Tag Archives: Free NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints NFL Week 15 Picks

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Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints NFL Week 15 Picks: A couple things I know. I know the Saints have done their best work against the best teams they’ve played. I know the Saints are led by one hell of a leader in Drew Brees. I know the Saints have been playing pretty damn good football on both sides of the ball, especially when Sedrick Ellis is doing work up front on defense. I know the Saints are loaded with playmakers, and can run the ball almost as well as they pass it. I also know that the Saints want to win every game, and that competitive spirit is part of the reason they are so goo. I know all these things and yet I’m still taking the Dallas Cowboys, and honestly, I like the Cowboys to give the Saints their first loss of the season. However, taking the 7.5 points makes me feel a lot safer.

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I’m a strong believer in the idea that you don’t give a good team a touchdown to play with and get away with it too often. Despite the Cowboys recent publicity labeling them a soft late season football team, and their 0-2 start to December looming, the Cowboys are a pretty good team. A touchdown loss to the Giants in New York and a 3 point loss to San Diego don’t sound so bad when you think about it.

New Orleans has had a tough time of it lately, needing magic, luck, and a crappy kick to beat the Washington Redskins in overtime two weeks ago, and barely getting by an injury ridden Falcons team 26-23 last week. It may be their time. I know they want to win them all, but I think Dallas gives them a run, if only to shut people up in Big D.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 15 Picks

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Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 15 Picks: Believe it or not, I think the Browns have some positive vibes going through the organization right now. There’s a pretty good chance a proven winner is going to take over the football operations of a Cleveland team that hasn’t seen the playoffs since the Browns turned into the Ravens.But this team has been pretty competitive over the last 4 games, even going as far as beating the Steelers last week on Thursday Night Football. They’ve had three extra days to prepare for one of the bottom dwellers in football. I think they have an amazing chance to win 2 games in a row, something I didn’t think I’d be saying this season. They’ve already covered 4 straight games, and they’ve scored more points over the last 4 games than the scored the first 8 games of the season combined. Like it or not, the Browns are hot – for Browns anyway.

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The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been playing their worst football of the year. After being competitive for the early stretch, and going as far as winning 2 straight and covering three straight, the Chiefs have been outscored 103-37 over the last 3 games. Kansas City is just 1-5 at home this season, one of their worst home performances that I can remember. While their running game has being going well, Matt Cassel has been a turnover machine, and his inability to move the ball down field has hurt the Chiefs all year long.

I like the Browns to keep doing what they’ve been doing, playing well defensively and getting enough from Brady Quinn and their young receivers.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs:

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview

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Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview: The Cardinals have bounced back all season, and it’s not like the Lions boast to be a formidable foe – and while the Cardinals certainly are tough for me to trust, I have to believe they get back on the horse and pummel a Lions secondary that ranks 451st in the NFL this season. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but at the very highest, bottom 400…

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The problem with taking the Cardinals is that if they won, Vegas would get killed. It happens every once in a while, don’t get me wrong, and that’s never been a reason for me to go one way or another, but it is a reason to think twice about the amount of dough you throw down on the Cards. In some books I see 98% wagers on the Cards – in other books, right around 75%. The overall numbers I see has 71% of the public taking the Cardinals – but like I said, the books don’t always win.

The Cardinals haven’t lost two games in a row all season long. They are 4-2 on the road this season, 4-2 ATS as well. But they’ve lost each of their last 2 road games, and aside from their 30-17 win over the Vikings two weeks ago, the Cards haven’t been playing great football of late. Losses to the 49ers and Titans and a win over the Seahawks when they were down in the 4th – those have to bring up some questions. But like I said, they haven’t lost 2 in a row all season long, and against a Lions defense where they can run with success, I like big plays to be key to an easy Cardinals cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions

Week 15 NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

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Week 15 NFL Picks, New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Are the Patriots better than the Bills? You bet, but there’s something to be said about the perfect match-up, and how can you not take a team that plays with anybody during the first three quarters, only to lose most of their games in the 4th – against a team that plays well in the first half, only to struggle and let their opponents back in the game in the 2nd? How can you? Oh, I know, you can’t because these are the Patriots and the Bills are the underdog, and for that reason I can at least respect you – but I have to take the underdog, because not only are the Bills playing better football, smarter football, but they’ve played the Patriots tough once already, in a game they should have won, and they’ve played pretty tight games with New England in the last three match-ups. But mostly, this is the Bills Super Bowl, a chance to pile on a tough season for the playoff bound Patriots, a chance to get a big win.

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The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 games, and have played pretty good football in each of their last 4 contest, winning ATS in three of them, and falling by just 6 to the Jets.

The Patriots are just 1-5 on the road, and their one win came as the “road team” in a game played in England – not New England, regular old across the Atlantic Ocean, England. So yeah, they are winless on the road this season, and quite honestly, they’re probably playing their worst football of the season. Asking for the Bills to win outright might be a little much, but as 7.5 point dogs, I like their chances.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5)

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens

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Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens: Listen, I, as much as anyone, think the Chicago Bears are garbage – but right now you can get them anywhere from 11 to 12 point underdogs, and this team just hasn’t lost many games by a margin that large. What else? The Baltimore Ravens put up 48 points last week and still only average 24.5 points per game. The Bears have also lost everybody money this year, at least everybody backing them, they are just 4-9 ATS on the season, 5-8 overall. That last record will get worse, that first one will get better.

The Bears have lost 3 games by double digits, Arizona, Minnesota, and Cincinnati (in the Bengals biggest offensive performance of the season). All of those teams have been better than the Ravens this season. But all three have a pretty tough run defense, and if that commonality is the key, the Bears could have a tough time, because you know the Ravens can stop the run.

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But what has me on the Bears side is their normally close ball games, and their ability to pick on secondaries that struggle in pass defense. The Bengals aren’t bad, but their secondary can surely be exploited. The Bears have some very fast receivers, and Jay Cutler has one of the best arms in the NFL. Now I know the Ravens will get the better side of a couple Jay Cutler passes, and I know the Bears defense isn’t what it used to be, so we’re just going to call this a whim. I’m taking Chicago to cover here.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens:

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I think that, when this line came out, the line was reflecting a general prediction that the Colts were going to start resting starters. But when Indy announced that everybody that is healthy will play, all hell broke loose and the lines shot in another direction, and all the while most books don’t even have the game as an option. It’s tough when it’s the Thursday Night game and there’s no real injuries, and still Vegas can’t pull their collective heads out far enough to go with a proper line for the dang thing. But now, Wednesday morning early, the game is a 3 point spread in favor of the Colts, and while it’s no gimmie, I have to like Indy on the road here.

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It’s not Indy as much as it’s Jacksonville, I just can’t trust them. They’re good enough to challenge the Colts – nothing they do is flashy, but they have enough solid play offensively to put up some points, and holding an Indy team that isn’t playing at full strength, for rest or minor injuries, seems possible. Even with their unexciting defense the way it is. But how can you trust the Jaguars? They’re way up, way down, unimpressive at home, terrible on the road, barely beating bad teams, getting killed by a handful, and they just don’t play smart football.

In the end, I trust the Colts more than the Jaguars, and think their football intelligence, as much on the sidelines as on the field, will get them their 14th win over Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick: It’s painful for me to do this, I mean, the 49ers have been pretty good to me this year and my favorite player ever to lace up his cleats and put a uniform on is Mike Singletary – but I have to go with the road favorites this week, and it has a lot to do with Singletary allowing his offense to become a spread it out, pass first, run never attack that doesn’t allow them to control the game whatsoever. Mike… Why are you doing it to me, my man? You have Frank Gore in the backfield, run the ball!

The Cardinals have been very good on the road, and even more importantly, very good lately. Some people are going to go-on-ahead and call this a trap game, but it’s hard for me to believe that the Cardinals won’t be ready for a NFC West seal-up game against the 2nd best team in their division. Now, 70% of the public bet likes Arizona, and I know this one isn’t as lopsided as a percentage like that would insist, but I still have to take the Cardinals with a chance for a push if they win by just a field goal.

It’s very hard to beat a good team twice in one season (though that seems to be happening more this season), and the 49ers almost seem like a different team since they snuck by the Cardinals on opening day. They have a little more explosion offensively, but they’ve traded in stability for explosiveness, and I don’t think that’s a good trade for them. The Cardinals have played pretty well in each of their last 5 games, and won each of the last 4 Kurt Warner has started in. With a chance to lock up the division, I think they come out and win a hard-nosed battle on Monday Night.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick: This Sunday Night Football game should be a great one. NBC definitely does a better job than ABC and a way better job than the NFL Network when it comes to picking great match-ups. Maybe they have a special deal? Maybe they’re just smarter – whatever it is, the chance for the Giants to pull into a tie with Philadelphia, and the chance the Eagles have to stay atop their division, makes for one hell of a Nationally televised game – especially when it’s the Eagles and the Giants, two of the more popular teams in all of sports.

This match-up has been more than great over the years, in fact, while the Eagles have won three straight, they’ve been the underdog in all three games. Even more amazing, the underdog has covered this match-up in each of the last ten games, and the underdog has won outright in 9 of the last 10. That’s unheard of. The road team has won 7 of the last 10 games. Only three times since 2005 has the game finished with more than a touchdown separating the two, and the Eagles have won 2 in a row by double digits – including a 40-17 win in Philly earlier this season.

Neither team has a ton of injuries, but both will be missing key players. Brian Westbrook, probably the most important guy in this offense over the last five years, is doubtful yet again. Aside from that, most of the recently injured Eagles are probably for Sunday Night’s game. The Giants don’t have a bunch of injuries, but the few they’ve had have been crucial. Kenny Philips and Antonio Pierce are both out for the season, and the Giants are a little dinged on the offensive line as well. This should be a heck of a game, but I like the Eagles in this huge match-up.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants:

Papas Picks: NFL Week 14 Underdog Predictions

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Alright, I’ve gone 4-1 twice in the last 3 weeks – but the week I didn’t run into 4-1 was a tough one to stomach. I guess that’s the way with underdogs, when the ball doesn’t bounce your way, you look like a dope. I looked pretty solid last week as two of my unpopular dogs won outright, the Dolphins and Raiders. I was pretty stunned the Steelers fell at home to the Raiders, but I was pretty happy looking at 15.5 points against a team that hadn’t won big all year. It’s too bad I never write this article quick enough for Thursday games, because I would have loved getting another underdog win over the Steelers… This week, I have a couple more Dogs that look like pedigree models with all there glorious points – here are this week’s picks.

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Washigton Redskins @ Oakland Raiders (+1): The Redskins find ways to lose, really, they are very good at it. The Raiders have turned it around a bit, and now that they can complete a simple pass to a wide open receiver, they aren’t nearly as bad as before. I like them to win their 3rd in 4 games – crazy.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: The Chargers are better than the Cowboys, and Dallas always hits a wall and loses important games late. If they lose here, they have are guaranteed to be 2nd place in the NFC East – that means it’s a big game – that means trouble for Big D.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Bears are 4-2 at home this year – so that’s what I have going for me here. They’ve played much worse than they are, and the Packers have been on a streak of really impressive games – I think those things are bound to turn around in one cold afternoon in Chicago.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Baltimore Ravens: Oh the Ravens and their impotent offense, I mean un-potent, well, what ever it is, it’s not producing many hits lately. With Daunte starting (for a guy with really small hands, I still think he’s pretty good, but I might be living in his fantasy dominating past) I think the Lions have a good chance to put up a few touchdowns through the air, the kid has always thrown the deep ball well. That will be enough to cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) @ Houston Texans: I know the Hawks suck on the road, but this team is finally getting healthy, and there’s nothing like a team finally getting healthy when all the other teams are finally starting to lose some players. Houston has struggled lately, definitely misses having one of their most dynamic players in the backfield, and is just 2-4 on the road this season. Oh yeah, and there’s rumbling that their coach might get the axe – that’s never good. One more thing, they’ve lost 4 straight.

San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks

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San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks: A lot of people like the Chargers this week, and while I, in the end, am with them, it’s not that easy for me. I think Dallas will have a lot of pressure for Philip Rivers, and I think the Cowboys are sick of hearing about this December swoon crap, and I think they’ll come ready to play this Sunday. When the Cowboys come ready to play, they are definitely one of the tougher teams in the NFL to beat.

But I also like what the Chargers have done, and just barely enough, just by the smallest of margins, like them to cover on the road in Dallas. I think the Chargers have spread the ball around enough to force Dallas’s secondary to pay more attention to other pass catchers, and that will probably open up some things for Vincent Jackson to make big plays like he was earlier in the year.

I also think the Chargers throw a bit of a monkey wrench in the plans of Dallas by running the ball with some success early. The Chargers haven’t been very good running the ball yet this year, but I see a little something going well for LT and the Bolts rushing attack this week in Dallas.

The Chargers secondary has also turned things around. After a tough start to the season, and questionable play most of last year, the Chargers are making plays and keeping the ball in front of them. If they can make Dallas work for their points, I think they pull the upset in Big D. It’s a very tough call for me, but my lean has to be on San Diego, “Spanish for Whale’s Vagina.” 🙂

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys