Monthly Archives: December 2008

10 for Tuesday

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Okay, I just wanted to point some things out… 

1. It’s not always good for your X-Rays to be negative: That’s right – for example, Daunte Culpepper and JaMarcus Russell were two guys that should have been praying for their X-Rays to come back positive and bussed to the IR. Both of those guys are on teams that make life even more dangerous for them than normal NFL players. Some others that weren’t so lucky and might play again this year, Kellen Winslow, Jerome Harrison, and Steven Jackson has likely been hoping for weeks that one of his multiple ailments would find him a safe warm spot on the IR – no luck SteJack – but you do get the Seagulls later this week. Good luck!

2. The Seahawks receivers have started to get healthier, but only because the baton has been passed to the running backs in Denver. Tatum Bell – yes, that Tatum Bell – will be the starting and basically only running back this coming week when the Broncos do work against the Carolina Panthers in Carolina. It should be interesting, but then again, who in their right mind thought Peyton Hillis would be the guy rushing for 100 yards in Denver? Remember, he started at FB and LB earlier this season. Now that’s a man. 

3. The Cardinals clinched the NFC East – by default. Yep. 

4. I lost a fantasy playoff game this week by 6 points. Tony Romo started for me and threw 3 interceptions. My opponent had Pittsburgh’s defense. Thanks for all the memories Tony. 

5. Brett Favre had 137 passing yards against the 49ers, and that sucked – however, it was the Jets playcalling that really got me down. As Thomas Jones rushed for a 17 yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter, I began to think the Man-Idiot had figured it out. “We win if Thomas gets the rock.” I sweat it makes perfect sense. But at the end of the day, a team with two capable running backs (TJ and Leon Washington) decided to run the ball 12 times. 10 carries to TJ, 1 to Leon, and 1 to Brett – good idea. How’d that work out Man-Idiot? How do these guys keep jobs?

6. Shaun Hill had 285 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets – but how was that possible? I know – the 49ers ran the ball 33 times – and the Jets had to commit to stopping that. Take a damn not Mangina… 

7. Tim Hightower had 12 carries for 32 yards and a score. The answer to the Cards running back questions? I’m thinking no, not this season anyway. He was touted as the next great rookie after just breaking 100 yards against the Rams last time the Cards spanked St. Louis – but how have his numbers looked since then? Told you. 

8. Losing isn’t always a bad thing. Take the Hawks for example, that 21-13 lead they had going into the 4th quarter was a fat lie. Sure, the teams want to win, but fans – you should be rooting for them to compete until the end and then blow it. Do you want Michael Crabtree or do you want the Raiders to sign him? For Crab, and for the Hawks – the answer is “lose the rest of your games please!” – I feel for any guy that goes to Jail in Oakland. 

9. I said last week that you shouldn’t pay much attention to Joseph Addai going up against a bad run defense that doesn’t tackle well. I hope you listened – 10 rushes for 26 yards. If you started him anyway, please tell me how the outcome of your first fantasy playoff game went. 

10. The Ravens remind me a lot of the Steelers in Big Ben’s first season. They might not be 13-3, hell, they might not even make the playoffs – but this is a good defense and a young quarterback and a running game that might not be flashy, but gets the job done. I just think they might have a tough time if they do get into the playoffs. We’ll see.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 14

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165 points from my starters this week – not too shabby – check out all my work from top to bottom! 

QB: Matt Cassel vs. Seattle: Matt was tied for 11th overall amongst quarterbacks – should have gone with the Peyton Manning match-up – dang. Still 19 points isn’t bad. 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: 102 yards and 1 catch for 15 yards – he was good for just 12 points against the Lions – come on. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Jacksonville: 69 yards rushing against the Jags? Ouch. Still, Forte’s catching ability gave him 5 grabs for 37 yards and while he didn’t score a TD, he still managed 14 fantasy points. 

FLEX: LT vs. Oakland: He scored and rushed for 91 yards, but it took him 25 carries – against the Raiders of all teams. I’m interested to see where LT gets drafted in fantasy circles next season. 16 points for LT2. 

WR: Roddy White vs. New Orleans: 10 grabs for 164 yards, but no TDs for Roddy. Still, White did work. He was 4th amongst WRs, and I needed it – him and Marshall made this week respectable for me. 26.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Kansas City: Brandon had 11 grabs for just 91 yards, but he took two of those catches to the house. He was 2nd amongst WRs and 4th overall in fantasy land. 32 for the big receiver. 

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: 5 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown – Tony is as good as it gets, even though he’s old. 2nd TE overall. 18 fantasy points. 

K: Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit: 2 Forty-yarders and 2 extra points – I wanted one more field goal attempt – but 10 points is decent here. He was the 5th rated kicker this week. 

D: Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland: 17 points from the Titans – the Browns didn’t take many chances, but Tennessee shut them down all day long. 

PAPA’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: 16 fantasy points – not the biggest day ever, but he’s worth playing once again. B

Daunte Culpepper: He did toss for 220 yards, but got just one touchdown. Still, 14 points isn’t bad. B

JaMarcus Russell: Ugh. F

Pierre Thomas: 4th overall amongst running backs – and he’s still the best running back in New Orleans. A+ 

Cedric Benson: 57 yards and 1 catch against the Colts – not good enough. 6 points. D-

Domenick Hixon: Hix dropped a sure thing 60+ yard reception, and it looked like he would have scored – as is, he didn’t do much. I missed, but by just that much. 3 grabs for 30 yards. Maybe I was wrong about Plax’s absence? D-

Devin Hester: 5 catches for 80 yards – could you imagine this guy playing a slot roll for the Patriots… Dirty. Anyway, he’ll be a solid receiver in Chicago for years to come. B+

Zach Miller: 8 grabs for 64 yards made him the 4th TE overall – he’s a must start. Even on the Raiders. A

Arizona Cardinals: 3rd defense this week. How do you like me now? A+

Papa’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Marc Bulger: 220 a TD and a pick – better than I thought, but still, there were 17 guys better than Marc – Shaun HIll, Tyler Thigpen, Kerry Collins, Culpepper, Orton, Seneca Wallace, and Jeff Garcia were 7 of them. 

DeAngelo Williams: Can I miss more? TB killed me in many ways this week, and it all started with giving up 300+ rushing yards to the Panthers.  

MeWelde Moore/Willie Parker: These guys didn’t do anything in a Pittsburgh win. Dallas’s D came to play. 

Kevin Walter: Yikes! Kevin Walter killed me this week. Well, he was on just about everyone’s bench, but still – he was no player to sit. Not when Matt Schaub torched the Packers secondary for a win in GB and 400+ yards. Walter was his #1 target. 

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

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I guess I knew it was coming, but I’d been so consistent that I was feeling like I’d go an entire year without a big loser. 5-10-1 got me right in the junk, and I dropped 5 games on my season total – these are the days that make pushing not feel so bad. I’m not doing anything different next week than I did every single game prior to this, I’m just marking this down as an anomaly. This is how I got got in Week 14. 

 

Oakland Raiders (+11) @ San Diego Chargers: (LOSS) It started off in Oakland where the Raiders came out like it was their job to S#!T the bed. I mean, look at the Chargers stats. LT needed 25 carries to accumulate 91 yards – he scored, but still, that’s a good job by Oakland’s defense. Phillip Rivers was 10-22 for just over 200 yards, but those 3 TDs really helped. Still, there’s not much to like about San Diego’s game, the Raiders just really sucked. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WIN) This was an obvious one. Thank goodness for that. 

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (LOSS) Well the Lions had a win in their sights and let it slip away. Minnesota is out to get me, that much I know for sure. 

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): (LOSS) How far the Packers have fallen. This secondary gets torched for 400+ yards through the air, and Steve Slaton breaks them up for over 100 yards on the ground to boot. Not only do they get torched, but Houston wins the game with a late field goal. A terrible road team from Texas came into a cold Green Bay in a must win situation for the Packers and won. I’m lost here I guess. Ha.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) All the numbers in the world had me going with the Bengals in this one. I guess it just wasn’t meant to be this Sunday. 

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS)This game yo-yo’d back and forth for quite some time, but Drew and the Saints got it done on the ground just enough to oust the Falcons. This is going to be a sad thing to see one, maybe two of these NFC South teams out of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: (WIN) I was pretty on about this one. The Eagles needed this game and played the Giants tough two times in a row. +9 is too much to give a very talented team that needs a win. 

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: (LOSS) Yeah, the Browns are even worst than I thought. 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): (LOSS) It’s nice to see the Bills completely collapse before the Super Bowl – that’s a new one for the old school Buffalo fans. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) Well, the Chiefs didn’t run the ball as much as I thought they would, and Thigpen completed just over half his passes – but the Chiefs still covered by a field goal. 

New York Jets (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers:  (LOSS) “I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset.” Well I lost, but at least I warned you. I would have never expected the Jets and Brett to play absolutely terrible in back to back important games. Nobody’s going to give them a free ride to the playoffs. 

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) Ugh – when I pick dogs like this and they lose, I feel like one big damned idiot. Oh well, on to next week!

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (WIN) Dallas should have won this game – keep that in mind for next week’s action. The Steelers didn’t do anything offensively, and they needed Dallas to give them this game. But I’ll take it. 

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: (PUSH) New England didn’t play like a playoff team, but they did enough, just barely enough, to get a fighting Seahawks team. They didn’t do enough to cover the spread I needed to win, but at least I got my money back, more than I can say for 10 of these games. 

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): (WIN) “I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.” You have to admit, when I break a game down like this, you start to believe in me just a little bit more. 🙂

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: (LOSS) I don’t know how the Bucs gave up a million yards on the ground, but they did. I always say, if the Panthers can run, they’re a Top 5 team in the league. Well here it comes folks, watch out for the Panthers, because after Monday Night Football, they showed me they could pretty much run on anyone.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 15

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These are the games I like for Week 15 – talk about a huge week with a lot on the line for some big time programs – especially for the schools that are at home watching and rooting like all hell. Yes, Texas, I’m talking about you. Great games with a lot on the line this weekend, lets see if I can’t have a big winner in the old NCAA one-five (that’s Chad Johnson for Week 15). Eight big games for you college football fans!

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Connecticut Huskies (-2.5): Now Pittsburgh has beaten some teams that Connecticut has lost too, and Pitt has played pretty well down the stretch – but the one key here is that these two teams are pretty equal, and Connecticut has the better offensive line, plays much better at home, and something else too. Yeah, Pitt falls under my bet against list because they won last week when they should have lost. The played poor enough to lose, definitely, but 12 4th quarter points got them w pretty lucky win. That doesn’t bode well for the Panthers this time around.

East Carolina Pirates (+13) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane: I honestly kind of like East Carolina to win this one outright, so that makes the spread that much nicer I guess. Here’s the deal, Tulsa hasn’t won a game where they’ve scored less than 38 points. East Carolina has given up more than 38 points just once this season. THey won’t do that again. They are a good defense and Tulsa has proven that they don’t do well against good defenses. Undefeated at home? Yeah, I know – I’ve looked at all those stats – but they struggle when they don’t score points at will. They won’t on Saturday.

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech Hokies (pk): The Hokies play really tough at home, and while BC plays good football on the road as well, I think the Hokies split this season series and get the Eagles back here. VaTech’s defense will cause lots of problems for Dominic Davis, just like with Chris Crane last time out, and Tyrod Taylor won’t be asked to do too much for the Hokies. Davis played well last week, but VaTech’s defensive schemes are a different beast than Maryland’s. Hokies win at home.

Washington Huskies @ California Golden Bears (-35): This is a huge spread. It should be. I need to do this now because I might not have too many more chance. See, if Mike Leach gets hired on in Seattle, I’m turning the page on this “always bet against the Huskies” thing, and as sad as that will be, I’ll just have to do it. The Bears ousted WSU 66-3 and while I don’t quite expect that big of a lashing, I wouldn’t be surprised about 45-6.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+10) @ Florida Gators: For a #1 ranked team, the Tide sure get very little respect. They are the only “big school” with an undefeated record. If one thing has been consistent it’s that they know how to win. I hate betting against the Gators, and thus I’m only going to do it for a small amount of coin, but Alabama can really run the ball. I now Florida is super fast, but Bama is powerful. They might not win pretty, but they win. Florida has annihilated everyone all year long, sans one single blemish. That may continue, but I’ll never feel bad about taking a 10 point dog that plowed through the regular season without a single loss. Besides each other, I think the SEC is a little overrated, so the work each school did (all those points put up by Florida and those games Bama had giving up a touchdown or less), I’m not so sure about. But both teams can win, and both can really play the game. Hard to go against a Florida team that, last week, has their closest game of the year since their loss to Mississippi, and they still won by 30. But I will. I’m wild.

USC Trojans (-32.5) @ UCLA Bruins: Maybe the recent brotherhood moment of “timeout for timeout” between Carroll and Neuheisel is a sign that Pete will take it easy on the first year coach of UCLA. I’m guessing not. The Bruins haven’t scored double digit offensive touchdowns total this season. That’s right, they average less than an offensive TD per game. What makes anyone think they’ll put up a single one against the Trojans? Pure craziness I’m sure. USC has plans on a big win, and even taking it easy would probably get them a 42-6 win. That’s enough for me. No TDs for the Bruins, that’s my bet.

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Arizona Wildcats (-10.5): The Sun Devils are just as bad as the rest of the Pac 10 while Arizona is really just a step under USC. That’s right, I think the Wildcats are just as good as the Ducks and Beavers despite losing to both teams late in the year. The Wildcats can put up lots of points if they need to and they can play defense too. ASU has been bad all year, I expect that to continue.

Missouri Tigers (+17) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I think that Chase Daniel and his Missouri Tigers saw how Oklahoma piled it on at the end of the Oklahoma State game and said, “F that Stuff – we won’t let them be in the position to do that to us.” We’ll see how it works out, but with Oklahoma already writing themselves in to the National Championship, I’m willing to bet that Missouri gives them a bigger scare than the books are suggesting with this big spread. I like Oklahoma to pull this one out, but around a touchdown is what I expect to see in this one.

One for Wednesday, Three for Thursday, Five for Friday too

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Hoorays for the Day!!!

1. Sammy Morris as a Week 14 pick-up that will help multiple fantasy owners.

2. Scarlet Johanson.

3. Dominik Hixon’s value doubling in one idiotic second.

4. A perfect example about to be set – high paid receivers don’t make teams great.

5. Dustin Keller’s prompt rise to must-start.

6. Victoria Secret fashion show being televised in prime time.

I could care less, but since I don’t, I’ll share these anyway…

1. Willis McGahee could play this weekend.

2. MTV (except for Rob and Big and Jackass reruns)

3. Joseph Addai goes up against a bad defense that doesn’t tackle well- great.

4. The Lions get the #1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

5. Skinny Jeans, on anybody – I don’t care, they aren’t flattering. Okay, maybe on Scarlet.

Booooos and Hisses!!!

1. Mayor’s that “want to throw the book” and say it publicly. If you want to throw books, don’t be a damn mayor you idiot – own a used book stoor.

2. Rich people owning guns without permits.

3. Food poisoning, wasps, and stale chips.

4. Getting shot in the leg, shooting someone else in the leg, even worse yet – shooting yourself in the leg.

5. Picking up Darren McFadden for the stretch run.

6. Expecting Ronnie Brown to get 20 carries.

7. Steven Jackson’s health versus his pay check.

8. Walking with scissors… RUN!!! RUN!!!

9. Owning Dallas Cowboys during fantasy playoffs.

10. Predicting Philadelphia Eagle outputs.

11. Helping your buddy out – and having that buddy be Plaxico Burress. Antonio, I would have done the same thing buddy – tough deck of cards you had to play there.

theRUNDOWN: Week 14

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else – And Week 14 is upon us! 

QB: Matt Cassel vs. Seattle: I know, there are probably better options, but Seattle’s secondary hasn’t been able to slow down much lately, and I don’t think the Patriots will waste all that much time running. The Hawks have a solid run defense, but I’m pretty sure they’ve been the worst pass defense in the league lately. I’ll ride the Castle man. 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: I guess I’m probably not the only one starting AP this week, but how can you not? It probably won’t happen, but what if you added LenDale’s numbers to Chris Johnson’s numbers from Thanksgiving’s game between the Lions and Titans? That’s what I’m hoping AP gets. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Jacksonville: I started a rookie against Jacksonville last week, and I’ll do the same this week. Both are dynamic, and Forte is even more a center of his offense with even more carries near the goal line. Big game here. 

FLEX: LT vs. Oakland: Here’s why, because he’s LT and he’s playing the Raiders – that’s why. Fantasy owners have been disappointed by LT this year, but if they made the playoffs with him, he should really help them with a big payoff in Week 1 of most fantasy post seasons. 

WR: Roddy White vs. New Orleans: This kid is one of the better receivers you don’t hear a whole bunch about. He’s quietly putting together an amazingly productive and consistent fantasy season – that’s huge for receivers. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Kansas City: Brandon Marshall has disappointed me too many times to do it again this week, hasn’t he? I’m telling you – there aren’t many more talented than this kid, now if he’d just stop dropping passes. 

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: How good is this old man? I should be starting him just about every week. 

K: Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit: Versus Detroit is the key to this one. They give up so many yards, and then commit so many stupid mistakes – Longwell is bound to get a few kicking shots. Indoors, he’ll hit them all. 

D: Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland: Better yet, this is Tennessee versus Ken Dorsey. Awesome. 

PAPA’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Against Denver? You bet. 

Daunte Culpepper: I actually think Daunte throws for more than 250 yards with 2 touchdowns or more. Is that crazy thinking? Am I old? Yes to all those things, but I’ll be right – that’s even scarier. 

JaMarcus Russell: If you are in this big of a bind, you have done well to get into Week 14 with something to win. Still, JaMarcus might light up a San Deigo defense that will be putting as many as they can in the box, and they aren’t great in the secondary anyway. It’s a short notice game, so this could be a nice night for the former #1 pick. Plus, you have to feel for him getting drafted by Oakland and all. 

Pierre Thomas: You bet. Atlanta’s defense is alright, but Pierre has been doing work. I’ll say it again, it’s popular on this site, Pierre is the best running back in New Orleans. 

Cedric Benson: Don’t look now but Benson has run with heart, and I think he keeps the starting gig for a while. That being said, he does play for the Bengals, but hey, I’ll try anyone once against the Colts. 

Domenick Hixon: I don’t care who they are playing, this guy is good for 70 yards, I hoped you trusted me and picked him up last week, because I’m sure he was tough to grab this time out. 

Devin Hester: I liked Hester last week, and I like him even a little bit more this week. Jaguars secondary is defunct and they just lost the best player in it. Does that mean good? That means Yhatzee! 

Zach Miller: He’s basically a sure thing start every week. This week he plays a poor defense on short notice – that’s more of a good for Zach. Some real sleepers I also like here are Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, and Ben Watson. 

Arizona Cardinals: Yeah, I’m trying a mediocre D against the Rams, so what, I’m right about this one this time. AZ should play inspired after diking around last week. 

Papa’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Marc Bulger: The match-up might say “YES!” but somebody needs to slap your match-up hunter right in the face on this one. If Bulger is still in by the end of the game, I will be stunned, and here it is, I will take a D grade for this sit pick even if he scores single digit points. I don’t see a long stay for Marc on the field this week. 

DeAngelo Williams: How great has this guy been? Exactly. But not this week, not in this game. The Panthers will lose at home because they won’t run well. 

MeWelde Moore/Willie Parker: The Steelers are smart, and therefore they won’t waste much time running the ball against the Cowboys D. Dallas has a nice run D, and while Pitt will have some good plays on the ground, it’s because they will be taking advantage of that Dallas secondary – more points through the air than on the ground this week. 

Kevin Walter: Not against those Corners in Green Bay. 

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 14

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Well here we go. By now you know the gig. These are the questions and answers from some good readers earlier in the week. If you are interested in getting your questions (and my answers to them) published, make sure they come out before Thursday – I try to get this out late Wednesday Night at the latest. Here goes something!

Ollie from Pittsburgh writes, “I know the Steelers are playing the Cowboys this week, and the Steelers haven’t given up much offense to anybody, but I have Marion Barber and Tony Romo – would you sit either of those guys to start Tyler Thigpen or LenDale White?”

Tough call Ollie, but I think I’d stick with your big guns. I know Barber went down in the Boys’ last game, but all reports are that he is a healthy go, and while the Steelers have basically mashed running games all season long, Barber is a threat through the air as well, and he’s a beast – I would probably start him just about every week. Check his status on Sunday Morning though, just to make sure the Cowboys aren’t pulling a Willis McGahee situation. As for Tony of Tyler, that’s a tough one, because Tyler plays the Broncos – and even though they are getting Champ back, they are still brutal in the secondary. But, they are the Chiefs, and I think they’ll just run a load against the Broncos. I think Romo has too many threats to have too bad of a game, and he might be the first to put up big numbers against the Steelers vaunted D. I’d stick with your two top guys, but definitely a tougher decision than I thought it would be.

Porky from San Antonio asks, “Who will be the better pro quarterback? Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy, or Sam Bradford? Same question for receiver, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, or Michael Crabtree?”

I think I’ve answered this before, but what the hay. I like Bradford from that group. That kid never gets worried and he’s got the arm and legs to do work. He’s smart, cool, and if he puts on a little bit more bulk he’s one hell of a great quarterback. He makes some great throws. I like all three though. I hope Harrell gets in the right situation to succeed. McCoy’s accuracy takes a little hit in my mind because Vince Young was the most accurate college quarterback in the nation when he was at Texas, too. All three have great quarterback personalities and qualities that should get them jobs at the next level, that’s for sure. As for receiver, I just think Crabtree is a beast. He can do everything well and he’ll never shy from contact. But again, all three are 1st Round talents – what a great draft class this could be, huh?

Joint sends a message via his blackberry, “Ryan Grant for next season, goodness, I don’t know? I need to keep 2 from this group. (Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald). Which two do you keep? I usually like to go RB, RB – it’s a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D league, and running backs are tough to come by usually, they almost always get kept. But it’s not PPR but Fitz is basically a guarantee for about 100 yards every week, and we get bonuses after 100. Not as much of a TD guy as Boldin, but he’s still solid. What do you think?”

I’m in a league with those exact dimensions, bonuses for 100 for RBs and WRs and 300 for QBs (50 for TEs though, and Witten was a beast early). But the three receivers and just two RBs, I think that makes receiver value very high. Choosing last season between Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Larry Fitz, and Steve Smith – I felt like I had to keep Larry and Frank. I like Reggie alright, but he’s not a bonus type guy. For you, I think I’d stick with Steve Slaton. He’s small, yeah, but the guy rarely gets hit hard. Some RBs do (See Ryan Grant, and many more) and some RBs don’t (LT, Marshal Faulk, etc) – I think Slaton is small, sure, but he doesn’t get hit hard and should stay healthy. Plus, I really like that team going forward. I think Schaub will get better and better, AJ is a BEAST, Owen Daniels is good, and that offensive line is young and improving every game. Plus, Slaton has been nice. I would keep Slaton and Larry. I’ve never been high on keeping QBs, especially when you just need one of those. 3 good WRs are tough to come by in 12+ owner leagues with 3 starting spots. Especially weekly guarantees like Larry. Hope for Kurt’s return and bank on Fitzy!

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

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My Week 14 sees a lot of covers from road teams – and I’m not too sure what to think about that after Week 13 was basically all road team. I do know that I didn’t plan it this way and it’s just the way my eyes see each individual game working out. After another winning week in Lucky Week 13, I’m on to some good things here as well. Don’t trick yourself, check out my free picks!

Oakland Raiders (+11) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have 2 wins by 10 or more points, and last time they played the Raiders they needed 25 4th quarter points to win by 10. What else is that San Diego can’t seem to find a way to come to play against bad teams. The beat KC, sure, but it took a KC missed 2-point conversion to get that win, as they took the Chiefs by a score. It hasn’t been pretty for one of the more talented teams in the AFC, as seen by their 4-8 record after 13 weeks. The Raiders have just 3 wins, but they are playing close with opponents. They’ve finished within 11 points of their opponent in each of their last 4 games, including a big win over Denver in Denver. Should the Raiders be in this game? No, but this is the NFL and the Chargers defense hasn’t been good enough. The whole team hasn’t come to play against lesser opponents. The Raiders are terrible. Getting up for this game during a lost season seems unlikely. I’ll take Oakland on upset Thursday.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): The Jaguars have 4 wins this season, all coming against teams that can’t run the ball with consistency and power. They have been better on the road (3-3), but that might just be a coincidence based on the teams they’ve played on the road. Indy, Denver, and Detroit were 3 road wins. Indy was brutal early, and still can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Denver is a freaking yo-yo, and they haven’t been able to run the ball consistently all season long, and Detroit – well, they are freaking Detroit (and Kevin Smith still rushed over 100 yards against the Jags). The Bears can really run the ball. Matt Forte is a special big man. He does everything well and that’s everything bad for Jacksonville. I like the Bears to win this one by a touchdown (because, honestly, they haven’t played well over the last half of the season either). They’re still better than the Jags.

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (NOTE AT THE END OF THIS PARAGRAPH) I can’t bet on the Lions at home. I’m telling you, for a team like Detroit, playing at home isn’t a good thing. You have a stadium that is half empty if you know what I mean, and that empty half is hoping to watch a little piece of history – they are there at the expense of the winless team on the field. Minnesota has a rushing attack good enough to crush the Lions defensive front, and Gus, Bernard, and company do enough through the air to take advantage if Detroit lines up 15 in the box. This game still means a ton to the Vikings, and it’s not like playing in a dome is going to bother them all that much. Daunte Culpepper can’t feel good about going up against that defensive front. They cause lots of injuries and get after quarterbacks like it’s their job. And it is. I expect the Vikings to win by 21-28 points. It will be that bad. The Vikings only won by 2 last time out, and that game should have been the Lions only win, and I’m being dead honest. But this game will be different, you can bet on that. (Okay, here it goes, a few minutes after finishing my write-ups and publishing them, I saw that the defensive tackle Williams guys won’t be suiting up for the remainder of the season. Don’t worry, I’m not off of this game, I’ll hold true to my 9, because, well, that’s the way it goes. My advice is to wait on this game though. With those guys out it might come down to 7 points – and I like the Vikings even more at that price. Good luck, but remember, the Vikes just lost 2 All-Pro players, two of the best players on their team, and they play the same position. Somebody will step up for the Vikes, but it’s just a lucky week to have the Lions.)

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): The Texans are 1-5 on the road, with their one win coming against a Cleveland Browns team that finds ways to lose football games. I like the Texans, I think they are a talented team with a bright future, and if they could just get over their road woes and turnover happy quarterbacking, they could be a pretty good team. But the Packers know how to make the most out of turnovers and special teams blunders, and that should be the difference on Sunday. I imagine it will be cold and miserable in Green Bay, and that doesn’t bode will for the Houston Texans chances on the road. The Texans will be coming of the high of a Monday Night Football win in front of everyone, and that, going along with the short week, will probably get them down a little bit. Green Bay is a pretty complete team (besides their rush defense) and I think they have a nice advantage over the Texans because Houston hasn’t beat a complete team all year long. Jacksonville, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami – the Dolphins are easily the best of those five, but not one of those teams strong on offense and defense. The Packers make big plays defensively, and while they give up a lot of yards, it will be those big plays that get them a double digit home win over Houston.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: The Bengals are winless on the road this season, but then again they have one single win, so that’s almost a given. The Bengals have actually played some pretty tough games. They were outmatched by Baltimore’s defense, but all in all they played pretty well against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville – and that’s three of the last four games. The Colts don’t have a stellar defense, and Indy has found ways to play tight with many teams this year, (they’ve won one single game by more than 6 points. I know the Bengals are bad, but it’s not like Indy has been at the top of their game either. Sure, they’ve won 5 straight, but in the last two they won by 3 and 4 disrespectively against teams like San Diego and Cleveland. Not only that, but they should have lost last week to the Browns – you know how I feel about taking teams that should have lost.

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints have given up 20 or more points in every single game they’ve played in this season. When the Falcons have scored at lest 20 points, they are 8-1 (they lost one game scoring 20 against Denver). I haven’t bought in to the Falcons much, and they’ve been killing me because of it. I’m still not completely sure about them, I’m a stubborn bastard, but if you know one thing, you know I don’t think too much of the Saints. Atlanta is the much tougher team and that keeps Drew Brees off the field. This game should be a tight one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints pulled out with a split of this season series, but the side to play is Atlanta, especially with that extra half point.

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: I’d love to take the Giants again – they are a very good football team. But I found +9 on Monday Night, and the Eagles have too much talent to get killed in this game. They also consistently play tight with good football teams, and who knows, maybe they figured it out after Thanksgiving’s destruction of Arizona. I know the Giants don’t have those 3 days of extra rest like Philly, and I know they will be even more exhausted after the Plaxico fiasco. The Giants have been playing great football, but they should come down off their high horse a little against the Eagles. I’ll take the Eagles and 9.

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: I like the Titans to win this game, but coming off a huge win against the worst team in the league, they might be a little bit full of themselves coming home to play a flailing Browns team. The Titans are the better team, no doubt, but they play a lot of close games, and the Browns run defense can be pretty good. Going up against one of the league’s best, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a spirited performance out of that group, and I doubt Cleveland will take a lot of chances with Ken Dorsey at the helm. Less chances means less mistakes, and that’s good when you’re playing the Titans. Tennessee grinds it out, and that means they need help to outscore their opponents by more than two touchdowns. Now I’ve seen some shady tackling out of the Browns this year, but I’ve also seen some well played football. They played well enough defensively to keep Peyton Manning struggling all game long, he looked as bad as I’ve seen him last week. Shaun Rodgers is a beast. I like the Browns and all those points.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): After losing to the 49ers, I like the Bills to rebound. They sure haven’t played well lately, but neither have the Dolphins for that matter. For the same reason as those teams that play the Lions and then struggled, I think the Dolphins will hit the breaks after dabbling with the Rams. Miami couldn’t dominate a bad team once again, and their last 4 weeks have done more to make me question the Dolphins than to fall in love with them. 2 points wins at home against Seattle and Oakland are basically losses in my mind. Then they get crushed by Matt Cassel and the Patriots – and a 4 point win in St. Louis definitely puts up some red-flags. The Bills have really struggled, no doubt, but they played tight with the Jets, Patriots, Browns, killed the Chiefs, and pissed away their game against the Niners. Even if Edwards is out, I think Losman keeps the field open for their running game. Look for Lee Evans to get lost in the Dolphins secondary and end up in the end zone once or twice.

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: Unlike most teams, the Chiefs won’t abandon the run. And that factor will keep them in this game. The Broncos don’t like to play well against bad teams, that seems to be their season-long weakness, and I don’t think that changes in this game. The Chiefs have played good football over the last half of the season, losing big just once in their last 6 games. They only have 2 wins, I understand that, but their 6-6 ATS mark is an example of the way they’ve been playing. The Broncos are coming off a season high last week when they tortured the Jets secondary and won big in New York. Season highs are bound to be followed by less than stellar performances, look at the history of such outings. I’ll take the Chiefs.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I don’t see the value in San Francisco here. I like the 49ers – heck, I like them a lot. They’ve played good football lately, and honestly, they have a chance to cover this spread. But the chance isn’t that good in my opinion, and just about 100% of the public agrees with me. I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset. However, I think the Jets can do enough defensively to stymie the 49ers rushing attack. And putting all that pressure on Shaun Hill seems like a losing battle from SF’s perspective. New York should play better after getting embarrassed by the Broncos. My side is on that happening.

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: I sure hate the Rams, and I like the Cardinals, but Arizona hasn’t shown me that they are a two touchdown favorite type team. Steven Jackson is back, and he gives the Rams a little bit more of an identity. Orlando Pace might return as well, and he could give Bulger just enough time to score a couple times. I think Arizona will run the ball a little more than usual against the Rams, because St. Louis’s run defense is brutal, and that should cause for longer drives and less points. I’ll take the HUGE dog here.

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): A little too much Dallas love for me here. The Steelers are the better team. They aren’t as dinged, and if that’s not enough, they are just flat out better than the Cowboys. So, if a field goal wins it for me, I’ll take it with a smile.

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Patriots need to win to keep their playoff veins pumping blood. The Seahawks don’t need to do anything except continue to disappoint their lame-duck coach. I think Seattle is better than 2-9, but they aren’t as good as the Patriots – not at home, and certainly not when the prime time game was taken out of that National TV spotlight because they are so bad. If that’s not a confidence killer I don’t know what is. The Hawks got killed by Dallas, but prior to that they had played 3 straight solid games with close losses to Miami, Arizona, and Washington. I think New England will have the upper hand in this one, even with the extra rest for Seattle, the Patriots should win by a touchdown.

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are a great team when they can run with ease. You can’t do that against the Bucs. Tampa Bay dominated the Panthers last time these two teams played, and while normally I’d like to look for the home and home split in this situation, I just don’t think this is a good match-up for the Panthers. Getting a half point more than a field goal makes me feel that much better, too. On Monday Night Football, I’m willing to bet the Bucs wily old vets do work and win this game on the road.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 13

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How’d it go? Well I ended up with….. 184 – not too shabby at all. Three Top 5 running backs – that’s how I roll. 

QB: Tony Romo vs. Seattle: 30 points for Tony, not a bad day. He ended up 3rd amongst quarterbacks behind Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers. That’s the day I was looking for. 

RB: Chris Johnson vs. Detroit: Chris Johnson’s 126 yards and two scores was good enough for 8th overall, 4th amongst running backs, he tallied 26 fantasy points on Sunday. 

RB: Steve Slaton vs. Jacksonville: It took him a while to find the end-zone, but once he did, he managed to do it twice. Steve ran well all night, and the Texans pounded a lost Jaguar group on Monday Night Football. Steve busted out 21 carries for 130 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, he also grabbed two balls for 52 yards through the air. Yhatzee. That’s 32 fantasy points for my main man Steven. 

FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Denver: Jones had 100+ yards and 2 scores in the first quarter and a half against the Broncos, but New York stopped running the ball after that. Why? Well because they wanted to lose obviously. And if failing, they succeeded. Yhatzee. Still, Jones finished behind just Westbrook and DeAngelo amongst running backs, finishing with 29 fantasy points. 

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Cleveland: Reggie had just 4 catches for 46 yards as Peyton was off-target. That duo killed me in more than a couple leagues this weekend. 8 points for Reggie. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New York Jets: Marshall didn’t do much better than Reggie, grabbing 5 balls for 55 yards. Brandon dropped a couple passes, one of which would have been good for a touchdown. Nice. 10 points. 

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Atlanta: 3 catches for 27 yards – weak sauce. I wasn’t impressed with the Chargers as their season was on the line and they chocked on a fishy cracker. 5 points. 

K: Rod Bironas vs. Detroit: What do you know? I called it. The guy kicked 4 field goals, all 40-49 yarders and he busted in 5 extra points to boot. That is good for 21 fantasy points and my biggest kicker day ever, not to mention the #1 kicker overall in Week 13. My kicker curse has been kicked! 

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati: 23 fantasy points in my league, quite the day from the Ravens. 

PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Just 162 yards and no touchdown for Tyler, but his 48 rushing yards added to his point total and he got 9 against the Raiders – still not enough for me. D+

Kyle Orton: 153 yards and 2 touchdowns, but -6 points from 3 interceptions didn’t help his cause. Still, 12 points for Kyle. C-

Warrick Dunn: Just 74 rushing yards for Warrick, not a great day by any means. No TDs and no catches. C-

Ronnie Brown: 48 rushing yards and a touchdown – that has been about what Ronnie does, I expected more from him against the Rams. C-

Kevin Walter: 2 grabs for 38 yards, yeah, sorry about that, I didn’t think the Jaguars defense would roll over for the rushing game quite like that. D-

Domenick Hixon: 5 catches for 71 yards, and if you picked him up and started him then you get a nice starting option from here on out because Plaxico shot himself. Nice. B+

Devin Hester: 3 grabs for 67 yards and a touchdown. Just like I hoped, Devin found the end zone. A-

Zach Miller: 5 grabs for 79 yards, that’s a nice day from a waiver wire tight end. A-

Miami Dolphins: 10 points from Miami, they didn’t play as well as I thought they would against one of the league’s worst. Weird. 

Papa’S Week 13 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Kerry Collins: 4 fantasy points from Kerry – so much for that dreamy Detroit Lions secondary match-up eh? You’re welcome. 

Timothy Hightower: 7 rushing yards, his 3 grabs for 34 yards gave him 6 points in a PPR league, still, you’re welcome if you’ve listened to me about this guy and the Cards rushing attack. 

Clinton Portis: 11 carries, 22 yards, 1 catch for 15 yards – your welcome to those who listened. 

Lee Evans: 7 catches for 80 yards is a nice day from Lee, not great, but good enough to make me wrong about his benching in Week 13. 

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13

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Well I didn’t kill it in Week 13, that’s for sure, but I did finish above a push, and that’s definitely the goal. I had a tough start to the week with 2 losses on Thanksgiving, but a Houston cover on Monday Night Football would get me 3 games over .500 with a nice 4-1 record with my best picks of the week – how’d it turn out in Houston? Well those Texans did alright… As for the entire week, I was 2 points away from two more wins, but you can’t win them all. Check it out! 

Thanks Giving Day Games

Tennessee Titans (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Absolute domination, the Titans are good – the Lions are bad, and that seemed to be the theme throughout. Ha. I won this one with flying colors. 

Seattle Seahawks (+13) @ Dallas Cowboys: (loss) I was fooled, or the Seahawks just played really bad. I know this, the Hawks looked like one of the worst teams in football. Matt Hasselbeck is erratic, the receivers drop balls, the running game is non-existent, and Holmgren is still calling a “play not to lose” game. Hello Mike, you are just about retired, your team has 2 wins through Week 13, and you are still play calling like a puss ball. Get your life together. Ah, was I wrong? You bet. 

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (loss) “This one is actually very tough for me. Just letting you guys know, besides a few tweaks here and there, I basically pick teams based on what types of teams they are compared to what types of teams they struggle with. The Cardinals are a pass heavy team with a suspect rushing attack. They have a defense that can stop the run alright, but that generally struggles stopping the pass. The Eagles have a good defense, and a very talented secondary. From what I see, the Cardinals have yet to beat a team with a good secondary so far this season. But I’m still taking the Cardinals. I think they are even with the Eagles, as far as team strength goes, but Philly is in shambles a little bit, and that’s never seemed to work for Donovan or the rest of the National bird. Going against my own flow here, that’s not always a good thing, so be careful with this one.” I warned you and myself. Hopefully you listened to me (the smart analyzer) and ignored me (the go against my own game plan bettor). Silly me. The Eagles got it together and McNabb showed Andy Reid why benching him is a stupid move. The Eagles have two great players, McNabb and Westbrook. Their coach is a bit of a donkey these days. 

Sunday Games 

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) And the 49ers win outright. Haha! Mike is a good coach. He has toughness and his honesty will always get his guys to play hard. As a touchdown dog I like the Niners – especially against a crumbling Bills team. 

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) So much for the Books always winning. Everyone was on this one, including me, and the Ravens won big. You have to love a day when everyone gets a little richer and the books take a little bit of a hit. Don’t get too excited though, they’ll get you back next week! Ha. 

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (Loss – by a point) I hate the Colts. 

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) My contrasting thoughts were justified as this one came down to the wire. An amazing catch by Steve Smith and a 4th rushing touchdown by DeAngelo Williams put the Panthers up 5 and gave me a winner. Still, I felt like this one was up in the air the entire game. 

Denver Broncos (+9) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. But I think they give the Jets trouble in Week 13. Jay Cutler is bound to play better after his terrible outing at home last week, and the Broncos have played better on the road than at home this season. 9 points is a lot, especially when one team is coming off their lowest low of the season and the other is coming off their highest high. The only play here is Denver.” The Broncos dominated this game from the get go, and besides two long runs, and one of them was a freakish roll non-tackle run, the Broncos shut down the Jets rushing attack, and sent Peyton Hillis into one of the best run defenses in the league and came out with 120 yards and a score. It’s amazing how good and then how bad Denver can be. Luckily I had them on a good night. 

Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams: (No pick in this game, I didn’t get back to the site after Thanks Giving, and then forgot to come back in before Sunday’s game and pick this one – my bad for sure)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): (Loss by a point) This was my second half point loss, and that always hurts. That’s how a 11-4 week turns into 9-6 – think about how much different those two records are. The Bucs had it at a 10 point game, but then went into run down the clock mode. That got them a tie, and they needed a couple Drew Brees interceptions to get a field goal to go ahead, and then to end the game. Just missed on this one. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Redskins just can’t score the ball and the Giants shut down Clinton Portis. I was never worried about this one. 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5): (Loss) The Falcons continue to surprise me, and the Chargers continue to disappoint me. Atlanta has a good coaching staff that gets their players to play tough every week. Michael Turner went for 120 rushing yards compared to LT’s 20 something… I’m sure MT loved that. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I don’t think the Pats defense can hold Pittsburgh under 24 points, and I don’t see Pittsburgh giving up more than a couple touchdowns. If you add those two things together, and I inevitably do, you have to be on the Steelers here.” 33-10 Steelers. This game went just like I thought it would go. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I love it when my dogs win outright. I expected Tyler Thigpen to have a big game leading the Chiefs to victory, but it was a familiar leader, Larry Johnson, that went old school on the Raiders and used his legs to split this season series. 

Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Loss) The Vikings seem to be figuring it out in the secondary, and that should keep them in first place in the NFC North. I missed on this one. 

Monday Night Game

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-3): (WINNER) It was really nice to get this one. From what I hear the “sharp” money and the public money had the Jaguars winning this one. It’s good to be the extreme minority, at least in this one case. This one more win made a tough week a little bit sweeter, giving me three more games in the green, and getting over the push for the first time in a while. I definitely enjoyed this beatdown.