Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 10

I only took 13 games because there was no line out for the Colts/Steelers game headed into the weekend. But, I still had 10 wins as a goal, and sure enough, I stomped the yard in Week 10, busting out double digit wins and losing just 3 contests. (One absolute robbery when the Broncos but up Black Jack in the 4th quarter on Thursday Night). Anyway, 10 wins folks, this is how the hammer hit nails.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): I took 21 points on the chin in the 4th quarter, and the Browns were still driving to push the spread. I’m sorry folks, I’ll take this loss, but I will credit one hell of a bad beat on Thursday Night. I picked this one on the spot, and I would take the Browns -3 at home against the Broncos and win 80% of the time. This just happened to be one of those 20%. Pooey nuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: (Winner) My analysis was on point again in this one – go back to my Free Picks article if you don’t believe me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: (Winner) The Titans struggled a bit in this one, and Rex Grossman (despite boos and bad press) played pretty well. However, it wasn’t enough, and watching this game I never was too worried. The Titans cover and still have zero losses this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): (Winner) “I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.” This analysis was good enough to relive. I win again!!!

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: (Winner) I wasn’t too fond of this game, but it looks like I had the right idea. Baltimore ran well and stuffed the Texans rushing attack. Houston didn’t come to win this game, and win they did not.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): (Winner) I win again!!! This one went like I thought it would, but I expected a little more from the Saints defense. What a transformation in Atlanta, huh?

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): (Winner) You bet. Rams can’t play ball when the run is stuffed. Consider it stuffed. Thomas Jones took advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the league. I win again!

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): (Loss) The Hawks came to play, and Miami wasn’t in a hurry in this one. I lost, but it was one of few my kind hearted readers – one of few.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Winner) This game didn’t go like I expected, but Adrian Peterson did crush Green Bay’s front 7, and 8 for that matter – and got the Vikings a 1 point win. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all night, and those two safeties really came back to hurt. But who do the Vikings really get to thank for this win? Try the man calling plays in Green Bay. With a 55 yard field goal in sight and about 1 minute and 10 seconds left on the clock, the Packers run 2 run plays that get about 3 yards – leaving a good kicker a 51 yard shot at the win. Do the Packers know that when a field goal gets over 48 yards the percentage of good kicks drops in half? Idiots. They had plenty of time to make the field goal easier, and Mason just pushes it. It was good from 48, I’m telling you. Anyway – hahaha – I win, you lose for being stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Winner) Despite trying as hard as he could to get the Raiders to cover, Jake Delhomme wasn’t allowed to play defense – thank God!!! The Panthers covered behind a couple nice runs by DeAngelo Williams and some good defense against a terrible offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once.” I must say, in a week where favorites did the dirty work, I had this one right on the nail folks.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Winner) You bet – just about how I expected it to go, but the Eagles were better than I thought. Still, their inability to run the ball against good defenses might be the end of them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): (Loss) Well, the 49ers were 2 yards away from ending my latest survivor pool run – luckily I pulled it out. Unluckily, so did all those people that took the Chargers. Regardless, this one was too close for me to cover, ending my Week 10 wins at 10 – Eleven Ws in Week 11 anyone?

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 10

We finally get into the double digits, and if you know my game, this is where I start making up for any early season blunders. The next 6 weeks are the most important for NFL teams and for my overall capping numbers alike. To get a quick start, I seem to be walking the underdog to the park this Sunday, this is how my free picks are looking in Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans:
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: Belmont)

What can I say? I like the Jaguars’ chances to even their season series with the Titans in Tennessee. Vince hasn’t played well all season long, and I know he won’t be able to take advantage of the Jags’ secondary like New Orleans did last week. LenDale White is hurting, and Chris Brown’s ankle is sub-par right now. I think David Garrard will start and bring back some confidence with this offensive unit, just enough to win or play within a field goal of the Titans.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: SBG Global)

From the sound of it, the Broncos are ready to play up to their potential. Denver has been down for most of the year, despite one game against the Steelers, and they very well could have lost that game. Anyhow, Denver has the talent to compete with the best, and I think they’ll put the Chiefs away with relative ease at Sunday’s game in Kansas City. However, even if I’m wrong about the Broncos, I think 4 points is too many, and like many Bronco games, this should at least come down to a field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

Honestly, I don’t think the Rams will need half this many points, but I’ll take all 13 and a half of them from 5Dimes. I think the Rams could pull the biggest upset of the week by finally notching their first win against a Saints’ team that comes in with way too much hype for what they’ve accomplished thus far. What have they done? After 4 straight losses, they have a good 1st half against one of the more schizophrenic teams in the NFL (Seattle) and hold on to beat them by 11. Then they sneak by Atlanta (22-16) and probably would have lost if Leftwich hadn’t been hurt (he was torching the Saints’ secondary, believe it or not) and then they beat a terrible San Francisco team in Alex Smith’s first game since his injury, and the game was very close in Jacksonville last week (despite the 41-24 score), and Quinn Gray was calling plays for the Jaguars. Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to lose their survivor pools by taking the Saints in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 7:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Now that everyone thinks the Eagles are completely lost without a chance of every returning or becoming part of any sort of playoff picture, I think they’ll play a lot better. Regardless of what Andy Reid thinks, his problems have effected the team, and questions surrounding Donovan McNabb have also been swirling. All those things are pretty meaningless now that everyone and their mother thinks the Eagles are done. Well, defensively, they are still good enough to slow the Redskins rushing attack, and Washington has been hurting at corner since Carlos Rogers went down for the season. McNabb and his average receiving corps will do fine under those circumstances, and the most talented running back in the NFC East will show his true colors again on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I personally hate gambling on either of these teams, but with the way the Ravens looked offensively and on the corners last Monday Night, I can’t imagine them beating anyone right now. The Bengals should get Chris Henry back, if this whole parking attendant thing doesn’t get him booted from the league, and he’ll be a much needed 3rd playmaker for that offense. Also, Kenny Watson should be back, and he should do alright catching the ball out of the Bengals’ backfield. Also, Chad Johnson’s hit may have been just what he needed to screw his head on straight, and start using his insane ability

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Another game the public loves, and while I hate it, I can’t see the Raiders beating the Bears, not in Oakland, or L.A., or any other place this side of Al Davis’s back yard. Oakland won’t be able to stop the Bears’ pathetic rushing attack, and thus the entire field will be opened up for Brian Griese and the hapless Bears. It sure is a popular pick, but Chicago’s not going to come into Oakland with the “We are the best in the NFC” attitude that they went in to Arizona with last season, and I don’t think they’ll be caught off guard. Tommie Harris is finally close to 100%, and I think he’ll destroy anything and everything the Raiders try to do offensively. I think this will be a blowout, but I’m not throwing too many units down on this, if only because the books totals (75% Bears) send a little fright down my direction – but you shouldn’t ever let that stop you – the book loses too, don’t forget that. Fading the public will only get you around 50% on the season.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10):
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I don’t think too much of this game, and once again, I wouldn’t bet on it if I didn’t take every single NFL game every week. That’s the rule, and thus I’ll take the home team Seahawks. What I do like about this game is the OVER (39.5) which I will definitely be taking. With Seattle using the air attack more often, and Frank Gore set to run against the team he always dominates, I think this game should reach the 50 point total mark. I know the 49ers haven’t done much scoring, but Seattle has a special way of allowing points. I’m taking the Hawks -10, because Alex Smith and the rest of the 49ers make too many mistakes. Sacks, fumbles, and interceptions should just barely get this game over 10.

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 10

This Week’s Top Team: 76 points? Gross. This is how it went down.QB: Peyton Manning vs. San Diego: Peyton had 6 picks, and still managed 15 fantasy points. This was one of the worst games of his career – so I’ll take the 15 when I can get em.

RB: Willis McGahee vs. Bengals: Willis didn’t do much worth talking about. He did manage a late score and thus went for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, losing a must win game in Baltimore. They are done, I got 13 points out of Willis.

RB: Larry Johnson vs. Denver: OUCH! When I originally posted this, I didn’t know LJ was out for the week. Took a big hit here, obviously.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Detroit: As I said, the Lions had one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Larry torched the Lions for 74 yards and two touchdowns – good for 19 points.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. San Diego: Reggie had 140 yards and a touchdown, good for 20 points. Nice work.

TE: Jason Witten vs. New York Giants: Witten had 2 catches for 12 yards – gross – 1 fantasy point.

K: Josh Brown vs. San Francisco: Josh had another bad day for my kickers, managing 5 fantasy points after hitting 3 xps, making one field goal, and missing another one.

D: Titans vs. Jacksonville: 3 fantasy points killed me out of the Titans. Fred Taylor (and more effectively) Maurice Jones Drew had big games against the Titans supposed Top Flight run defense. Not today, folks.


JP Losman: Losman through for an amazing 4 fantasy points. I’d let you know his real numbers, except seeing them on the screen is bound to blur your vision. It was bad, trust me.

Greg Jennings: Greg fell just short of a touchdown on a long pass play, but he did collect 6 fantasy points. I expected a lot more from him in a blowout of the Vikings, but

Santonio Holmes: 53 receiving yards for Santonio – it seemed like Big Ben was keeping his eyes on Hines Ward a little more often this Sunday, but Holmes will remain a big play threat in this offense.

Greg Olsen: 0 catches against the Raiders – now that’s a terrible day – hopefully he’ll bounce back next week.

Chicago: 20 fantasy points for the Bears – not that it was tough work, they had to shut down the Raiders’ pathetic offense. They did that – what do they want? A cookie?

LUCKY’S Week 10 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Phillip Rivers: -2… That wasn’t his golf score, so yes, he had one of the worst days of his career – and he’s had some bad days this season. Phillip needs to throw the ball harder.

Travis Henry: Didn’t play – so that’s a win right?

Ryan Grant: I missed this one. Grant had the best running day against the Vikings in ages, absolutely trumping Adrian Peterson, and making a name for himself as quite possibly a very good starter in Green Bay.

Alex Smith: 4 fantasy points for disappointing Smith – he underthrew a sure deep touchdown to Darrell Jackson on the team’s first offensive play, and after that it was all down hill. He didn’t take any chances, though, and thus threw no interceptions – that’s one bonus.

Darrell Jackson: Jackson had a chance to get open deep, but Alex Smith underthrew him and the ball ended up getting knocked down by the Hawks. That was it for DJack – he didn’t do anything worth mentioning. 26 yards? 2 fantasy points? That’s forgettable.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 10

This Week’s Top Team: Looking for 140+ points, as tough as that is to get, I think this team can put in work.

QB: Peyton Manning vs. San Diego: The Colts will be ready to bounce back against an up and down Chargers secondary. I’m sure the Chargers will come to play a little pissed off in this one, but Peyton knows how to beat any defense, and I’m positive he’ll put about 20+ on Sunday.

RB: Willis McGahee vs. Bengals: Well, Willis is very good and the Bungles are, well, the Bungles. I think Mr. McGahee will have his best fantasy day of the season.

RB: Larry Johnson vs. Denver: I like Grandma-ma’s chances to do up the Broncos. Denver seems to play like dump in KC, and that team is in the dumps right now. That’s a bad combo when a tough-nosed Chief team is ready to roll. LJ will get a couple scores in this one.

WR: Lee Evans vs. Cincinnati: I know Evans is up and down at best, but I think he’ll have yet another huge day against the Dolphins on Sunday. The only thing a bye week will do for Miami is make the team realize they really don’t have a shot at winning a game this season.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. San Diego: I don’t think Reggie will drop another pass as long as the season plays out. He dropped a big one against the Patriots, and that gave New England the life they needed to come back. He’ll come back with a vengeance against the Chargers and have another Reggie type day.

TE: Jason Witten vs. New York Giants: Witten doesn’t care if you knock his helmet off – you’ve got to like that about a big sure-handed tight end. Also, I think the Cowboys are going to tear the Giants’ “good” defense a new one on Sunday.

K: Josh Brown vs. San Francisco: The Niners are bad, and the Hawks can’t seem to get their running game going, that spells a high scoring kicking game where I’m from. Plus, Josh got me out of the kicker dumps, so I may or may not ride him the rest of the season.

D: Titans vs. Jacksonville: Quinn Gray may get a little better this wee, he’s been better and better each week as the starter, but I have a feeling the Titans will shut down the Jaguar rushing attack, and that will hurt Jacksonville’s chance to score something fierce.


JP Losman: I know nobody likes to do it, but the kid from Buffalo could put up some points on Sunday against the Dolphins. He has Lee Evans as a weapon, and the Dolphins haven’t really stopped anyone.

Earnest Graham: It took him all of 34 carries, but the young back went for 124 yards and a touchdown on the ground in a big Bucs win over the Cardinals. He also grabbed a couple passes for 13 yards. Graham’s 19 points give me at least a B+.

Kevin Jones: Jones didn’t get too many looks after the Lions started killing the Broncos, he only had 72 yards on 17 carries. But he did alright. Anyway, I’ll take a D+ here, for blowout’s sake.

Rudi Johnson: 9 rushes for 11 yards – yikes – the Bengals are now officially the BUNGLES again… F stands for Fantasy Failure on this one.

Greg Jennings: This guy is a big play receiver for Brett, and I don’t think the Packers have a chance to run against the Vikings. That means lots of throws – Jennings will reel in more than a handful.

Santonio Holmes: If the Hawks’ receivers can get wide open and have Hasselbeck throw for 300+ yards against the Browns, then Holmes will definitely get open this Sunday. I like the young Steeler a lot this week.

Greg Olsen: Greg should be able to tear up the Oakland Raider’s secondary enough for some big plays down field. 2 big plays is a Top 5 day in the TE world…

Chicago: They haven’t been all that good all season long, that will turn around on Sunday against the Raiders. Thank God for a well scheduled game coming off a bye week.

LUCKY’S Week 10 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Phillip Rivers: If he sucks against the slow secondary in Minnesota, imagine what the infinitely fast secondary in Indy will do to this young signal caller. He needs the throw the ball way harder if he wants to complete anything.

Travis Henry: Travis will find it tough sledding against a very good and way underrated front 7 in Kansas City. Plus, the Broncos are bad.

Ryan Grant: He had one huge day, then a so-so day against the Chiefs – he just has a terrible match-up against the Packers this week, I’d stash him on the bench for the rest of the season, just don’t play him against Minnesota.

Alex Smith: This guy plays a decent Hawks defense, and he has been no short of brutal. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs this season.

Darrell Jackson: The Hawks know this guy very well. They know he wasn’t worth much more than a 4th round pick, and he still hasn’t done dick for his new team. I don’t think that will change on Monday Night Football this week against his old ball club.

Week 10 College Football Picks Review: 2007

10 looks good when you consider I only lost one game. However, when the realization comes that I only won two contests, the real story starts to come out. Two pushes and a couple wins isn’t all that bad, but ties sure can be frustrating. Honestly, I’ll take the ties, it’s the brutal beat I had on the Badger/Buckeye game that has me still turning. Here’s my NCAA Football Review for Week 10…

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 10

Wisconsin Badgers (+16) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

This game was a joke…. Up 17-10 midway through the 3rd quarter – tied at 17 with 10 minutes to go in the 4th – And Wisconsin goes for a fake punt on their own 20 yard line, doesn’t get it, and then loses by just enough to make me a loser… That’s one of the worst beats I’ve had all season long.

Ball State Cardinals @ Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Indiana absolutely annihilated the Cardinals in the 2nd half of this game. This win was as easy as they get.

Purdue Boilermakers (+7) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: push
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The refs were absolutely brutal in this game. A kid runs out of bounds, and the referee keeps the clock running. That cost Purdue about 45 seconds, maybe even more, and they didn’t have enough time to do anything but throw up a hail mary in the last few seconds. I wasn’t guaranteed a win or anything, but at least I had a chance if Zebra doesn’t blow it for me. Bummer.

Navy Midshipmen (+3.5) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: win
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

OT – just that right there got me excited. Haha – how far the Irish have fallen, overtime game against Navy – haha. Finally, after more than 40 yeas, the Irish have fallen to the Midshipmen from Navy, and I was on this one. I love it. A 3 OT thriller in which the Irish got a gift pass interference call on their first two point conversion, but fell short from the 1 and a half yard line to lose. This was one hell of a game.

Maryland Terrapins (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels: push
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: BodogLife)

It wasn’t quite what I expected, but the 3 poitns ended up saving my tail. The Tar Heels couldn’t score late, and the Terps chipped away field goal after field goal, finishing a 3 pointer short of overtime. 2 wins, 2 pushes, and a single loss – well, it could have been worse.

2006 Fantasy Football Review – Week 10

This Week’s Top Team: 104 points… Not my best week! Week 11 will be better, guaranteed!

QB: Donovan McNabb: Donovan didn’t get the totals I was looking for, but his 15 fantasy points were decent enough I guess.

RB: Larry Johnson: LJ just didn’t get enough touches, 18 carries, 2 receptions, for the Chiefs to win, and for him to compete with LT for this weeks top RB. LJ still had a TD and nearly 90 total yards for 14 fantasy points.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson: LT showed the Bengals how the legs of one man can move mountains. LT busted out for 4 touchdowns, 104 yards, and 54 yards receiving. Championship! LT was the top fantasy performer in Week 10. 39 points.

WR: Terrell Owens: To had 96 yards and a touchdown, I like what I see from this guy, he seems to be rolling with Romo quite nicely. 15 points.

WR: Anquan Boldin: Even with Fitz back in the playbook, Boldin had another ho hum game, collecting 5 fantasy points, and that’s it.

TE: Desmond Clark: Clark had 1 catch for only 2 yards, but when that catch is a touchdown, that means Clark was in the Top 10 for TE’s in week 10. 6 points. Wow this is a week position.

K: Neil Rackers: One field goal and one extra point. Thanks for stepping up Neil… My god. 4 whole points. I should have stuck with Wilkins, he had 10.

D: Ravens: The Ravens had only 6 points, while the Bears busted out for 22 big ones against the Giants. Whoops!


Tony Romo: ToRo had 24 points, good for 7th overall, not a bad job for a guy who wasn’t even picked in fantasy football drafts all over the globe. A

David Garrard: David broke me down, and flat out got screwed in the stat sheet because of his teammates. At least 2 of his picks were easy catches that bounced off his teammates’ hands and turned into picks. But David’s fantasy score gave me an F!

Steven Jackson: Steven Jackson finished 4th in this weeks rankings, right behind LT, Fast Willie Parker, and Frank Gore, but he almost single handily won the game for his Rams, carrying 100 guys into the end zone for the go ahead score. They lost via a Josh Brown field goal, but SteJack doesn’t play defense, tough to blame him. 19 fantasy points gave me an A here.

Frank Gore: As mentioned earlier, Frank Gore was 3rd overall, rolling for 159 yards and a score on route to 22 fantasy points. A

Tim Carter: I don’t think this panned out. Carter didn’t make the top 60, so I won’t even look any farther. I’ll just take the F.

Lee Evans: Lee only had 5 catches for 70 yards, big fat average. C

Jason Witten: Witten posted 5 catches for 58 yards and a spot in the top 10 this week with 5 points. B

Jaguars DST: The Jags defense had only 9 fantasy points, which puts them in the lower half of the league. However, even though 9 wasn’t in the bottom 10, I’m still taking an F because they lost to the damn Texans.


Brett Favre: Brett blew up the Vikes, making me look like a dumby for putting one of the toughest signal callers of all time in my wussies section. Never happen again Mr. Favre.

Edgerrin James: Edge had 15 carries for 68 yards, his most productive yards per carry average this season. Gross. He still fumbled, how’s 5 fantasy points for your number one pick?

Plaxico Burress: 4 points for Plax…. Nice job killer. Way to let them Bears know how bad they are!

Randy Moss: Randy against Champ. Randy 1 catch for 8 yards, the Champ = Last Laugh. Here’s laughing at you Mosster Mash.

Free Football Picks 06-07 Week 10

It was nice to get in the green last week, in a must win week for Good ol’ Lucky Lester. In-between sweating out a couple big wins, eating fresh salsa, and drinking an assortment of frosty cold beverages, I was picking Week 10’s games. With bye weeks out the window, this is the time to get back on track with a huge week right off the bat. How will I manage? Like this…TOP 5 Bets

Jacksonville over Houston
Chicago over New York Giants
Philadelphia over Washington
Jets over Patriots
Tampa Bay over Carolina

Baltimore (-7) at Tennessee: The Ravens have been pretty good on the road all season long, 3-1 with two 13+ point wins, and they’ve been playing well lately with back to back wins over New Orleans and Cincinnati. Tennessee has played decent at home, a close loss to the Jets and a win over Houston, and they had two wins in a row going in to Week 9. But they promptly came back to reality last week in Jacksonville. Baltimore has that kind of defense (like Jax) so I don’t see a rookie, Vince Young, doing to well against the Ravens. Tennessee won’t be able to run, so expect some tough mistakes from Vince.

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-11.5): I know Buffalo just won a game 24-10, but Green Bay doesn’t count, and this week they’ll have to stop Peyton Manning, who is by far the best regular season quarterback in the game. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant taking them under a 14 point spread against a Colts team that looked very good on defense last week against the Patriots. Without Willis McGahee (broken rib) running the ball, Buffalo doesn’t stand a chance.

Chicago (+3) at N.Y. Giants: Chicago has played very well the week after a bad game all season long…. After close Minnesota win, killed Seattle… After barely beating Arizona, killed San Francisco, and this week, after getting rocked by… Miami, the Bears will come back and play a very good game against a Giants squad without their two best pass rushers, and maybe even Plaxico Burress. Eli Manning will struggle in this game, in the limelight, as he often does. Even at home, New York will make too many mistakes to win this contest.

Cleveland at Atlanta (-7): The Falcons sure struggled last week against the Lions. Detroit threw all over Atlanta, which was nice, because DeAngelo Hall turned quiet in a hurry, always nice. However this week, Atlanta will take out their frustrations on a rather slow Cleveland defense. Vick, Dunn, Norwood, and Ashlie Lelie are all a couple steps ahead of the Brownies, so expect an early lead to get bigger throughout. I like Braylon Edwards, but he doesn’t have Roy Williams’ speed, so Hall shouldn’t have as much trouble. Darn.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-5): I guess I just don’t see Minnesota playing as terribly as they’ve played over the last few weeks. They aren’t a bad football team, and especially defensively, they’re strong. The play well in a gross Metro Dome, while Brett and the Packers are often terrible in Domes. The Packers haven’t played well, aren’t very good, and are even worse when matched up against a stout run defense. That, the Vikings have.

Houston at Jacksonville (-10.5): Jacksonville is more consistent eith David Garrard at quarterback, making wins against lesser teams easy for the Jaguars. Without a pure passer in there, they do what they should have been doing all along, and rely on the ground game. Fred Taylor still has plenty of yards left in him, and Maurice Drew has been one of the most promising young backs in football. With a couple big plays through the air, Jacksonville will roll at home against Houston.

Kansas City (E) at Miami: Kansas City has been flawless in the air, and naturally, as dominant as ever on the ground. Larry Johnson has his step back after a slow start, and he’ll be able to use that step to smash a fragile Dolphins’ defense. That defense won’t be as hard on Huard as they were on Grossman, because Damon isn’t the mistake prone gun slinger that Rexxy is. Kansas City has really improved defensively under Herman Edwards, something they’ll use to take their second road game in a row.

New Orleans +4 at Pittsburgh: The Saints shouldn’t be getting 4 points against a Steeler team that can’t buy a win. I’ve lost my fair share of games betting against Drew Brees. I’ve lost plenty this year, and in his first big year with the Chargers, I poured plenty of green into the bucket watching him prove himself week in and week out. Even though Pitt is tough at home, I have to go with Brees and his boys. With New Orleans getting all the right bounces, and the Steelers imploding to a point where they are nearly eliminated from playoff contention half way through the season, my money is on those resilient New Orleans boys.

N.Y. Jets (+12) at New England: 12 points is just too many for me. I know New England is tough at home, and I’m sure they’ll come back strong after getting dumped last week in Foxboro by the Colts, but 12 is still too many. The Jets don’t have a strong defense, and their offense hasn’t been great lately, but they’re coming off a bye, which in my book, helps their cause. The Jets will find ways to get their playmakers, Laveraneus Coles and Leon Washington, the ball, and they’ll put up a tough fight in New England.

San Diego at Cincinnati (+1.5): The Bengals have had a tough go of it lately, in the clubhouse and on the football field. With the team looking happy go lucky this week, I’m going with the stunner, a San Diego loss here. It almost seems unfair, betting against LT when he’s playing against any defense besides the Bears, but I have a feeling this week won’t be as grand for Mr. Tomlinson. The Bengals’ defense is talented, and finally, this week, they’ll show their true colors. With Shawn Merriman out, the Charger pass rush will be less of a factor, giving Palmer just that much longer to complete the pass. Take the home team in this powerful showdown.

San Francisco at Detroit (-5.5): The Lions will have too much offense for the 49ers. Both defenses are less than stellar, or just downright giving on Sundays, but San Francisco can’t put up points like the Lions. Wow. Think about that statement. A couple years, maybe 5, ago, you’d get laughed at for a statement so ridiculous. Now, with the fiery Lions and their high scoring offense, Detroit can play in a shootout. At home, the Lions take this one.

Washington at Philadelphia (-6.5): Those Eagles have to be sick of playing down to the level of their opponents and losing close games at the end. And Washington has to hit a trench the week after pulling out a quickie against the Cowboys. I expect a huge performance from Brian Westbrook, as he’s faster and more explosive than any defender in Washington. (Maybe not more explosive that Sean Taylor, but a much better citizen anyway) Donovan looks like he gets Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown this week, that should help him crush Washington’s hopes early. The Eagles at home will be way too tough for the Skins.

Denver -9 at Oakland: I hate picking Denver with any more than 3 points to cover, but against an Oakland team that couldn’t even get close to scoring against a Hawks defense that had given up an average of 27 points a game for the 3 games prior to Monday Nights’ match-up, that’s just disgusting. And because of that sickness that Oakland seems to have offensively, I must choose Denver to score at least 10 points while shutting out the Raiders in Oakland. Will that get Tom Walsh fired? For my eye’s sake, I sure hope so.

Dallas at Arizona (+7): The Cardinals play well at home, and with Dennis Green’s job on the line, expect another performance from the Cards like the one they had against the Bears. The Cardinals have powerful offensive players, and while Edgerrin James will most likely struggle again, short precise passes out of Matt Leinart could do just enough to upset the Cowboys.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Seattle: 12th man taken to heart, I still believe the Rams have a passing attack that is too efficient and a running attack that’s too powerful to lose to the Hawks without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. Even if the Hawks do pull this one out, it’ll be by a field goal or less, and that would make me a winner anyway. Seattle doesn’t have enough firepower to stick with the Rams, and don’t expect the kind of defensive performance that the Hawks had on Monday Night, this week they don’t play the Raiders. I know Hawks fans, Seattle has been lobbying for that since Oakland won the Super Bowl, it’s just that no other team believes that would be fair.

Tampa Bay (+11) at Carolina: I love Carolina, love them as a team, love their players, and their coach seems like a great guy. Hell, taking them to win here is nearly a guarantee, but a spread that larger is kryptonite to the Panthers. Carolina always struggles against the spread, because they’re always a big favorite, and they love to play down to the level of their opponent. It’s a sickness, one I hope they don’t cure before Monday Night.

Week 10 College Football Picks Review: 2006

With another sub par performance, I’m stuck holding my head in shame. Sitting at 5-7 in the college ranks, I’m stuck wondering what could have been… Another week of pondering a shift in predictions awaits me, but for now, here’s my week 10 in review.

West Virginia (+1.5) @ Louisville Cardinals: LOSS! Louisville could stop West Virginia 1 out of every 3 drives, and Westy’s defense could never halt the Cardinal attack. Those two important factors kept the home team Cardinals undefeated while eliminating West Virginia’s Championship hopes.

Virginia Cavaliers (+12.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: LOSS! The Cavaliers just didn’t come to play, and that’s the flat out truth. FSU finally played like a Florida program, and I got my second loss in as many tries.

Missouri Tigers (+6.5) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers: LOSS! Those pesky Cornhuskers gave the Tigers yet another loss after their 6-0 start to the season. Nebraska is like Norte Dame for me these days, I just can’t figure out when they’re going to come to play and when they’re staying home.

Maryland (+17) @ Clemson Tigers: WIN! Maryland came out and slapped Clemson around, and I knew from the get go this was going to be an easy cover. Naturally, the game came down to a field goal, and the Terrapins walked out of Clemson with another big win, giving me win numero uno on the day.

Indiana Hoosiers (+6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: LOSS! The Hoosiers got pistol whipped by the Gophers, something I should have seen coming. I knew Minnesota was better than their record, but I thought the Hoosiers passing attack get them the win. I forgot about their terrible run defense, as the Gophers dominated early and often.

Pittsburgh Panthers (-5) @ South Florida Bulls: LOSS! The Pitt Panthers lost on the road, and except for the fact that they’re Pitt, and they do that type of stuff to sub par teams, I still don’t know how the managed to blow this much needed victory. What they did do is guarantee I wouldn’t have a good week.

Navy Midshipmen (-10.5) @ Duke Blue Devils: WIN! The Navy Midshipmen came out and stomped the Blue Devils, just as I had suspected. 38-13 looks nice, but I did suspect the Midshipmen would shut Duke out. However, whooping them by 25 will do just fine.

Georgia Bulldogs (-7) @ Kentucky Wildcats: LOSS! After Kentucky pumped Georgia, scoring 14 of their 24 points in the 4th quarter, I was now looking to win out to get to .500, something that never feels good. Georgia has really gone full circle in their tumble. A team dedicated to their defense has been man-handled by more than a couple teams this year.

North Carolina Tar Heels (+27) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: WIN! Those Irish, tricky little buggers, but I had their number this week. The Tar Heels are a bad football team, yet, for some reason, I knew the Irish would have a hard time coming to play on Saturday. I covered by 8 points, and the Irish, who should have won 52-7, just stalled long enough to get me the win. Thanks guys.

Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+17): WIN! Vanderbilt was down 25-6 after 3 quarters of play, but a couple 4th quarter scores guaranteed a victory for me. The Commodores couldn’t pull off the upset, falling 6 points short, but once again, they fought to the bitter end against a much stronger opponent.

Purdue Boilermakers (+2.5) @ Michigan State Spartans: WIN! Purdue ousted the Spartans in Michigan, 17-15, in a very boring game between two big time struggling programs. State lost their 6th game in their last 7 after crumbling to the Fighting Irish in Week 4. What a fall from grace. The Spartans always seem to really struggle after a big loss.

Washington Huskies (+14) @ Oregon Ducks: LOSS! The loss of Isaiah Stanbach finally came to kill the Huskies, as Oregon played tough throughout, and the Dawgs came up a touchdown short of making me a winner. Nothing seemed to go the Huskies way, as they lost their 5th straight game, (all close except the Duck game) going into their last two games of the season.

2006 Fantasy Football Week 10 theRUNDOWN

This Week’s Top Team: 140+ points, here I come… This week I’m looking for at least 2 guys who roam atop their position in the fantasy point standings. These are my guys.

QB: Donovan McNabb: The Eagles have to win this week against the Redskins, and DNabb is the man to bring them to victory. With Washington’s defense starting to play tougher against the run, look for McNabb to take advantage of his two young receivers on way to routing the Skins.

RB: Larry Johnson: I promised myself I wouldn’t take LJ and LT this weekend, but since that would hurt my chances at scoring the most possible points, I’m boinking that idea and going with the two best running backs in the league for the 3rd straight week. But, next week, I promise, I’ll pick two new contestants on the Price is right. Look for LJ to score more points than the entire Dolphin team.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson will be relied on to terminate the Bengals, something he’ll do his best to complete. Look for LT to get more touches outside of the tackle box this weekend, short passes, crossing patterns, and screens will help him get in the open field. LT will have yet another big day.

WR: Terrell Owens: Terrell has to have a huge week after killing his team by dropping an easy touchdown bomb last weekend, finally resulting in a Redskins win over the Boys, who had outplayed Washington all day long. Arizona, even more so than most other teams, have no answer for Owens’ playmaking ability. Look for TO to have his best game of the season against ‘Zona.

WR: Anquan Boldin: Larry Fitzgerald will be back on the field this weekend, and that means Boldin won’t get all the coverage from the defense. AB will have a huge day against a Cowboy team that isn’t stout against the pass. Dennis Green has had a couple weeks to prepare for this, so expect a big shootout in Arizona.

TE: Desmond Clark: With æ of the Giants’ defensive line sidelined by injury, Clark won’t be relied on at all to pass block. That means he’ll be running more routs, and getting more balls. Grossman finds safety in feeding Desmond, something I’m ready and willing to take advantage of.

K: Neil Rackers: Finally, Neil has to get back to his old form sooner or later. I’m not happy with sooner or later, I’m rolling the dice on this week, I’ll even predict a game winner from about 40 yards out on Sunday. Take that Cowgirls!

D: Ravens: It almost feels like cheating, taking Baltimore to dominate the Titans, but a mans got to do what a mans got to do. After Tennessee struggled last week, you can bet Baltimore will blitz Vince Young into submission.

If I were Steve Fischer, I wouldn’t have let Vince watch game film on the Ravens. No need to scare the kid.


Tony Romo: ToRo will be slangin’ missiles all day long against the Cardinals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nice number of rushing yards from Romo either, maybe even a score, because the Cardinals don’t hold their lines, or keep contain very well at all.

David Garrard: Houston’s little defenders won’t be able to compete with Jacksonville’s size at the receiver position. And the jaguars will get close to the endzone more than a handful of times. That means, Garrard will have more than a couple touchdown lobs to his threesome of big boys on the corners.

Steven Jackson: After LT and LJ, I would take Steven Jackson next. Jackson and the Rams always play well against Seattle, and although the Hawks downed the Raiders easily last week, don’t expect the Rams to fall that easily. St. Louis’ running game is too strong, Seattle will struggle to contain this Beaver.

Frank Gore: In a game that promises some scoring, the starting back in San Francisco will get his first touchdown since the opening weeks. If he has to break one to do it, fine, but I think Nolan will give him another shot on the goal line this week in Detroit.

Tim Carter: This ultimate sleepers candidate will see the field more than ever this week against the Bears. Say what you want about Chicago’s defense, I know for sure the Giants can pass on that secondary. Tim Carter will get Toomer’s balls, and that means nice things from this waiver wire warrior.

Lee Evans: Lee should get his chance to shine against the Colts. The Bills are almost guaranteed to be down early, and if that doesn’t force the Bills to get Lee the ball, I don’t know what will. Evans looks to shine when he’s needed most, this week with Willis out nursing a couple broken ribs.

Jason Witten: J-Dub will get his this week in Arizona. Owens will start off getting most of Romo’s attention, but when the coaching staff notices Witten getting single covered by linebackers, Romo will find him for big gains, and a touchdown. Expect double digits in fantasy points for Wit.

Jaguars DST: The Jags defense has a shark to blood mentality. This week, JAX hosts the Texans. Since Lefty went down, the Jag defense has stepped up. Against a bloodied Texan offense, expect these cats to pounce and pummel the hapless Houston 1st Pick in the NFL drafters.


Brett Favre: Luckily for the Vikings, their defense has shown they can play better than they did on Monday Night Football against the Patriots. Favre will get rushed into mistakes, and a tough game in Minni’s Dome.

Edgerrin James: Peyton! Tony! Marvin! Where the hell have you guys gone? You need me! I need you! On second thought, I’ll take all this damn money and run right the hell into defenders! Single digit fantasy points! (Taken from James’ subconscious)

Plaxico Burress: I don’t know why a dude with a bad back is calling out one of the hardest hitting units in professinal sports, but for such a dumb call by PB, you can bet he makes my wussy list of the week.

Randy Moss: Randy against Champ. This would be a great match up if Moss was playing anywhere but Oakland. Unfortunately for him, and my fantasy team, Randy can’t do dick if Elmer freaking Fudd is throwing him the ball. The way the Raider O line is blocking lately, it might as well be Fudd back there, he’s got just as good a chance as getting the ball off as Andrew Walter does.

Free NFL Picks 05-06 Week 10

Wing Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding! Start Your Engines!I’m one game under .500 if you take away the first week of the season. I’m 47-38-1 if you give me the benefit of two off weeks… (week 1 and week 8) Basically, I’m looking for a line here… Throw me a bone. All weeks included, I’m 54-61-1… Hey, not even Einstein was perfect. I’m halfway through the year with nothing but the up and up in my near future. The goal is 15 games over .500 for the year. Stay tuned to see if I reach the plateau. week 10 has the makings of a make-up week. I’m looking for 11-3, which would bring me up and over Shaq’s free throw percentage for the year. This is how I’m going to do it…

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Buffalo Bills – This is my best bet of the week. I know what you’re saying, that doesn’t mean dick, but listen to what I’m saying. Since Takeo Spikes injury, the Buffalo Bills usually stout defense has been a sieved to opposing rushing attacks. The Kansas City Chiefs, both with and without Priest, have one of the leagues most feared running games. Kelly Holcomb is a better option than J.P. Losman, but he won’t make the difference against the Chiefs. Trent Green will have on of his best games of the year, as will Tony Gonzalez. With the Bills keyed in on Larry Johnson, Green will find wide open spaces in the secondary.
Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

Washington Redskins (-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Washington Redskins showed me they were for real with a win over an emotionally charged Eagle team that was ready to play. Both teams played stern defense, but it was the Redskins who came away with the big play when the game was on the line. In some cases, you just have to admit you were wrong about a team and remove your foot from your mouth. This is one of those times. I’ve been hard on Joe Gibbs and the Skins. I’ve been critical of the Redskin offense. The bottom line is, Santana Moss is the real deal, Clinton Portis is a solid back, and Mark Brunell still has enough in the tank to get the ball to his two playmakers. Game Date: 11/13/05 16:20 ET

New England Patriots (-3) @ Miami Dolphins – The Patriots let me down for the millionth time. This time I was taking the Pats to pull out the upset. Sure enough, the Colts were much too good for Tom Brady’s Patriots, leaving me to question if the Patriots are indeed done. I predicted in my season preview that the Patriots would be lucky to be 4-4 halfway through the regular season. At 4-4 the Patriots still control their own destiny. They are the sure leaders of their division. Even if they continue down the path of mediocrity, they’ll beat out the Bills, Titans, and Jets with relative ease. Take the Patriots over the Dolphins in a game they should win. They’re still good enough to this kind of game.
Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

San Francisco 49ers (+13) @ Chicago Bears – I’ll be surprised if either of these teams score 13 points in this game. The 49ers will most likely rely on Cody “Couldn’t win at UW” Pickett while the NFC Norris leading Bears will bet their load on Kyle “Just enough to win” Orton. These two signal callers don’t make for an air assault, that’s for sure. The Niners will do their best to run the ball as much as possible, as will Chicago. That doesn’t sound like a 13 point spread to me. That sounds more like 17-7. Take the Niners for the single reason that both the Bears and San Francisco struggle to put points on the board. Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (-10) – The Vikings got a big win against the up again down again Detroit Lions in week 9. That doesn’t mean they are good enough to play with the Giants. That means they are good enough to trick the betting world in to wagering on the “new” Vikings. Let me tell you something; the “new” Vikings are led by the “not so new” Brad Johnson. Betting on Michael Bennett busting out for another 100+ yard performance is a little bit of a stretch. Eli Manning is back at home, which means, he’s in his comfort zone. Take the Giants in a clubbing.
Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Detroit Lions – Up or down? How will the Lions play in week 10? Last week was down, so many would expect a little improvement… Ha! Don’t bet on it. The Arizona Cardinals are ready for a breakout game after falling to the bottom of their division. The Lions are an easy target, especially with Joey “DD” Harrington at the helm. Kurt Warner will manage his best game of the year, possibly even going turnoverless in Detroit. Customarily the Lions play better football at home. Customarily the Lions don’t suck.
Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars don’t usually play with a huge lead. The Jaguars don’t often score more than 21 points. With the Ravens playing better football of late, the Jaguars will be lucky to grind out a tough win at home against the aging Ravens. Fred Taylor won’t be available for the Jaguars, but their young receiving corps and the ageless Jimmy Smith will make enough big plays to down the Ravens. Not without a fight, which is exactly why the Ravens will cover the spread in Jacksonville.
Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-17) – 17 points is tough, but not tough enough. I know the Texans covered last week against the Jaguars, but these aren’t the Jaguars, these are the 8-0, finally beat he Patriots, going 9-0 without question, Colts. The Colts won’t fumble their undefeated season chances against the hapless Houston Texans. Andre Johnson finally broke out of his season long slump with a whopping 91 receiving yards in week 9. Big F-ing deal! Getting excited about 91 yards is why the Colts will beat the Texans by 30 points. Game Date: 11/13/05 13:05 ET

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-9) – The Carolina Panthers are starting to really come together. Imagine how good they’d be with the best defensive tackle in football, Kris Jenkins. With or without Kris, they’re still 10 points better than the Bollinger led New York Jets. Stephen Davis will finally have a good yard per carry average and Steve Smith will continue to dominate as he has all year. Don’t look now, but the Panthers are going for their 6th straight victory.
Game Date: 11/13/05 16:10 ET

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+3) – The Oakland Raiders will stun the world by taking down the unflappable Denver Broncos. Jake Plummer can’t throw the ball, don’t be confused by his last two games, without a rushing attack Jake is nothing. The Raiders will stand stout against the Bronco blocking scheme, putting pressure on Jake to do the right thing. He’ll fail the test as the Oakland Raiders fight back to 4-5, giving their postseason hopes another week of survival. This game means too much to Warren Sapp, Randy Moss and the rest of the Raiders to give up a game to their rival Broncos in Oakland. Game Date: 11/13/05 16:10 ET

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) – There are a lot of things pulling me in the Rams’ direction. The 7 points the Seahawks are giving is painful, the way Stephen Jackson is running the rock, and the way the Rams usually take care of the Hawks is another reason. But can I bet against the Hawks? No. Not after Shaun Alexander learned to lower his shoulder into opposing defenses, not after the Hawks went down to Arizona and came away victorious, and not after the way the Hawks finished off the Rams in their early-season match-up. Look for the Hawks to further distance themselves from the rest of their weak division. Don’t look too much into the easy Seahawk schedule, but if they win the games they should, they’ll have the best record in the NFC by seasons’ end. Game Date: 11/13/05 16:20 ET

Green Bay Packers (+9.5) @ Atlanta Falcons – Take the Packers? Green Bay has played close in too many games to bet against Brett Favre with 9.5 on his side. Green Bay’s 7 loses have come by a total of 40 points. That’s an average of less than 6 points difference, with 4 of those losses coming by 3 points or less. In other words, the Packers do just enough to screw you over when you bet against them. Don’t let Brett fool you; he’s still got enough gas in the tank to put points up against a Falcons defense that couldn’t sack Gus Frerotte once last week in Miami. Game Date: 11/13/05 16:20 ET

Cleveland Browns (+8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers – This marks my 6th underdog point spread of the week. I’m not sure Cleveland can score enough to beat the Steelers, but I am sure that Charlie Batch attempted 11 passes last week against the pathetic Green Bay secondary. If that’s any indicator on what’s to come in his second start, there is no way the Steelers will finish off the Browns easily. With Willie Parker out, the Steelers will rely on Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis to carry the load. Cleveland will be ready, take them with more than a touchdown on their side.
Game Date: 11/13/05 20:40 ET

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – It’s time for the Eagles to step up and play like the best team in the NFC. Even without TO, Donovan McNabb and the rest of the birds showed they can produce on offense. Reggie Brown is a solid talent. If you ask me, between Donovan and Brian Westbrook, the Eagles will run more in week 10 than they’ve done all year. Without TO, Donovan McNabb is the perfect rushing weapon to keep the Cowboys honest. Last week there were multiple times when McNabb had ample opportunity to pull the ball down and get an easy first down. He didn’t and they ran out of time against Washington. Don’t expect Andy Reid to make the same mistakes twice. Game Date: 11/14/05 21:10 ET


Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks