football. A straight up win by the Lions wouldn’t surprise me.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee Titans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)

5Dimes has this offer on the table, and I just can’t pass it up. I probably would think about taking the Titans at 7 or less, but 7.5 seems like a lot in a game with two teams that are pretty similar. Both offenses are very one-dimensional, and while the Titans have the better defense by far, the Raiders have enough talent in the secondary to play 8 guys in the box, making running room tough to find for LenDale White. Vince Young is a spread killer, so don’t say I didn’t warn you, but I like the Raiders to cover the 9 point spread in this one.

Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (-10):
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I’m not sure how this line will change, or what will happen to my bet at the beginning of the week, but on Monday this game put the Chargers in as a 10 point favorite, something I like against a defense that probably won’t be able to slow down LaDainian Tomlinson. LT looks to be back at his best, and the Texans secondary isn’t strong enough to make Rivers fit the ball into tight spots. The addition of Chris Chambers will open up the field for Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and LT – that being said, be careful with this game, the fires around the San Diego area could effect where this game is played, and where the minds of Chargers’ players are at.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)

I don’t like the Saints, I just like the 49ers less. The Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they can’t walk into any game thinking they can skate and win. So, they’ll come in and fight the 49ers long and hard, and win by 3-7 points as the game will come down to the last drive. But if that’s the case, I like Drew Brees to find himself again, Reggie Bush to make a big play, or Marques Colston to snap out of his sophomore funk. I like those 3 options a lot more than I like Alex Smith walking out of the training room or Trent Dilfer grandfathering the offense to lead the 49ers to a win. Give me the Saints, but I don’t love it as much as you’d think.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

First of all, I don’t think the line has good value in this game, but I have to take the Pats. I think the Redskins have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far, but that doesn’t mean they will have trouble scoring. New England has made it look easy this season, and while this game might have a few more twists and turns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is very possible, especially with such a young quarterback running the show for the Redskins. New England’s defense is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means the Redskins’ rushing attack will have to go through walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell. Yes, the Patriots are this good.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

I don’t usually like the Colts as big favorites, but against the WAY overrated Panthers, a team starting either Vinny Testeverde or David Carr at quarterback, yeah, I’ll take my chances with my #2 team in football. The Colts are very good, whether you or me or anyone else wants to except that, I don’t care. They are one of the best teams in football, and Bob Sanders is the most dynamic safety I’ve seen since Ronnie Lott hit the field back in the day. Yes, he makes plays faster than everyone else on the field. The Panthers are too slow (besides Steve Smith – who will get special treatment) to compete in this one.