Tag Archives: Free NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

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The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

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Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16

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San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16: Listen, I don’t want to make this about more than it is. One of these two teams is better than the other. One of these teams has something to play for. One of these teams has a better defense and a more impressive offense. One of these teams in an underdog despite clearly being the “One team” in all the above statements. I know it seems crazy, but I’m taking that team to win outright on the road in this one.

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To talk about the Chargers for a second, it seems they haven’t lost a December game since they’ve been a player in the AFC. They’ve been a handful for anyone and everyone come playoff time, or the last month of the season, and this year is no different. The Chargers started a little slow, falling far behind the Denver Broncos in a mediocre AFC West, but 9 wins in a row can quell lots of problems, and the Chargers have taken a solid lead over the rest of the AFC not playing home games in Indianapolis.

The Tennessee Titans also went on a pretty spectacular run, especially when you consider their 0-6 start to the season. Since then, and since they inserted Vince Young into the starting quarterback role, the Titans are 7-1 and continue to do their best in the spoiler role.

But the bottom line is the Titans have beaten just one team with a record better than .500 as of today. One. The Arizona Cardinals, in Tennessee. Now Arizona can be a great team, no doubt, but they can also be terrible, and having that single home win over a better than .500 team doesn’t impress-a-me-much. I’ll take the powerful dogs in this one.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans:

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 15 2009 Football

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It wasn’t glorious in all it’s light, but it was another winner. I’ve had a handful of close weeks in a row, but with a solid start, it’s hard to argue with a couple games over .500 here, a couple over there, one over here, (and last week, one under) – I’ve had a solid year, as many of you know, and giving away 100% of the NFL games for absolutely nothing has hopefully helped you profit. And while it starter well early, had a mid-day lull, and took me all the way until Monday Night to assure myself yet another winner, Week 15 was indeed another winner, and with two more yet to go, here’s the review…

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Winner) The Colts did indeed play their starters throughout, and I needed every bit of that starter action to get the job done. Peyton (starter) threw a touchdown pass, a deep one, to a wide open Reggie Wayne (starter) after the Jaguars did their best to end that undefeated season option. Too bad, so sad, the Jaguars couldn’t finish the job – weird.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints (Winner) In my Just Picks Newsletter, I wrote this, “The Cowboys are not playing bad football, despite the press being in favor of the contrary, they’ve had a tough couple games, but are still a good team. Giving a good team more than a touchdown is usually and auto-bet for me, seeing the Saints struggle often in the last 6-7 weeks has me thinking this might be the week defeat becomes a reality.” And in my actual game write-up, I wrote something similar. I saw it coming, the crystal ball was clear for me in this one.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Bears really suck, I’m sorry for taking them, I just couldn’t buy the Ravens putting up huge offensive numbers two weeks in a row – I should have bought in – did I mention how bad the Bears are?

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5) (Winner) Well, the Bills made it close, and only because Tom Brady and the Pats offense was brutal after the first quarter. I don’t know what it is, the cold, the fact that they just aren’t clicking, maybe this team is just losing it, but New England has been brutal of late, and the Bills just barely took advantage and made it close enough for me to cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions (Loss) After being up 17-0 at the end of the first half, the Cardinals came out with poop on their shoes in the 2nd half, and gave up 17 straight to Detroit in a disgusting display of football. They brought it together just enough to get a touchdown win, but they really jerked me around in this one.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was a close one, it had Cleveland/Detroit type highlights, and once again the world became Joshua Cribbs’ oyster – the kid can straight make touchdowns, and a little piece of advice, don’t kick it to him this time…

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets (Winner) The Falcons had little to play for, they were eliminated by the time game-time rolled around, and the Jets still have playoffs aspirations despite losing this game – are you kidding me? the AFC is a mess! New York came out and tried hard not to lose, but probably didn’t run the ball enough. Atlanta’s D-front was game from the get-go, though, and that played a big roll in the Falcons all out road win – they don’t do that much.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Loss) The Eagles made the 49ers look silly, and I still think they are – Frank Gore’s running numbers were great, yet they only ran the guy 16 times – no good Mike, no good at all.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams (Loss) The Texans just barely squeaked this one out. I don’t know how they compiled so many yards without scoring, but they did. Andre Johnson had nearly 200 yards receiving all by himself, on 9 catches, but not a single touchdown. Crazy. The Texans did not enough while still getting the win – underdogs win again!

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3) (PUSH) The Titans let the Dolphins right back in it, and because of their dismal play and lack of late game aggressiveness, all I got was a push out of this one.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5) (Loss) And the Broncos lose outright. What a joke. They had plenty of chances but just weren’t aggressive enough against a Raider team that came out playing hard. And it may end up being a loss that costs them a playoff spot -against Oakland – yeah, the Raiders – gross.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (Winner) The Bengals were good enough to cover easily, and the Chargers needed that game winning field goal to win at home. Cincinnati is good folks, I keep telling you, don’t let their big loss to Minnesota sway you, this Bengals team is legit on both sides of the ball.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) (Winner) What can I say? Everything pointed the other way, but you knew the Steelers would find a way to not lose 6 in a row. With nothing to play for, except pride, they sure showed a lot, winning this game as time expired. This was the Lucky in LuckyLester…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) (Loss) Jim Mora should sell punching bags with his face on it, Seattle fans would buy those out for Christmas presents in one day.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers (Loss) The Vikings were horrible – the Panthers showed up. Defensively, Carolina shut down a lot of Minnesota’s game plan, and in the end, this game turned into a Carolina blowout – making a lot of people wonder if Favre will continue to struggle in late-season situations.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins (Winner) The Giants dominated the Redskins. I wondered if it was possible for Washington to continue their solid play, and came up with the answer, nope. As it turned out, in the rubber game, I was right on the money. New York was the much better team on MNF.

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Picks

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Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Picks: The Green Bay Packers are probably the better team, but just barely, and not by nearly as much as everyone would like you to think. The Steelers, even in their saddened state, are still a great even bet at home – it’s not like they have injuries up the kazoo, they still have plenty of studs and Super Bowl champs, and it’s not like Green Bay is above a loss to a struggling team. Remember, if it weren’t for the Packers, the Bucs might still be battling winless infamy. But Green Bay has played well, and Pittsburgh has dumped in their girdles, but isn’t that bound to turn around soon?

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I know Pittsburgh is out of it, but this is still a team with a lot of pride, you can’t say anything else about a winning organization like this. Green Bay struggled against Chicago last week, and the Bears aren’t much. The Steelers are also very good at home, beating Minnesota, San Diego, and Tennessee there already.

The Packers are good, and there winning streak has been impressive, but I’m still not sold on their ability to pull away from a good team. And the Steelers can play this game. They can also win a close one late, and that might be what the deal ends up being here. I like Mike Tomlin and trust his ability to win a big game before the season is over – playing spoiler is something the Steel-show can do very well.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk)

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers Pick & Preview

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Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers Pick & Preview: I don’t know why this line is the way it is. Giving the Bengals seven points in San Diego is basically saying the Chargers are 4 points better than Cincinnati – and that I can’t buy into. I may be a little bit cynical, but the amazing 8-win stretch that San Diego is currently rocking is just another reason for me to go with my gut and take the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off their worst performance of the year (if you throw out that loss to the freaking Oakland Raiders) while the Chargers are coming off a game where they played so-so and beat the Cowboys. The Bengals won’t dump in their pants two weeks in a row, and the Chargers are bound to struggle a bit more really soon.

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San Diego is 10-3, yes, but it’s not like the Bengals are chunky soup – they are 9-4 and have beaten up on some pretty good teams this season. They can run, pass, play damn good defense, and have a team full of emotion after the death of their teammate earlier in the week. I’m not playing the “emotional” card, I’m going with my original feeling about the game, but I definitely believe that the majority of athletes play better when they are trying to prove something, right a wrong, fight for something – and there’s a chance the current situation in Cincinnati helps the Bengals play better this week.

The bottom line is you don’t give a good team a touchdown, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. I know the Bengals played bad last week, but a team playing bad last week is a terrible reason to go against them. Upset city, folk, the 7 points are even that much nicer.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers:

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos: NFL Week 15 Pick

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Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos NFL Week 15 Pick: I don’t know what it is about this bet that makes me feel so good, maybe the fact that Denver plugs bad teams, or maybe the idea that the Oakland Raiders will be starting a practice squad player that failed to make it with all the other teams that gave him a chance, or maybe the fact that Al Davis is using up all the team energy to power the breathing unit that keeps oxygen entering his life system. Shoot, I know a lot about this game has me liking the Broncos at -12.5 – I’d be happier at -10, because it’s not like this offensive unit is stellar in Denver, but I’ll do with 12.5.

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The “practice squad player” isn’t a running back or a lineman or a kicker, the guy is going to get the nod at quarterback for the black and silver. And who is going to be second string? That’s still a toss up between J.P. Losman (signed six minutes ago) and JaMarcus Russell (infinitely one of the biggest number one busts of all time) or Al Davis himself. This is beginning to become a bad joke with so many punchlines that my eyes are swelling shut – either from the punches or the tears, or both.

Sure, the Raiders have surprised some teams, especially lately, and they have a decent rushing attack – but you can’t argue for one minute that this group of guys really stands a chances with the “front office people” (Al Davis and Al Davis) running the show. I feel terribly for Richard Seymour. That’s all. Denver, do it.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5):

Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks

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Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks: This line has been weird all week, basically unbetable in most books, and I’m not really sure why that is. I know the Texans have an underrated defense, they are missing a rushing attack, but they have one of the better passing attacks in the league despite missing one of their best receiving options, TE, Owen Daniels.

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I know the Rams don’t have a very good rushing attack, but they do have Steven Jackson, though dinged up he be, and he’s good enough to be a threat and get close to 100 yards on the ground. I know that no matter who is healthy and who is injured for the Rams, they are going to have a bad quarterback with smallish wide receivers that rarely get the ball thrown to them where they can make a play. So exactly what the books are waiting for here is beyond me, but at -10, I think the Texans can do the job.

Those are the things, amongst other things as well, that I know.

Houston just needs to put two halves together and this thing will be more lopsided than NASCAR’s turning signals. If they don’t string together two well played halves, I still think 10 is a solid number for them to cover. Houston has been pretty solid on the road (3-3 with wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee) and they have beat up on bad teams (hello Bills -31 to 10, Raiders -29 to 6, and Seahawks -34 to 7). That’s good enough for the girl I go with, I’ll take the Texans.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL

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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL: This could be one of those games that the Eagles just lose so they can make things five times as difficult for themselves – admit it – they have a knack for paddy-whacking themselves right into the most difficult of situations no matter how sunny the horizon looks. But they can also score three touchdowns on two possessions, and continue to be one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, on both sides of the ball.

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But I can’t look past the Niners and nine points – it just seems to perfect to fail me. Niners and nine – the only way I’d feel better, the only way I’d feel I absolutely had to bet the Niners at all cost would be if they were getting 49 points – shoot – even if they were favored by 49, the symmetry would be too good to pass up. But 9 points? The 49ers have lost one single game by more than 7 points this season. In their 7 losses, four of them have been by 4 points or less. This team also plays close games, and they are also pretty good.

The Eagles passing attack matches up well with the 49ers leaky secondary, but throwing the ball to win every game doesn’t always go as easily as planned, similar to in basketball when you live by the three and die by the three, the Eagles have shot themselves square in the bag of goods on more than a couple occasions. The 49ers will make them earn it, and despite being just 1-5 on the road, San Fran looks like a nice bet with 9 points.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks

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Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks: When it comes right down to it, I think the Falcons are a lot better than their record insists, both these teams play close games, and Atlanta should be as healthy as they’ve been in the last month. The only thing I have going against me here is the Falcons’ road woes, and woeful they are indeed. Atlanta has just one road win in six chances, going 1-5 away from Atlanta this season.

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But I think the Falcons are better than a 6-7 insinuates – look at their losses. Aside from Carolina (a team that just happens to be a match-up nightmare for the run-defense-less Falcons) Atlanta has only lost to winning teams, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints, Giants, Eagles, and Saints – and 4 if those games have been by one possession. They play close games. And they often step up their play for big games.

The Jets have won 3 straight after losing three straight in November. But it’s not like they’ve played dominate football, they’ve just played one of the softest three weeks in football, playing at home against Carolina, then on the road against powerhouses such as the Bills and Buccaneers – sign me up for that schedule. The Jets haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since they upset the Patriots in Week 2.

Offensively, the Falcons are obviously better, and even against bad defenses, the Jets have had plenty of trouble bringing the football with them to the end-zone. That’s enough for me to take the Falcons at +6.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets