Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 4

Now that the bye week season is upon us, there are 14 NFL games to choose from. I’m giving my elite package 7 games and showing 7 free picks to my readers that just want the free stuff. Week 4 has loads of tight lines and some big time games, like Monday Night’s big showdown in Cincinnati. Check out my free picks, and if you are interested in my Elite Package, let us know.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

I’m afraid of this game, because I’m not sure the Raiders can stop Ronnie Brown, and I’m almost positive that the Dolphins can’t stop any rushing attack starring a guy under 40 years old with 5 lineman of college experience or better. However, Miami has more riding on this game, with Cam Cameron yet to pull a victory out of his new team. With him done playing games with Ronnie Brown, and Trent Green starting to figure out Marty Booker and Chris Chambers better, I just have a gut feeling that the Dolphins take this game by a touchdown. However, there’s the Daunte Culpepper factor for the Raiders, which really makes me want to steer clear of this game. How bad does he want to beat the Dolphins? If I were a betting man, and I had to pick this game, I would wager with the home team – but as a former player, I know how much hatred can raise your game. My advice, steer clear from this one, but if you must, take the Fins.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Believe it or not, I like the Lions in this one. I don’t know if they are the popular pick or what, but I don’t know why everyone thinks that Brian Griese is going to save the Bears. He may play well in this one, but even with a decent day from Mr. Griese, I don’t think the Bears can stop the Lions’ passing attack enough to keep up with Detroit. Chicago’s secondary isn’t very good anyway, and with all the injuries in Chicago, it’s beginning to look even uglier. No Tommie Harris, no Mike Brown, no Lance Briggs, no Mike Ditka. It’s all getting much clearer now. The question is, if Brian can’t perform against Detroit’s secondary, will Rexxy get another shot? My fantasy team sure hopes so.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Houston Texans to take it to the Falcons. Even with Ahman Green and Andre Johnson on the sidelines, the Texans’ broken receiving corps and second tier running back situation will still be able to take advantage of the Falcons defense. Matt Schaub will be tossing the ball around against his old team, and how bad do you think he wants to win this game? More than a few people know that he was the best quarterback in Atlanta over the last couple of seasons, and he wasn’t smoking weed or killing dogs. Anyway, I’m done with that Vick business, all I know is that Schaub will make the Falcons wish they had kept him, even more-so than they already do.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Steelers have looked unbeatable. They don’t allow points. Their aggressive defense is legit. Willie Parker is a beast. Ben Roethlisberger is back to “doing the right thing” and limiting his mistakes. Santonio Holmes is a nice deep threat and Nate Washington will do a fine job replacing Hines Ward’s absence while Cedrick Wilson will also contribute. I don’t think Kurt Warner will surprise the Steelers like he did the Ravens – so don’t expect that guy to lead a second half comeback. Tomlin’s boys look good – a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS to start the season would look even better.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-11.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 1:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

That’s a lot of points to cover for a team who hasn’t looked like even a lesser version of last years’ offense, but I think it’ll all come around this week for the Chargers. God knows that the Chiefs don’t have the weapons to put up points, so its not like the Chargers will have to score 35 to cover. Three touchdowns and a field goal, and this game will be an absolute wrap. San Diego’s defense has underperformed while their offense hasn’t shown anything Norv Turner-esque. Expect that to change next week when LT steels the show at home against Larry Johnson. Yes, stop Larry and you stop the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos (+11) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5-Dimes)

I just don’t like the Colts to cover big spreads against run-heavy teams. Tennessee gave them trouble, because like usual, they don’t have the bulk to stop defense in short yardage instances. Travis Henry has beasted the Colts before, no doubt about that. Jay Cutler will be able to take advantage of the Colts deep, and Henry and that famous Denver offensive line will be able to keep the ball long enough to cover that 11 point spread. Plus, Denver’s secondary will force the Colts to run early and often, meaning there will be very few quick scores in this one. Long drives means a close game – so I’ll take the 11 points and Denver.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Until the Patriots prove that they aren’t the best team to ever play the game, I will be taking them and any spread Vegas throws at them. They have shown an ability to shut down key offensive players, eliminate entire rushing attacks, and put up points like they’re scrimmaging against air. The Bengals defense can’t stop anyone, and while Carson, Chad, and TJ are as talented as any WR/QB trio in the league, they can’t win this game by themselves. The Patriots have scored 38 in each game this year. They’ve given up no more than 14. They are the team to beat in the NFL.

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