Tag Archives: NFL Free Picks

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5): When this line came out I was very excited, somehow, somewhere, somebody decided the Chargers were a complete enough football team to compete with even a struggling Giants squad. Nope.

I know the Giants have struggled, I mean, look, my record has taken at least three straight hits on their behalf – but I’m not ready to give up on what I think about the Giants. They still have an elite defense and an offense that has been moving the ball, just struggling to get into the end-zone. I know Eli’s ouchy footsy injury might be hampering his ability to plant his foot, but I have a feeling the Giants show up this weekend.

If that means Brandon Jacobs and Ahamad Bradshaw running the ball 35 times, or if Ellie gets back to being Eli, or if it’s big plays on defense that set up Giant scores, what ever it is, I think the Giants have a very good chance to beat a Chargers team that just can’t make the big stop defensively. San Diego can throw the ball, but they don’t have the same rushing game they’ve had over the years, and the defensive problems that they ran into last season are still very evident.

Then again, there’s room to question the Giants here. They played mediocre football in Week 1 against Washington, of all teams. They won a game they should have lost against Dallas in Week 2. They then proceeded to win 3 more games against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland – woohoo! 3 straight embarrassing losses to good teams brings a little question to the equation, but I still think New York is the much better team here.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Carolina Panthers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick: The value here is with Carolina and it’s because they have an elite rushing attack and any time you give an elite rushing attack 15 points on Sunday, that bet has value.

Because of how the Saints have played, how they’ve come back and covered in games they probably should have lost outright, and that they refuse to lose as one of the two undefeateds left in football, they are hard to bet against. Not only have they been winning, but they are 6-1 ATS – but the Saints haven’t been two touchdown favorites since they played Detroit earlier this season – if that puts how ridiculous this spread is into any perspective for you. Panthers > Lions – believe me.

The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, so what if their first two wins were over Washington and Tampa Bay and a loss to Buffalo is squeezed in there. The bottom line is, last week the Panthers figured it out and fed the ball to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the best running back duo in football.

Why it took this long to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands is beyond me, but proving to me that they will run the ball to win is good enough for me to take them as a 15 point underdog, even against this year’s “best team in football”.  62% still like the Saints – come on. The Carolina value is good enough for me.

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Lots of stuff has me thinking this is a great bet. There’s the Flu that’s going around Cleveland like flies swarm cow poo, there’s the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback has a 44% completion rate on the season, or that Green Bay has played much better defensively over the past three games – many, many things say Packers. But 81% of the public likes this bet, and that’s a red flag if I’ve ever seen one. One thing Cleveland does better than Green Bay is control the ball, their time of possession is solid despite the inability to complete passes and being prone to turnovers. Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!

San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans Free Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: One down game from the 49ers doesn’t have me going away from them here. Now, I like both teams. I thin the Houston Texans are going to put up some wins this season, no doubt, their 3-3 record thus far isn’t a fluke, but the 49ers are too tough for them. San Francisco is coming off a bye, and an off week of feeling that Falcon blasting from Week 5 might just be the thing they needed to step up their play. This will be Michael Crabtree’s first NFL appearance, after he finally signed his rookie deal two weeks ago. But I don’t think Crab will be the guy that makes the difference here, that title goes to the return of Frank Gore. That’s right folks, the spoon that stirs San Francisco’s offense will be back and starting in this one, and that Houston front 7 (or 8 during this game) will have their hands full. I expect the 49ers to win in Houston, so taking them to cover here (getting a field goal free) is just bonus!

San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I know KC is tough at home, and I know this game was very close twice last year (though San Diego won both, KC covered each) but I’m with the public in this one. I think most of the spreads this week are pretty tough, but I like the Chargers by a touchdown here. I actually think San Diego played very well last week against the Broncos. They allowed two kick return touchdowns to Eddie Royal (well one punt and one KO) and besides that they were stingy on defense. They held a pretty tough rushing attack to 101 yards on 33 carries, and the secondary made some nice plays. And that’s all against a very efficient offense that boasts one of the best offensive lines in football. Kansas City doesn’t have that. Offensively, Phillip Rivers and company moved the ball fairly well, and LT actually ran with solid effectiveness against a defense that has shut down the run all season long. There’s some questions in San Diego, no doubt about it, and Kansas City has played pretty decent over the last couple weeks, going to OT with Dallas and getting their first win of the season against Washington, but I have to go with the Chargers here. Four and a half isn’t crazy. The Chargers have played some close games with some good teams, and at 2-3 on the season with Denver at 6-0, they can’t afford to take the Chiefs lightly. I’ll take the road favorites here.

Indianapolis Colts vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: The Colts are too good to go against here. The Rams may have given Jacksonville a scare last week, and I know this is the NFL, so anything crazy can happen (see Philadelphia’s breakdown in Oakland last week) but does anyone really see the Rams having a chance here? I’ve never been a huge Peyton Manning fan, but I can respect the man’s work, and he does it perfectly. He has all the tools, the accuracy, and the know-how – not to mention the work he puts in to be great. And he’s going up against the Rams, a defense that doesn’t successfully stop anyone. Offensively, the Rams just aren’t good enough to oust the Colts. Not only are the Colts a team that makes you be efficient and methodically move the ball to stand a chance, but they have a front 4 that constantly puts opposing offenses in tough situations. And this week they will likely get Bob Sanders back. Yeah, that’s right, the Colts have done this all without their best secondary player, the human missile, Bob Sanders. Marlin Jackson (the best corner on the team) might also be back after missing the first handful of games. I know it’s a double digit spread, but if there’s ever a time to take a road favorite in this situation, it’s now. The Colts have a very quick strike offense with one of the best QBs of all time. They limit big plays defensively and get after opposing QBs. Marc Bulger is a turnover machine under pressure and he just happens to be quarterbacking the worst team in football. That’s all I’ve got, give me the Colts.

Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Denver Broncos  (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are and have been overrated. Sure, their backs are against the wall here, but that wall is high, and sitting on top of it is a bunch of Broncos ready to straight donkey punch them right off the wall like Humpty freaking Dumpty. The Broncos are even better than I thought they would be, and I expected a lot more from Josh McDaniels’ guys than most. They run the ball well, throw the ball efficiently, make few mistakes, and play hard-nosed tough tackling defense. I’m sure the Chargers will put up some points, maybe even keep it close, but the better team getting 3 points, I like that value.

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3): I still don’t get this line. I’ve always figured that Vegas gives the home team 3-4 points, so what they are saying here is that the Bears are, at the very least, even with the Falcons. Really? The Bears aren’t a good road team, lets make that clear. They’ve lost 6 of their last 9 games on the road, and those 3 wins were against the Lions (last season, a team that didn’t win a game last time I checked), the Rams (last season, they were actually even worse than the Lions), and the Seahawks this season in a very close game in which the Hawks were brutalized by injuries and had Seneca Wallace trying to win the game for them. I’m sorry, but something about that recent history doesn’t put me in the Bears-backers section. Atlanta beat down a good 49ers team last week, but that’s not why I’m taking them here. I’m taking them because not only are they better than Chicago, possess better players than the Bears, but they are a good home team playing a bad road team with a spread that claims the two are equal. Now the Falcons struggle with prolific passers, but a lot of yards in his second season and a reasonable start to his first year in Chicago don’t quite make Jay a top flight passer in my book. Like I said, I still don’t get this line. Give me the Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Oakland Raiders Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders: There’s no reason to take the Raiders here. They have no offense, their defense isn’t good enough to win games (circa Bears or Ravens of yester-year) and they have a clown owner and a head coach that likes to punch out assistant coaches when they even hint at how big of a circus he’s heading up in Oakland. These guys in the uniforms make the fans in Oak-town look normal. Have you seen that commercial where the guys are getting all dressed up for a KISS concert and when they pop out of their van in full KISS gear, it just happens that they read their tickets wrong and they were smack dab in the middle of Oakland tailgating? Well, the Oakland Raiders seem to play like a bunch of guys that did the same damn thing as the KISS guys. Sure, a new way is born, but that way is a joke. If JaMarcus Russell throws twenty feet short or thirty feet long on any more throws, I’m going to fall over laughing, and I thought he had a decent future. Lets face it, the Raiders are like the Clippers, they pay players lots of money in exchange for their souls. I feel bad for Richard Seymour, but I’m taking the Eagles favored by a couple touchdowns on the road. It’s a shame that Al Davis sold his soul in exchange for the Raiders franchise for eternity. I’m sure he’ll have roster moves and coaching changes written out for the next 20 years in his will. Philadelphia scores fast and often, they have a defense that takes advantage of mistakes, the Raiders make lots of mistakes, I think the defense might cover this spread all by themselves…