A nice 4-2-1 week in week 6 has me on the up and up, but I’ll need two solid winners in a row if I want to even think about smelling a winning streak. I’ve got the early lines in and this is how I think I’m going to do it.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ New Orleans Saints:
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

I don’t care who is quarterbacking the Falcons, they’ve had a crappy passing attack in every single game except one all season long. The Leftwich change doesn’t do much. Joey wasn’t as bad as people made him out to be, his receiving corps left him out to dry. Anyway, maybe Leftwich will give the Falcons a chance to get deep, who knows. What I do know is that the Falcons defense has played good football for most of the season, and they’ll show up to play the Saints, they always do. What has New Orleans done to deserve 9? And the public still likes the Saints? I don’t buy it. In fact, I’m selling it. Take the Falcons, they have great value at +9.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Buffalo Bills:
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

Trent Edwards may eventually be the Jim Kelly golden boy the Bills organization has been dream of since Jim hung it up, but I don’t like rookie quarterback against the Ravens. That is what you’d call a bad match-up. The public loves this bet, everyone and their mother is taking the Ravens, but I don’t see it any other way. You either take the Ravens, or you don’t take it at all. I wouldn’t advise a huge play on Baltimore, if only because the books really seem to like the Bills in this one, but hey, I personally think the books are wrong.

New England Patriots (-16.5) @ Miami Dolphins:
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

I know Cleo Lemon looked good last week against Cleveland, but give your head a shake if you think the youngster will do up the Patriots secondary. I know the Patriots have yet another college spread to cover, but compared to New England, yeah, the Dolphins are a college team. For those Dolphin backers out there, how can you bet on a team that traded their top receiving threat for a 2nd round pick next season, and waived the only safety that was making any plays in their secondary. Look at that starting secondary and tell me they are going to slow down Tom Brady… While I’m waiting, I’ll be laying some cash down on the Patriots.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (+1.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

Look at this one on Sunday Morning. If the Titans are starting Vince Young, take the Titans, he’s just not a good guy to wager against. However, I’ll just bite the bullet and take the Texans, because even with Vince, the Titans aren’t a sure thing. But with Kerry Collins throwing balls in Tennessee, I really like the Texans chances to move ahead of the Titans here. Matt Schaub is coming off a couple bad games, and I think he’ll turn it around this week at home.

N.Y. Jets (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t buy the Bengals as a 7 point favorite. I think Cinci’s defense is bad enough to allow Chad Pennington to have a big day, which does not bode well for the Bengals. I also think Thomas Jones could rush for about 150 yards in Cinci this week. It will be a high scoring affair, I can almost guarantee you that. The Bengals don’t have much of a rushing attack, and I think that will be the dagger in their covering hearts. Look at it this way; the only team the Bengals have beat is an overrated Ravens team, and they only won because the Ravens turned the ball over 6 times. I can’t wait to watch this game on Sunday.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker -4.5)

I don’t like this game at all. If I didn’t take every game, I would leave this one alone. I want to take the Bears, because the Eagles have been, well, frankly crappy. I want to take the Eagles because the Bears have been brutal all season long, minus one half against the Packers. Anyway, I’m taking the home team here, because I think the Eagles defense will be too much for Brian Griese to handle. A couple Rexxy-like interceptions in this one will probably be enough to cover. I advise you to sit this one out, but if you’re picking your weekly office pool, and need to lean one way or another, take the Eagles because of their defensive strength.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Belmont)

The Seahawks are the better team here. The Rams defense is brutal. Their offense is worse. They don’t have the bulk to out-muscle a relatively soft Hawks defensive front, and when Marc Bulger goes back to pass, his offensive line full of back-ups won’t give him nearly enough time to pick apart the Seahawks. I also don’t think the Hawks will struggle at home again after the Saints embarrassed them last week. This is usually where the Hawks step it up, and I think they’ll do just that this week at home.

Week 5 wasn’t bad, but I’ve yet to hit a week right on the head. I have a feeling this is going to be that week. I haven’t changed anything up, and I’m sticking to my rules, which means I’m about to get right back on track. Follow my games, and if my Free Picks aren’t enough, dial up my Elite Action for this Sunday’s games.

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Tuesday, 6:00pm EST: Bodog)

I think the Vikings and Bears are right about equal. Before the season, I didn’t think the Bears looked as good as they have been, and then injuries flooded that secondary. The Vikings are pretty healthy, and come in with a formidable rushing attack that will definitely put pressure on the Bears’ defensive front. Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, not the Bears’) is an absolute beast. The Packers showed that the Bears can be run on, and I think the Vikings will take note. With Chester Taylor working in tandem with Peterson, they’ll both stay fresh and pound this game to a close finish.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Tuesday, 6:00pm EST: NewBodog)

I think Gus Frerote can lead the Rams to enough scoring drives to put pressure on the Ravens. The Ram O-Line seems to be playing better together, and that is what this game will rely on. I like the Ravens to win this one, but giving Baltimore a 10 point hole to dig out of seems like a poor wager. The Ravens have been bad (at least) offensively, and touchdowns have been very hard to come by. 10 points, even the pathetic Rams can give than spread a test. I like them to make a play late to finish just within the spread, giving me a big underdog win.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00pm EST: BetEd)

After getting embarrassed last week by the Colts, Tampa should be back in full force on Sunday. I like all aspects of the Bucs’ team. They have a defense that hustles to the ball and makes tackles. They have an offense that doesn’t do anything great, but holds on to the ball for long periods of time, and Jeff Garcia is a leader. He makes very few mistakes, and accurately throws the ball. Tennessee has been doing well lately, as their only loss came against Indy. This game means something to both teams, but I’m going with the home team to cover by a field goal.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This is a very tough game, one of those I wouldn’t pick if I didn’t pick every single game. I think the Packers and Redskins are basically the same team. They both have tough defenses and thus far have been pretty one-dimensional offensively. The Packers pass the ball successfully, while most of the Redskins’ yards come on the ground. Over the last 2 games, Campbell has cut down on mistakes, but the Packers might just force him into an interception or two. The Packers didn’t run the ball well to start the season, but they’ll have Jackson, Morency, and Wynn healthy for the first time this season. I think this game goes to the Packers at home, but it’s a tough one to call, one I’d stay away from.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-9.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I just think LT has an LT day against the Raiders, and the Chargers win 28-14. That covers, not by a lot, but a cover is a cover. Phillip Rivers has looked decent enough lately to keep the Raiders’ honest, and Oakland’s defense hasn’t been as good this year as they were last time around. I know its hard to justify taking the Chargers after just one good game, but defensively they were so much better last week. Plus, I wasn’t one to buy the Chargers’ demise quite yet. A win here puts them back in first place in the AFC West.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This Sunday Night game won’t quite have the hype it looked like it would have coming into the season. The Saints have been pathetic when compared to pathetic teams, and thus are winless coming into Seattle. I was convinced that New Orleans would start to play better, but after last week’s lost to the terrible Panthers, I’m not so sure. And coming into Seattle where the crowd always makes it tough on opposing offenses, plus they have to go up against a very tough defense led by Julian Peterson and Lofa – yeah, I have to take the Hawks here, even with that near-touchdown cushion they are giving.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are the better team here. They make fewer mistakes, they run the ball better, and their defense is more of a force. I know Houston started out hot, and this game is usually close, but because of the way Houston has been playing, I don’t see the Jaguars looking past this game like they have in the past. David Garrard may not be flashy, but he wins football games. A 10 point win here looks like the right choice. Andre Johnson isn’t back yet, so that’s one more thing going right for the Jaguars.

I struggled through my free picks last week, winning a whopping two, but I was over .500 on my Elite Picks, as a few of you very well know. I have my money on a winning bet in both my Free and Elite picks this week. Really, I have my money on them. Here’s how we’re getting rich… I have a feeling this is going to be a big week. The places and times I got the lines are listed below.

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I have to take the Patriots here. I know the Browns have put up points, but week after week it seems like those they’ve put up points against don’t have defenses as strong as we all once figured. Well, the Patriots do have a defenses that good, and their offense might be even better. They definitely complement themselves. I hate huge spreads, but the Patriots deserve that big of a cushion. They are that good. I see a 42-14 game in New England, as a down week doesn’t seem like a reality with this team of professionals.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Tough game to call, both the Redskins and Lions have played above what I expected this year. Detroit’s defense played better last week, but they were going up against a pathetic Bears offense, so I don’t know how much can be said about that. The Redskins are coming off a bye, which doesn’t seem to help as much when byes are earlier in the season, but that gives them a slight edge. I guess I like the Lions to ride out their hot-streak, here, because I’m still not convinced that the Washington Redskins are a force on either side of the ball. I do know that the Lions play against the run better than many give them credit for, and that will help against Portis and company. In this tough one, I’ll take the road team and the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-10)
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I’m not sure what to expect out of the Bucs and Colts this week. Will we get a dominant performance out of the Colts? Or will they play like they did against the Texans and Titans? That’s a tough call, and one you have to think about when betting for or against the Colts. The way I see it, Indy has a tough time against lesser opponents, and the Bucs seem to be one of the better teams in the NFC this season. With that in mind, and the fact that John Gruden came into Tampa taking Tony Dungy’s job, you’d have to think that the Colts players try to come out and embarrass the Bucs organization. I’m not sure Tampa, as well as they’ve played this year, is ready for that.

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This game is very tough for me, but I have to believe the San Diego Chargers figure it out sooner rather than later. The Broncos haven’t played that well, even when given week after week of big rushing performances by Travis Henry. San Diego might be able to stop a hobbled Chargers rushing game, and I know Denver can’t do the same to LT. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game came down to a field goal at the end. Elam’s been questionable on all his kicks from my point of view, so I’ll roll the dice on the kid in San Diego, and a big “must win” for the Chargers.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Ravens have looked pretty bad on defense, and even worse at punching in touchdowns on offense. They take their best offensive player out on the goal line (McGahee) and their play calling has been predictable at best. Luckily, they go to San Francisco to play a reeling Niners team that has lost 2 straight. San Francisco will have Trent Dilfer on offense, and you can bet the Ravens’ staff will have the book on him. I like Baltimore to realize what they are by beating the Niners by running the ball, and sending the world at Dilfer.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Bears are getting last years’ lines. The Packers are the better team this year, if the Bears start Grossman or Griese. Talk about questions in Chicago, the downfall of the Bears is getting more attention than the playoff Cubs. That’s a stunner. I like what Brett has done this year, but the Packers defense is what gets me getty. They are young and fly around making plays with the best of them. What really has me going Green Bay’s way is the Bears’ coaching questions each week. Every single week I’ve heard, “We need to get Hester more involved,” or “We need to get Greg Olsen in the game more,” or “We should win games instead of lose them.” Thanks for the ideas, now instead of claiming that you need to do one or the other, what do you think about just doing it? Take the Packers resurgence to continue.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Despite what I think about the Hawks, (they are very good), the fact is that they aren’t a very good road team, and seem to struggle against the AFC (like every NFC team). Also, this isn’t Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offense, this is the Steelers, a unit that is coming off a huge upset at the hands of their former coach. They are going to come out pissed and ready to go. Everything is working against the Hawks in this one, there’s no sense of urgency on their part, they’re away from Seattle, and that whole Super Bowl refereeing stick in the spokes is history. Look for Willie Parker to have a day.

Now that the bye week season is upon us, there are 14 NFL games to choose from. I’m giving my elite package 7 games and showing 7 free picks to my readers that just want the free stuff. Week 4 has loads of tight lines and some big time games, like Monday Night’s big showdown in Cincinnati. Check out my free picks, and if you are interested in my Elite Package, let us know.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

I’m afraid of this game, because I’m not sure the Raiders can stop Ronnie Brown, and I’m almost positive that the Dolphins can’t stop any rushing attack starring a guy under 40 years old with 5 lineman of college experience or better. However, Miami has more riding on this game, with Cam Cameron yet to pull a victory out of his new team. With him done playing games with Ronnie Brown, and Trent Green starting to figure out Marty Booker and Chris Chambers better, I just have a gut feeling that the Dolphins take this game by a touchdown. However, there’s the Daunte Culpepper factor for the Raiders, which really makes me want to steer clear of this game. How bad does he want to beat the Dolphins? If I were a betting man, and I had to pick this game, I would wager with the home team – but as a former player, I know how much hatred can raise your game. My advice, steer clear from this one, but if you must, take the Fins.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Believe it or not, I like the Lions in this one. I don’t know if they are the popular pick or what, but I don’t know why everyone thinks that Brian Griese is going to save the Bears. He may play well in this one, but even with a decent day from Mr. Griese, I don’t think the Bears can stop the Lions’ passing attack enough to keep up with Detroit. Chicago’s secondary isn’t very good anyway, and with all the injuries in Chicago, it’s beginning to look even uglier. No Tommie Harris, no Mike Brown, no Lance Briggs, no Mike Ditka. It’s all getting much clearer now. The question is, if Brian can’t perform against Detroit’s secondary, will Rexxy get another shot? My fantasy team sure hopes so.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Houston Texans to take it to the Falcons. Even with Ahman Green and Andre Johnson on the sidelines, the Texans’ broken receiving corps and second tier running back situation will still be able to take advantage of the Falcons defense. Matt Schaub will be tossing the ball around against his old team, and how bad do you think he wants to win this game? More than a few people know that he was the best quarterback in Atlanta over the last couple of seasons, and he wasn’t smoking weed or killing dogs. Anyway, I’m done with that Vick business, all I know is that Schaub will make the Falcons wish they had kept him, even more-so than they already do.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Steelers have looked unbeatable. They don’t allow points. Their aggressive defense is legit. Willie Parker is a beast. Ben Roethlisberger is back to “doing the right thing” and limiting his mistakes. Santonio Holmes is a nice deep threat and Nate Washington will do a fine job replacing Hines Ward’s absence while Cedrick Wilson will also contribute. I don’t think Kurt Warner will surprise the Steelers like he did the Ravens – so don’t expect that guy to lead a second half comeback. Tomlin’s boys look good – a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS to start the season would look even better.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-11.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 1:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

That’s a lot of points to cover for a team who hasn’t looked like even a lesser version of last years’ offense, but I think it’ll all come around this week for the Chargers. God knows that the Chiefs don’t have the weapons to put up points, so its not like the Chargers will have to score 35 to cover. Three touchdowns and a field goal, and this game will be an absolute wrap. San Diego’s defense has underperformed while their offense hasn’t shown anything Norv Turner-esque. Expect that to change next week when LT steels the show at home against Larry Johnson. Yes, stop Larry and you stop the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos (+11) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5-Dimes)

I just don’t like the Colts to cover big spreads against run-heavy teams. Tennessee gave them trouble, because like usual, they don’t have the bulk to stop defense in short yardage instances. Travis Henry has beasted the Colts before, no doubt about that. Jay Cutler will be able to take advantage of the Colts deep, and Henry and that famous Denver offensive line will be able to keep the ball long enough to cover that 11 point spread. Plus, Denver’s secondary will force the Colts to run early and often, meaning there will be very few quick scores in this one. Long drives means a close game – so I’ll take the 11 points and Denver.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Until the Patriots prove that they aren’t the best team to ever play the game, I will be taking them and any spread Vegas throws at them. They have shown an ability to shut down key offensive players, eliminate entire rushing attacks, and put up points like they’re scrimmaging against air. The Bengals defense can’t stop anyone, and while Carson, Chad, and TJ are as talented as any WR/QB trio in the league, they can’t win this game by themselves. The Patriots have scored 38 in each game this year. They’ve given up no more than 14. They are the team to beat in the NFL.

Week 2 wasn’t a grandiose experience, in fact it just wasn’t a happy place at all. I didn’t bomb out like some cappers did, but I did take a hit with a losing record at 4-5-1. I blame the Eagles, but the better man would blame himself. Ha. Bad play calling, and they didn’t take any chances. Brutal. How about them Browns? Taking down the Bengals. Very interesting. Week 3 will almost certainly feature an upset or two. Pay attention and you might just get paid on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens:

I think that the coaching staff in Arizona is solid enough to cover a 9 point spread against anyone. When you’re talking about the opponent being a Ravens team that has looked defense driven and offensively paralyzed, I can only go one way in a game like this. With Boldin and Fitzgerald, even a 3 touchdown lead isn’t safe, but I don’t think the Ravens will ever get that far out in front. The Cardinals rush defense is much better than the average man has been led to believe, and their secondary isn’t bad either. Matt Leinart isn’t ready to be a star yet, but Edgerrin James will get his 4 to 5 yards per carry to keep the Cardinals in it enough to cover early in the season.

Buffalo Bills (+17) @ New England Patriots:

I’ve thought long and hard about this one, a testament to how good the Patriots really are. But I’ve come to the conclusion that Vegas was sick of the Patriots covering every spread they threw at them, so they decided to throw this wrench in on gamblers. I’m not buying any spread being 17, this isn’t college football, and while the Bills really struggled last week, and I believe the Patriots will have their way with Buffalo, I think 17 is just too much. We’ll see, the Patriots sure are good, but the Bills are an NFL football team, one that has underperformed on offense this far. They’ll be better against this great defense and cover.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6):

I guess I’m still expecting the real Eagles to come out and throw the ball around and dominate a football game. The Lions and their playoff guarantee are coming to town, so I think this is the perfect time for McNabb to snap out of his funk. There is no secondary in football that has more wide open spaces in it than the one from Detroit. Look for McNabb to bust the 300 yard mark in this one as the Eagles finally get a win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5):

I don’t see the Jaguars sticking with the Broncos for long in this one. Dever surprises me from time to time, but I just think this is a very bad match-up for the Jaguars. Jay Cutler will keep the Jaguars young safety group honest with his big arm, and Travis Henry will go for 150 yards against the Jags defensive front. Denver runs too well for the Jaguars. The only think that makes me think the Jags have a chance is their two headed running back monster. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew are two guys that have been poor early in the year, but both are too talented to stay down, and Denver’s front line isn’t the run stopping unit they want to be. Look for Jacksonville to put up and early fight, but fail to take the next step because of their feeble passing attack.

Miami Dolphins @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5):

The Jets are the better team of the two. Trent Green isn’t a good quarterback anymore, and the Dolphins running attack isn’t even close to what Cam Cameron was hoping to install early in his head coaching career. On the other hand, the 0-2 Jets finally get to go against a defense not known as one of the best in the league. No more Baltimore, no more New England. Finally, the Jets will be able to rely heavily on Thomas Jones – and TJ will run with every chance he gets. I expect a big week out of the Jet back.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

The 49ers have enough talent to play with any team in the league. They haven’t been too productive offensively, but Alex Smith will start to play better, maybe even against a tough defense in Pittsburgh. The Niners are by far the best team the Steelers have faced thus far, which always makes for a tough match-up. I think Pittsburgh will win this game in the end, but a field goal difference is much more likely than a 9 point spread.

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5):

I’m not sure that the Rams offense can be productive without solid offensive lineman. Steven Jackson isn’t the type of runner who can create on his own by using quickness or ankle breaking cuts, he needs horses up front to give him a little time to get going. Tampa Bay has played well defensively, and they seem to be improving on offense. Joey Galloway is still a gamebreaker at receiver, and without Tye Hill (out for the season) the Ram secondary is just that much worse. I expect a close game, here. But the Bucs will pull ahead by a 7-10 points in the end.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):

There’s a reason why the Bengals lost to the Browns, remember that. Cincinnati got 6 turnovers from the Ravens and still almost lost that game in the end. If you can’t stop the Browns, I don’t know who you can stop. The Seahawks gave their game away last week, and they are tough at home, so overall you can expect a good game out of them. Plus, Seattle has a very solid defense and an admirable offense. With Cinci showing they can’t stop their own scout team, I imagine there will be some points put up in this game.

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (-4):

I like the Saints to come back from down in the dumps on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played very poorly this season, losing all momentum from a year ago. So now its up to them to get things going again, and from the looks of it, that’s when the Saints are at there best. Vince Young is great, (and a spread killer by the way – so watch out for this one) but I don’t think he’s a good enough passer to fully take advantage of the Saints problematic secondary, and I think New Orleans is good enough up front to limit the Titans rushing attack. I like this game to be over in the 3rd quarter, with New Orleans putting up 30+ on Tennessee.

Week 1 is in the books, and I’m 5-3-1 to start the season. I’m not saying its Championship material, but a winning week is a winning week, and I’ll take it all year long. This is a week full of favorites with big point spreads, most are justified, while some are not. Follow along as I make my Free NFL Picks for Week 2.

Atlanta Falcons (+11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

I hate to do this, but the Jaguars favored history just isn’t very appealing. I expect a 20-13 game here, and I also expect it to go by fast. Over the last 3 seasons, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS when giving 7.5 or more points. There only win came last year against Tennessee on the 5th of November. The Falcons looked terrible in Week 1, but I have a feeling they’ll be better if they give more carries to Jerious Norwood. Joey Harrington can have his good games, and since Jacksonville will do anything in their power to stop the Falcons running attack, I think Joey could have a solid day in Jacksonville. This game is a bit of a toss up with, but with a spread as high as 10, I have to take the Falcons, if only because neither offense has shown me an ability to cover big spreads. This is the first game in the last 3 seasons that the Falcons are getting more than 7 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5):

I’m not sure if the Steelers are as good as they played last week, and I’m positive that the Bills offense will be better than they were last week, but even with those two things coming together, I just don’t see this game being closer than 10 points. I know its not cool to take 10 point favorites like the Steelers, but defensively, they looked special last week in Cleveland. I know the Phoenix Suns’ defense would look good against the Browns, but the Steelers’ defense has that swagger back. Big Ben should find plenty of room to throw the ball in Buffalo’s secondary. Willie Parker will have upwards of 150 yards, and the Steelers should win by 2 touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers (+1) @ New York Giants:

The Packers haven’t been very good over the past 3 seasons, but on the road they show heart. Not only are they 14-9-2 ATS over the last 3 years, but they are 12-13 SU on the road as well. The Giants’ defense isn’t going to shut down the Packers’ offense like the Eagles did, and if Eli Manning doesn’t play, the Giant don’t even stand a chance against one of the best young defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have rebuilt their team around a talented defense, and they will give the Giants trouble, even if Manning shows up. It will be interesting, but after playing 2 quality NFC East opponents in the first 2 weeks of the season, I expect the Pack to be 2-0.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5):

The Panthers are 11-14 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, and they’ve never won more than 5 games at home during that time span. They aren’t a home team hero, that’s for sure. The Panthers are only 8-6 ATS as a 6+ point favorite over the last 3 seasons, but they’ve won 9 of their last 10 games favored by 6 or more, and are 8-2 ATS over that time. I think the Texans are much better this season, but also think they aren’t as good as their 20-3 score against the Chiefs showed last week. Carolina has a more cohesive unit, and Houston will have to show a lot more to shut down the Panthers. I rarely take the Panthers as a favorite, and they haven’t showed much strength at home, but I have a feeling they’ll win by at least a touchdown against the Texans this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Tennessee Titans:

Vince Young skipped his way to 10-2-2 ATS as a starter in this league, which makes him a bettors best friend. Unless you’re me, and you keep betting against the young star from Texas. I’m not taking the Colts because their defense was so dominant last week against New Orleans, but because their offense is too much for the Titans. Peyton knows what he has to do on a weekly basis to win, and this week he’ll do just that. The Titans beat the Colts late last season, and easily covered the spread in their first meeting, losing a nail-biter, 14-13 in Tennessee. Last season, the Colts were only 4-6-1 ATS when favored by 7 or more points. Regardless of all the numbers telling me to go a different direction, I think this game won’t be close. The Colts will do a better job against the Titans running attack than the Jaguars did, and thus Vince will have to beat them through the air. Jacksonville’s lack of a passing game was the main reason they couldn’t put up points on Tennessee last week. The Colts won’t have that problem.

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (-3):

This is a very tough game for me, but I have to go with the Rams, if only because they have a guy named Steven Jackson trying to redeem himself after a pathetic Week 1 performance where he literally fumbled the game away. The Rams were already without Todd Steussie, and now Orlando Pace is out for the season, but the 49ers gave up rushing yards by the bundles to Arizona in Week 1. Steven Jackson’s opening Week 1 disappointment could continue as he’ll have a tough time getting anywhere without blockers paving the way, but if the 49ers put 8 in the box, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marc Bulger will surely make them pay. San Francisco was lucky to get a win in Week 1, while the Rams killed themselves. Each team will be 1-1 after Week 2, in familiar territory, chasing the Seahawks and ahead of the Cardinals.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3):

I know the Vikings shut down the Falcons in Week 1, but remember, Minnesota’s defense score more points than their offense. Minnesota won’t get that lucky ever week, as I can’t imagine they return two interceptions for touchdowns ever again this season. The way I see it, Atlanta didn’t have passing attack that could attack the Vikings defense where they are the most vulnerable, their secondary. Detroit has a foursome of wide receivers who can get open and catch the ball with the best of them. Furrey, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and Shaun McDonald all contributed last week against a solid secondary in Oakland. The Lions have confidence going in to Week 2, something the Vikings offense doesn’t have. Detroit will put 8 and 9 in the box, making Tarvaris Jackson beat them through the air. He won’t, Detroit will win.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears (-12):

Yes, the Chiefs are that bad. Chicago looked brutal offensively in Week 1. They’ll be better, even against a pretty solid Chief defense. If the Bears can score two touchdowns in this game, they’ll cover with ease. I want to call a shutout here, but they are so rare in the NFL. Oh, what the hell, Chicago shuts the Chiefs out. Also, I think Rex throws two touchdowns for the Bears. I don’t think Cedric Benson will have a big day, but Devin Hester will do something Devin Hesterish from the receiver position, and Chicago wins easily to get their first W of the year.

N.Y. Jets (+12) @ Baltimore Ravens:

I like the Ravens to win this one, but their offensive game plan and execution last week weren’t enough to gain them 12 points against New York, even if they do have to rest Chad Pennington. You forget, many people would say that Kellen Clemens can stretch a defense much more than Chad. I think Pennington is better right now, but Baltimore could jump short routes against him, but with Clemens I’m not so sure. He’ll beat you deep. I expect a better performance out of the Jets running game, even against feared Baltimore. The Ravens might have to limit Steve McNair as well – this game should be close, with injuries and backups playing a big roll. I’ll take that huge point total in this one.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5):

I don’t know about 7 point spreads. 6.5, I don’t mind, but 7, ugh, pushes are so common. The reason I’m taking the Eagles in this divisional rivalry game is mainly because they were so pathetic last week in Green Bay. See, the Eagles are a very good football team, and the only thing I was worried about was if their defense would get back to dominance. Well, they made the Packers’ offense look like Duke’s football team, and if it weren’t for 3 fluke muffed punts, they would have easily won Sunday’s game. They have to be pissed, and I’ll take a pissed off Eagle team any day of the week. The 7 point spread shouldn’t be too tough to get early, but holding onto it late could be difficult. I have to take the Eagles in this one.

The NFL has begun! Bring it! I’m going for 4 winning season’s in a row. If you want my picks for my Top 7 games, you’ll have to fork over a little cash this season, but I’m still good for the rest of the games, still dealing out 9 Free Picks in Week 1. Let the games begin!

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-6):
9/6/2007 8:30pm EST

This game is a tough one, but I have to go with the Colts because history and early season dominance predicts a big win to start off the season. The Colts are 22-15-2 ATS in domes over the past 4 seasons. They also have a 33-7 record over that time span. The Colts also win games when they’re the favorite. You can all but put it on the board when the Colts are favored, as they’ve won more than 80% of those games. The Saints are coming off an impressive season, and while the Colts lost some key components this off-season, they’ll be ready on Thursday.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings:
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

What a boring game to start the season, so I’m taking the points, as little and insignificant as they may be. The Falcons are strictly a running team while the Vikings have a dominant running defense. The Falcons have a talented young defense who should play very well against a stagnant Viking offense that just doesn’t look like a touchdown producer this season. Joey Harrington, in my opinion, is the better quarterback option for Week 1. Atlanta’s team speed on defense should keep Tarvaris Jackson locked down pretty well, and the Vikings will start the season with a home loss.

Carolina Panthers (+1) @ St. Louis Rams:
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

I’ve been a huge fan of the Panthers and their talent over the last few seasons, and I know its not good to base much on the pre-season, but they played poorly during the exhibition. However, I have to stick to my guns early on, despite pre-season woes. The Rams should be improved this year, but the Panthers are better away from Carolina as they are at home. Over the last 4 seasons, they are 24-15-1 ATS on the road, and have 24 wins overall. So, despite the Rams offensive strengths, and a defense that should help them make a push at the Seahawks in the NFC West, I’m sticking to one of my 2007 favorites, the Carolina Panthers.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

Vegas has to see what I see in Kansas City. Larry Johnson is back, which gives the Texans defense something to think about, but with all the quarterback turmoil, HBO specials, camp injuries, and overall age of this declining Chiefs team, I think the young and improved Texans will easily win their first game of the year. Damon Huard is solid, but he’s not 100%, and he’ll need to be before the Chiefs start winning games. Houston will be much better this year, even if the W/L record doesn’t translate. Schaub will be 1-0 as the starter in Houston after the first week.

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

Neither of these teams does much to excite me, except I really like Jason Campbell and the two headed running back monster in Washington (Yes I’m THE guy who still thinks Clinton Portis is a Top 5 talent). Campbell ran Al Saunders’ offense well in the last 3 games of the season, and I think he has just as much promise as any of the young quarterbacks in the league. He has the IT you need to win football games. I like Ronnie Brown, don’t like Trent Green and his 45 yard arm, and think the Dolphins front 7 is legit, but I’m not down with Cam Cameron’s games he’s playing in Miami already. Doesn’t he know that crap doesn’t go well with veteran clubs? So, with Washington at home, and Campbell making the plays the Redskins need to win, I think they just sneak by Miami’s front 7 on way to an opening day victory.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+7):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

I love the Patriots to finish the year on fire in 2007, but despite their bulk of off-season acquisitions, and their status as a huge favorite to win the Super Bowl, I think their early injuries will give the Jets a big advantage and should make this a close game. Thus, I’ll go against the ATS dominators. I don’t think the Jets are the better team here, and the Pats will probably sneak out a 3 point win with a late field goal or something, but Eric Mangini is a very good coach that knows Bill Belichick’s system very well – so I’ll take the Jets getting a touchdown. Thomas Jones is the ball carrier the Jets needed to get their consistency up, and I think Chad Pennington will be good despite a questionable pre-season. Asante Samuel is just getting back and Richard Seymour is out for the first 6 games. Without Seymour, the Pats are a much different team up front. This will be a hell of a game, but the underdogs might just surprise a few people at home.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST

Its hard to bet against Vince Young, I mean the kid has gone 9-2-2 ATS in his only 11 games in the NFL, as he led his team of youthful Titans to the best ATS 13 game stretch of the season. But, gone is Travis Henry and suspended is Pacman Jones, and both had just as much, if not more to do with keeping the Titans in football games last season. Jones had more than a couple late game heroics that sent his team to victory, while Henry was the constant rushing force the Titans needed to win football games. On the other hand, the Jags defense is explosive up front, and while they’ve lost their starting safeties, their young guys will make more than enough plays to give them Game 1. David Garrard is who the Jags wanted, and they get their new unquestioned starter to begin his legacy against a porous Titans defense in Week 1. Vince looked solid after his first pre-season problem, but I have a feeling he’ll struggle this season. It starts in Jacksonville. Take the Jags.

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6):
9/9/2007 4:15pm EST

This game is another tough one, as both the Bears and Chargers are poised for double digit wins – but then again, both have plenty of questions heading into 2007. Norv Turner is the new head coach in San Diego, a year after Marty Schottenheimer was fired after a 14-2 regular season record. Wade Phillips is gone to Dallas and Cam Cameron is playing games with his players in Miami – those are the 3 biggest coaching reasons why the Chargers were one of the best teams in football over the last 3 seasons. Well, those coaches are gone. Chicago comes in with Rex whining about how Chicago fans are always too negative. C’mon, guy. Thomas Jones, the biggest sure thing in Chicago’s offense is now playing for the Jets, and Ron Rivera (Chicago’s defensive guru) is now a linebackers coach in Chicago. You want questions, this game has plenty. I like the Chargers talent more, and they’re probably the better team – so I’ll take them at home with LT doing his damage against a Bears run defense that isn’t as great as everyone thinks it is. Tough call, but I’ll take the Chargers by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6):
9/9/2007 4:15pm EST

Everyone is giving up on the Hawks. I watched a recent show that claimed, at best, the Hawks finish with 9 wins. Give me a break. I also heard that the Hawks lost too much from last year’s team. Did those guys see the Hawks off-season moves? Three safeties are new to this squad that are a better fit in Seattle’s D than anyone of the guys they had last season. Patrick Kerney is the pass rusher they always wanted Grant Wistrom to be, and Marcus Trufant is back. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and its not like Jackson’s loss kills Seattle, they’ve been playing without him for half of the last 2 seasons. The Bucs are the Bucs, and lately, that’s not a good thing to be. They are desperate to get younger at defense, but Gaines Adams isn’t even a starter yet, and Simeon Rice was let go. It’ll be interesting to see if Cadillac Williams comes back to have a solid season in his 3rd try, but I don’t see much in terms of competition between these two clubs. Take the Hawks at home, they always win in Seattle.
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