Tag Archives: Free Picks

NFL Free Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

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It’s hard for me to take a Dolphins team that just couldn’t get it done against the Tennessee’s and Houston’s of the world when the playoffs were on the line. Now, the Dolphins need nothing short of a belated Christmas miracle to find themselves in the playoffs, and the only thing that stands in-between them and finishing their part of the bargain is the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers and a defense designed to shut down all of their strengths.

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Did I mention that the Steelers are finally getting some big wins, and after losing five straight games to “all but eliminate” them from any chance at the playoffs, have won two straight ball games against future playoff teams and are currently back in the picture if the cards fall right?

It seems like a lot of stuff going Pittsburgh’s way in this one, but there’s one thing that has me retracing my steps a little bit, and making sure I don’t wager too much on this game. The Steelers have been talking all week, and so have the media types, and it seems like, between them, the Steelers are already getting a notch in the win column for this game. I know a lot about sports, and one of the key parts of playing a good game is putting a notch in the win column after you win the game.

I still like the Steelers, as they match up well with the Dolphins, but this one should be tight.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers NFL Week 17 Predictions

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I know the Saints aren’t starting Drew Brees, and who knows who else they are leaving in the locker room, on the bench, at home, etc., but I still expect them to compete for a win. New Orleans is loaded with position players, and they have enough difference makers that will be playing a lot of the game that I like them as a 8.5 point underdog against the Panthers.

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You have to remember, while the Panthers’ passing attack has been solid over the last few weeks, the heart and soul of that attack is out with a broken arm, and the Panthers are still missing plenty of players that will make a big win tough against New Orleans, even if the Saints are playing a meaningless game after all.

After going 13-0, the Saints have lost 2 straight, and have a chance to go into the playoffs riding their only losing streak of the year – and while that’s not the worst thing that could ever happen, you know New Orleans would like to notch out a win to get back on the right track.

When it comes right down to it, I think Mark Brunell knows enough and is good enough to keep the Saints in the game, and when you’re talking about an 8.5 point spread, that’s exactly what you’re looking for. The Saints have been solid all season long, and a Panthers team that also has nothing to play for doesn’t scare me all that much.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick

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Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick: The Vikings have played more close games than you’d think, and they haven’t been playing thier best football lately, losing two of three including an embarrassing loss in Carolina to the Panthers. There’s been some problems reported with Brett Favre and head coach Brad Childress, with questions as to who’s in charge. Now that we have that all cleared up, and everyone knows that Brett’s in charge, I think the Vikings will turn it around in Week 16.

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More important that what the Vikings will be doing is the team they are going to be playing. And I know it’s been a disappointing year for Carolina, and the Panthers haven’t played well, but it’s tough to match up with how poorly the Bears have fared after all the pre-season hype.

Who looks like the dummy now folks? All that talk about how stupid Josh McDaniels was for trading away Jay Cutler for a bunch of picks and Kyle Orton seems like rubbish now, doesn’t it? Kyle and the Broncos are on the verge of a playoff birth while Jay and the Bears are a couple wins away from, just 7 freaking wins. That’s right, Chicago is guaranteed a losing season, and lately, they’ve been playing like the bottom tier in the NFL.

Just last week, the Bears made the Ravens offense look like the greatest show on turf, and they’ve lost 6 of 7 to boot. Chicago is just a bad football team, and there’s not much more to say about it. Minnesota better get it right here, if not now than never.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins Sunday Night Football

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Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins Sunday Night Football: Wow. It’s been a tough year for the Redskins. For their fans, for the team, and especially for the coaches. Just this week, one of the teams best players, one of the highest paid guys in the league, flat out said the defensive coordinator ran a system that doesn’t work. Perfect. And I was taking the Cowboys way before any of that business came out. This game has moved 3 or 4 points in just about every book, as most sites post the game at -7 for the road Cowboys.

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It’s crazy, and not my style, but I still like the Cowboys. I think Dallas finally got over that big “late season swoon” crap when they beat the Saints on Saturday Night Football last week – ending the Saints’ run at undefeated, and allowing the Cowboys to start their own streak for the playoffs. The only thing in their way from 10 wins are the Washington Redskins, and what better an opportunity could there be?

Washington had been playing very well until reality hit. I predicted they’d get back to playing some bad football, and that’s exactly what they did. And I think they continue on that downward facing dog yoga pose. The team seems lost, finally gone, and with this coaching staff headed out the minute after the season finishes, I think the team has finally checked out as well. One team’s going up, the other right down, easy enough for me!

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview

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New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview: Face it my fantasy minions, playing Colts offensive stars is not something you have confidence doing in Week 16 – at least you shouldn’t. Not only are the Jets one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the league, but the Colts have everything they wanted when the season started. Sure, they could get to 16-0, and an undefeated season would be amazing – but Indy has made it clear that 16-0 means nothing to them, and sending Peyton out there in a game that means nothing against a defense that is playing for a shot at the playoffs seems like a risk they aren’t willing to take. You add that to the fact that the Jets do a very good job shutting down the pass, and I don’t see any other play in this one.

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The Colts are a very good team, and if this game was played three or four weeks ago, sure, I’d be taking the Colts as a 6 point favorite – no doubt. But this is Week 16, and it’s rest time for Colts starters rather they are saying it or not. Even if they do play, I doubt it will be for more than a half. And even if they play for a half, it is hard for me to believe that they will be all in.

The Jets will come out trying to win while Indy will come out trying to finish the game as healthy as they came in – those motives should be realized, and should make the Jets an easy pick.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick

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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick: First of all, anytime you get a team favored by double digits that averages one more point per game than they give up, have a record of 6-8, and have an offense that is, in no way whatsoever explosive, you are certainly taking a big chance by going with that team. So here I am, taking a big chance in Week 16 long after I’ve had plenty of time to learn my lesson.

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What intrigues me about the 49ers is their pass first offense and how it might just help them get way up against a team like the Lions. In almost every other situation, I hate that the Niners have become a pass happy team working in the spread, giving the ball to Frank Gore not enough times, and generally passing themselves into trouble – but against Detroit? I’m not quite as worried, that’s for sure. But 11 points? Tough one to stomach.

But we’re not just talking about the 49ers here. No, no. We’re not just talking about a team that is just 6-8, a team that lost to Seattle for goodness sake. But while we are talking about them, let me mention that in 4 of their 6 wins, they’ve won by double digits.

The reason I’m taking the 49ers by 11 is because they are playing the freaking Lions. Detroit is a battered team, and even when they were healthy, the best they could do was become a 2-12 team with 9 double digit losses this season. I’m not 100% sure, but I’m willing to bet that’s more double digit losses than any other team in the league. Good enough for me – I’ll take the Niners!

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)

Papas Football Picks: Week 16 NFL Predictions & Previews

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Well, I actually won 4 games last week, but since my article didn’t get published until Sunday Morning, the Dallas Cowboys upset win didn’t get counted. Even though the publisher knew I wrote the article prior to the game, it wasn’t fair for us to put the picks up after the game and count them toward my record. But hey, it is what it is, hopefully everyone listened to Lucky and went with the Cowboys for a big win over the Saints. Who dat gonna beat dem Saints? Only the Cowboys thus far. That’s who.

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The 49ers couldn’t’ cover the 9 point spread last week, but Miami covered by that all important half point, losing by a field goal in overtime.The Packers ended up losing, just like Lucky claimed, but the +2 was enough for me to cover in find fashion. I must say, seeing the Packers up 6 with the Steelers driving had me feeling pretty dang comfortable. And the Bucos just flat out smacked the Seahawks in the face, pulling the upset in Seattle. Nice work Jim Mora – clown.

This week I have only Sunday games, so things don’t get confused at all. And without further word fodder, here they go…

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Cleveland: Listen, this game will be close. Both teams suck. 3.5 points is a nice friendly spread for a game like this. The Raiders quarterback injuries shouldn’t matter much, it’s not like they have had good play since Rich Gannon finished in Oak Town.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have one single win by 14 points or more. It was the Bears, and Chicago doesn’t count. Kansas City has a nice rushing attack these days, and that should be just enough for the double touchdown dog to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) @ New England Patriots: I know the Pats should feast on the Jaguars secondary, but the Pats should have been feasting on defenses for weeks now – and guess what, they haven’t, that’s what. Tom Brady is killing my fantasy team, and hopefully for this pick, he keeps on killing.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I just don’t think Indy comes to play in this one, and i don’t think their starters play more than a quarter, maybe two. The Jets want it more, need it more, and will go all out until they get it. That’s more than I can say for the Colts. Seems like free money!

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+8): I know the Redskins were terrible last week, but hey, they’ve played pretty well prior to that. I have to think last week was just a tough go, and the Redskins will be ready to rock with Dallas in town. 8 points is too much for this rivalry.

St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks

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St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks: First and foremost, 15.5 points is quite the freaking mountain to climb in the NFL. Remember when your grandpa used to tell you he had to walk five miles to school, uphill both ways? That’s kind of like a 15 point spread. Now, with an offense as explosive as Arizona’s, it might just be uphill one way, but when that offense hasn’t been all that efficient down the stretch, we’re getting dangerously close to that impossible uphill both way scenario.

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The Rams can run the ball, that’s another hill the Cardinals will have to climb. Steven Jackson hasn’t been feeling his best, but the guy is amazing. Despite every defense doing everything they can to make St. Louis want to throw the ball, he’s still getting close to 100 yards every game and going work against the NFL’s best. After Arizona gave up and gaggle of yards last week to the freaking Detroit Lions, I have a feeling the Rams will be doing their best to exploit the Cardinals again this week.

And now for the kicker, I don’t see any reason for the Cardinals to play their key guys very long, or give that much effort to win these meaningless games. I mean, sure, they could play a little harder down the stretch, hope to be a high enough seed to be the NFC home team if the best teams get upset throughout the playoffs, but seeing how last year’s slow finish to the regular season had absolutely no effect on their post-season success, I don’t know why they’d risk injury to guys like Kurt Warner in games that will mean nothing.

All things considered, this is Lucky Lester saying, “uphill both ways sucks”.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:

Arses Five Favorites: Week 16 NFL Preview

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Ugh, I lost 4 games for the second week in a row, bringing me to 14-11 over five weeks of free picks. From what I hear, that’s not too bad, but still, it’s bean feast or fart for me in five weeks of picks, two weeks with 4 wins or more, two weeks with a single win, and that one 3-2 week. Anyway, I have to keep rolling, just two more weeks to go, and I like some favorites the public doesn’t seem too fond of and see a couple big public favorites that look good to me as well. Here’s my top 5 favorites for Week 16…

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Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) @ home VS Buffalo: The Bills aren’t explosive enough offensively to stick with Atlanta. Sure, Michael Turner will likely be out again, but Matt Ryan is back, and an Atlanta team taking more chances with receivers like Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White might be a good thing. The Falcons are 5-2 at home – only 40% of the public likes them – count me in that 40%.

Green Bay (-14) @ home VS Seattle: This game is a bit of a joke. The Packers have been playing very aggressively all year offensively, and most of the year defensively. The Hawks are as soft as room temp butter. 35-13.

Dolphins (-3) @ home VS Texans: The Dolphins are solid at home, and they are just more consistent than Houston because of their strong offensive line and efficient rushing attack. Houston is sexier, sure, but Miami can just get it done.

Patriots (-7.5) @ home VS Jacksonville: Please. The Jaguars give choke artists a bad name. Tom Brady isn’t going to keep throwing incomplete passes all the way into the playoffs, I promise, the guy is going to turn it around, why not against a Jaguars secondary that has trouble stopping themselves. And don’t even get me started on Jacksonville’s offense. Does Del-Rio know their best player needs to touch the ball more? Answer, last week, yes, this week? Nope!

Eagles (-7) @ home VS Denver: The Broncos defense has struggled against elite passing attacks, losing and failing to cover against Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh so far this season. And to make me hate their chances even more, they lost to the freaking Raiders last week, with their old starter, new #3 QB, JaMarcus Russell, leading the Raiders to victory. C’mon Man!!!

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Free Football Picks

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I had the Steelers to win last week, and while they definitely played better football, and pulled out a win like magicians pull rabbits, they hardly deserved to walk away with victory after giving up 36 points to the Packers. But they did, they got me a win, got themselves a win for the first time in 6 weeks, and set themselves up for another loss to the Ravens.

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You don’t follow? That’s fair, and maybe my reasoning is crazy, but it is what it is and since this is my site, I will happily share my crazy, “this is why the Steelers will lose to Baltimore despite playing at home after winning an emotional game last week” theory. Whew, I need to think of a better name for that theory. Too long.

The Steelers lost 5 games in a row, eliminating themselves from playoff contention, finding blame for each other along the way, going through some tough stuff as a team, and losing a little bit of that Steeler flash and aggressiveness that had become second nature to their team. And while they seemingly had nothing to play for last week, losing 5 straight games played enough of a role to keep them motivated. But since winning last week, and getting that win less in a row monkey off their back, plus barely eeking that game out, and now playing against a Baltimore team that smells the playoffs, I don’t see that same motivation sticking around.

There it is, I hope it makes enough sense to follow.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers