Author Archives: luckylester

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions NFL Week 17 Pick

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Welcome to absolutely meaningless football, or at least I think it is. It’d be great for the Lions to win this final game, but then again, it might keep Lovie Smith employed if the Bears come out victorious against Detroit’s hapless Lions. So maybe there is something to fight for after all… Hmm…. Something to fight for or not, it’s about time somebody figured out the Bears are bad – only a 3 point favorite in Detroit after beating up on the Vikings- something has to be trying to trick us. But I still have to go with the public here and ride the Bears to victory.

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Chicago might be bad, a lot worse than people expected, but they aren’t Lions’ bad. The books are expecting a big let-down after Monday Night’s offensive explosion against Minnesota, and I agree, there will be some sort of let-down. But a let-down against the Lions still leaves room for some error and some victory. Jay Cutler looked as comfortable as he’s been all season when throwing balls to Devin Aromashadu to win the game last week. Well, his favorite young receiver is back, and his running game will be able to see some success on Sunday as well.
A combination of those things and the reality that this is the Lions, playing in Detroit where they are often at their worst, during a completely lost season – has me going with Da Bears.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: NFL Week 17 Predictions

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I hate to do this, really, the Bills favored by 7 points seems disgusting, but it’s going to be against Indianapolis and their second team, as I’m sure Peyton and crew won’t make it out of the first quarter. Will that be enough? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to bet that mediocre Colts run defense doesn’t stop the Bills rushing attack that has been solid of late (don’t get tricked by their relatively solid ranking, they are ranked high against the run because opponents are forced to pass against them).

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Just like last week when I was all over the Jets, this week should be more of the same. I know the Colts second string guys aren’t nothing, and maybe Indy will run the ball with some success against Buffalo – but the Bills have proven they can gang up on one aspect of an opponents offense and play pretty well – when one-sided offenses come to town, the Bills have some success. Well, I see the Colts coming in and trying to run more than they pass, and the Bills ganging up on that and holding it pretty well in check.

Buffalo doesn’t need a win and it will only pull them away from a better draft pick, but they’ll try to win, at least Jauron will, I mean it’s nice to win in your last game, right?

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

Fantasy Focus: Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

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If your into Week 17, you’re in the finals and your league is crazy for doing Week 17 finals – but there’s some hope! A- you likely are partaking in the winnings no matter what, and B- despite you having some guys that won’t be worth suiting up despite being awesome, I have a handful of guys ready to rock to the top spot despite low rankings. For the glory!!!

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice – The Raiders can’t handle the run and the Ravens need a win to get into the playoffs. Here, Ray, run…
2. Chris Johnson–  He’s going for 2000 yards on the season, and the all-time single season yards from scrimmage deal. And all this against the Hawks. You bet!
3. Jonathan Stewart – The Saints will end up resting guys and J-Stew will end up rocking the yardage.
4. Jay Cutler – Will the Bears let up and lose this week? I don’t think so, but either way, passing yards on they way!
5. Miles Austin– Tony has been throwing it great, and Miles has speed, great hands and his QB’s trust.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson –The Cowboys’ worst nightmare, always a cut away from a long touchdown.
2. Carnell Williams– Caddy will come to play on Sunday, making it through a full season is reason to blow up!
3. Santonio Holmes – Like his teammate at WR, these two guys should do work in Miami.
4. Hines Ward – Should be good against the Dolphins leaky secondary.
5. Sydney Rice – The Giants secondary has been brutal, and Rice has been Favre’s go-to-guy.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Jerome Harrison –No reason to jump off his back, he’s been doing work for me!
2. Matt Forte – Almost a forgotten man, Forte should have a solid day against the Lions.
3. Arian Foster– Sure, he’s going up against a decent Patriots defensive front, but how long will they keep their starters in?
4. Quentin Ganther– Tough to want to start him after last week’s poo-pile, but I think he will be solid.
5. Devin Aromashadu– The kid has legit speed, and he goes to get the ball. Better yet, Jay likes to throw it to him.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Donald Brown – I think the rookie will get the lion’s share of the carries, good thing he’s playing Buffalo.
2. Sammy Morris – He seems to be the guy New England will use on Sunday – and he can pound away at yardage.
3. Shonn Greene –I see Greene taking over for Thomas Jones when the game is in the Jets’ hands, and that could be good.
4. Greg Camarillo – Should be good for at least 12 fantasy points this week vs. Pittsburgh.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Colts Starters– I’d be scared to start all the following starters for their teams, and I’m starting Tom Brady in one league despite my better judgment in not trusting Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
2. Patriots Starters–
3. Bengals Starters –
4. Saints Starters –
5. Packers Starters–

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***Last week of the year, you might as well go down swinging!!! Good work to get this far!***

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College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

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I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

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Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Sugar Bowl Predictions: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

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One of these teams was supposed to go undefeated. One of these teams had a quarterback that was supposed to find himself at the top of the Heisman list, and one of these two programs were heavy favorites to win a National Championship – but the other team actually went undefeated, and the other team should have had a quarterback on the Heisman list (and would have had he not been out for a handful of games), and the other team got robbed a chance at the National Championship despite being undefeated, because they don’t play in a conference with “big” money. There it is. So Cincinnati comes to the Sugar Bowl trying to prove themselves a legit title contender, and Florida, well, they come to show that their game against Alabama was a fluke, and to send one of the best college players of all time out on a win.

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Both of these teams will be without the head coach that got them to where they are. Cincinnati’s head man Brian Kelly bolted for a chance to rebuild and their interim coach, Jeff Quinn headed out promptly, taking the Buffalo head job. Then you have Florida, and Urban Meyer’s health problems have him out of this game, and almost retiring from the position altogether, but that’s all up in the air, or changed, or – well, we’ll see how that goes in due time.

The bottom line is Florida is an elite team in the country. Their defense has heaps of NFL talent and their offense has one of the greatest leaders of college football history – not to mention speed that Cincinnati hasn’t seen. And I think Cincinnati’s luck has run it’s course – this is a team that had their fair share of close games, and should have lost their last one. Having something to prove is a little overrated, especially when you’re going up against one of the best teams in college football after they got kicked around and embarrassed in front of the sporting world. Something tells me they’ll be plenty motivated.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Florida Gators (-10.5)

Rose Bowl Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks

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It’s tough for me because this game is often a bit of a let down. Usually, the Pac-10 school is a heavy home team favorite, as the game is always played in Pac-10 country, and these are often two conferences that aren’t nearly as strong as their “big conference” hype insists. I mean, when Boise State beats the crap out of the top team in the Pac 10 and yet still can’t get close to a title shot, that should give you an idea of the conference strength. And then you have the Big 10, and while Ohio State is definitely the class of that conference, the 4th place team in the Pac 10 beat the Buckeyes in Ohio. And while the Buckeyes made easy work of just about everyone outside of their loss (Purdue) and their overtime win against Iowa – but the Big 10 isn’t as good as the WAC this year, in fact I don’t know if it’s close. I can think of 10 small college teams that would have finished Top 3 in the Big 10. The Big 10 is three more bowl losses away from being relegated a Division 1-AA program, or sub-division, or whatever…

When it comes down to it, I don’t think the Buckeyes can score with Oregon. The Ducks are going to out-rush the Buckeyes, and that’s not good for Ohio State – they have only one win when that happens.

Oregon played awesome offensively this season, scoring more than 40 points in 6 of their last 8 games – Ohio State scored 40+ one time, against New Mexico State. Yep.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks (-3.5)

New Years Day Football Bowl Games Picks & Previews

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Friday’s Bowl games boast some pretty intriguing match-ups for die-hard football fans – you have Bobby Bowden rocking his last game at the head of the Florida State empire that he built. You have two college powerhouses, old – Penn State against new – LSU – and both did work in their respective conferences this season. And then you have the two BCS games, but I’ll talk about them separately. Here are the three games for New Years Day.

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OUTBACK BOWL
Northwestern Wildcats @ Auburn Tigers (-7): Well, Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin, and I guess both of them had solid seasons in the all powerful Big 10 – but besides that, there’s hardly another noteworthy victory on their schedule, and their only good loss came against Penn State – good as in good team, not as in good game, they got beat 34-13. Other losses include Michigan State, Minnesota, and Syracuse – yikes. Auburn has had their fair share of piddlers, I mean they ended the season 2-5, but their 5 losses came to Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama – and Kentucky, all pretty good teams in a pretty good conference. That’s enough for me, I think they win by double digits.

GATOR BOWL
Florida State Seminoles @ West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5): The ACC hasn’t wowed me this season, and West Virginia has speed to burn. This Mountaineer team is built for Bowl Games, because the longer they prepare, the more their speed can be put to use. Florida State is playing without their big guy, as Christian Ponder is down and out with injury – and I don’t think they have the firepower to put up enough points to beat FSU. There it is.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
LSU Tigers (+3) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: This is the first really big Top 15 match-up of the Bowl Season, as the Tigers and Nittany Lions go at it. Not only are they highly ranked, and with just two losses between them, but both have the talent to play with anyone – but as is, I think the tigers are the better team. They don’t have the greatest rushing attack, and through the air they leave a little to be desired, but Penn State hasn’t had one impressive win all season long. Honestly, Michigan State, Northwestern? That’s about it. And while they killed both of those teams, those teams aren’t LSU. I think the Tigers win.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns

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NFL Week 17 Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns: With the Jaguars still in the playoff hunt (though their shot is longer than that pass Mike Vick threw in that Gatorade commercial before “the incident”) and a meager Cleveland Browns team between them and a shot at a possible post-season appearance, I just can’t see them blowing it again. I know it’s kind of their bag, but at some point it has to change, and while I don’t expect a win to actually get them into the show, losing to the Browns in what is essentially an elimination game for the Jags seems too much like Jacksonville for it actually to happen. That’s probably not a good enough reason, but it’s something.

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Then you have Jacksonville being just flat out better than Cleveland. And any team can play well for a few weeks, shoot, even the Bucs are on the verge of a three game winning streak, but that doesn’t make them a good team. The same can be said for Cleveland, obviously they’ve been bad all year for a reason, and that reason is that they are bad. The Jaguars will put 9 guys in the box if they have to, and Derek Anderson hasn’t, in the last couple years, shown me that he can hit a barn from the hay stack. Advantage Jacksonville.

Then you have this guy named Maurice Jones Drew, one of the best players in football, and a guy that absolutely wants the game resting on his back. Well, despite failing to involve him enough all season long, the Jaguars have no choice but to feed him 30 touches in this game. And without an elite pass-rush, or even a solid one, the Browns will give up too many chunks of yards to Garrard in the passing game. Those things add right up to a Jaguars win in Cleveland. In fact, I don’t know how this game has the line it has.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns.

New Year's Eve Bowl Games: Free College Football Picks

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The amount of college games on the docket right now is a little overbearing, so I’m going to go ahead and write a little less about each game, include them into one article, and cut down on the amount of computer hours I’m putting in these last few weeks. Don’t worry, I’ll still have some of the bigger games of the College Bowl season with bigger write ups, so keep checking in. And don’t feel like I’m ripping you off, the same amount of research goes into these picks as any write up I do for any other pick I do all year. Here goes Thursday’s Bowl Games…

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Air Force Falcons @ Houston Cougars (-4.5): The quick little bit of information I gave on this game in my weekly newsletter still has me liking the Cougars to pull it out over the Falcons. I said the Falcons have been blistered by elite passing attacks, and in their last 3 losses they were out-gained through the air by 550+ yards. I think the Cougars have a chance to do that again.

Stanford Cardinal (+10) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I know the Pac 10 has been brutal, and I know the Cardinal are without their freshman sensation at running back, but something in me just trusts Jim Harbaugh to get his team prepared for this big game. Since he got on campus as the head man at Stanford, he’s had his kids ready to play better than expected, especially against elite opponents. They have a stellar rushing attack, and not just at running back, their offensive line is one of the best in the country. That should be worth a 10 point cover.

Navy Midshipmen (+7) @ Missouri Tigers: Navy has out-rushed their opponent in 8 of their last 10 games, winning 7 of those match-ups. Missouri was out-gained on the ground in 4 of their last 8 games, and in all four they recorded the loss. It’s not as good as gold, but with a touchdown to play with, I  sure like the consistent and disciplined Navy Midshipmen.

Iowa State Cyclones (+3) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Neither of these teams really impress me, but I know what I think about the Big 10, and while the Big 12 is a little overrated, they are much better than the Big 10. Both teams were terribly inconsistent, playing with Top 25 talent one week while getting beaten up other weeks – the one thing keeping me with Iowa is that Minnesota gives up lots of rushing yards, and Iowa State has shown the ability to win when they can run.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5): The SEC really embarrassed the ACC toward the end of the year in some inter-conference match-ups, but I don’t see that happening here. Tennessee has gone through to stuff with some trouble within the program towards the end of the season, and while they played well in some games down the stretch, I think all that attention hurts them a bit against the Hokies. Va Tech won 4 straight to end the season, never giving up more than 13 points and out-scoring their opponents 132-35 in those games. Your can run on Tennessee, and the Vols don’t throw the ball real well – both those statistical advantages look to really favor the Hokies in this one.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Idaho Vandals: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

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These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!

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Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.

Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.

Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)