Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 4

Now that the bye week season is upon us, there are 14 NFL games to choose from. I’m giving my elite package 7 games and showing 7 free picks to my readers that just want the free stuff. Week 4 has loads of tight lines and some big time games, like Monday Night’s big showdown in Cincinnati. Check out my free picks, and if you are interested in my Elite Package, let us know.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

I’m afraid of this game, because I’m not sure the Raiders can stop Ronnie Brown, and I’m almost positive that the Dolphins can’t stop any rushing attack starring a guy under 40 years old with 5 lineman of college experience or better. However, Miami has more riding on this game, with Cam Cameron yet to pull a victory out of his new team. With him done playing games with Ronnie Brown, and Trent Green starting to figure out Marty Booker and Chris Chambers better, I just have a gut feeling that the Dolphins take this game by a touchdown. However, there’s the Daunte Culpepper factor for the Raiders, which really makes me want to steer clear of this game. How bad does he want to beat the Dolphins? If I were a betting man, and I had to pick this game, I would wager with the home team – but as a former player, I know how much hatred can raise your game. My advice, steer clear from this one, but if you must, take the Fins.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Believe it or not, I like the Lions in this one. I don’t know if they are the popular pick or what, but I don’t know why everyone thinks that Brian Griese is going to save the Bears. He may play well in this one, but even with a decent day from Mr. Griese, I don’t think the Bears can stop the Lions’ passing attack enough to keep up with Detroit. Chicago’s secondary isn’t very good anyway, and with all the injuries in Chicago, it’s beginning to look even uglier. No Tommie Harris, no Mike Brown, no Lance Briggs, no Mike Ditka. It’s all getting much clearer now. The question is, if Brian can’t perform against Detroit’s secondary, will Rexxy get another shot? My fantasy team sure hopes so.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Houston Texans to take it to the Falcons. Even with Ahman Green and Andre Johnson on the sidelines, the Texans’ broken receiving corps and second tier running back situation will still be able to take advantage of the Falcons defense. Matt Schaub will be tossing the ball around against his old team, and how bad do you think he wants to win this game? More than a few people know that he was the best quarterback in Atlanta over the last couple of seasons, and he wasn’t smoking weed or killing dogs. Anyway, I’m done with that Vick business, all I know is that Schaub will make the Falcons wish they had kept him, even more-so than they already do.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Steelers have looked unbeatable. They don’t allow points. Their aggressive defense is legit. Willie Parker is a beast. Ben Roethlisberger is back to “doing the right thing” and limiting his mistakes. Santonio Holmes is a nice deep threat and Nate Washington will do a fine job replacing Hines Ward’s absence while Cedrick Wilson will also contribute. I don’t think Kurt Warner will surprise the Steelers like he did the Ravens – so don’t expect that guy to lead a second half comeback. Tomlin’s boys look good – a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS to start the season would look even better.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-11.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 1:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

That’s a lot of points to cover for a team who hasn’t looked like even a lesser version of last years’ offense, but I think it’ll all come around this week for the Chargers. God knows that the Chiefs don’t have the weapons to put up points, so its not like the Chargers will have to score 35 to cover. Three touchdowns and a field goal, and this game will be an absolute wrap. San Diego’s defense has underperformed while their offense hasn’t shown anything Norv Turner-esque. Expect that to change next week when LT steels the show at home against Larry Johnson. Yes, stop Larry and you stop the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos (+11) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5-Dimes)

I just don’t like the Colts to cover big spreads against run-heavy teams. Tennessee gave them trouble, because like usual, they don’t have the bulk to stop defense in short yardage instances. Travis Henry has beasted the Colts before, no doubt about that. Jay Cutler will be able to take advantage of the Colts deep, and Henry and that famous Denver offensive line will be able to keep the ball long enough to cover that 11 point spread. Plus, Denver’s secondary will force the Colts to run early and often, meaning there will be very few quick scores in this one. Long drives means a close game – so I’ll take the 11 points and Denver.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Until the Patriots prove that they aren’t the best team to ever play the game, I will be taking them and any spread Vegas throws at them. They have shown an ability to shut down key offensive players, eliminate entire rushing attacks, and put up points like they’re scrimmaging against air. The Bengals defense can’t stop anyone, and while Carson, Chad, and TJ are as talented as any WR/QB trio in the league, they can’t win this game by themselves. The Patriots have scored 38 in each game this year. They’ve given up no more than 14. They are the team to beat in the NFL.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 4

This Week’s Top Team: Week 3 produced my top fantasy group thus far, with Tom Brady, Brian Westbrook, and Randy Moss leading my group of marry men. This week, the lineup looks a little different, and that’s because I need 150 points to be satisfied. Here we go…

QB: Tom Brady vs. Cincinnati: This is the toughest decision I’ll have to make, as there are 4 or 5 great options this weekend – unfortunately, I’m going for the safest choice, Tom Brady against that terrible Bengals secondary. However, McNabb and Romo are tough to pass up going into Week 4, all of these guys have great match-ups against bad defenses. I’ll stick with the new daddy.

RB: Brian Westbrook vs. NY Giants: Brain Westbrook is the scariest offensive player in the NFC. He’s scary because of his ability, and the fact that he’s a little fragile and you never know. The Giants defense doesn’t have one guy that is fast enough to keep up with Westy, so I imagine he’ll beast them if he dresses.

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Denver: At the end of the day, Peyton Manning will have handed and dumped the ball off to Addai more than he will have thrown to Harrison, Wayne, and Clark combined. Denver’s rush defense is bad, to say the least, and with so much energy spent on slowing Manning and company, I foresee a huge day for Mr. Addai.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Cincinnati: If my Tom Brady to Randy Moss combo continues to flourish, I have a hard time believing that Brady won’t find Moss for at least two touchdowns against a Bengals defense that has looked terrible week in and week out.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. St. Louis: Free Fantasy points over here! Come and get them. Terrell Owens is way too physical for the Rams defensive backs, especially with the speedy and talented Tye Hill out once again. I see a very big score discrepancy in this one, with Owens doing most of his damage in the first half.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Kansas City: If its not obvious by now that opposing teams are going to make Phillip Rivers beat them instead of LT, then I don’t know jack. What I see is everyone in KC trying to stop LT, and Gates going off for somewhere around 150 yards.

K: Matt Stover vs. Cleveland: I think the Ravens offense is good enough to move the ball, but they haven’t shown me they are much of a touchdown threat, so I’ll go with Stover. Matt is a money kicker, and given chances this week against a bad Browns defense, you can imagine he’ll get those kicks through the uprights.

D: Chargers vs. Chiefs: I’m taking another chance against the Chiefs here, because their offense is brutal. I’m hoping for a shutout, and or a defensive touchdown coming off a couple big hits by the OLBs in San Diego. It’s tough to imagine the Chiefs taking many chances in this game, but if SD can get up early, and start clicking on offense, KC will have to take some chances, and if that’s the case, I like the Chargers chances to put up defensive numbers.


Daunte Culpepper: How bad do you think Pep wants to beat Miami’s organization? I know Saban is gone, but Cameron didn’t even give Pep a chance, electing to trade for father time, Trent Green, instead. Well, I think Pep will outperform Green, and the Raiders might start a winning streak in Miami.

Rex Grossman: If Rex gets the boot by Wednesday, cross this one out – but if he’s starting again, I think he could have a good Rex day against the Lions. Detroit’s defensive secondary is bad, and Rex can have good days. Seeing as this will almost surely be his last chance, I’m going to throw him on my sleeper list and say, “start him!”

Brian Leonard: Many people are looking for that guy to be a replacement this week, and while St. Louis’s offense is brutal, and their line is battered, Leonard will get plenty of chances to do a thing or two against Dallas this week, and with all the problems the Rams are having lately, I have a feeling the Cowboys defense could come out slow, as this game is a wrap, and let Leonard do some early damage. Not a great option, but as a true sleeper stop-gap, I’d roll the dice on Brian.

Marshawn Lynch: I don’t know if he can be a sleeper, because he’s shown up to do damage against every team he’s played against this season, but Lynch is almost a must start against the Jets. N.Y. has shown they can’t stop the run (look at their past 3 games) and Lynch will carry the load for Buffalo with a rookie quarterback starting. Lots of touches against N.Y…. Sounds like a big day.

Thomas Jones: Jones against Buffalo’s defense is a lock for 125 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t gone off yet, and he can sill be considered a sleeper – if you can trade for him, now is a good time to do it if you didn’t do it already. He’ll be a Top 10 guy in the RB list this week.

Lee Evans: Wow, how far this guy has fallen. I’m sure its not his fault, but that of the pathetic play of JP Losman and just bad overall team action, but Lee has gone from Top 10 guy to sleeper status in the matter of weeks. Evans has a nice match-up against the Jets this weekend, and they will need to get him the ball, or at least throw his was upwards of 15 times to have a chance in this one. Trent Edwards may be a rookie, but he’s well polished, and will give Evans a chance to have a nice day.

Joey Galloway: Joey is hardly a sleeper, but still not starting for many teams out there. The Panthers have been a very bad defensive team, even with all those solid players in that secondary. The confidence seems shot in Carolina, and even that mean defensive front hasn’t gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Look for Joey to get deep and Jeff to throw it as far as he can – right into Joey’s little hands.

Greg Olsen: Regardless of who throws him the ball this weekend, it seems like Greg Olsen will be open and ready to catch it. He looked decent last week against Dallas, and this week Detroit hosts the Bears. They have a bad secondary. Olsen will collect his first touchdown.

Packers DST: The Vikings… With Kelly Holcomb at quarterback? This should be interesting. It will be a low scoring affair, but the Packers are good enough to gather an early lead and force Holcomb to throw. They’ll take advantage of that.

LUCKY’S Week 4 Bench Riders

Peyton Manning: I know, you’re not sitting Peyton, but I don’t think he’ll have a Manning-esque game this week against Denver. Joseph Addai will get lots of touches, and the solid Broncos secondary will keep Peyton honest. Overall, Manning has always been a take what you get guy, and the Colts could run Addai all day long. If you are expecting 20 points from Manning, you will be surprised.

Larry Johnson: Just another week or two, Larry, and then you’ll at least have a chance. Right now, it’s the Chargers front 7, a scary unit – and against you, they’ll be the Chargers front 9 – good luck with that.

Edgerrin James: Last week it was Baltimore, this week it’s the new-look Steelers. Ken Whisenhunt would love to take home a win from this one, but I don’t see it happening. Pittsburgh shut down a very good rushing attack from San Francisco last week, and I don’t think the Cardinals will fair much better. That means another week on the Bench Riders for the Edge.

Marvin Harrison: Nobody will sit Marvin, but they should. I have a feeling that Champ Bailey will get the Marv assignment, and Harrison’s night will be limited because of it.

Algae Crumpler: There will be no time for Harrington to get the ball to his tight end, and the short pass will be heavily guarded by a nice set of linebackers and safeties. Overall, I think Crump’s day will be very average at best.

Fantasy Football Tear Jerkers – Week 4

Fantasy Football Know-It-All

My goodness, I’m not positive (for weed) but I’m pretty sure Travis Henry is going to have a few people shedding tears in fantasy football this week, and not because he’s going to tear up the Chargers defense. Oh no. How absolutely mentally ill can some cats be? What is with the youth today? I’ve had enough, but here are your tear jerkers for Week 4.

Donovan McNabb: I’m not sure who to blame, but McNabb has a lot of talent to be scoring 3 freaking fantasy points. It’s a shame they don’t give quarterbacks negative rushing yards for sacks, because if they did, he would have had at least -30 rushing yards, and he could have been on the hook for zero fantasy points. Either way, McNabb isn’t getting it done for my team, and I’m imagining, that despite last week’s performance against Detroit, you’re not too impressed with the guy, either.

Darrell Jackson: D-Jack continues to be unimpressive on a weekly basis. Nice. Was this cat just the product of being the #1 receiver in Seattle’s offense? Or is it possible that Alex Smith and the 49ers offense needs Norv Turner that bad? I don’t know, but if Alex continues to play poorly when he gets back, and Norv continues to blow all that talent in San Diego, I’m pretty sure Turner could get “job-backs” and head back to Northern California. Isn’t it terrible when a move hurts so many people. If only the Chargers Brass would have kept Marty around.

Marc Bulger: “Mr. Marc “Underrated, everyone should pick him over McNabb” Bulger hasn’t had a very good entry to 2007, and I’m not sure if it’s going to get much brighter from here. Bulger had -2 fantasy points in Week 3, and looked Terrible, with a capital T. Another starting lineman down, and that makes 3 backups for Bulger, who is a very stationary quarterback. Think, one of those British soldier guys that never move all day long. Well, Bulger needs to improve if the Rams want to be anything close to what they were last year, and keep themselves out of the NFC West cellar.” (Me, last week) As you can see, Marc Bulger isn’t a first time offender either. Yes, this underrated man has been doing some poorly rated things. He did get better than last week, putting up 2 fantasy points, but I don’t think that’s good enough. He got benched, so I have a hard time seeing him outscoring 2 next week – he’ll stick to his two-week average, though.

Tatum Bell: “Bell was supposed to be Mike Martz’ new Marshall Faulk, and Kevin Jones was supposed to have a hard time finding playing time when he returned from injuries.” (Me, last week) As you can see, this isn’t a first time offense for Mr. Bell. As it turns out, Mike Shanahan wasn’t just trying to squash Bell’s career, he just isn’t as good a player as you would think he should be. Well, Tear Jerker central, Tatum is riding the train.

Terrell Owens: I have a feeling you won’t see TO here too many times this season. It was as if TO and Tony Romo got together and said, “Lets show teams that Patrick can do dirty work, so I’ll stop getting double covered,” and bingo, TO gets 3 fantasy points while Crayton goes off the deep end, torching fantasy football for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. Well, TO made fantasy owners cringe last week, as his antics didn’t win many fantasy match-ups.

Ravens Defense: Not only have the Ravens sucked when it comes to putting points on the board and winning games against easy teams, but their defense has been average at best. Last week, against a very mediocre Browns team, the Big Bad Ravens D totaled a humungous 4 fantasy points. Nice work, now tell me they weren’t worth a 5th round pick… C’mon, tell me. They are so good, they are definitely worth that high of a selection. Defenses… Hahaha…

Chris Chambers: I’d blame Trent Green but, well, hell – it’s Trent Green’s fault that Chambers didn’t do jack against the Raiders, but I’m putting the up and down wideout up here because I’m sick of everyone telling me that he’s been so good this year. Expect more crappy games, and less of those nice, incredible, 100 yard outings. Trent is brutal, and he’s even older than I am – okay, not true, but he’s almost old enough for me to have picked on him as a kid.

(Also considered; -Todd Heap (3pts), Matt Leinart (3pts), Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett (2pts a peice), Steve Smith (he’d be on the main list – 2pts – but I saw a little of that game, and he’s already mad enough that David Carr can’t get him the ball, it’s not his fault) and Jerious Norwood (I blame Patrino for that last one, what a dope)

Week 4 College Football Picks Review: 2007

Can I post yet another winning handful of picks in Week 4? Another week, another winner. Sure, I was only 3-2, but 60% isn’t bad, now is it? Yes, that’s a winning number, and if you put up the cash, you might just find that 60% makes you money. This is the path on took to 3 wins and two losses.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Florida Gators (-23) @ Mississippi Rebels: (loss)
Florida barely pulled this one out, and a 23 point cover was completely out of the question by the time this one got through the first few minutes. Overall, Ole Miss played well, but even in their bad days, the Gators look unbeatable. I get a loss.

Duke Blue Devils @ Navy Midshipmen (-12): (loss)
Duke covered again, making me rethink my use of my old gimmie pick. Duke always use to be a crappy loser that I could rely on to give me a much needed win. Not this week, that’s for sure.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7) @ Arkansas Razorbacks: (win)
“The truth of the matter is, I think Andre’ Woodson is special, like Darren McFadden special, except the difference here is, Woodson is a quarterback, and in College Football, I’ll take a talented team with a special QB over a talented squad with a top notch RB. I think Kentucky has more balance, and therefore will win this game. You’ve got to like the points, too.” (me) Arkansas looked good, but in the end, their run-heavy attack just wasn’t enough. When Dick needed to come out and get his offense going, the Razorbacks struggled. On the other hand, when the Wildcats needed a big play, Woodson did his damage.

Michigan State Spartans (-12) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (win)
This one didn’t start off good for me, and I was thinking, DAMN! But then the real Fighting Irish stood right up and the Michigan State Spartans of all teams just straight took it to the Irish. Notre Dame is bad, folks, and I don’t know if its getting much better any time soon.

Arizona Wildcats @ California Golden Bears (-16): (win)
Once again, the Bears just barely pulled out a cover in this one. I’m tired of watching Cal come out and stomp teams and think, “Ha, I’ve got this one in the bag,” before allowing lesser teams right back in the game to where I think “Ha, freaking Cal, at it again,” and then either barely covering to give me some heart relief, or just blowing the spread all together and making me want to write bad things about them all week long.

2006 Fantasy Football Review – Week 4

This Week’s Top Team: Lets see how Mr. Lester did. 130 Fantasy Points…. Not too shabby.

QB: Donovan McNabb: D-Nabb had 4 touchdowns (2 passing, 2 running) for 20 points on touchdowns along. He had 47 yards rushing for 4 points, and 288 yards passing for 11 points. Add those up and you get a stud tallying 35 fantasy points. Nice.

RB: Brian Westbrook: Westy didn’t play, and right before the game I switched him with Brian Westbrook because he was my only option. Not the best option but, Correll had 498 yards rushing and 39 yards receiving for 7 points. Better than notta.

RB: Larry Johnson: Grandma-ma only went for 1 score, but his 100 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards gave him 20 points on the week.

WR: Chris Chambers: Chambers continues to dissapoint, just like the rest of the Dolphins, as Miami lost to Houston. Chris got a late touchdown, though, and his 14 yards rushing, 28 yards receiving, and one touchdown got me 9 whole points.

WR: Steve Smith: Stevey dialed up 87 yards receiving and 1 touchdown against the Saints. I expected more, but, 16 points will do just fine.
TE: Ben Watson: watson only had 1 catch for 35 yards, yet another reason why the Patriots make me sick. 3 points for me.

K: Jeff Wilkins: Once again, Wilkins nutted up and got me some much needed points. His three 40-yarders, one 19-yarder, and three extra points rolled me 18 fantasy points… from a kicker. Damn.

D: Cowboys: The ‘Boys had their best defensive performance of the season, tallying 22 points for my squad. 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 4 forced fumbles brought me another big game out of my D.


Charlie Frye: Frye’s 3 touchdowns helped out his early turnovers to the tune of 15 fantasy points, out producing Tom Brady, Drew Bledsoe, Mike Vick, and Jake Delhomme among others.

Kevin Jones: Jonesy tied for 3rd in the league with 21 fantasy points. A 4.3 yard per rush average, 93 yards and two scores did him well. Good little sleeper.

Julius Jones: Jonesy number 2 roared as well, tallying 18 points after 122 yards rushing and a touchdown.

Braylon Edwards: Braylon had a decent day, 6 catches for 75 yards, but without a score, he wasn’t the best play around.

Reggie Brown: Reggie ended up getting hurt as well, after a slow start. Not a good play.

Eric Johnson: Eric Johnson had a fantasy point. That wasn’t so hot.

Jaguars DST: Jacksonville fell asleep on defense, allowing 36 points to the Skins, 18 to Santana Moss alone. Not a good week for my bottom half sleepers.


Kurt Warner: And by the 4th quarter, Warner as a starting presence in the NFL was no more. Hope you took my advice.

Thomas Jones: T Jones impressed me with a nice game against the Hawks. Or maybe Seattle just depressed me with the worst game I’ve ever seen them play. Jones had 98 yards, and two touchdowns. The was the 3rd highest scoring runner. Not a wussy!

Chad Johnson: Chad didn’t have great numbers, that’s for sure. He had 60 yards receiving as the Patriots handled the Bengals easily.

Reuben Droughns: Reub had 12 fantasy points, which is a nice performance for him this year. 100 rushing, 20 receving. I was wrong about this one.

Free Football Picks 06-07 Week 4

After a stunningly poor performance by the Falcons on Monday Night Football, I recorded my first losing week of the season. 6-7-1 isn’t any way to exert my football expertise, but I still rest above .500 after 3 weeks have passed, and with a solid week 4, I’ll be head and shoulders above the rest.Arizona Cardinals (+8) at Atlanta Falcons: At first site, I was taking the Falcons all the way in this one, but history tells me I should head another direction. Last season, after losing to a Packer team that had no right to be on the same field as Atlanta, the Falcons finished the season 2-5 and out of the playoffs. Obviously I haven’t given the Saints enough street cred, but Atlanta’s psyche has to be tortured after Monday’s hideous performance. Arizona can put up offensive numbers, and the Falcons often struggle with offensive football teams. These facts have me taking Arizona.

Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) at Tennessee Titans: The TO fiasco brings all types of feelings into the game in Tennessee. I really think this is good for the Cowboys though, if that sounds weird let me explain. All year, the Boys have been waiting for TO to saddle up so they could ride him to the Super Bowl. Now that he’s on medical watch, they’ll just have to get right down to business and use the talent and football know-how they’ve got. TO or not. Dallas should kill a lesser Titan squad.

Indianapolis Colts (-9) at N.Y. Jets: The Colts didn’t play awesome football against the Jags last week, yet they still took the win. This week, they should play better against a Jet team that isn’t as good as their record shows. The Colts are just about 20 Tetris levels above the Jets. New York will still put up some points, but Peyton, Marvin, Reggie and company should find wide open spaces in that Jet defense.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Houston Texans: Miami is much better than they’ve played. Obviously all of the Super Bowl sleeper talk everyone was whispering to start the season was a little bit much, but Miami will start to gel, and maybe even Daunte “Baby Hands” Culpepper will remember how to hold a football. When that happens, and as Mark Brunell showed last week, there’s now better week to remember how to throw a football than when you play Texas, the Dolphins will begin their run to dethrone the Patriots hold on the AFC East.

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) at Buffalo BIlls: The Bills have played solid football over the first three weeks only 1 win to show for it. JP Losman is getting better, and Willis McGahee has turned into a yardage machine, but this week at home against the Vikings, they’ll be in for a treat. Minnesota’s defense is much better than any of the three teams they’ve faced thus far. If I know one thing, it’s that young quarterbacks, sans Charlie Frye, struggle mightily against top defenses. The Vikings will shut down the Bill rushing attack, making Losman beat them. I don’t think JP can do that. The Vikings will win this game.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-7): The Saints will struggle emotionally after their huge victory over the Falcons on Monday Night Football in their first home game since Hurricane Katrina. As much as they were pumped to play on Monday, they’ll be exhausted on Sunday against a Carolina team that will only get better as the season moves forward. Steve Smith is back, and the Panther defense remains sturdy. I don’t like the touchdown difference, but I’ve got to take the Panthers here.

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (+3): After nearly getting had by the lowly Cleveland Browns, the Ravens will do all they can to attack first year starter, Phillip Rivers, early and often on Sunday morning. If the Ravens can disrupt Rivers, while limiting LaDainian Tomlinson’s effectiveness early, both things I think they’ll do, they should get out to a lead early. I don’t think Rivers is ready to come back from an early deficit, so I’ve got to take the Ravens at home in this one. I still can’t believe they are underdogs.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs: The 49ers will never quit, and so this game should remain close throughout. Trent Green is out another week, so the Chiefs will once again rely on career backup Damon Huard for their quarterbacking needs. Larry Johnson will definitely score his first touchdown of the season, but don’t expect a high scoring game in Kansas City. Herman Edwards likes to pound it out on the ground. The Chiefs are limited without Green at quarterback. And the 49ers just flat out don’t score often. A close game means take the dog and all those points.

Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (-5): After nearly upsetting the Hawks in Week 1, the Lions have deteriorated swiftly, taking form into the Lions of old. Offensively, Detroit is improving, but defensively, they are eroding into a porous sieved. Yes, they are stopping nothing. Not even the Packers. The Rams haven’t looked great, but their passing attack looks improved, and their rushing game is still strong. Defensively, they run around well, and make plays. Against the Lions, that means turnovers. Turnovers mean points, and the Rams will take advantage of all that meaning. Take St. Louis at home in this one.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders: Until proven otherwise, I have to take anyone playing the Raiders, especially an improving Browns team that has really played pretty well for a team with an 0-3 record. The Raiders suck, so don’t expect them to be the first team of the two to record a win. I’m not sure if Andrew Walter’s 30% completion percentage is the improvement everyone thinks it is in Oakland. It’s not Aaron Brooks’ fault that the coaching staff doesn’t know their lips from their man-tits. I don’t mean to be vulgar, but Art Shell has a nice C-cup, and his offensive coordinators look as though they’ve been coaching high school soccer for the last 10 years. This team is bad.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Washington Redskins: The Jaguars showed the world how good they could be when they dominated the time of possession and ran all over the Colts in the first quarter of last weeks game. Then they promptly began to suck it up on route to losing the game. Jacksonville is nearing the end of a very difficult opening schedule, as they’ll head home next week after playing the Redskins on Sunday. Jacksonville will be 3-1, and on their way to big things. Washington hasn’t showed me they can play good football against anyone besides the Houston Texans. And like I always say, everyone looks good in practice, which is basically what playing the Texans is like. Brunell won’t be breaking any records this week, let me assure you of that. Take the Jags, because they are much better than the Skins.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5): The Bengals are the best team in football right now. When Carson Palmer starts throwing the ball to Chad Johnson, the Bengals will be sick. Until then they’ll just have to settle for the #1 spot in my rankings. I don’t know how the Patriots plan on winning this game. Their offense is pathetic this season, defensively, they aren’t even dreaming of stopping Palmer and the Bengals, and special teams doesn’t give them an advantage either. Soon the Patriots are going to have to pay someone besides Tom Brady and Richard Seymour. Losing Branch was huge, much bigger than his 998 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns looks on paper. The Bengals in a blowout. Pats 2-2 with wins against Buffalo and New York… Ah…. Feels good.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Chicago Bears: People are writing the Hawks off because Shaunna Alexander is OUT. Come one folks, Maurice Morris causes just as much concern as a starting back. Not because of his running ability, because obviously Shaun is the superior runner, but because of his pass catching prowess. Mo Morris can catch the ball and explode up field. His quickness should help the Hawks superior receiving corps look like the greatest show in the NFC against a supposedly tough Bears defense. Watch the Hawks surprise the NFL on way to 4-0.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-11): The Packers are 0-8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. The Pack is 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. On the other hand, the Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 2-7 ATS when playing opponents with a losing record. This game will be one more win for the Packers. Eleven points are a ton, if the Eagles were playing any team but the Packers. After getting a W last week, the Packers will have a Monday Night hangover in Philadelphia. McNabb and the Eagles should run the Pack out of town.

Week 4 College Football Picks Review: 2006

I can’t even say how many games I lost… Hell, I’m still counting. Take a look below and fight through the horror to review my Week 4 in NCAA Football.

USC Trojans (-20) @ Arizona Wildcats: The Trojans didn’t do enough to cover. I had a push until a field goal in the 4th did me in. But it’s not like USC had this game locked away either, 3-0 at the half, 10-0 after 3, it was a close one. My first pick, my first loss.

Troy Trojans (+21) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers: So much for a fight. The Trojans laid down and just took it from the Cornhuskers, 56-0. This was one of those games you feel sorry for the team you bet on. That doesn’t happen much for me. Loss numero two-o.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-2): Those one point losses make me feel like crying. My 3rd in a tough Saturday came when the Razorbacks gave up a touchdown in the 4th quarter to send the game into overtime. In OT, Arkansas kicked their extra point, the Tide didn’t, and I lost for the third time in as many attempts.

Boston College Eagles (-6.5) @ North Carolina State: The Eagles learned to lose last Saturday in North Carolina. The Wolfpack scored two touchdowns in the 2nd half to win their 2nd and lose me my 4th.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4) @ Michigan State Spartans: Notre Damn didn’t cover, and somehow they won, call it luck of the jackasses that never cover when lucky lester bets on them… Freaking Irish.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+29) @ Oklahoma Sooners: This was a destruction process. MTSU got handled by the Sooners. Oklahmoa is finaly getting it, just in time to blow me out of the water. 6 losses in 6 games.

Florida International Golden Panthers (+19) @ Maryland Terrapins: Thank God for being right about one game. I was on the money here, as FLINT gave Maryland a run, coming up just short, but winning me some much needed cash.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Bulldogs (-26): Got destroyed on this one…. The Buffs put all their cash into one game, and it just happened to be this one. Georgia won a nail biter, 14-13. I lost.

Washington State Cougars (-9.5) @ Stanford Cardinal: The Cougs stomped the Cardinal, bringing Stanford’s record to 0-4. That leaves UW and WSU at 3-1 on the season. Crazy man!

Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: After halftime, I must admit, I was a little worried. 28 2nd Half points got me, and the Buckeyes, the W. Whew.

Arizona State Sun Devils @ California Bears (-7): Like it always is, this game was a blowout. My Bears outplayed the Sun Devils to the tune of 49-21. And I got a much needed win. 4 wins is better than none, but this 4-7 week put me in the dumps. Check out my Week 5 picks, they’re bound to be better.

Week 4 College Football Picks Review

College Football Pick’em
I took 10 games and picked half of them right on the button. LSU’s big tumble on Monday night took me to an even .500. So I’m getting better at this college stuff … I had some tough games to pick. I highlighted my losses in red and my wins in blue to make it easier for everyone. Follow my review to see where I turned right, and of course where I turned left.

Michigan (-2.5) @ Wisconsin – Wolverines 20 – Badgers 23. This one broke my heart. The Badgers have been making money for me all season, and I let them down. They won again, taking the Michigan Wolverines out of the AP Top 25 for the first time in 7 years. Crazy. Michigan will get back in by seasons’ end. As for now, those tough Badgers and Brian Calhoun are undefeated. Kudos to Barry Alverez for getting his kids ready week in and week out.

Tennessee @ LSU (-6.5) – Volunteers 30 – Tigers 27. Just as I had imagined the LSU Tigers came out with a passion. After the first half of play the Tigers had built a 21-0 lead on the Vols, who lost their starting quarterback after a tough tackle in the back of the end zone. After half the Tigers just didn’t get the bounces. Momentum changed teams, as he often does, and the Tennessee Volunteers tied the game late in the 4th quarter. LSU had a chance to win the game with a late field goal, but their time management was piss. The field goal unit wasn’ t even set when time ran out. Overtime was quick, the Tigers kicked a field goal… and after two tough stops on the 1 yard line, Riggs ran in for the score. LSU was too excited early, and it caught up with them late. Another loss evened me out at .500 for the week.

USC (-22) @ Oregon – Trojans 45 – Ducks 13. My prediction called for a 34 point differential and the final was 32. The ducks tried to trick USC in the beginning, playing well enough to be up 3 at the half. But the Trojans wouldn’t be had. Reggie Bush is the best player in the Nation, hands down. The Trojans have their toughest game of the year next week in Arizona. USC got me a much needed win after a scarry first half.

Notre Dame (-13.5) – Washington – Irish 36 – Huskies 17. I was a little off, but in the end the Fighting Irish won the game without much difficulty. The Huskies held on the a chance much later than I had expected, but the Irish got me another win, taking the Huskies by 19. Charlie Weis is a good football coach!

North Carolina @ North Carolina State (-10) – Tar Heels 31 – Wolfpack 24. How about them Tar Heels? I’m Carolina blue, through and through, so this lost felt as good on the inside as it hurt the check book outside. The Wolfpack just aren’t the team I thought they’d be. The Heels will play tough with anybody. Look for a big upset later in the season. The Wolfpack couldn’t get me a victory, but a Carolina upset at NC State is much much sweeter!

TCU (+3.5) @ BYU – TCU 51 – BYU 50. This game was too close for comfort. I was covering my eyes like a little girl at the end of Titanic. Subsequently all men, young and old alike, also are closing their eyes at the end of that movie. After three overtimes the TCU horned Frogs came out the victors, giving me another win on the day.

Western Michigan(-3.5) @ Temple – WM 19 – Temple 16. Ahhh…. Those damned Temple Owls. This is the second week in a row they lost when I bet against them. This also marks the second week in a row I didn’t win any money off them. This week was one worse than last, they didn’t cause a push, but covered the spread by a half point. Thanks. Another loss out of Temple, another loss for Lucky.

Boston College (+3) @ Clemson – Eagles 16 – Tigers 13. “The Boston College Eagles have another tough test against Clemson. BC has shown over the last few years, that they play well in bounce back games. This week should be no different.” (me) This game was everything I thought it would be. My prediction called for a 3 point game. The Final difference was 3 for my BC Eagles. This was a huge win for the Eagles who played without starting quarterback Quentin Porter. Another win for me!

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-11) – G-Tech 7 – V-Tech 51. Reggie Ball was back in action, but that didn’t help the hopeless Yellow Jackets. The Hokies got 21 combined points from defense and special teams. Marcus Vick showed he could be a consistant pocket passer, completing 13-18 for 223 yards. The Hokies didn’t have great offensive numbers, but they didn’t need to, as their defense brought ruckus all game long.

Iowa (+7) @ Ohio State – Hawkeyes 6 – Buckeyes 31. Before this Saturday, Heisman Hopeful Ted Ginn Jr. hadn’t shown me the greatness everyone predicted from him. Nothing has changed. Ginn caught three passes for thirty yards. On the other hand, new starting quarterback Troy Smith looked like an All American, throwing for just under 200 yards while rushing for 127. The Buckeyes destroyed Iowa in every aspect of the game. So much for what I said. The Buckeyes gave me my 4th Saturday loss on the week.

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 4

Welcome to week four. Lucky Lester has identified trends and expects to improve his already gaudy 25-18-3 record with some enticing match ups this week. You can read my review of how the previous week played out against my picks. 

I’m taking 4 teams this week for my Super Picks and they look like good bets. Perhaps this is the week that Granny gets her house back!

The Titans (-3) @ Chargers: Titans don’t lose a lot with back up Billy Volek subbing for McNair. Volek passed for almost 300 yards in his last outing. Running back Chris Brown looks like an elite performer. San Diego’s anemic passing attack provides little support for superstar LaDaineian Tomlinsom. Game Date: 10/03/04 16:15 ET
The Rams(-3.5) @ 49ers: Lucky has consistently maintained that the 49ers will be fortunate to win a single game. Rams QB Mark Bulger will put up huge numbers because the 49ers lack the ability to pressure him. Receivers Holt and Bruce cannot be covered for very long. Game Date: 10/03/04 20:35 ET

Chiefs@ Ravens(-5.5): The chiefs cannot be happy about going to Baltimore, they match up poorly with the Ravens. The Ravens ferocious defense will contain Priest Holmes, the Ravens running back Jamal Lewis should rumble for at least 200 yards against the Chiefs pitiful run defense. Game Date: 10/04/04 21:05 ET
Saints (-3) @ Cardinals: Saints QB Aaron Brooks should find success against the Cardinals 27th ranked defense. Aaron Stecker, playing for the injured Deuce McAllister, had over a hundred yards rushing last week. Game Date: 10/03/04 16:05 ET
Lucky Lester’s Picks For Week Four

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5): Steelers will take advantage of Carson Palmers tendency to turn the ball over, and will control the game on the ground with running back Duce Staley. Cincinnati defense is the second to last unit in the league. Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Giants (+7) @ Packers: Take the generous point spread against this Packer team that has huge injury concerns on defense. Their defensive backfield is a mess and they can’t stop the run either. Kurt Warner seems born again and is playing with confidence. Warner will burn the blitz-happy Packer defense.
Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Redskins (-3) @ Browns: Both offenses are sputtering, so take the much better defense with a small point outlay here. Clinton Portis should have a field day against the Browns struggling defense.
Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Colts (-3.5) @ Jaguars: This is the big game of the day, matching the undefeated Jaguars against the Colts offensive juggernaut. Three and a half seems like a small price to pay for this Colt team that is firing on all cylinders. The good young Jaguar defense will play hard but Jacksonville’s inability to score will make the difference.
Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Eagles (-9) @ Bears: New Bears quarterback Jonathan Quinn could not face a tougher first opponent. The Eagles varied blitz packages will make his life miserable. The Eagles McNabb is having an MVP like season, and should find Terrel Owens for several scores. The Bears are missing three starters in the defensive backfie.
Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Patriots (-5.5) @ Bills: New England will dominate the Bills sub par offensive line. Patriots will be in Bledsoe’s face all day. Bledsoe’s limited mobility, and that’s being kind, will once again result in numerous sacks. Tom Brady will find enough openings in a good Bills defense to secure a victory. Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Raiders (-2.5) @ Texans: Raiders are a better team with the strong-armed Collins at quarterback. Their young receivers are speedy and excel in the vertical passing game. The Texans are missing their best offensive performer, Domanick Davis.
Game Date: 10/03/04 13:00 ET

Falcons @ Panthers (-3.5): The Falcons Michael Vick appears confused running his new West Coast offense. The Panthers awesome front four should contain and frustrate him. Carolina running back DeShaun Foster showed last week that he is more than capable of getting the job done. Game Date: 10/03/04 16:05 ET

Broncos (-3) @ Buccaneers: Three points seems a small amount to lay for the Broncos against the winless Buccaneers. The Buccaneers offense has been terrible and should pose no threat to the tough top rated Bronco defense. Game Date: 10/03/04 16:15 ET

Jets (-6) @ Dolphins: Dolphins switch quarterbacks again in a futile effort to score some points, dolphins need turnovers to stay in the game and the Jets Pennington won’t oblige.
Game Date: 10/03/04 16:15 ET

Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester