A huge 6-1 week left me rolling in the dough, finally, in Week 8. This week, I’m trying to re-invest and demonstrate a more even slope toward the top of the damn chart. I was 7-1 with my elite picks as well, tough to beat a 13-2 run in the NFL, I’ll tell you that much. Here’s my Free picks for Week 9’s NFL games, as an added bonus, I’m giving out 8 picks this week.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders (-3):
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
This is a very tough game for me. First and foremost, I don’t think the Raiders should ever be favored, but this might be the exception to the rule. Matt Schaub is out, Ahman Green is probably out, and Andre Johnson is probably out. Also, Josh McCown makes the Raiders better via the air, which should open up the rushing attack a little more, so without further a due, I’ll take the Raiders at home minus a field goal.
Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ N.Y. Jets:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
Finally, another defense that will make Jason Campbell look good. After the last few weeks, being a Campbell fan has been tough sledding, but the Jets will show up to give up tons of yards, tackle poorly, and guard next to no one. I like the Redskins here to turn it around. And personally, I’d like to thank the Patriots for making the Redskins look and feel so bad that not only is the line a little lower than I think it should be, but the Redskins should come into this game as fired up as they’ve been all season long. With Clemmens in, the Jets have more of a chance, but with Coles out (head injury), the receiving corps will struggle a bit. Cotchery isn’t good enough yet to be the true #1 guy.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I guess I like the Bucs’ ability to do all the little things right. I think they’re outmatched talent-wise, but being at home, with a big opportunity to get a big win, against a Cardinal team that is prone to mistakes, make me like the Bucs here. Jeff Garcia is a winner when getting even an ounce of hope. That’s not only admirable, but worth a bet. Plus, I like this Earnest Graham cat a lot.
New England Patriots (-5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I’m going with the Patriots here, but not because this bet has good value, the value is in fact terrible. This has to be the first time in the history of lines and wagering on sporting events that an undefeated returning champion is an underdog at home, let alone by 5, 6, and even 7 points at some books. The problem is, I actually think this is a fair assessment of the talent of these two teams. The Patriots are probably the best team I’ve seen for a very long time. They are very good in every aspect of the game, and you know what they say, “Hard work beats talent unless talent works hard.” The Patriots work the hardest and have the most talent. How can you bet against them?
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
I think the Falcons are too far gone to win this game. San Francisco still has a shot at the West, despite their recent struggles. Frank Gore will find running room against a very bad rushing defense that just lost their best run-stuffing defensive lineman. There are many Falcons that think, and have expressed their opinion that, the front office is giving up on this season, and preparing for next year. True or not, that’s not the kind of thing I like the team I’m betting on to be thinking. Needless to say, I’ll be taking the Niners.
San Diego Chargers (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I think the Vikings can play well against teams with average to poor rush defenses. The Chargers have a beastly defensive front 7 with plenty of insanely fast speedsters with a knack for making the big play. That’s not good for a team that has already been dealing with 8 man fronts. The Vikings don’t have enough through the air to keep up with the Chargers, and defensively, they don’t have enough in the secondary to hang with a pass catching unit that got a whole lot more dangerous with the Chris Chambers addition.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns:
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I may be a bit stuck on my pre-season assessment of team talent here, but I think the Hawks are going to kill the Browns. I think the Hawks’ defense is one of the better units in football, and the Browns have been playing out of their minds offensively. That means there is a lull on the way. The Hawks bring enough pressure to keep Derek Anderson uncomfortable, and when that happens to the big youngster, he seems to flash into mistake mode. The Hawks have a solid offense, good enough to put up 30 on the Browns. That should easily win this game.
Baltimore Ravens (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Monday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)
With everything going against the Ravens in this one, I have a feeling they could play a lot better than people are giving them credit for. They’ve been one of the better ATS teams in football over the last 5 years, and I think they can hang within 10 of the Steelers on Monday Night’s grand stage, even in Pittsburgh.