Washington Redskins vs Oakland Raiders Week 14 NFL Picks

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Washington Redskins vs Oakland Raiders Week 14 NFL Picks: The Redskins are better than the Raiders. There it is. The Raiders have more wins that Washington, but that has rarely meant anything to me when judging a team’s worth. Maybe I’m wrong for that, maybe I’m not, but the bottom line is, this is my freaking picks section, I write it every week, I have a pretty damn good record, especially when you consider the fact that I pick every single game every single week – and guess what, I happen to think I’m a pretty good judge of which teams are better than others. The Redskins, at 3-9, are better than the 4-8 Oakland Raiders, and I feel pretty confident about that statement.

Now just because one team is better than the other doesn’t mean I’m betting on them for sure, sometimes a lesser team is just a tough match-up for a better team, and sometimes the spread burden is just too much to bear, but this week, I like the better team, I’m taking the Redskins.

Washington hasn’t won on the road yet, but there’s a first time for everything, and it’s not like the Raiders make Oakland a tough place to play. Oakland is just 2-4 at home this season. 56% of the public likes Washington, and I think for good reason. While the Raiders have played well under Bruce Gradkowski (beating Cincinnati and Pittsburgh while winning 2 of their last 3), I can’t imagine they win 3 of their last 4. Washington has had tough luck this year, or no luck, however you want to put it, they’ve lost 6 games by less than a touchdown, and during their current 3 game losing streak against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Saints, they’ve lost by a total of 7 points. They’ve been ahead in both going into the 4th quarter. At some point the luck has to turn in their favor – like this week for example.

Washington Redskins (pk) @ Oakland Raiders:

St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick

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St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick: This line moved from 11 (which I thought was a little high considering how well the Rams defense has played lately, and how the Titans don’t put up a ton of points per game – 20) to 13.5 at most books. The move was early, and as of Thursday Night you could get the game at 14 at one book. I’d be surprised if that option continues to exist, as +14 seems like too good of a deal despite the 60% public bet on the home team Titans.

Listen, I know the Rams have a single win to their name, and I know I’ve been quoted calling them the worst team in football, but I’ve seen one hell of a turnaround with this team, and it all started after the Colts pistol whipped them 42-6 in St. Louis on October 25th. Since then, the biggest loss they’ve had was a 10 point defeat to the Seahawks in a game that was pretty close. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 spreads, and they even won a game (though it was against Detroit). I’m not ready to call them good, but their defense is playing good football, they have a good coach that is changing the losing mentality, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they found a way to pull a big upset over the next few weeks.

Do I think the Titans will lose? I’m not saying that, they’ve been playing even better football than the Rams over the last 5 weeks, and they have a very good rushing attack and a quarterback that rarely loses. They also have a pretty solid defense. But 13.5 points? No, I think that’s way too many, thank you. I’ll take the Rams.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans:

New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Pick

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New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Pick: The Jets started out hot, playing awesome defensively and giving just enough help behind their rookie quarterback to score enough to win games, but that was how it started. After going 3-0 to start the season, the Jets have lost 6 of their last 9 games, but they’ve been playing tough teams (sans the Raiders, Panthers, and Bills – all of which they beat with relative ease). The Jets have lost to just one team with a losing record, the Bills, on October 18th, in overtime, 16-13. Aside from that one slip up, they’ve proven too skilled defensively against bad offenses.

With big time playmakers in the secondary, they’ve forced a lot of bad throws and even worse completion percentages from opposing quarterback. It seems like the Bucs, and rookie Josh Freeman, are a likely candidate to have a lot of trouble against that aggressive Jets defense. The Jets have not allowed more than one offensive touchdown to a team with a losing record just once this year, they allowed two TDs in a win over the Titans. The Jets defense might just be too good for the youthful Bucs offense.

Offensively, the Jets will be without their rookie quarterback, but I’m not sure how much that hurts them. Kellen Clemens looked bad in reserve duty last week, but with a week of starter reps under his belt, I’m willing to bet the Bucs don’t give him too much trouble. Plus, like the Panthers, a 2nd string QB might be a good thing, if it means more runs and less pass attempts, they win this one easily.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots NFL Free Pick

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Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots NFL Free Pick: The reason I like the Panthers more now than I did when their starting quarterback was actually playing is because now they are smarter about their run to pass ratio. With Delhomme, they were playing like they had a starting quarterback in the game, as if his starter status actually made him useful. That was obviously the wrong understanding, and will likely cost John Fox his job some time soon. But now, they’ve become the team they should have been all season long. They run the ball more than they pass. Last week, even without their starting pro-bowl running back healthy enough to play, they ran the ball 33 times to just 20 pass attempts. Perfect. That kind of number makes me love them as a 14 point dog against anyone, even the Patriots.

I also think the Panthers are a solid defensive match-up for what the Patriots do offensively, that’s just another reason why they’re a great big dog bet, because most people don’t even consider that when making their play, and that’s why the Patriots are still getting 56% of the bet – or at least that’s what I think.

I always say that you should never give a good team double digits while betting, and while I’m not saying Carolina isĀ  a good team exactly, I do think they are a good team when they run the ball 15 times more than they throw it. It keeps their defense off the field, and keeps their big play ability going. The Panthers intercept a lot of passes, and they have some solid pass rushers. I think the Panthers keep running, and keep playing well in the secondary, that’s definitely good enough for a 14 point underdog.

Carolina Panthers (+14) @ New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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I know the Vikings have been one of the NFL’s best teams so far this season, shoot, they’ve only lost twice, but I still think they get a little more credit than they deserve. First of all, I think I’d take the Bengals as a 7-point dog against any team in the NFL, playing anywhere in the league. 2nd, the Vikings have had a pretty tough time running the ball efficiently against good run defenses, see San Francisco, Green Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and AArizona. In fact, the only two teams to beat the Vikings have brought pretty tough rush defenses to the table (Arizona last week, and Pittsburgh 7 weeks ago). The Bengals rarely get out-rushed, and rarely allow many easy yards on the ground. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings deal with that.

The Bengals have one of the league’s best defenses. They bring good pressure, have a solid secondary that makes big plays, and allows just 15.6 points per game, one of the best marks in the NFL. In a game that will likely be a low scoring affair, a touchdown underdog is a nice thing to get your hands on. The Bengals have had some tough injuries, but they’ve dealt with them well, and come into Sunday’s game with the Vikings winning 5 of their last 6.

Thats right, the Bengals are no joke either. At 9-3, they are one of the best teams in the NFL. I think they get even less credit than Denver, which is pretty amazing considering they have Mr. Ochocinco and his media circus running the gong show. I like the big dog here.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick: The Buffalo Bills aren’t a good football team, I’m not trying to twist it that way at all, and playing at Kansas City is never an easy task (despite what Denver made it look like last week), but the Bills are a much better team than the Chiefs. Kansas City, defensively, can’t seem to stop anyone, and while the Bills have bad defensive numbers, they’ve done alright this season when they are allowed to gang up on one aspect of an opposing offense – I’m not saying they can give it all to the run or pass in KC, but they can put just about everyone of their guys within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage, because that’s where the Chiefs have been doing their dirty work – and offensively, the Chiefs are pretty grimy.

The Bills are 4-8 this season, and while it’s almost impossible to find a good 4-8 team, the Bills are about as close as you can get. They’ve been in almost every single game they’ve played going into the 4th quarter. From that point forward, sure, they’ve struggled, but at 4-8 they average 5 points less than they give up on the season. Putting that into perspective, the Chiefs give up 11 more points per game than they score. I’m not going into any details, but if you look at box scores from the Bills games this season, you’ll often see a 3 point game going into the 4th – they have played decent – and they’ve played even better lately.

The Bills have played a very tough schedule, and the only teams with losing records that they’ve lost to are the Titans (and they’ve been pretty good lately), the Texans (who can play with anyone), and the Browns (who suck, but just beat the tumbling Steelers). They generally beat bad teams, they’ve done so 3 times this year, and I think they do it again in KC.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free ATS Pick

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Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free ATS Pick This game’s a tough call, and I don’t know if I’m going to be able to fully justify my Dolphins pick, but I just get the feeling that this is the type of game the Jaguars love to lose. It’s the type of team they are going to come out and abandon the run against, putting all the pressure on David Garrard when they have one of the most dynamic players in the NFL in the backfield. Jack Del Rio and his staff can sure find ways to discourage a guy. They lost me at hello.

The Dolphins are a run first, second, and third team, but I know they’ll find plenty of room on play action to get a couple big plays on the shaky Jaguars secondary. Chad Henne has been spreading the ball around well since he took the job, but more importantly, the Dolphins seem completely fine with giving the ball to Ricky Williams 25 times a game since Ronnie Brown got hurt. It’s not as interesting as the Wildcat, but it’s very close to being just as effective. Ricky’s still got it folks, believe that.

The Dolphins have gotten the best of heavy run teams all season long, beating the Jets twice, the Panthers, Bucs, are also coming off a last second win over the Patriots last week – not as if that has anything to do with dominating run-first teams, but I thought it sounded nice, so I threw it in there. I can do that.

Jacksonville has struggled against tough run defenses, getting smacked around by the 49ers, and Titans most recently. They might have won 4 of their last 5, but they didn’t win one of those games by more than 5 points, and despite a 7-5 record, average 4 points less than they give up. Give me the fins!

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks

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Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks: 55% of the betting public likes the Colts, and I’ll admit, Peyton and company make it tough to bet against the horsies with their 12-0 record going right along with their 8-3-1 ATS mark for the season. But the Colts are 2-3-1 ATS at home, and they’ve lost each of their last two when favored by more than 6 points. They’ve won their last 5 games by a total of 28 points, that’s an average of just over 5 points per game. 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. Last week the Colts beat the Titans by 10 points, but Tennessee went for it on 4th down twice when inside the Colts’ red zone. They’ve been winning the close ones.

Denver became a bettor’s dream after the first few games of the season, surprising everyone and taking a long time for the books to realize (or credit them) for being real. The Broncos started 6-0 including wins over Cincinnati (miracle last second touchdown), Dallas, New England, and San Diego. But then they hit the wall and lost 4 in a row by a combined beating of 37-117. And just like that, they were the Broncos once again, no credit, no respect. Just how I like them. A 20-point piecing of the Giants on Thanksgiving and a 44-13 beatdown over the Chiefs in Kansas City, and the Broncos are still more than a touchdown dog at 8-4.

Now that’s my kind of bet. The Broncos have been at their best when given no chance to win, and there are plenty of people that expect the Colts to walk into Sunday’s game and come out with a 13-0 record just for showing up. I don’t think so. I think the Broncos match-up very well with Indianapolis, and a chance of an upset is great. That’s why I like Denver as a runaway dog.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Papas Picks: NFL Week 13 Free Predictions, Underdogs!!!

Okay, so I didn’t do so well last week taking the dogs. I’m sorry for that. That doesn’t mean I’m running away from this article, though, I’ve always followed up losses with wins, and why not now? Here goes nothing…

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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+4): The Dolphins run the ball really well, always successful, they slow the game down, they keep just about everything close, and they’re always in the game. The Patriots obviously are having troubles defensively, and offensively Tom is off a bit. I like the Dolphins to keep playing tough football at home.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Lions have some offensive firepower and if any team in the NFL could care less than the Bengals do about beating the crap out of their opponent, I’d like to see them. Cinci just wants to win, and when they are up by double digits they just run the clock out like it’s their job. They did it last week against Cleveland and I think they do it against against Detroit.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1): The Texans can’t finish the job and Maurice Jones Drew should find plenty of running room in Houston. All the losses in close games will come back to haunt the Texans sooner or later, and they’ll just fall flat on their faces. They’ve never been a good road team, and Jacksonville is always better at home.

Oakland Raiders (+15.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s 15.5 points. The Steelers have played close games all year, against both good and bad teams. That’s enough for me.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Ravens are the better team. They have an attitude that has them step up for big games in the spotlight, and I don’t know if there’s much better than Monday Night against a Green Bay team that has turned up the volume on their season. Ray Lewis, meet Aaron Rodgers…

Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks Pick & Preview

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The Beavers and the Ducks, Oregon State visiting Oregon, the Cival War, one of the best rivalries in the Pac-10, the two best teams in the conference, a trip to the Rose Bowl against Ohio State at stake, a chance to be the one that took USC’s place atop a conference that has been dominated by Southern California for a long time. Yeah, there’s a lot on the line for Thursday Night’s showdown in the Beaver State – if your state is named after you, shouldn’t you be the popular pick?

Alright, so maybe Oregon was called the Beaver State long before OSU became the Beavers, but I like to kid. What I see from Oregon State is a team that has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points, and that 10-point loss came very early in the season to a very good Cincinnati team that has, consequently, gone undefeated thus far. The Beavers other two losses, a 6-point defeat at the hands of the Trojans and a 5-point loss to Arizona. What makes them so tough to shut down? Well, they pass the ball with great efficiency (more passing yardage than their opponent in 6 of their last 8 games) and are down right dominant on the ground (have been out-rushed only twice this year). They are balanced, and they do both very well.

But Oregon has one of the best offenses in the nation, has one of, if not the best spread/read/running quarterback in the land, and a very talented young running back, plus a bruiser in Mr. Blount if they every decide to use them. Neither team stops their opponent much with defensive prowess, but both can make big plays, and they have.

The road team has won each of the last 2, but the home team won 8 in a row prior to 2007 and 2008. The final score is usually more of a blowout than a close contest, but with these offenses, it might be the last one with the ball – that makes the points the bet for me!

Oregon State Beavers (+10) @ Oregon Ducks