These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!
Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.
Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.
Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)