Tag Archives: Free NCAA Picks

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming Cowboys vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Posted on by

[adrotate group=”10″]

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 8 games, and they are playing good offensive football coming in. Defensively, they certainly leave something to be desired, I mean not many teams give up 50+ points and win, but that’s what Fresno did to finish the season. Still, the only team they lost to over the last 8 games of the season was Nevada, one heck of a football team that almost ended Boise State’s undefeated run. Fresno has shown they can play with anyone.

Now that might be tough considering their draw in the opening Bowl game of the College Bowl season, they get Wyoming… Tough draw? Hardly, the Cowboys just barely go into the bowl family, and maybe, just maybe the Bulldogs find a tough time getting up for the Cowboys. But I’m not betting on that, I’m betting on a Fresno team that will play anybody anywhere, and a bowl game closer to Wyoming doesn’t worry me much – plus, Fresno is just flat out better.

Wyoming Cowboys gives up 10 more points a game than they score, and it’s not like they’re on fire coming into the bowl season – they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, and they haven’t played well against winning football teams. Fresno allows a lot of points, no doubt about that, giving up nearly 28 per game, but they throw it and run it and have the athletes to beat up on Wyoming, and I think they do.

Fresno State Bulldogs (-11.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction

Posted on by

no banners

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction: This game has me really nervous after the week’s numbers, and the way the lines have shifted. I got this game on Tuesday back at GT -2.5, and that’s what I have to stick with, but almost every book has this game at even, and the ones that don’t have the Jackets favored by only a point, and there’s even one book that has Clemson favored in the ACC Title game. 64% of the bets are coming in on the Jackets, but the line has moved in the Tigers favor, hmmm…. That’s always tough on a guy like me, I try to think of it all.

Now I can see what there is to like about Clemson. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, the underdog in this match-up is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are coming off a game where their run game got shut down pretty well by a mediocre Georgia defense. Who has a very good defense? The Tigers, that’s who, up front they are very talented and I can imagine the books see a possible problem for the Jackets there. All they have is a run game, if that’s stopped, they have nothing.

But, Clemson gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week as well, and I can’t see the Yellow Jackets struggling two weeks in a row on the ground. While the match-up is a good one, a great run game against a great defensive line, I think the Yellow Jackets are just flat out the better team. That gives them the nod in my book.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers:

Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick: The Wildcats are a tough team to figure. They can play great football against the best of the best, and they can go out and lose to the Huskies or the Cal Bears. But Arizona has been more impressive than USC in just about every single key football category you could think of. Yards gained, yards allowed, points per game, time of possession, penalties, win differential against winning teams – you name it, the Cats have been the better team all year long.

But USC has 60% of the public bets, and every “expert” list I’ve seen has the Trojans as a great bet going into the weekend. I don’t buy it. The Trojans have a lot of stud athletes, sure, but Arizona can run the ball against the Trojans, and Nick Foles has shown he can throw it. This Arizona team outplayed the Ducks a couple weeks ago when they lost in overtime – I think they are the better team, they are getting more than a touchdown against the Trojans, and there’s not much else to say about it.

The Trojans have been out-rushed in 3 of their last 4 games, and took losses in two of those games. The Wildcats have lost just one game when out-rushing their opponent. And when the Wildcats do lose, they haven’t lost by much. Their biggest loss this season? Try a 10-point loss on the road at Iowa.

Arizona Wildcats (+7.5) @ USC Trojans

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two straight to the Florida Gators, but that’s where the gambling numbers stop favoring Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS against the Gators in the last 8 games. Alabama has won 3 of their last 5 over Florida, and in all 3 of those games they were underdogs. This is the smallest spread either team have dealt with all year long. Neither has been an underdog yet this year. Alabama was actually up late in the Florida Game last year, but the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to walk away with the SEC Title.

But this is a different year and these are different teams. The Gators don’t have Percy Harvin anymore, and the Crimson Tide don’t have their senior quarterback anymore. Both teams have been great all year, and this should be a very tough-nosed game. But in the end I just think the Gators are too explosive.

I think Mark Ingram is a very good runner, but the Gators have been so dominant defensively this year, I just don’t see the Tide making much of their offensive snaps. Florida has yet to give up more than 20 points, and allow less than 10 on average. Alabama is just a point behind them, giving up only 11 per game. Both of these teams are good, I just think the Gators are better, and that’s what it comes right down to. Alabama is the slight public favorite, 52% like them.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide

California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick: Coming into the season, the Cal Bears boasted one of the best running backs in the nation, if not the best. But Jahvid Best had a scary injury, and hasn’t played in quite some times. The interesting part of that scenario is that the Bears rushing attack hasn’t really suffered. In fact, I think the offensive line is blocking better, and overall, the Bears are a more efficient offense now that they aren’t relying on their stud running back.

That spells trouble for the Huskies. I’ve been pretty much dead on with the Huskies this year, I know them well. I know who they should play well against, I know who they struggle against. I’ve said all along that if you can fully commit to running the ball against UW then you can win easily. I think the Golden Bears can and will do that.

Not only are they the better team, and pose a tough match-up for the Huskies defense, but the Bears are playing their best football of the season. After struggling mightily against good teams, the Bears have beaten Arizona and Stanford back to back. And they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the University of Washington. I know Husky stadium is loud but I don’t know how long it will be that way.

If you look at stats, you’ll see that the Bears do just about everything more effectively than the Huskies. Stats, the way I feel, the moon alignment – I have everything going for me here. I think the Bears win 38-21 in Seattle.

California Golden Bears (-6) @ Washington Huskies

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick: I don’t see what about the Cornhuskers has them at a two touchdown underdog in this one. They’ve basically had one bad game all year long, and aside from that one piss poor outing, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech in which they turned the ball over more than Jay Cutler, they’ve lost two games by a total of three points, a 2 point loss to Iowa State and a 1 point loss to Virginia Tech. That’s not really two touchdown underdog worthy is it?

Against like opponents, the Cornhuskers have held their own. They beat Kansas by two touchdowns while the Longhorns beat the Jayhawks by three touchdowns. The Huskers beat Oklahoma 10-3, the Longhorns won their tilt with the Sooners 16-13. Both won against the spread and straight up against Missouri.

They Cornhuskers have out-rushed all but two of their opponents on the season, the same can be said for the Longhorns. The Cornhuskers have a superior defense, allowing just 11 points on average this season. The Lonhorns have the superior offense, blasting weaker teams late in the year, and finishing the year averaging 43 points per contest compared to the Cornhuskers 25.6.

But Nebraska plays their toughest football against the best teams. They beat Oklahoma, fought Virginia Tech until the very end, and beat up on Kansas. The last two games in this match-up the Longhorns have won by 2 and 3 points. Nebraska won ATS in both games. Texas has more injury concerns headed into Saturday’s Championship game, and that last little push makes the Cornhuskers a great bet in my cocky opinion.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)

Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick: Everybody has completely bought in to the Illini’s recent change in play, and I must admit, this is more of the team I expected when the season started. Juice Williams is playing pretty good football, and the team has some offensive playmakers, definitely. The problem is, when they’re playing good or bad football, they still can’t stop anybody. Especially a team like Fresno State that is much better than people give them credit for.

I thought this line was kind pretty off when I first saw the line, and it’s only moved in my favor. I took the Bulldogs +1 and they’ve moved to a field goal underdog, and still, 60+% of the public likes the Illini. I’m starting to think (or have always thought, would be a better way to put it) that “names” of a program means a lot more to bettors than the actual ability of said team. Really, the Bulldogs are the better team, there’s no doubt in my mind.

But Illinois is a “Big Conference School” (I know, the Big 10, so powerful!) and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 against the spread (including a big win over big powerhouse, Michigan). They are hot, so to say. Sure, they only have 3 wins on the year and have been beaten by double digits in almost every single one of their 8 losses, but they’re “hot”.

Listen, Fresno State’s only losses come against Nevada, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Two of those were decided by one score. One went to overtime. I’ll take the much better team and a field goal, thank you very much.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick: These two teams have definitely been the class of the Big East this season. Rutgers made a nice little run, and West Virginia capped off some solid play of late with a win over Pittsburgh last week, but the Bearcats and Panthers have been on top of the conference from start to finish. Cincinnati remains undefeated headed into Pittsburgh to play the Panthers. It will be tough, and they’ll need some help, but the Bearcats could be playing for a National Championship if the dominoes fall correctly. Better yet, if Humpty Dumpty goes splat.

This line has really moved 3.5 points away from Pittsburgh and what started as the Panthers being a small favorite has become the Bearcats being a small road favorite. I took the game right in between where it started and where it is now, but when it comes right down to it, the chances of those few points mattering in the game are pretty slim. If it got to a field goal, my feelings might have changed a little, but -1, -2, +1 – rarely does that change make a difference.

What I like about the Bearcats is their awesome offensive firepower. I know the Panthers can score some points, and they are certainly efficient – but I think they’ll struggle with the speed of Cincinnati’s defense and I doubt the Panthers can score enough to keep up with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick

Posted on by

no banners

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: This game has really moved around on me this week. I believe it opened up at even, and the line moved fast in betting favor of the Scarlet Knights, giving the home team 2.5 points when I picked my lines for the week on Monday Night. Since then, despite the high traffic of public bets on West Virginia, the line has moved in West Virginia’s favor, and now the Mountaineers are the underdog, +1.5 almost everywhere you look. 58% of the public bet is on WVU.

Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10, losing to Pittsburgh by a touchdown and getting routed by Syracuse, of all teams.But sometimes that’s what happens to young quarterbacks. Tom Savage has been great since taking over for the Scarlet Knights, and he’s been even more impressive at home. The only home games Rutgers lost all season were against Cincinnati and Pitt.

West Virginia has wan 6 of their last 8, getting beat by a field goal @ Cincinnati, and losing by 11 @ South Florida. The Mountaineers are 1-3 on the road this season. Their only road win was a beat down performed on the same Syracuse team Rutgers lost to a couple weeks ago. They are 4-6 ATS this season.

I like the home field advantage, I like the positive feel to the season thus far for the Knights. I like Tom Savage and the way he’s led his team. West Virginia is good, they’ll come to battle, but I like the home team.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.5)

Big 10 vs ACC Challenge: Wednesday NCAA Basketball Picks

Posted on by

I was 3-1-1 yesterday, and I’ll take that with a smile, especially because the team that handed me my lone loss just happened to be the only team I really care about in Sports. That’s right, I trotted through the first 5 games of the ACC-Big 10 Challenge and I won 3, pushed won, and lost the only game I was hoping to lose. (Maryland won and covered against the Hoosiers, Northwestern easily defeated that underdog spread by winning outright over the Wolf Pack, Virginia Tech covered easily – the Tar Heels slapped the Spartans around early and held them off late, while Wake Forrest let a first half lead get away from them as the Boilermakers fought back for a push). That was my Tuesday Night in the college hoops’ ranks.

no banners

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Clemson Tigers (-4): Everybody likes the Tigers here, but since I can’t blame them, I’m going to go ahead and join them. The Illini have something, some bigs that can rebound and fight, but I still think Clemson has the fire to take Illinois down, plus this is the challenge, the ACC always wins the challenge.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+2) @ Miami Hurricanes: It looks like, if you can out-rebound the Gophers, then you’ll have a pretty good chance of handing them an L. But I don’t think the ‘Canes can out-board Minnesota, so I have to take the small road dogs here.

Boston College Eagles @ Michigan Wolverines (-5.5): The Wolverines have struggled early, but I like them here. They are too athletic and will be looking to win for the first time in 3 games – I think they are certainly due, and I don’t see BC doing enough defensively to stop Michigan.

Duke Blue Devils (-3.5) @ Wisconsin Badgers: You always take Duke early. You always take Duke when they are the better team. You always take Duke in the challenge. This Blue Devil team may not be the in your face get right by you team they’ve often been, but they have some bigs that have a high effort gas pedal all the way down to the floor.

Florida State Seminoles (+7) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes have only lost to one team, the Tar Heels. FSU has a loss to Florida, a Gator team that has surprised some folks. Both have a good win or two, and both can hit you with quick guards and give a little power down low – but I think FSU’s rebounding is worth a bet here as a 7 point dog. I’ll go that way.