I need a big winner this week – but I have to ride the way I’ve been capping the last 3 seasons, because that’s how I know best, and that’s how I win. Check out my games this week, and if you want my elite half, check out my elite picks.
Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (+3):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
The Browns aren’t as good as their 3-3 record insists, and the Rams, while they’ve played more than their fair share of terrible football, I think their make-shift offensive line will play pretty well against a browns defense that knows how to give up lots of points. Cleveland won’t be able to run against the Rams, a very underrated run defense, and thus they’ll have to pass the ball to put up points. I know Derek Anderson has had a hell of a year thus far, but I think he slips this week. It’s always interesting to see how an underdog team finally plays when they’re favored. I think the browns will slip up.
Detroit Lions (+5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
I think the Lions are too offensive for the Bears. Detroit has struggled offensively the last few games, and I think that’s an aberration, and that they’ll step it up against the Bears. The Lions are oddly confident this season, and I kind of like that. I think that’s what the Bears had over the NFC North over the last year, but now, every team in that division knows they can beat the Bears, and that means trouble for a Chicago team that can’t run the football. A straight up win by the Lions wouldn’t surprise me.
Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee Titans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)
5Dimes has this offer on the table, and I just can’t pass it up. I probably would think about taking the Titans at 7 or less, but 7.5 seems like a lot in a game with two teams that are pretty similar. Both offenses are very one-dimensional, and while the Titans have the better defense by far, the Raiders have enough talent in the secondary to play 8 guys in the box, making running room tough to find for LenDale White. Vince Young is a spread killer, so don’t say I didn’t warn you, but I like the Raiders to cover the 9 point spread in this one.
Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (-10):
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I’m not sure how this line will change, or what will happen to my bet at the beginning of the week, but on Monday this game put the Chargers in as a 10 point favorite, something I like against a defense that probably won’t be able to slow down LaDainian Tomlinson. LT looks to be back at his best, and the Texans secondary isn’t strong enough to make Rivers fit the ball into tight spots. The addition of Chris Chambers will open up the field for Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and LT – that being said, be careful with this game, the fires around the San Diego area could effect where this game is played, and where the minds of Chargers’ players are at.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)
I don’t like the Saints, I just like the 49ers less. The Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they can’t walk into any game thinking they can skate and win. So, they’ll come in and fight the 49ers long and hard, and win by 3-7 points as the game will come down to the last drive. But if that’s the case, I like Drew Brees to find himself again, Reggie Bush to make a big play, or Marques Colston to snap out of his sophomore funk. I like those 3 options a lot more than I like Alex Smith walking out of the training room or Trent Dilfer grandfathering the offense to lead the 49ers to a win. Give me the Saints, but I don’t love it as much as you’d think.
Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
First of all, I don’t think the line has good value in this game, but I have to take the Pats. I think the Redskins have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far, but that doesn’t mean they will have trouble scoring. New England has made it look easy this season, and while this game might have a few more twists and turns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is very possible, especially with such a young quarterback running the show for the Redskins. New England’s defense is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means the Redskins’ rushing attack will have to go through walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell. Yes, the Patriots are this good.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)
I don’t usually like the Colts as big favorites, but against the WAY overrated Panthers, a team starting either Vinny Testeverde or David Carr at quarterback, yeah, I’ll take my chances with my #2 team in football. The Colts are very good, whether you or me or anyone else wants to except that, I don’t care. They are one of the best teams in football, and Bob Sanders is the most dynamic safety I’ve seen since Ronnie Lott hit the field back in the day. Yes, he makes plays faster than everyone else on the field. The Panthers are too slow (besides Steve Smith – who will get special treatment) to compete in this one.